In case you don't follow Marissa Sisk's daily email, Her Hoop Stats, here's what she said today:
Before we move on to a full tournament preview, a few notes:
- I compared my preseason poll and that of the entire Blue Ribbon panel, to how teams actually finished, Our mutual worst miss was overestimating Miami in year 1 of the Tricia Cullop era. I expected the Hurricanes to finish 11th, a miss of five slots over their 16th-place finish, while the panel overestimated them by eight slots.
- The panel's second-worst miss was by seven slots, as No. 7 Cal was only expected by the panel to finish 14th. I only missed their slot by one, voting them eighth.
- My second-worst misses were a quartet of 3-slot misses, as I overestimated Syracuse and underestimated Pitt, Virginia Tech and Virginia.
- I tracked all season how teams fared going two-plus time zones away. Home teams won an overwhelming 75% of such games, with identical 12-4 records in both the first and second games of those trips. North Carolina, which was perfect in true road games on the season until the rivalry trip up the road to Duke, was the only team to sweep such a road trip.
7-seed RV
California (11-6 ACC, 24-7 overall)
Picked 14th in the preseason poll
In its first year in a new conference, the Golden Bears have already improved their overall record by four wins before the postseason even starts. They exceeded expectations, finishing seventh in the ACC after being picked 14th in the preseason poll.
"We knew we were better than that," head coach Charmin Smith said. "I think it's a conference that wasn't really familiar with Cal basketball... We have set goals for ourselves… finishing in the top half of the ACC and positioning ourselves for the NCAA tournament."
As for what's led to her team's success this season, which included sweeping Bay Area foe
Stanford for the first time in 39 years and wins against three teams with top-30 HHS ratings, Smith said balance, 3-point shooting and
Michelle Onyiah staying on the floor and out of foul trouble.
The Golden Bears are the
only team in the country with five players averaging at least 11 points, 2.5 rebounds and half a steal per game, and one of just 10 with four such players (side note: the ACC occupies four of those 10 slots). They are also the only team with two players in the
top 10 in the conference in 3-point percentage (min. 150 3PA) in
Ioanna Krimili and
Lulu Twidale.
As for staying out of foul trouble, when Onyiah had four or more fouls, Cal's winning percentage was 64.7%, but when she fouled three or fewer times and Smith could keep her on the floor, it was 92.3%.Cal will face either
Pitt or
Virginia, both of whom the Golden Bears defeated this season, by 31 and six, respectively.
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