Miami Hurricanes preview and prediction

1,291 Views | 31 Replies | Last: 9 hrs ago by stu
Schroeder71
How long do you want to ignore this user?
It has been a rough season for the Miami Hurricanes (14-14, 4-13). A new head coach, Tricia Cullop, was brought in to turn the program around. She possesses a very successful track record as HC of Toledo for sixteen years.
Only a single starter, senior Jasmyn Roberts, returned from last season. HC Cullop has gone with a veteran rotation of seven players that play 17.5 to 34.8 minutes per game. She brought in four grad transfers and one senior transfer to add to her returning senior. These six players make up the starting lineup and the sixth "man" off of the bench.

3209f521-miami-team.pdf

Surprisingly, the Hurricanes succeeded right away in their non-conference games with a 10-1 record. Their only loss was to Vandy of the SEC. Miami actually opened ACC play with a road victory at Pitt, 62-56, to begin 11-1. Thereafter, it was like the team played two different seasons with the step up in ACC competition too much to handle. After the opening win at Pitt, they floundered in the conference with only 3 wins in 16 games.

Today, several of these players might be participating in their final college game and I'm sure that they would like to go out with a bang. It would mean a lot to this group if they could upset Cal and end up with a winning overall record of 15-14. It's also Cal's senior day with half (7) of its roster taking part in senior ceremonies. Emotions should be running high at 2 pm this afternoon.

06d67f-acc-stats-10.pdf

The story of the abrupt turnaround in ACC play has been a weak defense. The Hurricanes have been outscored by close to ten points on average. The Stanford game last Thursday night was typical. Both teams shot over 50% for the game and the halftime score was 45-44. In the second half, Stanford asserted themselves and ran away from visitors. The Cardinal hit 14 three-pointers on the night to separate from their opposition. The Cavinder twins were the two top scorers for the Hurricanes w/ 35 points combined or 51% of their offense.

The Cavinder twins transferred from Fresno State to the state of Florida two years ago. Haley & Hanna are familiar with playing well against both Bay Area schools while at Fresno State. Three seasons (2021-22) ago, Fresno State visited Cal in Berkeley. The Cavinders went off that day for 42 combined points or 58% of the Bulldog's offense. Haley scored 24 and Hanna added 18. I remember that game well and it really felt like those two sisters were in control. The twins have a sixth sense of communication between them and Hanna is an excellent passer to Haley instantaneously in anticipation of her moves such as back-door plays, etc.

Women's Basketball University of Miami Athletics

I will briefly highlight Miami's seven player rotation:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Haley Cavinder (#14) is a 5-6 combo guard that is the #1 offensive threat with 18.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per contest. She is tops in threes made w/ 45 and also leads the team in assists (4.67/g). Haley is 3rd in steals (24). Cameron Williams (#44) is a 6-3 PF grad transfer from Michigan. She leads the team in rebounding with 7.1 and is 2nd in scoring w/ 11.7 points per game. The #3 scorer is the returning senior 5-10 SG Jasmyn Roberts (#4) who averages 10.0 points and is the team's top defender with 42 steals. She also is 4th in treys (22).
The other grad transfer post is 6-5 Natalija Marshall (#21) from Notre Dame. Marshall is the top shot blocker w/ 16. She adds 7.8 points to the offense and 4.7 boards on average. She is 3rd in treys with 28! The point guard, 5-6 Hanna Cavinder (#15), is key to this offense! Hanna contributes 4.18 assists and 7.0 points to the offense. She is 5th in three-pointers with 20 & 4th in steals (21).

The sixth "man" is a 5-11 senior transfer SG from Mississippi State, Darrione Rogers (#8). Rogers is the designated three-point specialist on the Hurricanes with 41 and is the most accurate (39%) threat. Highly rated freshman, Ahnay Adams (#5), has found a role as "instant energy" off of the bench and has become a defensive specialist with 30 steals. ESPN HoopGurlz rated her the #37 prospect in the nation. Adams is another 5-6 PG stereotype of the Cavinder twins.

In summary, the Miami Hurricanes only force 12.4 turnovers per game. They are also weak in three-point defense. Cal should be able to run their offense and control the boards to triumph on Senior Day, 77-62.
GO BEARS!


wvitbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Weren't the Cavender twins there last year?
Schroeder71
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cavinder twins graduated as seniors and sat out last year.
Woodacre
How long do you want to ignore this user?
For what it's worth..Cal is favored by 11.5. Hmm. Miami is playing for a post season spot…
wvitbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I saw the twins several years ago when they played Cal.
GATC
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wvitbear said:

I saw the twins several years ago when they played Cal.


I remember, too. I think they played for Fresno State then. They were one of the first influencers.
Schroeder71
How long do you want to ignore this user?
GATC-you're correct about Haley becoming "an influencer". I'm not into that stuff so it was easy for me not to recall that fact. Great knowledge-that's what they did last year when they didn't play college basketball.
RedlessWardrobe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Great stuff S71. Really appreciate your previews for the entire season, and I look forward to your post season previews as well. Thank you.
Finnish Oski
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Quote:

Great stuff S71. Really appreciate your previews for the entire season, and I look forward to your post season previews as well. Thank you.
Agreed. Always look forward to them.
Woodacre
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4 of the 5 completed ACC games today saw the home team lose on Senior Day, including North Carolina to Virginia. And Tennessee lost at home to a very bad Georgia team…I'm nervous today…
BearSD
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Woodacre said:

4 of the 5 completed ACC games today saw the home team lose on Senior Day, including North Carolina to Virginia. And Tennessee lost at home to a very bad Georgia team…I'm nervous today…
Hopefully UVa won't play as well in Greensboro this week. They are the Bears' likely opponent on Thursday afternoon.
HoopDreams
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Refs letting them play today

Q1 had very few fouls both ways
Schroeder71
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cal leads by 6 at end of 1st quarter. How can Bears leave Haley Cavinder uncovered for back-to-back threes? Both Krimili and Twidale are scoreless versus the 5-6 Cavinder twins. All the seniors look ok except for Krimili. She has been taken out with zero stats and a terrible foul at the end of the shot clock. Her two trey attempts have not been close.

Cal on track for 80 with a 40-29 halftime lead. Nobody has more than 1 PF and the Bears are dominating the boards (20-9) and inside scoring. Krimili has been invisible for Cal being defended mostly by Hanna Cavinder. It appears that Haley Cavinder can get her shot anytime that she wishes. She's on track for 24. Bear's only problem is their chronic problem of turnovers. Cal has nine already. Kayla Williams went without an assist last game and has zero assists at intermission.

Surprisingly, the splash sisters have been shutout from three-point land. I don't recall that happening often.

Good news-the splash sisters awakened with two treys each in the 3rd quarter. GO BEARS!
Woodacre
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Interesting. I focus instead on limiting a team to almost 70 points a game to just 15 in the first quarter, regardless of who scores them
gljone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bears are getting the better physical play.

Marta, despite a couple of the usual TOs, can get whatever she wants today...

Michelle? Beast.

And this without much production from Lulu and Io...although Lulu does have 4 helpers.

Io has not really had any open looks so far.

Cal is crushing Miami on the boards. If Cal stays with the scoring Cavinder and makes it tough on her, Cal should prevail.
HoopDreams
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Michelle is dominating and that last foul on her was with their 6-5 player practically assaulting her
MoragaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Cal's playing really well tonight, especially Michelle who's probably done for the day with 26 points on 12-14 shooting and 10 boards. Marta's had a great game, too, with 16 points and 10 boards and she's now done for the day.

As a side note, really glad they turned down the mic people's mics this week for men's and women's games. It was absolutely piercing volume before this week but it's just fine now.
MafDen
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The bears are well on their way to victory over Miami. Congratulations on a terrific regular season. Go BEARS
BearBint
How long do you want to ignore this user?
No Cardiac Cal today; Palms of Victory!
"Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
Schroeder71
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cal played well today. The record of 24-7 overall and 16-1 at home is unprecedented in the last decade or so.
Marta Suarez's behavior was *identical* to all of the departing seniors so does that mean she's gone? I hope not.

Lulu Twidale had one-third (5) of the team's TOs. Three were blind passes on the screen 'n roll to Onyiah without taking a look at the defense. This can be fixed by simply glancing as to whether the receiver is open or defended one-on-one. On at least two of the occasions, she threw passes into double-teams.

My prediction was 77-62 and the final was 82-63. Their reserves easily scored layups against our freshmen and outscored the Bear five froshies by 9 points. Only one Cal freshman scored: Kamryn Mafua (5 points)

Bears will likely meet UVA on Thursday. GO BEARS!
HoopDreams
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Lulu also had 6 assists
Schroeder71
How long do you want to ignore this user?
HD-you're correct that her intentions are good for many assists in the future. She has the correct mentality, but she needs to look prior to making her passes.
CalFanatic
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24-7! What an incredible season. Now let's make some noise in the postseason.
Finnish Oski
How long do you want to ignore this user?
What a fun season, what a fun team. Loved this group. So nice to see a big crowd today. It's what winning does for you. Only one home loss. Considering where the program was a few years ago this is a really heart warming story. I'm going to miss Michelle, Io, Kayla and, if she doesn't;t come back, Marta.
Great game today. The comfortable win allowed Charmin to take the seniors off one at a time. I loved Michelle bowing to the crowd. She was feeling it today, one of her best performances and only two fouls. Hopefully more wins to come.
P.S. Thanks to everyone here who make up this forum. It's great to cyber hang out with women's basketball fans all year and especially in season. There have been squabbles along the way but that's typical of families, even Bear families.
HairOfTheBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Schroeder71 said:

HD-you're correct that her intentions are good for many assists in the future. She has the correct mentality, but she needs to look prior to making her passes.
I too have noticed that LuLu does this maybe every game I have I watched and she is not the only one does it, but seems most common with her. Often these passes occur near the top of the key or 3 pt arc and the other team is usually off to the races. Some players have an uncanny ability to court map most or all of the players on the court and those that excel at that are able to make passes like this more successfully. I guess if she just stopped making that pass blindly or at least glancing first, she could reduce her turnovers.

I should also say, I love LuLu and I agree, she has good intentions with her passing. I am hoping she can just fine tune little and help herself and the team a little bit extra.
gljone
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Lulu's passes into the paint can sometimes be pretty careless...whether the play is there or not, she just lobs it towards Michelle. At times, the Bears get away with it because it's over the defenders. Today, two or three feel short and the defense could knock the pass away.

When Michelle has position and seals her defender sometimes the correct type of pass isn't made (bounce pass versus lob versus direct) and the Bears are at risk of a live ball TO.

But...enough times the ball gets to Michelle for a high percentage shot, so I guess this is why they keep doing it. When the play isn't there, just reverse the ball and try again...but Cal does have a tendency to try to force a pass when it isn't there.

That being said, only 15 TOs for the Bears. Very acceptable.

The scoring Cavinder was the only Hurricane to have numbers. Cal made her a volume scorer, her 16 points coming on 17 FGAs. I'll take that. No other Miami player was a true threat.

Conversely, Michelle and Marta got what they wanted all game. Double/doubles for both with Io and Lulu chipping in theirs in the 2nd half.

Michelle: TWO fouls in each of the last two games. Production? 50 points/20 rebounds and Cal scores 79 and 82 respectively. Beast.

The key was Cal got off to a strong start again, never giving Miami any hope. Cal had a counter for everything Miami threw at them.

I think Charmin was very conscious of giving the players their rightful sendoffs. Michelle worked the crowd up near the end of her Q4 stint. All the players received warm ovations and well deserved.

It was a pleasure watching this team improve over the past two seasons. They play with grit, they play for each other and the play with joy. Can't ask for more, but then they win 24 games and go 16-1 at home. And they played well in conference play on the road, holding their own despite having to make four trips to the East Coast (with a fifth coming).

Go Bears!



annarborbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
  • 24 wins is the team's highest total in a decade - 2015 -season.
BearBint
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Quote:

I think Charmin was very conscious of giving the players their rightful sendoffs. Michelle worked the crowd up near the end of her Q4 stint. All the players received warm ovations and well deserved.

It was a pleasure watching this team improve over the past two seasons. They play with grit, they play for each other and the play with joy. Can't ask for more, but then they win 24 games and go 16-1 at home. And they played well in conference play on the road, holding their own despite having to make four trips to the East Coast (with a fifth coming).

Go Bears!
Good report-essay, gljone--sums up what I love about collegiate WBB.
"Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
stu
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Despite all the noise about the Cavinder twins we held them to 7 of 20 from the field and just 2 free throws. A good defensive day.

For a good part of the game Michelle and Marta outscored the entire Miami team. We ended up with 36 points in the paint and 36 points on threes - can't get better balance than that.

Nice crowd and nice sendoff for the seniors. Now what will I do until November?
BearBint
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Quote:


Nice crowd and nice sendoff for the seniors. Now what will I do until November?
The WNBA, with our very own local team. (I'm somewhat put off by getting to Chase with a companion who has some difficulty walking distances. But we'll manage afternoon games, and there will be Valkyrie practices at Oracle.)
"Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
BearBint
How long do you want to ignore this user?
A little something in Michelle's honor: https://gulfof.mapquest.com/?name=Oniyah


"Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
stu
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearBint said:

Quote:


Nice crowd and nice sendoff for the seniors. Now what will I do until November?
The WNBA, with our very own local team. (I'm somewhat put off by getting to Chase with a companion who has some difficulty walking distances. But we'll manage afternoon games, and there will be Valkyrie practices at Oracle.)
Pro sports aren't my thing but I may try the Valkyries if ticket prices don't get too crazy. Fortunately I can walk from BART to Chase with no problems. For those who would rather not walk that far the T streetcar (from Powell St BART) stops less then a block from Chase.
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.