The non-conference schedule has usually been relatively "soft" and the Bears finish 10-2 or 9-3. This season the OOC schedule is tougher. The 13-game schedule has potentially six teams that are formidable opponents. Those teams are (IMO) are Gonzaga (A), Auburn (H), Alabama (H), Michigan State (N), Vandy or Arizona (N), Xavier (H) or Temple (H). I'm assuming that Cal will play Fordham in the opener and not have to face both Xavier & Temple.

Cal fans should find out quickly whether we have a competitive team in 2024-25 or not. I don't have a clue with only five players returning...Eight new scholarship players will join the team. Then, the Bears begin conference play in the ACC.

I like it. A balance of tough teams that will get us battle-ready and cupcakes that will boost our win/loss record and give bench players minutes.

SFCALBear72 said:

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Schedule includes 5 teams who participated in the 2024 NCAA Tournament: Michigan State, Alabama, Gonzaga, Vanderbilt and Arizona.

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The 13-game schedule has potentially six teams that are formidable opponents. Those teams are (IMO) are Gonzaga (A), Auburn (H), Alabama (H), Michigan State (N), Vandy or Arizona (N), Xavier (H) or Temple (H). I'm assuming that Cal will play Fordham in the opener and not have to face both Xavier & Temple.

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Obviously, teams change from year to year, and with the transfer portal, the changes are more dramatic. But here are last season's win-loss records and NET rankings for every possible opponent on Cal's non-conference schedule, according to the NCAA. (I realize Cal would play Vanderbilt OR Arizona, but not both, and two of Xavier, Temple, and Fordham.)

Saint Mary's: 12-18 overall, 4-10 road, NET 208
Idaho State: 10-19 overall, 2-12 road, NET 225
San Jose State: 6-24 overall, 3-9 home, NET 287
Gonzaga: 32-4 overall, 16-0 home, NET 14
Grambling: 20-10 overall, 10-7 road, NET 220
Auburn: 20-12 overall, 5-7 road, NET 47
Michigan State: 22-9 overall, 3-3 neutral, NET 22
Vanderbilt: 23-10 overall, 3-2 neutral, NET 55
Arizona: 18-16 overall, 4-4 neutral, NET 37
Alabama: 24-10 overall, 6-5 road, NET 30
Pacific: 18-15 overall, 11-5 home, NET 140
Austin Peay: 15-15 overall, 6-8 road, NET 189
Xavier: 1-27 overall, 0-13 road, NET 321
Temple: 20-12 overall, 8-4 road, NET 92
Fordham: 10-17 overall, 2-10 road, NET 180

In that non-conference schedule, it appears there are:

. 8 easy wins (against teams with NET of 90-321 with five with NET of 208 or worse).
. 3 toss up/can win (against teams with NET of 30-47).
. 2 tough games (against teams with NET of 22 and 14).

Fortunately, we do not play any non conference games against teams with NET of 13 or better.

A 10-3 non conference record would be a reasonable expectation.

Go Bears!

I did not know that Xavier was 1-27 last season. Maybe Cal will face them in the opener. I don't know how Temple (20-12) received such a low net ranking of 92. It appears that Vandy was left out with a net of 55. There would be four toss ups and two tough games for a total of six games that could go either way. I certainly don't know how calbears80 concludes a 10-3 non-conference record would be reasonable. As I originally stated, six games look to be difficult: three SEC opponents, Michigan State, Gonzaga & Arizona. If Cal cannot score 70 points against strong teams-they could end out 8-5 in pre-ACC action. I am worried that the Bear's offense will not be as good as last year when they averaged 66.18 ppg.

The reason that expecting a 10-3 non-conference record is reasonable is that:
. 8 of our games are at home and two are on neutral court.
. 8 of our games are against teams with Net of 90-321 including five against teams with NET of 208 or worse.
. 2 of the games are against teams with NET of 47 and 37.
. None of the 3 remaining games are against elite teams with NET of 13 or better.

If we expect progress by being one of the 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament , expecting a10-3 non-conference record is reasonable.

Go Bears!

What category did you put Vandy, an NCAA Tournament team from the SEC? They had a net ranking of 55. This is the team that makes three toss-up games plus two tough ones for a total of five. The five NCAA Tournament teams should fit the definition of formidable foes [ Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Gonzaga & Arizona] plus Auburn (SEC) with a net ranking of 47 for a half dozen.

Cal only plays two of the good teams at home, one on the road and two on a neutral court. Bears will only play Arizona or Vandy in Palm Springs so, in reality, there are only five difficult games to play. You are assuming that the Bears only lose 3 against teams that had superior records last season. It's a coin toss to predict the outcomes right now. GO BEARS!