A one-game scout

1,635 Views | 24 Replies | Last: 27 days ago by Bear8995
ClayK
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So I just don't have the time to go to any games, or watch that many, but I do see as many as I can. The Michigan State game was my first look at this year's team, and here are some (small sample size + stats) thoughts.

*There isn't a point guard on the roster. Charmin was reduced to having Krimili and Suarez bring the ball up because Kayla Williams, the nominal point, is 30/28 A/TO.

And Michigan State was loaded with quick, aggressive guards and Williams couldn't do anything on either end of the court. A quickness deficit will kill you unless you are dominant inside, and though Onyiah was very good, she's a foul machine and is unlikely to play a full game against a quality team.

*Marta Suarez. She's a good shooter. She's a terrible ballhandler (12/24 A/TO), slow and a mediocre, at best, defender. The fact that she had to bring the ball up is a clear indication Cal has no guards. You can blame Charmin, but Charmin knows the game and sees her players in practice. Suarez, from that perspective, is a better choice (in part because of who's guarding her) than more traditional ballhandlers.

The fact that Suarez is such a key part of Cal's team shows that the talent level isn't where it should be to compete at a high level. If she were the first player off the bench, or the fifth best starter, you've got something.

*Michelle Onyiah. Better this year than last. Credit must be given to the staff for her steady improvement. That said, she doesn't play smart and doesn't, apparently, understand that there are times she has to avoid contact and let the other team score. Very athletic, good inside and would be a real asset if surrounded by shooters and a couple of good ballhandlers.

*Lulu Twidale. She can shoot it. Seriously shoot it. Good form, quick release. But clearly Charmin doesn't trust her to bring the ball up or handle the ball in the halfcourt. 17/19 A/TO -- and note that Cal has played enough bad teams that the A/TO should be better for all players.

Twidale is a legit shooting wing on a good team, but needs a real PG to unlock her full potential.

*Ioanna Krimili. Nice player. I like her better with hair. Good shooter, smart, with a future pro career in Europe. Again, needs a good PG and enough around her so they don't guard her with their best defender. (And MSU had really good perimeter defenders.)

*Gabrielle Abigor. I've seen her since she was a sophomore in high school, and she's a marvelous athlete with a shooting range of three feet (though I haven't seen all her games at Cal). Great supporting piece but like all young posts, needs seasoning. She's like so many Cal posts in recent years: Gets the ball, athletic, can't shoot.

*Lola Donez. Seems like a nice player who can defend but can't score.

Sadly, the missing piece is one of the hardest to find: A point guard who can run the show, handle the ball and make the occasional three. Oh, and a perimeter stopper would be nice too.

All that said, Cal appears to be a competent P4 basketball team. There's talent and some quality, but also some flaws that good teams can exploit.

Oh, and it's not the refs' fault.
RedlessWardrobe
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An appropriate title to the thread. If you had watched the Gonzaga game you would have seen an extremely different Kayla Williams. For the most part, she has done a solid better than average job so far this season.

Charmin has basically used a rotation in which Ioanna takes over the point guard duties when Kayla is out of the game. I suspect that Lola could fill in at that position, as can Zahra King who is a true point guard, but it appears that Charmin does not yet have confidence in Zahra at the point during significant minutes.

Even considering Lulu as a point guard is an indication that you have not watched this team very much. Lulu in the half court offense is fine off the dribble, but her strength is obviously a catch and shoot 2 or 3(position).

I may be deviating from realism, but I really thought yesterday's game got away from us due to a combination of circumstances. Michele fouling out, Kayla with a bad game, and missing Jayda due to injury as well as a couple of very questionable ref calls all contributed. It's not an excuse, it was a really bad 4th quarter performance, but I hope this game will help the team in the long run.
wvitbear
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Abigor is a better shooter than you would imagine. In practice I have seen her make threes. She shoots 75 % from the free throw line.
HoopDreams
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After Kayla William's huge game vs Zags I said this could be the team

But was a little skeptical of her before and don't recognize her the last two games with unforced turnovers and no offense

Lulu is more than a catch and shoot 3. When teams have to close out she can drive and score. Big talent and a great find.

Ioanna is an ace shooter but can't make her own shot. She needs to develop a step back and improve her handle. She's not quick enough to just get by players so she needs to improve her change of pace moves.

Abigail is a future star. I think she will improve her range out to 15 feet.

I've said from start of season that Michelle is key to season. Improved offense although still misses some bunnies and really needs a hook with her right hand. She made a big focus on not fouling in first half but every coach's number 1 strategy is to attack her. Thought 2 fouls were questionable. Why do refs think they have to call a foul when ever there is contact?

Marta is our Alpha and does so much for this team. I wish she passed more, although she had 2 assists. Gotta live with her flaws.

We needed Jayda. She's done a solid job defending bigs when needed.
annarborbear
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All of the above is likely correct. But it leaves out how well we played in the second and third quarters. Need to apply what we can learn from that today. Plus, maybe Noble will be back.
Bear8995
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Granted I've only watched 8-10 of her games, but Suarez turns the ball over WAY too much. 4 TOs in one quarter? 6 yesterday? Crazy. She should not be handling the ball as much as she does.
Bear8995
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Twidale can really shoot. Wow.
Maul is having a great game. She's earning more minutes IMO.
Would like to see Donez attack the basket instead of shooting 3s. Her 3 ball isn't in line.
Onyiah is a beast. She has really improved.
19 TOs through the mid point in Q4 is still WAY too many. If we focus on committing less than 10 per game, we will win a lot more games. I think a big culprit is the # of one handed passes we make. Not sure why we do that so much.
Almost criminal that we don't go after Jada Williams with 4 fouls. I don't understand that. Again, poor coaching.
RedlessWardrobe
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Bear8995 said:

Twidale can really shoot. Wow.
Maul is having a great game. She's earning more minutes IMO.
Would like to see Donez attack the basket instead of shooting 3s. Her 3 ball isn't in line.
Onyiah is a beast. She has really improved.
19 TOs through the mid point in Q4 is still WAY too many. If we focus on committing less than 10 per game, we will win a lot more games. I think a big culprit is the # of one handed passes we make. Not sure why we do that so much.
Almost criminal that we don't go after Jada Williams with 4 fouls. I don't understand that. Again, poor coaching.

Wow, it never ends. Game started with the Bears struggling against tight pressure on the perimeter. Early second quarter Charmin adjusts by going with basically a 4 guard lineup. Works like a charm. The team had a tough loss yesterday with one of their key bench players missing. They come back with a very nice win. Good job Charmin and coaching staff! Time to let the overabundance of coaching criticism go. Really.
john1953
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As usual for this forum, the breakdown of players on this (winning) work-in-progress team is inciteful and interesting to read.

I don't agree with criticism of Charmin Smith. This team is 7-1. We don't know what she tells the team in the last quarter; often young human beings do not execute "orders" in real time, facing an opposition equally trying to stop them from executing. Additionally, Charmin is also not to blame for the team not getting off a shot before the thirty-second buzzer, especially as the bench is loudly counting down the seconds.

We can all see who is in on-the-court in the final minutes. We all see the stats. This team is evolving nicely, the bench players are earning more minutes charging into December.

Lulu and Ioanna together (while spreading the floor) creates opportunities for the whole team. Sometimes the others hold on to the ball too long and lose the best team shot opportunities. Pass that rock, but not those line-drive long one-handed passes into traffic.

The imperfect Bears are better than SEVEN less-perfect opponents. I'll take it. Even the Warriors aren't perfect when it comes to turnovers, or foul shooting. Winning is the metric that counts.

I hope Lulu is ok. Such a consistent, talented, smart player.



blungld
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It should be repeated that this is Charmin's best team and I think a tournament worthy team...if they cut down the turnovers.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
CalLurker
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I have been following the team, the games, the recruits. My two cents: 5 years of subpar performance is a long time. And it can't be the players when the constant is the Head Coach. Charmin is not a good coach. It is evident when Cal plays good teams. The 7 games won this far have been to subpar teams. Arizona is not the same program that produced Aari McDonald, so it is hard to be impressed by a win against them.

Charmin does not seem to understand strategy or how to maximize her players skills. If you look at the current roster, why is Marta allowed to attempt to handle the ball when it is clear that she is a turnover machine? Who is working with Michelle on strategy to avoid foul trouble? Ionna is not a PG but she can shoot the lights out when left open. But when teams clamp down on her what is the offensive strategy? The same with Lulu. When good teams show up and clamp her what's the strategy? The PG, Kayla has too many turnovers as a 6th year PG. Are there no other options?

Although counterintuitive, is Charmin encouraging her bench NOT to score? They are afraid to attempt shots. And she has recruited the 22nd ranked recruiting class for 2024 and the two ranked members of that squad are rarely on the floor. Are they that much of a liability? I'm confused. How do you develop your younger players when they aren't played.

Her decision making is questionable at best given the last 5 years of results. Who is going to bring a friggin friend to see a game of TOs and wins against mid-majors. When Cal wbb plays formidable Power 5 (now 4) teams there is no entertainment value because of the coaching that makes the game frustrating to watch.

RedlessWardrobe
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^ That's a whole bunch of comments based on conclusions, not specifics,i.e "Charmin encouraging her bench not to score." Is that really what you're coming with? Based on your two cents worth, I would suggest you stop watching this team play.
Polodad
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When I arrived the Bears were down 4 about 4 minutes in. The pressure continued to be disruptive for the balance of the quarter. Clearly Charmin adjusted at the quarter. AZ tried to pick up full court the rest of the way but it just wasn't effective.
mbBear
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CalLurker said:

I have been following the team, the games, the recruits. My two cents: 5 years of subpar performance is a long time. And it can't be the players when the constant is the Head Coach. Charmin is not a good coach. It is evident when Cal plays good teams. The 7 games won this far have been to subpar teams. Arizona is not the same program that produced Aari McDonald, so it is hard to be impressed by a win against them.

Charmin does not seem to understand strategy or how to maximize her players skills. If you look at the current roster, why is Marta allowed to attempt to handle the ball when it is clear that she is a turnover machine? Who is working with Michelle on strategy to avoid foul trouble? Ionna is not a PG but she can shoot the lights out when left open. But when teams clamp down on her what is the offensive strategy? The same with Lulu. When good teams show up and clamp her what's the strategy? The PG, Kayla has too many turnovers as a 6th year PG. Are there no other options?

Although counterintuitive, is Charmin encouraging her bench NOT to score? They are afraid to attempt shots. And she has recruited the 22nd ranked recruiting class for 2024 and the two ranked members of that squad are rarely on the floor. Are they that much of a liability? I'm confused. How do you develop your younger players when they aren't played.

Her decision making is questionable at best given the last 5 years of results. Who is going to bring a friggin friend to see a game of TOs and wins against mid-majors. When Cal wbb plays formidable Power 5 (now 4) teams there is no entertainment value because of the coaching that makes the game frustrating to watch.


And why can't it be the players just because it's the same head coach? Your conclusion is that Cal had the talent to match up with the best of the Pac-12 during that time and underperformed?
IF you were inclined to come back with "well, doesn't the HC recruit the players," then I saved you the trouble, and here you go.
BearBint
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RedlessWardrobe said:

^ That's a whole bunch of comments based on conclusions, not specifics,i.e "Charmin encouraging her bench not to score." Is that really what you're coming with? Based on your two cents worth, I would suggest you stop watching this team play.
I believe that comment came from someone who signed up to this forum yesterday in order to make negative remarks. Today, one of the things I'm thankful for is the muting/blocking filter.
"Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
RedlessWardrobe
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BearBint said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

^ That's a whole bunch of comments based on conclusions, not specifics,i.e "Charmin encouraging her bench not to score." Is that really what you're coming with? Based on your two cents worth, I would suggest you stop watching this team play.
I believe that comment came from someone who signed up to this forum yesterday in order to make negative remarks. Today, one of the things I'm thankful for is the muting/blocking filter.
Good call. When I see posts like that I forget to look up the profile and check the date joined.

Look, is Charmin perfect? No. But when I read comments like "encouraging her bench not to score" I really question whether the poster has any clue as to what goes into coaching basketball these days.
The "bench" comment leads me to believe that the poster just finished watching "Hoosiers" when Gene Hackman tells his players, "Don't shoot the ball until you've passed it at least four times." It don't go down like that.
Finnish Oski
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On Thanksgiving I'm grateful for this forum and that the overwhelming majority of people who use it are thoughtful and intelligent and at times insightful. I'm also thankful for the ignore user feature. Happy Thanksgiving and Go Bears!
CalWSportsFan
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I love this team, this program, and the real fans who have remained here over time through lows and highs. I've enjoyed watching this year's team as they gel with one another and continue to evolve as players. It's particularly encouraging to see how Charmin has built a competitive Bears team in the dawn of this new NIL/transfer portal era. It's still early in the season, but so far, one thing I do notice, aside from the solid performances on the court, is that this group seems to posses a real joy and enthusiasm for the gameand one another.

While it's fine to critique on occasion, when someone posts here simply to troll it's an immediate block for me.
wvitbear
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At the last practice, we had a photo of the team and the fans sitting together. I particulaly enjoyed my discussion with Jada. And it wasn't about basketball.

If we stop turning it over we could be a very good basketball team as our half court defense and offense are very good.
SFCALBear72
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wvitbear said:

At the last practice, we had a photo of the team and the fans sitting together. I particulaly enjoyed my discussion with Jada. And it wasn't about basketball.

If we stop turning it over we could be a very good basketball team as our half court defense and offense are very good.
I think the "puzzle pieces" (returners, portal transfers and freshmen) are still trying to mesh together and become one cohesive unit. Once that happens, I think the turnovers will decline. The chemistry is definitely there. The more they become comfortable playing together, the more likely they'll be that cohesive team - knowing and anticipating each other's moves, etc.
Bear8995
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blungld said:

It should be repeated that this is Charmin's best team and I think a tournament worthy team...if they cut down the turnovers.
I agree but curious as to why this should be repeated. Meaning that the program is on the upswing? The program is at its peak? That Charmin has finally figured things out after 6 years?

I sincerely hope the Bears make it to the tournament. As you noted, they need to cut down on turnovers to do that. We'll see. I hope we change some of our offensive schemes to help with that. Seems to me we ask our players to perform a lot of high risk actions (e.g., lob passes over the top) that contribute to the high # of turnovers.
Bear8995
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RedlessWardrobe said:

Bear8995 said:

Twidale can really shoot. Wow.
Maul is having a great game. She's earning more minutes IMO.
Would like to see Donez attack the basket instead of shooting 3s. Her 3 ball isn't in line.
Onyiah is a beast. She has really improved.
19 TOs through the mid point in Q4 is still WAY too many. If we focus on committing less than 10 per game, we will win a lot more games. I think a big culprit is the # of one handed passes we make. Not sure why we do that so much.
Almost criminal that we don't go after Jada Williams with 4 fouls. I don't understand that. Again, poor coaching.

Wow, it never ends. Game started with the Bears struggling against tight pressure on the perimeter. Early second quarter Charmin adjusts by going with basically a 4 guard lineup. Works like a charm. The team had a tough loss yesterday with one of their key bench players missing. They come back with a very nice win. Good job Charmin and coaching staff! Time to let the overabundance of coaching criticism go. Really.
It may seem lame to criticize Charmin when the team is 7-1. I get that. However, I'd love to see the team make it to the NCAA tournament, and I just don't see it right now. The wins so far are great but the schedule only gets more difficult from here. Imagine If we had committed 11 turnovers (still somewhat high but an acceptable #) yesterday instead of 21, Shooting 40%, we would have won by 20. That 8 point difference is the difference between an NCAA team and an WNIT team. We seem to always be on the wrong side of the selection process. I'd love to see us on the right side. To do that, we need to cut down on the turnovers (something that has been a constant throughout Charmin's tenure (and LG's tenure if we are being honest), build some depth, learn to handle pressure better (which will also help cut down on turnovers) and be smarter on how we attack the other team. Is it possible? Sure. We'll see if it happens.
RedlessWardrobe
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Agreed. But as the saying goes, you can only play who you're scheduled to play. The upcoming Alabama game should be a real good test as to what lies ahead. I'm hoping Jayda will be ready to go, she showed some real value in the Auburn game. Coaching is always a factor, but players need to hit their potential and continue to improve as well.
stu
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Bear8995 said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

Bear8995 said:

Twidale can really shoot. Wow.
Maul is having a great game. She's earning more minutes IMO.
Would like to see Donez attack the basket instead of shooting 3s. Her 3 ball isn't in line.
Onyiah is a beast. She has really improved.
19 TOs through the mid point in Q4 is still WAY too many. If we focus on committing less than 10 per game, we will win a lot more games. I think a big culprit is the # of one handed passes we make. Not sure why we do that so much.
Almost criminal that we don't go after Jada Williams with 4 fouls. I don't understand that. Again, poor coaching.

Wow, it never ends. Game started with the Bears struggling against tight pressure on the perimeter. Early second quarter Charmin adjusts by going with basically a 4 guard lineup. Works like a charm. The team had a tough loss yesterday with one of their key bench players missing. They come back with a very nice win. Good job Charmin and coaching staff! Time to let the overabundance of coaching criticism go. Really.
It may seem lame to criticize Charmin when the team is 7-1. I get that. However, I'd love to see the team make it to the NCAA tournament, and I just don't see it right now. The wins so far are great but the schedule only gets more difficult from here. Imagine If we had committed 11 turnovers (still somewhat high but an acceptable #) yesterday instead of 21, Shooting 40%, we would have won by 20. That 8 point difference is the difference between an NCAA team and an WNIT team. We seem to always be on the wrong side of the selection process. I'd love to see us on the right side. To do that, we need to cut down on the turnovers (something that has been a constant throughout Charmin's tenure (and LG's tenure if we are being honest), build some depth, learn to handle pressure better (which will also help cut down on turnovers) and be smarter on how we attack the other team. Is it possible? Sure. We'll see if it happens.
I too would like to see fewer turnovers but in Charmin's previous seasons the turnover margin hasn't been that bad:

2023-24: Cal 14.9, opp 13.7
2022-23: Cal 14.1, opp 14.1
2021-22: Cal 15.2, opp 16.1
2020-21: Cal 20.6, opp 11.2 *
2019-20: Cal 15.5, opp 13.9

* 2020-21 was the COVID-19 season. Our only guards healthy enough to play were Leilani (freshie), Ornela (deer-in-the-headlights freshie), Mia (wing who joined the team in January after graduating early from high school), and a couple of walk-ons. 9 games were cancelled because we didn't have enough players to compete.
Bear8995
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Here is this season (our TO #s are first):

St. Mary's 20 vs. 19
Idaho St. 16 vs. 24
SJ State 8 vs. 16
Gonzaga 12 vs. 24
Grambling 26 vs. 22
Auburn 29 vs. 18
Michigan St 20 vs. 11
Arizona 21 vs. 13

We seem to really struggle against the better teams, and even Grambling. Play like we did against Gonzaga and we look pretty good.
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