The Kayla Factor

1,674 Views | 25 Replies | Last: 12 days ago by RedlessWardrobe
RedlessWardrobe
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My comments here are going to be quite general, I realize that there's a lot more to our team/success than what I'm stating, but here it is:

At this point, both the team and us fans know our "identity." Defensively, without going into detail, it appears that we are fairly average. Not exceptionally good, nor exceptionally bad. Our success factor really relies on our offense. And yesterday's game was a prime example of how many games we win. More specifically:

Every opponent we face moving forward (both regular and post season) is going to defend us the same way that we've been seeing for several games now. No easy looks for Ioanna, Lulu, even Marta and Kayla. So I think that in most occasions our success will be measured by how well Kayla is able to operate at the point. So often she will be required to drive to the hoop, there will be instances when we will spread the floor for her. That's exactly what we saw yesterday. Results: Kayla, 21 points, 5 assists, only 1 turnover. End result=Cal victory. It's a lot to put on her, but her effectiveness moving forward will be a primary difference. Yesterday she was A+. We can only hope she's able to maintain that level. Obviously, the opposing point guard's defensive skills will come into play. (And then of course, there's always the Michelle/foul situation.) So keep up the great work Kayla, we need every minute of it.


wvitbear
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Kayla or as a I prefer to call her the Little Bear. Our best pickup last year.

On yesterdays game, it was interesting how the two teams played us. Boston college was mass chaos as soon as we crossed the mid court line. Syracuse was more laid back. But what I would like to comment on was the opposing teams post defense. Boston college fronted Michele with a 6'1" center and dared us to make a difficult pass. Syracuse had a much taller center who played behind Michele. gave Michele a little trouble till Michele figured out how to deal with it.

Since post play will be important for us down the stretch, it is interesting how they defense her. If we make them pay enough, they will have to lighten up on the outside. That means Michele must stay out of foul trouble. Plus Marta can also score inside.
kc1121
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I've always considered her the MVP this season. She hit a bit of a slump a few weeks ago, but this team wouldn't be where they are without her. I like how the broadcasters always mention how she was a big scorer at UCI(?), defensive stopper at USC and then her lead PG role now
RedlessWardrobe
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wvitbear said:

Kayla or as a I prefer to call her the Little Bear. Our best pickup last year.

On yesterdays game, it was interesting how the two teams played us. Boston college was mass chaos as soon as we crossed the mid court line. Syracuse was more laid back. But what I would like to comment on was the opposing teams post defense. Boston college fronted Michele with a 6'1" center and dared us to make a difficult pass. Syracuse had a much taller center who played behind Michele. gave Michele a little trouble till Michele figured out how to deal with it.

Since post play will be important for us down the stretch, it is interesting how they defense her. If we make them pay enough, they will have to lighten up on the outside. That means Michele must stay out of foul trouble. Plus Marta can also score inside.
Spot on wvb. The opponent's approach to Michelle is also coming into play. It's the second part of the equation to the Kayla factor. I guess we actually fare a bit better with a larger center playing behind her. The smaller center fronting strategy has caused many more turnovers off of entry passes.
annarborbear
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Her career field goal shooting percentage is 39.3% versus 49.6% for us this year. Same for three point shooting percentages - 33.7% career versus 39.4% this year. She has put in the work, but I also credit Charmin for giving her the green light to shoot and not holding her back.
wvitbear
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Charmin must teach shooting technique. Lulu has improved with Kayla. And LeLani improved every year. Hope whe works with Lola this year.
ClayK
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If opponents have a defender who could stay in front of Kayla, Cal will struggle to score.

One defender will stay with Krimili, another will focus on Lulu, and then let Suarez try to win the game by herself. Onyiah Is solid but she's not going to get 25 and 10.

But as long as Kayla can get to the hoop, Cal's offense as a chance to do enough to win.



HoopDreams
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This is perhaps the best WBB thread I've seen in this forum

Agree, Agree, Agree, Agree, Agree, Agree, Agree
Schroeder71
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Cal's offense has been on the decline for a month since the Duke debacle (1/16). The Bears were averaging 78 points per game then and now, in conference, the offense is putting up 68.5. At home, Cal usually scores in the low to mid-seventies and on the road, the offense drops down into the sixties (wins) or fifties (losses).

2024-2025 California Women's Basketball (PDF) - California Golden Bears Athletics

The Bears are shooting a high percentage inside with Onyiah & Suarez. Suarez has stopped making three-point shots (one or less) & Kaylah William's production there has also dropped off. Each game either Krimili or Twidale is being shutdown. Lulu had back-to-back games were she shot 1-10 & 1-9 from distance and yesterday was the worst game that I have seen from Krimili with a single trey and six total points. The *wildcard* is our point guard using her speed to drive to the basket. Actually, she is getting most of her points inside, too.

Cal needs to pick up their free throw shooting to be able to pull out close games down the stretch. Bears have missed 9 charity tosses in two consecutive games. GO BEARS!
gljone
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After what we've seen over the past few weeks, I agree Kayla is most likely the pivot point on how we finish conference play.

I think there are two main reasons for the 3s not dropping:

1) other teams know.
2) fatigue.

Everyone has the film, so to limit Cal, limit open looks at the arc.

But the second reason is more telling and it worries me. When you lose your legs, shooting percentages go way down, both 3s and FTs. The fact that Cal plays only 6-7 players means our main shooters have to play 30-35 per game.

I suppose the question is can the Bears maintain enough energy to finish the regular season strong? More to the point, can Kayla maintain the energy to be the prime ball handler for 30+ minutes per game?

Once post season comes around, I'd expect an energy/adrenaline burst that may be able to overcome some of the fatigue.

The remaining games are going to be challenges. I see 2-2 but hoping for better.
RedlessWardrobe
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^
To your point, getting a few minutes from Talie, Gabby, and Giselle could help. Also yesterday Jayda played much more. Hopefully with these four healthy and a maybe a few minutes from Lola we can start using 10, even if some of the roles are limited.

While 2W/2L is a possibility, with a good refocus it won't be entirely impossible to take all four of the remaining games. All we can do is hope for the best.
Schroeder71
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I believe that one reason that the splash sisters are missing so many three-point shots is that they're rushing them. When Lulu is set, she is quite accurate. However, when she tries to hit her shots on the move, they're seldom on target. Ioanna also is accurate when she is alone and ready for her release. When's she moving around screens and trying to hoist up her shots, they are usually not close to going in. I think that our post players need to pass back out when they get double-teamed. It happened early in the last game and the shooter was wide open.
HoopDreams
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Schroeder71 said:

I believe that one reason that the splash sisters are missing so many three-point shots is that they're rushing them. When Lulu is set, she is quite accurate. However, when she tries to hit her shots on the move, they're seldom on target. Ioanna also is accurate when she is alone and ready for her release. When's she moving around screens and trying to hoist up her shots, they are usually not close to going in. I think that our post players need to pass back out when they get double-teamed. It happened early in the last game and the shooter was wide open.
all 4 are catch and shoot players (although that true for most college shooters)

when defenses don't leave them (except weak side defender) they are getting far fewer open shots. But this has also impacted their shot when they are open, as they are rushing them a bit.

Yo would benefit from having a step back, but that's something she needs to work on in the offseason. You don't get good at it mid-season. Kayla has shown it a few times so maybe that's something she can use more if she doesn't have a longer defender on her, but obviously it's a higher difficulty shot so you need to be pretty confident with it to use it in a game.

This team moves the ball well when the ball is kicked out from the post. Our posts are good kickoff passers. When defenses are behind her it's a great play for us to pass into the post and either score or kickout if that's sealed off or if they bring help.

However what will continue to define our success is being able to beat the defender one-on-one and get into the paint. When we can't like vs NC and Duke we are in trouble

stu
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HoopDreams said:

However what will continue to define our success is being able to beat the defender one-on-one and get into the paint. When we can't like vs NC and Duke we are in trouble
Yep. The best teams have athletes who can get by defenders on the dribble and who can prevent that at the other end.
HoopDreams
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when teams are chasing us off the line, our formula for success is points in the paint...




in other news, ND beat Duke by 15
RedlessWardrobe
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Schroeder71 said:

I believe that one reason that the splash sisters are missing so many three-point shots is that they're rushing them. When Lulu is set, she is quite accurate. However, when she tries to hit her shots on the move, they're seldom on target. Ioanna also is accurate when she is alone and ready for her release. When's she moving around screens and trying to hoist up her shots, they are usually not close to going in. I think that our post players need to pass back out when they get double-teamed. It happened early in the last game and the shooter was wide open.
Obviously the case. But of course, the reason they're rushing their three-points is simply because our opponents are all extending further out defensively. They're not rushing them by choice, they're rushing them because they have to. And while the post player kick out idea is decent, it's hard to expect Michelle to kick out when she gets it inside, considering how often we have trouble even getting it to her in the first place. The reason Ioanna and Lulu's 3 point percentage has gone down is more about how our opponents are defending us, less about Ioanna and Lulu themselves.
wvitbear
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I agree Redless. They are extending their defense. Michele has never been a great passer and she is doing very well inside. So to expect her to be a great passer, proably won't work. virginia has a tall team. my guess is they play behind Michele.

On a side note, UVA and Virginia Tech are fairly close in distance. Less thzn 2 hours. Just go out I-64 and Down I-81. I've made that trip several times. May have more time to practice.
ClayK
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It's not complicated: Make players do what they don't want to do.

Lulu and Ioanna want to shoot threes, so make them put the ball on the floor. Until they punish teams for defending them that way, it won't change.

If I'm an opposing coach, I want Suarez to have the ball as much as possible. She can score, but she will turn the ball over and she doesn't make good decisions. Again, if she can beat us, we deserve to lose.
annarborbear
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It sounds like we are tapped out on what we can do athletically. And if that is the case, the only potential improvement would come from more ball movement and passing, with less dribbling, and somehow getting at least some passes back out of the post. Maybe Suarez is the player who could pass it back out more when she penetrates.
RedlessWardrobe
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annarborbear said:

It sounds like we are tapped out on what we can do athletically. And if that is the case, the only potential improvement would come from more ball movement and passing, with less dribbling, and somehow getting at least some passes back out of the post. Maybe Suarez is the player who could pass it back out more when she penetrates.
Which brings us full circle on this thread. While less dribbling is preferred, the one player on the team that should be freed up to dribble is Kayla. She's the one option off the dribble that is favorable to us. With a spread floor against a tight defense it's the one scenario when dribbling that works for us.
gljone
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To a lesser extent, Io can also pick her spots to drive.

I like Kayla to be the penetrator because Io and Lulu can be more catch/shoot (possibly Marta if teams don't leave Io and Lulu, which they should not) and Kayla tends to make a better read. And Michelle can be available for the dump off if the post reacts to Kayla.

Another wrinkle can be Marta to play some high post to where she can play high/low with Michelle or only has to take two dribbles to get to the rim...or if a guard goes to Marta, that may leave a perimeter player open.

I wish the Bears could get more in transition but full circle, part 2: Cal plays with a shortened rotation, so if they're a bit out of wind, running the floor in transition is a challenge.
HoopDreams
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The way to beat an over aggressive, extended D is to pass, or drive by them

Yo can do that depending on defender

Lulu does this on a regular basis, but has a harder time finishing (and teams have scouted her euro step)

Kayla makes the best reads off the drive which need to be in the flow of the drive

Others like Marta too often only pass when they've been stopped and pick up their dribble

Sometimes Yo drives baseline and passes cross to the corner since the weakside defender isn't as tight on our player

If the defender does have a long close out it's easy to drive past them but you need to again read the defense to see if you can make it all the way to the basket
ClayK
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As far as I can tell, Lulu pretty much only goes right. That makes her much much easier to guard because now her defender only has to worry about closing out on the three and keeping her off her right hand. (It's frustrating to me as a coach that players aren't forced to develop a move going both ways.)

You can go down the line on the Cal roster and find ways to defend, just like Lulu. That's the difference between Cal and the teams in the top 10.


RedlessWardrobe
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ClayK said:

As far as I can tell, Lulu pretty much only goes right. That makes her much much easier to guard because now her defender only has to worry about closing out on the three and keeping her off her right hand. (It's frustrating to me as a coach that players aren't forced to develop a move going both ways.)

You can go down the line on the Cal roster and find ways to defend, just like Lulu. That's the difference between Cal and the teams in the top 10.



Agreed. Interesting though, last season often I commented that Marta had trouble using her left hand. Watching her this year she obviously worked on it over the summer. Hopefully we see the same from Lulu this year.
HoopDreams
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before or during a game (and when scouting), it's the first thing I look for if a player can get by you then you/your team are at a huge disadvantage. Once you know a player can only go one direction you can shut down half their threat unless they have a great hesitation, are a great shooter, or have a great step back.

Lulu could also benefit from a hesi or pull up jumper instead of taking it to the rack every time

On offense you need to be able to attack the defenders front foot regardless of which one.

ClayK said:

As far as I can tell, Lulu pretty much only goes right. That makes her much much easier to guard because now her defender only has to worry about closing out on the three and keeping her off her right hand. (It's frustrating to me as a coach that players aren't forced to develop a move going both ways.)

You can go down the line on the Cal roster and find ways to defend, just like Lulu. That's the difference between Cal and the teams in the top 10.



RedlessWardrobe
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HoopDreams said:

before or during a game (and when scouting), it's the first thing I look for if a player can get by you then you/your team are at a huge disadvantage. Once you know a player can only go one direction you can shut down half their threat unless they have a great hesitation, are a great shooter, or have a great step back.

Lulu could also benefit from a hesi or pull up jumper instead of taking it to the rack every time


On offense you need to be able to attack the defenders front foot regardless of which one.

ClayK said:

As far as I can tell, Lulu pretty much only goes right. That makes her much much easier to guard because now her defender only has to worry about closing out on the three and keeping her off her right hand. (It's frustrating to me as a coach that players aren't forced to develop a move going both ways.)

You can go down the line on the Cal roster and find ways to defend, just like Lulu. That's the difference between Cal and the teams in the top 10.




Actually, in the last 3 or 4 games I've noticed that Lulu is attempting to do this. I think she actually only pulled the trigger a couple of times. Hopefully she keeps working on it to the point where she'll be more confident in it and ultimately gets efficient at it.
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