Florida State prediction

2,177 Views | 29 Replies | Last: 11 days ago by ethan0l
Schroeder71
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My prediction for Sunday afternoon is Cal 77, FSU 74. I watched most of the Fla St-Stanford game and it gave me the courage to make my pick. The Seminoles (13-3) are second in the nation in scoring with an average of 94.3 points per game. They have blown out many of their opponents. They have also lost three of their four road games to date. Their dynamic offense has been held down into the seventies 3x out of 16 games played. FSU lost at Illinois (83-74) and at Tennessee (79-77). Then, they fell to Stanford last Thursday night in a wild offensive shootout (89-84). The Seminoles are an incredible offensive machine, but I was not impressed with their size or their defense.
2024-25 Women's Basketball Roster - Florida State University

TRIO OF STARS: Ta'Niya Latson (#00) leads the nation in scoring @ 27.7 ppg. She is a 5-8 junior who is lightning fast. She was rated the #1 shooting guard in the country in the Class of 2022. She was selected the Florida POY, too. The quarterback of this offense is O'Mariah Gordon (#3). She was the 2021 Florida POY. This 5-4 senior PG leads the nation in assist/turnover ratio with an amazing 3.76. Makayla Timpson (#21) is their inside force. She is a 6-2 senior PF with hops. She was rated the #46 best player in the Class of 2021. Timpson averages a double-double per game: 18 points & 10.5 rebounds. She leads the nation in shot blocks w/50!
Florida State University

I'm not going to give a detailed breakdown of the other five players in Florida State's eight player rotation. However, there is a potential secret weapon that returned against Stanford in 6-4 post, Malea Williams. She is a grad transfer from Cincinnati who was starting early in the season before she was injured vs Florida. She was MIA for nine games. Last season, Williams was 2nd on the Bearcats with 35 treys made, had 34 blocks, 8.3 points & 5.9 rebounds per game. Fortunately, she picked up two quick PFs and was a non-factor. Cal fans may want to watch for #22 tomorrow.

If the results do not match my forecast, it probably will be because of the Seminole's team speed. They force 20 turnovers per game that helps jump start their running game. Gordon leads Florida State in steals w/ 47, followed closely by Latson w/ 42 & Timpson w/ 36. The team generates 11.6 steals per game. The benefit can clearly be seen when one compares their low TO number of 10.7 per contest.

FSU outrebounds their opposition by 1.9 boards / g. However, the Cardinal crushed the Seminoles on the boards in Palo Alto by a count of 52-35. If the Bears are to triumph, they will also have to control the boards.

Although both Fla State and Stanford connected on ten treys, the Cardinal benefited from lax defense and hit 40% (10-25). I'm anticipating that the Bears should benefit in a similar fashion on their three-point accuracy if they are to emerge victorious. GO BEARS!



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Ashfield63
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The Coaches Poll:

NC Sate..........#19

Florida State:......#24

Cal..........#25


AP Poll: Cal remains at #24
RedlessWardrobe
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Ashfield63 said:

The Coaches Poll:

NC Sate..........#19

Florida State:......#24

Cal..........#25


AP Poll: Cal remains at #24
Only changes on Mondays.
Schroeder71
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Cal did most everything that they needed to do to stay undefeated at home and defeat Florida State. I loved the Bears performance when they built a 30-point lead (70-40).

However, I did not like the effort or the defense down the stretch as the Seminoles almost cut the margin to single digits. They easily tallied 45 points to win the second half and outscored the Bears 30-12 to finish the game. All Cal had to do was draw fouls to go to the free throw line for two shots for most of the fourth quarter, but they couldn't even draw a foul.

I guess that I should be buoyant with a 16-2 overall record and a 4-1 conference mark. Cal will move up several slots because there were lots of upsets this week. GO BEARS!

graguna
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Schroeder71 said:

Cal did most everything that they needed to do to stay undefeated at home and defeat Florida State. I loved the Bears performance when they built a 30-point lead (70-40).

However, I did not like the effort or the defense down the stretch as the Seminoles almost cut the margin to single digits. They easily tallied 45 points to win the second half and outscored the Bears 30-12 to finish the game. All Cal had to do was draw fouls to go to the free throw line for two shots for most of the fourth quarter, but they couldn't even draw a foul.

I guess that I should be buoyant with a 16-2 overall record and a 4-1 conference mark. Cal will move up several slots because there were lots of upsets this week. GO BEARS!


glass half full look: CAL showed how dominant they can be yet still gave Charmin lots of material to teach them how to be better
HoopDreams
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What was lowest margin? I thought it was 18?

Coach put in some deep bench players with 5 minutes left

It's good to get them prime time minutes
Schroeder71
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HoopDreams-Illinois defeated them 83-74 by nine points. Cal still had the largest margin of victory (by a dozen).
SFCALBear72
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S71. We embarrassed them in the first half by putting up 50 points to their 25!

They were not going to have the same thing happen in the second half.
Your complaining about the 4th quarter is not warranted or appreciated. Charmin put in the reserves except for Kayla to finish out the game. They need more game experience. It's a quick turnaround with a game at Duke on Thursday. Starters need to rest before the trip.

Your prediction 77-74. lol.
stu
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SFCALBear72 said:

S71. We embarrassed them in the first half by putting up 50 points to their 25!

They were not going to have the same thing happen in the second half.
Your complaining about the 4th quarter is not warranted or appreciated. Charmin put in the reserves except for Kayla to finish out the game. They need more game experience. It's a quick turnaround with a game at Duke on Thursday. Starters need to rest before the trip.

Your prediction 77-74. lol.
We mostly played our reserves one at a time and several starters were still in at the end. From my point of view it looked like our guards were tiring and we weren't defending drives to the hoop as well as we did earlier in the game. This would have been a good time to have Lola available since Jayda was replacing Marta rather than a guard. Our starting guards played 32, 36, and 36 minutes; Anastasia played 11, Zhara played 3, and Jayda played 2 (at guard). IMHO all three posts played well.

I see nothing wrong with S71's prediction, if we miss 2 more shots in the 1st half and FSU makes 2 more then he's spot on. Didn't look that way when we had a 32 point lead but the games run 40 minutes, not 25.
Schroeder71
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stu is correct. Three starters were in with a couple of reserves in the fourth quarter.
HoopDreams
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Schroeder71 said:

HoopDreams-Illinois defeated them 83-74 by nine points. Cal still had the largest margin of victory (by a dozen).


Thx S71 but my question was about our game today

What was closest margin?
HoopDreams
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Schroeder71 said:

stu is correct. Three starters were in with a couple of reserves in the fourth quarter.


Coach tried to rest Williams but couldn't leave her out. Lo is only an adequate PG

They tried King but she needs more experience. She will be better later in season and next year

I still think it's unfortunate that Lola is injured given how it happened (last minute of a winning game where she tried to make a scrappy play when it wasn't needed

She would have helped today
Schroeder71
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Closest margin in today's game was the final score (I believe). I know that I was worried that the score could go to single digits but did not. Hopefully, that was the question that you were asking me. GO BEARS!
RedlessWardrobe
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stu said:

SFCALBear72 said:

S71. We embarrassed them in the first half by putting up 50 points to their 25!

They were not going to have the same thing happen in the second half.
Your complaining about the 4th quarter is not warranted or appreciated. Charmin put in the reserves except for Kayla to finish out the game. They need more game experience. It's a quick turnaround with a game at Duke on Thursday. Starters need to rest before the trip.

Your prediction 77-74. lol.
We mostly played our reserves one at a time and several starters were still in at the end. From my point of view it looked like our guards were tiring and we weren't defending drives to the hoop as well as we did earlier in the game. This would have been a good time to have Lola available since Jayda was replacing Marta rather than a guard. Our starting guards played 32, 36, and 36 minutes; Anastasia played 11, Zhara played 3, and Jayda played 2 (at guard). IMHO all three posts played well.

I see nothing wrong with S71's prediction, if we miss 2 more shots in the 1st half and FSU makes 2 more then he's spot on. Didn't look that way when we had a 32 point lead but the games run 40 minutes, not 25.
As usual, the most significant contribution from S71 is his information, not his prediction. That being said, to consider his prediction of a 3 point game anything close to valid is a bit ridiculous. The final score of this game was deceiving. This game was WAY closer to a blowout than a cliffhanger.
SFCALBear72
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HoopDreams said:

Schroeder71 said:

stu is correct. Three starters were in with a couple of reserves in the fourth quarter.


Coach tried to rest Williams but couldn't leave her out. Lo is only an adequate PG

They tried King but she needs more experience. She will be better later in season and next year

I still think it's unfortunate that Lola is injured given how it happened (last minute of a winning game where she tried to make a scrappy play when it wasn't needed

She would have helped today
I noticed yesterday that Lola is no longer wearing the boot.
Apparently, it was said during the Chalk Talk before Thursday's game that she could be back during this upcoming road trip.
wvitbear
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She was walking around fine and feeding players who were wqrming up at half time. Maul has not dressed the last two games either.
annarborbear
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We played great in the first half. But I thought the FSU coach also did one of the all-time bad scouting jobs in preparing for us. They seemed to have no idea what we were doing until the second half. Kayla was also playing at a pace that they just couldn't handle,
mbBear
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Schroeder71 said:

Cal did most everything that they needed to do to stay undefeated at home and defeat Florida State. I loved the Bears performance when they built a 30-point lead (70-40).

However, I did not like the effort or the defense down the stretch as the Seminoles almost cut the margin to single digits. They easily tallied 45 points to win the second half and outscored the Bears 30-12 to finish the game. All Cal had to do was draw fouls to go to the free throw line for two shots for most of the fourth quarter, but they couldn't even draw a foul.

I guess that I should be buoyant with a 16-2 overall record and a 4-1 conference mark. Cal will move up several slots because there were lots of upsets this week. GO BEARS!


Totally your choice as to when to feel "buoyant" but from the ESPN top 25 write up today:

Rising Bears

California moved up six spots to No. 18 after beating No. 21 NC State and Florida State last week. The Bears have their highest ranking since they were 18th on Dec. 31, 2018.
Schroeder71
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Does anyone know when Claudia Langarita will return this season? It was speculated that she would be ready in January. The season has crossed the halfway mark- is there a chance that she can redshirt this season and return next season?
wvitbear
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Averaged 1.5 rebounds a game for us. Why do you think it will help? I think this is her 5th year.
CalWSportsFan
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I think her back injury is such that she may not play at all. She had surgery and likely longterm health is the primary concern over basketball. I've no official info, but have heard this is likely.
annarborbear
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I thought we would be desperate for a back-up to Michelle this year. But Abigor has stormed past all expectations with the help of some great coaching in her development.
RedlessWardrobe
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Gabby is no longer playing like a freshman. Gotta believe she's gonna get even better. And Ackerman has been giving us good minutes as well.
stu
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Speaking of Claudia:
wvitbear said:

Averaged 1.5 rebounds a game for us. Why do you think it will help? I think this is her 5th year.

This is her 4th year so AFAIK she could get a medical blueshirt year. To me she looks more like a forward than a center so I could imagine her and Gabrielle on the court at the same time.
HoopDreams
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RedlessWardrobe said:

Gabby is no longer playing like a freshman. Gotta believe she's gonna get even better. And Ackerman has been giving us good minutes as well.
agree, Gabby has been huge. She's long, athletic, and can score

she has truly changed the trajectory of this team
SFCALBear72
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From The Athletic:

Have the Golden Bears solved their turnover issues?

Cal took care of business in its first home set of the ACC schedule, beating NC State and Florida
State comfortably to move into third in the conference standings behind Notre Dame and Louisville. The main takeaway from those wins was that the Golden Bears had 24 total turnovers in the two games, posting two of their four lowest turnover percentages of the season. They slowed their pace slightly and had better ball control.

At the risk of conflating those two stats, consider that Cal has been this team on the road all season. It has played slower away from its home crowd (about two fewer possessions per game on the road) and has cut its turnovers from 18.4 per game at Haas Pavilion to 15 away from Berkeley.

The test of this improvement will come quickly, as Cal's next matchup is against Duke, which forces 21 turnovers per game. The Blue Devils press on more than 30 percent of their possessions, and though the Golden Bears have been excellent against pressure this season they rank in the 93rd percentile in points per possession the stress of constantly facing full-court defense is a different challenge.

HoopDreams
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SFCALBear72 said:

From The Athletic:

Have the Golden Bears solved their turnover issues?

Cal took care of business in its first home set of the ACC schedule, beating NC State and Florida
State comfortably to move into third in the conference standings behind Notre Dame and Louisville. The main takeaway from those wins was that the Golden Bears had 24 total turnovers in the two games, posting two of their four lowest turnover percentages of the season. They slowed their pace slightly and had better ball control.

At the risk of conflating those two stats, consider that Cal has been this team on the road all season. It has played slower away from its home crowd (about two fewer possessions per game on the road) and has cut its turnovers from 18.4 per game at Haas Pavilion to 15 away from Berkeley.

The test of this improvement will come quickly, as Cal's next matchup is against Duke, which forces 21 turnovers per game. The Blue Devils press on more than 30 percent of their possessions, and though the Golden Bears have been excellent against pressure this season they rank in the 93rd percentile in points per possession the stress of constantly facing full-court defense is a different challenge.


Kayla is key... she's been playing heavy minutes and we want Lo at SG, not PG as much as possible

King isn't quite ready for primetime, especially against an aggressive defense
kc1121
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Kayla is my MVP so far this season. Can't imagine where the team would be without her running the show
OBear073akaSMFan
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HoopDreams said:

SFCALBear72 said:

From The Athletic:

Have the Golden Bears solved their turnover issues?

Cal took care of business in its first home set of the ACC schedule, beating NC State and Florida
State comfortably to move into third in the conference standings behind Notre Dame and Louisville. The main takeaway from those wins was that the Golden Bears had 24 total turnovers in the two games, posting two of their four lowest turnover percentages of the season. They slowed their pace slightly and had better ball control.

At the risk of conflating those two stats, consider that Cal has been this team on the road all season. It has played slower away from its home crowd (about two fewer possessions per game on the road) and has cut its turnovers from 18.4 per game at Haas Pavilion to 15 away from Berkeley.

The test of this improvement will come quickly, as Cal's next matchup is against Duke, which forces 21 turnovers per game. The Blue Devils press on more than 30 percent of their possessions, and though the Golden Bears have been excellent against pressure this season they rank in the 93rd percentile in points per possession the stress of constantly facing full-court defense is a different challenge.


Kayla is key... she's been playing heavy minutes and we want Lo at SG, not PG as much as possible

King isn't quite ready for primetime, especially against an aggressive defense
Kayla started off slow but she has been outstanding for the last 14 games or so. She is the key because she is our best ball handler and distributor though she still have too many TO but then she is going a mile a minute. We definitely need to get King in as much as possible because we need her get as much experience as possible (imo).
ethan0l
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You saw the version of Kayla we need in the Gonzaga. I still think that game shows our ceiling and it's a pretty high one
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