Sagarin's not doing it this year, and this is the only current computer rankings site I've found:
http://www.sonnymoorepowerratings.com/w-basket.htm

Not sure how valid his methodology is, but it's certainly better than the RPI (which the NCAA Selection Committee uses) and the AP/Coaching rankings.

Five elite teams, with roughly equal chances to win it all, are rated in the 91.73-94.25 Range: Notre Dame, Baylor, Connecticut, Oregon, Mississippi St.

Five 2nd-tier teams, who could get lucky enough to win it all, are rated in the 84.86-88.69 range: Marquette, Louisville, Stanford, Iowa St., Oregon St.

32 more teams are clustered in the 74.10-81.40 range, hoping to make a good tournament runs against other strong teams, could get to Sweet 16 or Elite 8 after avoiding the 8 and 9 Seeds of Death.

Pac-12:
#4 Oregon
#8 Stanford (Has the 4th toughest SOS by Moore's calculations, tied with Cal)
#10 Oregon St.
#20 Arizona St.
#22 Utah (Strength of Schedule killing them on the RPI...#65)
#25 UCLA (Has the 2nd toughest SOS by Moore's calculations)
#31 California (Has the 4th toughest SOS by Moore's calculations, tied with Stanford)
#41 USC
#43 Arizona (Needs a signature win vs. Oregon on Friday to have a shot at NCAA...#73 RPI currently)

#80 Washington St. (Cal favored by 3.86 @ WSU by this site's methodology)
#92 Colorado
#115 Washington (Cal favored by 7.51 @ Washington)

The last two games will be tough, especially WSU on their Senior Day. Nothing is easy in this conference.


The ACC looks a little stronger than the Pac-12 on the RPI, but a little weaker on the Sonny Moore computer rankings:

#1 Notre Dame
#7 Louisville
#12 NC State
#14 Syracuse
#19 Miami
#30 North Carolina
#32 Florida St.
#46 Virginia Tech (#62 RPI)
#49 Clemson (#41 RPI)
#55 Georgia Tech (#40 RPI)
#65 Duke (#84 RPI)
#99 Virginia
#104 Boston College
#139 Wake Forest
#156 Pittsburgh

RPI: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi

The nice thing about the wins over the Arizona schools is that as long as we win one of the next two games we will finish 7th in the conference since Arizona has to face the Oregon schools. We could even end up tied for 6th with Utah if they lose both games to the LA schools and we win the next two games.

Utah will be there. lol

How is Indiana in? or Michigan and even Rutgers?

RPI is a joke. S.O.S. is a joke?

I like Massey ratings which understands. lol

Utah played Seattle who is 1-25, 1-25 and might finish 1-27 ish.

Seattle went to the big dance last year, who knew they would be so bad this year, Webber State was also better last year. As bad as Utah's S.O.S. is they have 9 Pac-12 wins.

Overall any tournament that simply allows a team into it's tournament just because they win a conference tournament and claims to only want the best is besides me.

Seriously if Seattle wins 4 games in it's conference tournament they are in the NCAA bracket at a 5-27 ish record?

Just the thought should have basketball purist shaking in their sneakers.

Okay don't take me too serious.

Kookiebean said:

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Utah will be there. lol

How is Indiana in? or Michigan and even Rutgers?

RPI is a joke. S.O.S. is a joke?

I like Massey ratings which understands. lol

Utah played Seattle who is 1-25, 1-25 and might finish 1-27 ish.

Seattle went to the big dance last year, who knew they would be so bad this year, Webber State was also better last year. As bad as Utah's S.O.S. is they have 9 Pac-12 wins.

Overall any tournament that simply allows a team into it's tournament just because they win a conference tournament and claims to only want the best is besides me.

Seriously if Seattle wins 4 games in it's conference tournament they are in the NCAA bracket at a 5-27 ish record?

Just the thought should have basketball purist shaking in their sneakers.

Okay don't take me too serious.

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Thanks for reminding me about Massey, which also break down into offensive and defensive ratings:
https://www.masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratings

#6 Oregon (2 offense/37 defense)
#7 Stanford (15/11)
#8 OSU (18/15)
#18 ASU (75/2)
#20 UCLA (19/60)
#27 Utah (21/67)
#31 California (24/102)
#42 USC (37/63)
#48 Arizona (62/45)
#102 Washington St. (64/154)
#110 Colorado (113/105)
#124 Washington (106/133)

Most computer rankings reward teams for blowouts.
Baylor has wins by 61, 61, & 58 this season, against the #213, #235, & #258 ranked teams, which helps make them #1 by Massey defensively and overall.
One of the few good things about RPI is that it doesn't reward sadism.

The selection committee uses RPI as a basis, then places the most emphasis on quality wins. Utah looks good when you factor in blowouts against weak teams. They look bad on the things the committee measures.

Utah could be in trouble if they lose at UCLA and USC this weekend.
Their home win against Stanford would be their only Quadrant 1 win.
Their RPI would be about 70.
Their only road wins would be at #217 Nevada, #187 Eastern Washington, #144 Washington St., #157 Washington & #165 Colorado.
They'd be 9-9 in the Pac-12, but would only have had to play Oregon, Stanford and Oregon St. once each.

Cal made the 2017 tournament because of 3 Quality Wins, which overrode a 6-12 Pac-12 record, and an RPI ranking of 74 (iirc). I don't think having just 1 QW would cut it for Utah.

Just thinking out loud, I hope both teams make it.

If your scenario of Utah is true 20 Wins?
6th place tie with Cal, if Cal wins vs Washington schools.
Both Utah and Cal would be 9 and 9.

Utah beat Cal, how would Cal beat out Utah for NCAA?
Plus Utah would play Wash, WSU or Col in conference tournament and Cal plays USC. That would make Utah at 21 wins and Cal only 19 wins if they both win with a chance for more.

Kookiebean said:

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Just thinking out loud, I hope both teams make it.

If your scenario of Utah is true 20 Wins?
6th place tie with Cal, if Cal wins vs Washington schools.
Both Utah and Cal would be 9 and 9.

Utah beat Cal, how would Cal beat out Utah for NCAA?
Plus Utah would play Wash, WSU or Col in conference tournament and Cal plays USC. That would make Utah at 21 wins and Cal only 19 wins if they both win with a chance for more.

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Utah beat Cal. Cal beat Stanford. Stanford beat Baylor. Utah should be #1, right?
Of course not. The full schedule matters, and quality wins especially matter to the selection committee.

Cal lost at Utah. Utah didn't play at Cal.
Cal has 4 quality wins, while Utah has just 1.
Cal is #38 RPI. Utah is #65 RPI.

UAB is 22-5, but #104 RPI.
Florida Gulf Coast is 23-4, but RPI #72 and hasn't beaten anyone good.
It matters who you beat. Neither will make the tourney if they don't win their conference tournaments.

I hope Utah picks up a win in So. Cal. this weekend and makes the tournament. I also hope Cal finishes strong and gets a 6 seed with a relatively weak 3 seed in their region.

thx for the posts

are we safely in the Dance?

HoopDreams said:

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are we safely in the Dance?

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I'm waiting till Sunday since Pac-12 road games will always be tough.

the dreaded 9 seed in the latest

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology?utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=http%3a%2f%2fwww.espn.com%2fwomens-college-basketball%2fbracketology&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-pac-12-hotline-nl

Seeing the usual ESPN bias on that bracketology.

Pac-12 teams underrated (#19 ASU an 8???).
SEC overrated (#68 LSU in over #37 Kansas State???).

Cal should be a 7 if we can win our next 3, and perhaps a 6 if we knock off one of the big 3 in Las Vegas.
We're 38 now on the RPI, but have more quality wins than most of the teams above us, and mid-majors usually get downgraded by the committee. If we stumble, we're probably looking at an 8 or 9.

One of my points was Utah has 9 wins already but not even considered, Cal only has 7 conference wins and they are in?

Both Cal and Utah could go into conference tournament with 9 wins and Utah with more wins overall. Cal still gets in?

The system is ringed.

Kookiebean said:

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One of my points was Utah has 9 wins already but not even considered, Cal only has 7 conference wins and they are in?

Both Cal and Utah could go into conference tournament with 9 wins and Utah with more wins overall. Cal still gets in?

The system is ringed.

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It would be a real shame if Utah doesn't get in. Beating us in the head to head match and having the same conference record (if everything goes wrong) are good arguments even if the conference schedule is easier.

You started off so well (18-1 IIRC) but I think you lost just enough with the injury that was the difference in many of your heart breaking losses (the 2 to ASU come to mind). It is amazing how competitive the conference has become. We were picked for 4th before the season started and I predicted 6th after we played a few games but we will be lucky to finish 7th even with the great wins over ASU and Arizona. I guess 6th is still a remote possibility.

But the key is if we play like we did in the first half against ASU and Arizona, we'll be lucky to win one game in the tournament. If we play like we did in the 2nd half, we will go far. A fellow long time Cal WBB fan said that Caldwell took control in the 2nd half of the Arizona games like Boyd used to do. I agree with that.

I hope Cal gets in

USC got cheated last 2 years. Strength of Schedule is not a accurate assessment. There will be conference champs in tournament with RPI and SOS over 180. lol


Not upset at all, just brining up points very few people acknowledge.

I hope Cal gets in.

Utah could win 2 more game and still not get in yet have better conference records than Cal, UCLA and ASU.

Kookiebean said:

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The system is ringed.

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The system is rigged to favor power conference teams, like Utah, but the Utes probably haven't scheduled or won enough difficult games to justify inclusion.

Utah is certainly under consideration, but realize that if they had to play OSU, Oregon and Stanford twice this season instead of the Washington schools they'd possibly end up 6-12, rather than 9-9. The committee pays attention to who you play and the best teams you beat.

Utah got the home win against Stanford.
BYU is #27 now, and if they stay above 30 it will be a 2nd Quadrant 1 win for the Utes.

Beating UCLA or USC this week would probably be enough to get them in the tournament, over these teams with better records and RPIs than #65 Utah (20-7):
#51 New Mexico 21-4
#54 Bucknell 22-5

According to Bracketology, these teams need to win their conference tournaments to get in as 11 seeds.
#34 Miami of Ohio 21-4
#35 Rice 23-3
#36 James Madison 22-4

And these as 12 seeds:
#52 Quinnipiac 21-6
#57 Boise St. 21-4
#60 Belmont 22-5

And these as 13 seeds:
#59 Lamar 21-5
#64 Wright St. 22-6

All of them have more conference wins than Utah.
None of them have more quality wins than #38 Cal.

#65 Utah, #50 USC, and #72 Arizona fans should:
Root against #68 LSU, the last at large team on bracketology, against Mississippi St. and Auburn.
Root against #47 Auburn (just 2 weak quadrant 1 wins) against South Carolina.
Root against #30 Missouri at #89 Arkansas to deny Auburn the second quadrant 1 win.
Root against all 3 in the SEC tournament.

Root against #37 Kansas St. (1st out on bracketology) against West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St.
Root against #72 West Virginia (2nd out on bracketology) against Kansas and Baylor.
Root against both in the Big 12 tournament.

Root against #55 Butler (3rd out on bracketology) against Georgetown and Villanova.

#50 USC (with 2 quadrant 1 wins) deserves to be in ahead of LSU and Auburn, IMO, but isn't listed in the first 8 out on bracketology. Their game against Utah could decide who gets a 7th Pac-12 berth. With a win, USC would be 7-11, with a sweep of Utah and 6 games against the top-3, vs. Utah's 3.

Utah is probably a better team than USC. A Utah win would give them a third quadrant 1 win and an RPI boost, but they haven't beaten anyone significant on the road yet.

R90 said:

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Seeing the usual ESPN bias on that bracketology.

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ESPN is bad that way. We mustn't forget that when K.A. was a freshie, THREE whole people there voted Stewart national POY (fair enough), Auriemma national COY (also fair enough), and Samuelson FOY (close to ridiculous). Fortunately, the U.S. Basketball Writers Association, who are more than a trio, made the right choice:

https://www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Cal-s-Kristine-Anigwe-named-National-Freshman-7226009.php

Thank You for a tremendous analysis for both CAL and Utah.

I also like this bracket

https://highposthoops.com/2019/02/28/womens-basketball-bracketology-oregon-stanford/