Current early ESPN bracketology has Kentucky as a #3 seed and Arkansas as a #5 seed. Pretty amazing that we have beaten one and taken the other down to the wire.

Hard to believe we are not there. Is Kansas better than us? Or Oklahoma who just got whacked by Conn.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Creme also has Colorado as one of the first 4 out (based on their so-far perfect record against some non-strong teams?). I don't give this stuff much credence so early in the season.

I don't think Charlie put a lot of thought into this one. His bracket is not at all in line with the data. Granted, the data is going to change a lot going forward, but I don't think he bothered to predict that either.

Massey Ranking and (Bracketology Seed):
#3 Oregon (1)
#5 Oregon St. (1)
#6 UCLA (3)
#8 Stanford (2)
#19 Arizona (5)
#33 Arizona St. (8)
#35 Colorado (First Four Out)
#48 California
#65 Washington St.
#67 USC
#79 Washington
#90 Utah

Any of these teams can make the tournament with good conference seasons. Their seeding will depend on final RPIs and Quadrant 1 wins.

Current RPIs and (Quadrant 1 wins) so far
#3 Stanford (3)
#5 Oregon St. (3)
#11 UCLA (3)
#19 Oregon (1)
#43 Colorado (0)
#54 Arizona St. (1)
#56 Arizona (@Texas)
#58 California (Arkansas #51 needs to improve to #30 or better)
#81 Washington St. (0)
#99 USC (Virgina)
#106 Washington (vs.Iowa #18)
#194 Utah (0)

This is a starting point. Teams will move up and down relative to each other as the conference schedule unfolds. Pac-12 teams will move up on average because the conference as a whole did so well in the non-conference season.

Conference average RPIs and (win percentages)
0.5953 Pac-12 (83%)
0.5842 Big Ten (78%)
0.5801 ACC (67%)
0.5729 SEC (73%)
0.5695 Big 12 (79%)
0.5630 Big East (61%)

All but the Big East should move up substantially on average. The win percentage is especially important in determining how much the average RPI will improve in conference play.

Cal will need a couple quality wins and probably an 8-12 record in conference (including the tournament) or better.

It helps a lot that we only play the Zonas (on the road) and the La Las (at home) once. The Zonas and UCLA are achievable quality wins, while the risk/reward would have been worse with a different schedule.

It helps everyone else if the teams at the bottom of the conference, that aren't going to get in, are sacrificial lambs.

Cal will have the opportunity to compete against ranked (& high RPI) teams within the Pac 12. It will interesting to see if the Bears can defeat some of the other bottom six in the conference [Colorado, Utah, USC, Washington, Washington State]. Also, Oregon, Oregon State & Stanford look relatively invincible this year but UCLA, ASU & Arizona do not seem unbeatable (IMO). I doubt that the latter two possess superior talent to Kentucky and/or Arkansas.

I examined our league schedule and the Bears only face the Southern California schools & Arizona teams once this season. The SoCal teams travel up to Berkeley but Cal must travel to Arizona to face that tandem. Every other team we face twice (home & away)...Too bad we have to play the Oregon schools twice and, of course, Stanford, right at the beginning. I noticed that Dijonai Carrington has missed a half dozen games and was in street clothes yesterday at Texas. I hope that she is still out when Cal-Stanford matchup in three weeks. GO BEARS!

Schroeder71 said:

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I noticed that Dijonai Carrington has missed a half dozen games and was in street clothes yesterday at Texas. I hope that she is still out when Cal-Stanford matchup in three weeks.

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I hope all players on both sides are healthy.

The major problem is that even though the Pac 12 is seen as the strongest conference, they only have them down for 6 teams making the Dance. thats tied with the Big 12 which only is a ten team conference. Does anyone believe the are the equal of the Pac 12? It is also one less than the SEC and the ACC ( they have 7) and both are weak this year. Cal beat Arkansas and took Ken. to overtime two of their better teams. The ACC has Louisville and that's it. Now the real killer is the Big 10 getting 9 slots. You have to be kidding.

The problem will be just like last season when they sort of had the Pac 12 locked into a certain amount of slots and the last two spots became musical chairs as the season wore on. All the teams not named Oregon, UCLA Oregon st and Stanford were fighting each other for the last two positions. They did not do that with the other conferences. In fact, they picked up slots as the season wore on. I am talking about the SEC where a really bad Tenn still got invited. The Pac 12 had the best record out of all the conferences while teams from the ones that got more invites got knocked out early and often.

Way too early but it's the holiday season so why not dream big and wish, I guess.

Once conference play starts, Cal will have to fight each and every game for a victory. They've prepared for this and have the right mind set. Fans will be gutted never the less.

It is always great to make it into the tournament. But if you get a low seed, you will be facing a highly ranked team early on, and likely an early exit. Sweet Sixteen should be the real goal for the longer-term. However, this year, no matter what the seed, it would be a real accomplishment for this team after being picked for 11th in the conference.

The selection process is pretty clear: Quality wins and RPI for individual teams guide it.

It's absolutely not a matter of how many teams a conference should get. We're competing with other teams in conference to boost our relative RPIs to try and make the cut.

Once in the tournament, any team can beat any other team. Obviously facing an elite squad with a 1 or 2 seed hurts your odds.

Everyone brings their best. If the ball bounces your way enough you'll win. Making the Sweet Sixteen in a given year is a measure of luck as much as it is a measure of program strength.

Enjoy the games. Enjoy the passion.