Louisville preview & prediction

3,486 Views | 69 Replies | Last: 22 days ago by annarborbear
Schroeder71
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Louisville women's basketball was put on the map by HC Jeff Walz. This is his 18th season at the helm. UL was upset in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament last season, but the Cardinals earn a spot annually. This season has been tough sledding because he is rebuilding his team with a freshmen class of nine. The team also has a sophomore post from Turkey, a junior, two senior transfers plus two 5th year grad students (Covid-19). Their 29-game regular season schedule has 12 ranked teams on it. Walz generally rotates 8-9 players which has to include 3-4 youngsters (frosh) in 2024-25.

2024-25 Women's Basketball Roster - University of Louisville Athletic

Fortunately, one of the freshmen, Tajianna Roberts, has turned out to be Louisville's leading scorer and best player. She was ranked #24 by ESPN HoopGurlz. Her five finalists were UL, Duke, VT, Cal & Kentucky. Roberts is #22 and is a 5-10 SG from San Diego. She plays unafraid and hit four three-pointers vs Notre Dame to bring her team back to w/in one at halftime. However, she cooled off thereafter and did not hit another. This sensational frosh leads the Cardinals in both scoring (13.2) and treys (37). On defense, she's quick and is tops in steals w/ 41.

I'm going to predict that Cal will squeak by Louisville, 74-70, in front of 9000 fans.

2024-25 WBB Season Stats - University of Louisville Athletic

The starting point guard is a senior transfer from Miami, Ja'Leah Williams. She stands 5-9 and averages 6.3 ppg. Williams can distribute the ball, averaging approximately 4 assists per game. She is very fast and is second on her team in steals with 36.

Jayda Curry, transfer from Cal, is a combo guard in Louisville's offensive system. She is a 5-6 senior who seems to play faster under Walz. Jayda now looks to pass off first and shoot second. She is second is assists with 3.11 per game. Although Curry is second in offensive production (11.9 points), she scores most of her points from the free throw line. She has registered 50 FTs (92.6%). Curry is second in three-pointers with 34 in 18 games. She is tied for 4th in steals with 22.

Louisville plays two post players in their offense. Olivia Cochran (#44) is a 6-3 "big" who is a 5th year grad student. She was a 2020 McDonald's All-American and was rated the #18 player by ESPN's HG. Cochran leads in rebounds with 6.4 and adds 10.3 points to the offense, too. She is 3rd in steals (23) but does turn the ball over the most on the team (50). The other PF is 6-2 junior, Nyla Harris. She contributes 10.0 points plus 5.7 boards per game. She was rated #34 in the nation by HoopGurlz coming out of high school.

The backup SG is a 6-0 5th year grad student, Merissa Russell. She adds 5.1 ppg and is tied for 4th in steals (22). Russell is tied for fourth in treys w/ 15.

The other freshmen that see meaningful minutes are two from Sierra Canyon HS near San Diego. Mackenly Randolph, a husky 6-0 forward, received 24 minutes vs ND because Louisville needed to rebound better. Her stats are not much but she's improving rapidly. Randolph was selected as a MCD AA and was rated #23 by HG. Her teammate from high school, Izela Arenas, is an extremely fast guard but plays out-of-control often. Both of their fathers were NBA stars. Finally, their three-point bomber, Imari Berry, averages 5.5 points in only 12 minutes per game. She is third in treys with 24 (39.3%). Berry was also chosen as a McDonald's AA.

If you read my comments for each game, this will sound familiar. If Louisville upsets Cal, it likely will be due to the number of TOs they force. The Cardinals pressure their opponents into 20.1 turnovers per contest. They seem to step it up for the good teams, too. They forced 22 in a near upset of UCLA to open the season and triggered 23 against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best backcourt in the country, yet they had major trouble.

Louisville makes 6.3 threes per game, so Cal has a chance to outperform the home team in this area. The Cardinals also can be outrebounded with an average of 35.8 per game. The Bears need to control the boards like Notre Dame did to win this basketball game.

One last key point, two seasons ago when Jayda Curry was Cal's high scorer, she was completely shut down by USC's defensive specialist, Kayla Williams. The Bears current PG is 5-7 and quick. She proved that she could stay with 5-6 Curry and stop her from getting shots off. I believe that Jayda only made one field goal down in LA and Cal was held to 44 points. Remember, just try not to foul the former Bear star. Curry had to transfer to a national powerhouse rather than stay with Cal. C'mon-let's make her "eat her words"! GO BEARS!
3Cats4CAL
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Really hope Cal beats Curry and Roberts!!
3Cats4CAL
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It would be sweet victory for Cal to beat Louisville and then watch Charmin and Co. walk by and shake Curry's hand.
RedlessWardrobe
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Before going to our game on Sunday, I watched Louisville play Notre Dame on TV Sunday morning. Notre Dame won by 18, but the final score was very misleading. Louisville, at least in this game played quite well. Our team really needs to be ready to play tonight, or it will be a tough go. Gonna be difficult.
annarborbear
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Six of their seven losses have been against ranked teams, including UCLA, Notre Dame, UConn, Duke and Oklahoma. Against common opponents, they have not been great, beating Pitt by 11, beating Wake Forest in OT, beating SMU by 5, and losing to NC State. And they are only 6-3 at home. So this is a good year to face them, but never easy on the road.
smh
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we're grateful for acc channel's coverage via xfinity, on tivo.

rando net grab suggests Pickem, swiped from
  • https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2025/02/03/louisville-vs-cal-womens-college-basketball-odds-and-prediction-february-6

  • > Last Game For Each Team
    Louisville suffered defeat by a final score of 89-71 in their last game against Notre Dame. Leading the way on offense for the Cardinals was Tajianna Roberts, who ended the game with 14 points. Olivia Cochran posted 14 points. Cal enters this matchup having won against Pittsburgh in their last game 84-53. They were led by Ioanna Krimili (16 PTS, 2 STL, 50 FG%, 3-7 from 3PT) and Lulu Twidale (15 PTS, 57.14 FG%, 4-7 from 3PT).

    > Louisville vs. Cal NCAA Prediction
    Prediction:
    Cal 70, Louisville 69
  • Louisville's +116 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per game) is a result of scoring 73.2 points per game (68th in college basketball) while allowing 68.0 per contest (263rd in college basketball).
  • Roberts ranks 313th in the nation with a team-high 13.2 points per game.

  • > Cal's +289 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game) is a result of putting up 74.4 points per game (57th in college basketball) while giving up 61.8 per outing (115th in college basketball).
  • Krimili's team-leading 15.4 points per game rank him [wrong] 160th in college basketball.

  • bonus link..
  • https://gocards.com/sports/womens-basketball/roster/jayda-curry/14718
  • Quote:

    Louisville - Senior Year (2024-25)
    • Tied a season high with 14 points and had five assists, three rebounds and two steals in the win over Memphis
    • Scored 11 points and had two rebounds and two assists against #11 Oklahoma
    • Recorded a team-best 14 points and three assists to go with two rebounds and a steal in the road win over Colorado.
    • Scored 12 points and had six assists and three steals in the win over South Florida
    • Made her first appearance of the season against Morehead State and scored 11 points to go with three assists and two rebounds
    • 2025 Drysdale Award Watch List

    CalFanatic
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    Can't ask for a better start. 7-0 run. Louisville calls the timeout.
    CalFanatic
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    STOP

    TURNING

    THE

    BALL

    OVER
    CalFanatic
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    Louiville up 21-18 after another bonehad turnover on the last play. We've now passed the ball 3 times to a player when they simply weren't looking!

    STOP

    TURNING

    THE

    BALL

    OVER

    We are better than this. I know we can do it!!
    annarborbear
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    Depth is going to be the problem in this one. They already have 10 points off of their bench and can play at a fast pace.
    blungld
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    Turnovers happen...but so far at least three turnovers that are just straight giving it to the other team. How have they not improved on this?
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    CalFanatic
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    10 turnovers, 8 FG made.

    Louisville up by double digits.
    blungld
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    Just being out smarted and out hustled.
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    blungld
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    They need to get angry.
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    blungld
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    Bad no call on Krimili on that break away.
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    blungld
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    Teams seem to have figured out that when we get sped up we get sloppy and that you have to hassle us up the floor and on the arc because we will give you the ball, take a bad shot, or not get our 3 off. When we control tempo, we win.
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    kc1121
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    blungld said:

    Teams seem to have figured out that when we get sped up we get sloppy and that you have to hassle us up the floor and on the arc because we will give you the ball, take a bad shot, or not get our 3 off. When we control tempo, we win.
    Yeah, the pressure D on the ball which teams like Duke, UNC, Louisville and ND can do. Some of these teams are bigger, more athletic and deeper.

    But some of these lazy passes and bad entry passes into the paint need to stop.
    CalFanatic
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    Turnovers right now are 15 to 5.

    If we get 5 of those possessions back we could be looking at a tie ball game. Kills me.

    Time to battle! Back within single digits
    CalFanatic
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    At least Notre Dame is killing Stanford. That always makes me happy. 50-15!
    BearBint
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    CalFanatic said:

    At least Notre Dame is killing Stanford. That always makes me happy. 50-15!
    Very unkind of you. And makes me happy, too.
    "Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
    blungld
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    I love rooting for this team, but I am very worried about their ability to advance in the tournament with these turnovers and how they collapse under pressure.
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    kc1121
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    Geez I;m old.. that's Gilbert Arenas and Zach Randolph's daughters out there...
    gwashburn14
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    Definitely concerned about these turnovers down the road in the NCAA tournament. A lower seed is going to press and trap Cal and possibly pull off the upset because the Bears lack poise. Defenses want Krimili and Suarez to force up shots just to get defenders out of their face instead of scoring in the offense. Without several good ballhandlers that can beat the press and traps, Cal is going to struggle. Twindale, Krimili and Williams have a combined 14 turnovers late in the 3Q.
    kc1121
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    CalFanatic said:

    At least Notre Dame is killing Stanford. That always makes me happy. 50-15!
    and 19 turnovers at the half!
    blungld
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    23-0 bench scoring. Wow.
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    CalFanatic
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    Cal gets it to single digits again and it's the same ol' song

    turnovers
    turnovers
    turnovers

    Louisville up to a 16 point lead now. Okay, i'm turning this thing off. Hope everyone enjoys the rest of their evening. Go Bears (and stop turning the ball over)!
    blungld
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    So many of these turnovers are...why? There isn't even an advantage that would be gained from the forced pass or just throwing a rushed pass for no reason.
    The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
    GOCAL73
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    This team is just sloppy with the ball. Most of the turnovers are not due to Louisville. When you don't value the ball you lose. Pretty simple.
    Calbear73
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    This is simply an ass kicking. Worse game I've seen Cal play this year. Cal players look like they are asleep, moving slowly and it's some of the worse passing and turnovers I've seen all year. Not a good look tonight.
    kc1121
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    Those 9 missed FTs and all those TOs....
    annarborbear
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    With 6-28 three point shooting, 22 TO's, and no bench scoring, it is remarkable that we lost by only seven.

    Our strengths in this one: We out-rebounded them 36-34 and held them to 43% shooting.

    On the bright side -We need to win only two of our last seven games, and we should be in the tournament. And, obviously, we are going to do better than that.


    HairOfTheBear
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    kc1121 said:

    Geez I;m old.. that's Gilbert Arenas and Zach Randolph's daughters out there...
    If you haven't seen already, Arenas has a son, Alijah (6' 6" shooting guard), going to USC next year and he is a top 5 recruit and freakin scoring machine. What little I have seen he seems very ball dominate (ball hog?) but he can light it up. I heard Gilbert assessing the shooting mechanics of Steph and Klay, and he said he's teaching his son to not need a preferred position to receive a pass and be able to comfortable and release quickly like Klay, from any catch position. Some players need the ball to hit them at exact places or it throws them off a bit. Matt Barnes is doing the same with his twin sons.
    SFCALBear72
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    Given Louisville's success in limiting the 3-pointer looks for Io Krimili, I hope the coaches can make some offensive adjustments to lessen the impact of that strategy. It worked for them because Krimili got increasingly frustrated.

    I think Gisella Maul needs more playing time. She provided a spark off the bench in the 2nd half and particularly in the 4th quarter.

    After Notre Dame, we have six games left (4 at home). It would be great to sweep those games. The road games at UVA an VA Tech also look winnable.
    kc1121
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    HairOfTheBear said:

    kc1121 said:

    Geez I;m old.. that's Gilbert Arenas and Zach Randolph's daughters out there...
    If you haven't seen already, Arenas has a son, Alijah (6' 6" shooting guard), going to USC next year and he is a top 5 recruit and freakin scoring machine. What little I have seen he seems very ball dominate (ball hog?) but he can light it up. I heard Gilbert assessing the shooting mechanics of Steph and Klay, and he said he's teaching his son to not need a preferred position to receive a pass and be able to comfortable and release quickly like Klay, from any catch position. Some players need the ball to hit them at exact places or it throws them off a bit. Matt Barnes is doing the same with his twin sons.
    Yeah I saw that he announced recently and that Carlos Boozer had 2 boys that were very highly rated also.
    BearBint
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    Calbear73 said:

    This is simply an ass kicking. Worse game I've seen Cal play this year. Cal players look like they are asleep, moving slowly and it's some of the worse passing and turnovers I've seen all year. Not a good look tonight.
    A pretty bad game, but for whatever reason Cal lost by 7 (which is hardly an ass-kicking):

    https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=553382&vislive=cal

    As predicted by Massey: https://masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/games


    "Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
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