2017-2018 Season: Women's Swimming

solobear
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The ranking including last chance trial has been posted since yesterday.
https://www.usaswimming.org/Home/times/ncaa-information/ncaa-division-i/di-top-times-report

-- Sophie K-Z should move up from 41st to 39th and should be invited because Erika Brown and Louise Hansson wouldn't swim 100 BK.
-- Chenoa Devine should move up from 40th to 39th since Ella Eastin probably wouldn't swim 500 FR.
bearz012
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

So close...may just miss the cut?
13. Maija Roses - #41 in the 100 Breast (1:00.42) ***<-- EDIT/CORRECTION, as a 52.56 would easily top Lilly King's 56.30 and even Josh Prenot's 52.57!!! haha

Have based the above categories on the likely NCAA invite cutoff #, which has historical hovered between 38 to 41 for the women's events, i.e. #37 should get in.

There may be additional shifts (bumps in the down direction) pending any last-chance time trials. Once the official invites have been sent, there will be several declines that would work in favour of those on the borderline - i.e. really cheering for Maija to deservedly be rewarded here before she officially becomes a "swammer"!
As of today (2/26/2018), she ranks 44th in the 100 breast, and 50th in the 200. Since the only swimmer that I could find who was ranked that probably wasn't going to swim the 100 at NCAA's was Bethany Galat (would swim the 400 IM), she's unfortunately not going to make it
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Some impressive additions from the 2017-2018 season to these 2 Cal lists below...and our Bears haven't raced NCAAs yet! ">

Quite a sizeable contingent of our less heralded / lower-profile team members also dropped some significant lifetime bests, with several frosh scoring in A, B & C finals @ 2018 Pac-12s...

Great progress & encouraging development, well done all!!

1,2,3...Go Bears! 1,2,3...Go Bears! 1,2,3...Go Bears!




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California All-Time Top 10 List

http://calbears.com/documents/2018/2/26/WSD_all_time_top_10_list_02_24_18.pdf


50-Yard Freestyle
4. Amy Bilquist ............................................21.74..............2018

100-Yard Freestyle
1. Abbey Weitzeil .........................................46.63..............2018

200-Yard Freestyle
10. Robin Neumann .................................1:43.38..............2018

500-Yard Freestyle
10. Chenoa Devine ...................................4:40.62..............2018

200-Yard Backstroke
3. Kathleen Baker ....................................1:48.27..............2018

100-Yard Breaststroke
3. Ali Harrison .............................................59.52..............2018
8. Maija Roses.........................................1:00.42..............2018

200-Yard Breaststroke
4. Ali Harrison ..........................................2:10.56..............2018
6. Maija Roses.........................................2:10.86..............2018

100-Yard Butterfly
7. Katie McLaughlin.....................................51.17..............2018

200-Yard Individual Medley
6. Sarah Darcel ........................................1:54.50..............2018
8. Keaton Blovad ......................................1:55.72..............2018

400-Yard Individual Medley
2. Sarah Darcel ........................................4:03.00..............2018

200-Yard Free Relay
2. Maddie Murphy (21.96), Amy Bilquist (21.24), Katie McLaughlin (21.67), Abbey Weitzeil (21.00) ........................................................1:25.87 ......2018

9. Maddie Murphy (22.35), Amy Bilquist (21.67), Valerie Hull (21.78), Abbey Weitzeil (21.30) .................................................................1:27.10 ......2018

400-Yard Free Relay
1. Amy Bilquist (47.79), Katie McLaughlin (47.43), Kathleen Baker (47.47), Abbey Weitzeil (46.35) ........................................................3:09.04 ......2018

6. Amy Bilquist (47.94), Katie McLaughlin (47.91), Valerie Hull (48.47), Abbey Weitzeil (46.63) ..............................................................3:10.95 ......2018

800-Yard Free Relay
4. Robin Neumann (1:43.38), Kathleen Baker (1:43.29), Katie McLaughlin (1:43.29), Amy Bilquist (1:42.66) ..........................................6:52.62 ......2018

200-Yard Medley Relay
2. Kathleen Baker (23.59), Abbey Weitzeil (26.58), Noemie Thomas (22.74), Amy Bilquist (21.22) ..........................................................1:34.13 ......2018

5. Amy Bilquist (24.14), Abbey Weitzeil (26.62), Noemie Thomas (22.45), Katie McLaughlin (21.63) .......................................................1:35.04 ......2018

400-Yard Medley Relay
1. Kathleen Baker (50.21), Ali Harrison (59.06), Noemie Thomas (50.20), Abbey Weitzeil (46.00) ...........................................................3:25.50 ......2018


1-Meter Diving
3. Briana Thai ...........................................296.33..............2018
9. Jackie Im ..............................................276.53..............2018
10. Alexa Cacao ........................................274.95..............2018

3-Meter Diving
5. Briana Thai ...........................................312.50..............2018

Platform Diving
3. Briana Thai ...........................................256.60..............2018
7. Kathleen Navas .....................................239.60..............2018


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2017-18 California Season-Best List

http://calbears.com/documents/2018/2/26/17_18_WSD_best_times_list_02_24_18.pdf


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Added:

http://instagr.am/p/BfuEFy5DGcH

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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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WHO GOT FASTER? IMPROVEMENT AT D1 WOMEN'S CONFERENCE MEETS

So how do we measure who dropped the most time? It's a more complicated question than it seems. First the methodology I used.

  • Grab every conference and nationals time from the last 4 years
  • Find a swimmer's previous best time in an event at a conference or national meet
  • For times at conference meets this year, compare to a swimmer's previous best conference/nationals time. If there is no previous best time move on

There are pros and cons to this method. By limiting previous best times to conference and nationals, we can be pretty sure that the swimmers baseline time was a rested swim that they were focused on. This method has the downside of leaving out best times achieved at mid season meets

Another flaw is that freshman performing extremely well makes a team do worse in this metric. Fast freshman times mean that swimmer's baseline times are better, so it's harder to drop time from them. Also because high school and club times aren't included, team's don't get credit for freshman PR's. Similarly, slow freshman times followed by fast times later will make a team look good.

The fact that nationals may be a bigger target meet for A&M than SEC's makes this performance more impressive. Other teams who are definitely focused on nationals are Stanford and California. Stanford managed to drop time on average (.27%), but only 59% of their swims were faster. Cal added a bit of time (.12%) and dropped in only 49% of their swims. Both team's numbers should improve once they get a chance to swim again at nationals.

A lot has been made of the improvement by Virginia swimmers under their new coach this year, and the numbers back that up. They were great. Virginia swimmers dropped an average of .7% from their times and 79% of their swims were faster. However, they were still out dropped by their conference rival NC State who dropped an average of .88% from their times. NC State's underwhelming performance at their conference meet was mostly down to injuries to key swimmers. The swimmers that were able to make it to the meet actually performed extremely well.

Negative is faster, positive is slower.

SCHOOL | AVERAGE CHANGE | NUMBER OF TIMES | HOW MANY DROPPED TIME | CONFERENCE
California | 0.12% | 45 | 49% | Pacific 12
Stanford | -0.27% | 37 | 59% | Pacific 12

bearz012
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Pre-Selection Psych Sheets: https://cdn.swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/di-womens-2018-pre-selection-entries.pdf

PROJECTING THE CUTLINE 2018 NCAA WOMEN'S S&D CHAMPIONSHIPS

The official NCAA invite lists won't go out until Wednesday, but anybody with the pre-cut psych sheets, released earlier today, a spreadsheet, and an army of stat guys can do the math ahead of time to determine the invitees before they're officially released barring any changes to entries.

A refresher on how that process works: The NCAA will go through, event by event, and add one swimmer to each, until a certain "line" (aka, all 30th-ranked swimmers) puts the field over the maximum 281 individual entries (322 total minus 41 places for divers). At that point, swimmers will be invited based on who is the closest to the NCAA Championship Record in their event from the next line (in this case, line 37). If you want to look at the full procedure, check section 2.4 of the NCAA Pre Championship Manual.

The cut-line fell shorter than normal this year. The top 36 swimmers in each event were invited, with the alternates beginning in line 37.

The Alternates:
Most years, at least a few alternates are taken to the meet. Among other things, this happens because of late-season injuries, or teams that are at the entry cap and then have divers qualify. Only 2 teams, Stanford with 18 swimmers entered already and Texas A&M with 16, are in danger of running into roster caps this year, with divers counting as only 1/2 of a swimmer. Alternates have further hope in that teams entered at least 2 swimmers, who should receive invites, that didn't swim at their conference championship meets due to injuries: Ky-Lee Perry of NC State, and Beryl Gastaldello of Texas A&M.

4 | Krivokapic-Zhou, Sophie | California-PC | 100 Backstroke (Sophie is ranked 38th..)

Teams With Invites:

TEAM | # OF INDIVIDUAL SWIMMERS
Stanford-PC | 18
Texas A&M-GU | 16
Louisville-KY | 12
Michigan-MI | 12
Virginia-VA | 12
Georgia-GA | 11
Southern Cali-CA | 11
California-PC | 10

List of Swimmers Invited:

SWIMMER | TEAM | HIGHEST-RANKING STROKE
Baker, Kathleen | California-PC | 200 Backstroke
Weitzeil, Abbey | California-PC | 100 Freestyle
Thomas, Noemie | California-PC | 100 Butterfly
Darcel, Sarah | California-PC | 400 IM
Neumann, Robin | California-PC | 200 Freestyle
Bilquist, Amy | California-PC | 50 Freestyle
McLaughlin, Katie | California-PC | 100 Butterfly
Murphy, Maddie | California-PC | 50 Freestyle
Blovad, Keaton | California-PC | 100 Backstroke
Harrison, Alicia | California-PC | 100 Breaststroke

SCORING THE NCAA WOMEN'S D1 PRE-SELECTION PSYCH SHEET

The pre-selection psych sheet was released this morning. The main purpose of this document is figuring out who qualified for the meet (our analysis here). However, while this isn't the final official psych sheet, the cut line will fall well below the scoring swimmers at 16th place and any event changes will be minor. Therefore scoring out this psych sheet gives a fairly valid impression of where teams stand heading into the meet. The biggest missing variable is diving which isn't on the pre-selection psych sheet.
Stanford unsurprisingly leads the way with 527.5 points. Behind them is Cal with 366.5 and Texas A&M with 338.
3 of the top 5 individuals by projected points belong to Stanford. Katie Ledecky and Simone Manuel are tied for first with a perfect 60 points and Ella Eastin is 5th with 51. Texas A&M's Sydney Pickrem is 3rd with 56 and Cal's Kathleen Baker is 4th with 53. The complete individual swimmer points are below.
The highest single event scores are Texas A&M with 63 in the 200 breast and Stanford with 57 in the 400 IM. The event by event scores for each of the top 10 ranked teams are below.

TEAM POINTS

PSYCH SWIM POINTS | PSYCH INDIVIDUAL TOP 16 | INDIVIDUAL POINTS | RELAY POINTS
Stanford | 527.5 | 28 | 359.5 | 168
California | 366.5 | 15 | 178.5 | 188

INDIVIDUAL POINTS

NAME | SCHOOL | PSYCH POINTS
Baker, Kathleen | California | 53
Weitzeil, Abbey | California | 32
Thomas, Noemie | California | 23
Darcel, Sarah | California | 22
Bilquist, Amy | California | 19
Neumann, Robin | California | 13
McLaughlin, Katie | California | 11
Murphy, Maddie | California | 5.5

TOP 10 TEAMS SINGLE EVENT SCORES

California:
800 free relay - 34
200 free relay - 40
500 free - 0
200 IM - 26
50 free - 31.5
400 medley relay - 34
400 IM - 13
100 fly - 25
200 free - 13
100 breast - 0
100 back - 22
200 medley relay - 40
1650 free - 0
200 back - 20
100 free -19
200 breast - 0
200 fly - 9
400 free relay - 40
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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EDIT => Pardon, hadn't realised bearz had already posted most of the info when I was typing out this message originally lol

Will remove most of the Swimswam contents & links to avoid unnecessary duplication here ! ">

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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

Probably in (hopefully "> ):
11. Chenoa Devine - #37 in the 500 Free (4:40.62)
12. Sophie K-Z - #38 in the 100 Back (52.56)
solobear said:

The ranking including last chance trial has been posted since yesterday.
https://www.usaswimming.org/Home/times/ncaa-information/ncaa-division-i/di-top-times-report

-- Sophie K-Z should move up from 41st to 39th and should be invited because Erika Brown and Louise Hansson wouldn't swim 100 BK.
-- Chenoa Devine should move up from 40th to 39th since Ella Eastin probably wouldn't swim 500 FR.
NCAA official invites won't be released until tomorrow.

Chenoa is currently ranked #38 (500 Free), and Sophie also @ #38 (100 Back).

According to SwimSwam: "The cut-line fell shorter than normal this year. The top 36 swimmers in each event were invited, with the alternates beginning in line 37."

Haven't had a chance to peruse the pre-cut list to make a reasonable guesstimate at who above our 2 Bears may not swim their invited events ... the official invite list is def. the one to go by anyway hehe ... but SwimSwam seems to think that Sophie has a decent shot at getting an invite as an alternate?


<snip> :p

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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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tedbear said:

Thoughts and feelings from the Pac 12 Championships.
-IMHO, Katie should drop the 500 Free and do the 100 Fly and 200 Free double on day 2. Boots used to do the 100 Fly and 100 Back double, so it's definitely doable.

Haha it seems like Katie's paying as much attention to your sagacious advice here as Meehan & Salo had to your 2016-2018 recruiting wish-list... ">

According to the unofficial psych sheet, McL will be contesting the 100 Fly, 200 Free & 200 Fly @ 2018 NCAAs (i.e. no 500 Free). Smart move there... ">
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Another significant shuffle - looks like Billy will be racing the 100 Free instead of the 200 Back on Day 4!

Sort of makes sense, as Amy's free has been on fire as of late relative to her back (don't know if that may be partly related to her stress fracture injury?).

We have quite a few versatile studs who can score in the 100 Free, but traditionally had to commit to their speciality events instead (thinking of Thleen, McL...and up to now, Amy), thus leaving the cupboard a mite bare when it comes to this race @ NCAAs.

Not having to take on multiple rounds of the 200 Back could leave Amy with fresher legs for the all-important 400 Free Relay at the end of the session too, even if the 100 Free is competed after the 200 Back.
tedbear
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I just saved Katie from 600 yards of extra swimming. Hahaha!
tedbear
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Ok, this is a little bit more of a surprise, especially because she is ranked way higher in the 200 Back than the 100 Free.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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bearz012 said:

UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

So close...may just miss the cut?
13. Maija Roses - #41 in the 100 Breast (1:00.42) ***<-- EDIT/CORRECTION, as a 52.56 would easily top Lilly King's 56.30 and even Josh Prenot's 52.57!!! haha ">

Have based the above categories on the likely NCAA invite cutoff #, which has historical hovered between 38 to 41 for the women's events, i.e. #37 should get in.

There may be additional shifts (bumps in the down direction) pending any last-chance time trials. Once the official invites have been sent, there will be several declines that would work in favour of those on the borderline - i.e. really cheering for Maija to deservedly be rewarded here before she officially becomes a "swammer"! ">
As of today (2/26/2018), she ranks 44th in the 100 breast, and 50th in the 200. Since the only swimmer that I could find who was ranked that probably wasn't going to swim the 100 at NCAA's was Bethany Galat (would swim the 400 IM), she's unfortunately not going to make it ">
Guess Maija's "retirement" is now official. Onto the next exciting chapter in Roses' adventure-filled life...(EDIT=>)...Charlie your sweet Corgi cutie!

As you can get a sense of from all the comments to her poignant, heartfelt announcement, Maija appears to be a well-loved (ex-)teammate/friend all around...

A fine shining example of a true Bear in heart & spirit!

http://instagr.am/p/BfuRiIqD2eO

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http://instagr.am/p/BfunUbzH-ui

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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Division I NCAA Women's Official Psych Sheet ReleasedLine At 37


Psych Sheet: https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/results/pdf/2018-ncaa-womens-division-i-championships-psych-sheet-ncaa-college-2018-03-14.pdf

Relays: https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/results/pdf/2018-ncaa-womens-division-i-championships-relays-ncaa-college-2018-03-14.pdf

Teams: https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/results/pdf/2018-ncaa-womens-division-i-championships-teams-ncaa-college-2018-03-14.pdf


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2018 NCAA Division I Women's Championship - 3/14/2018 to 3/17/2018 SCY
Meet Selections - Invited Swimmers by Team

  • Swimmer | Gender | Elig Year
Event | Selected Time

  • Baker, Kathleen | F | Junior
200 IM SCY | 1:52.70
100 BK SCY | 50.13
200 BK SCY | 1:48.27

  • Bilquist, Amy | F | Junior
50 FR SCY | 21.74
100 BK SCY | 51.28
100 FR SCY | 47.79

  • Blovad, Keaton | F | Sophomore
200 IM SCY | 1:55.72
100 BK SCY | 51.83
200 BK SCY | 1:53.31

  • Darcel, Sarah | F | Freshman
200 IM SCY | 1:54.50
400 IM SCY | 4:03.00
200 FL SCY | 1:55.26

  • Harrison, Alicia | F | Freshman
100 BR SCY | 59.52

  • McLaughlin, Kathryn | F | Junior
100 FL SCY | 51.17
200 FR SCY | 1:44.42
200 FL SCY | 1:54.97

  • Murphy, Maddie | F | Sophomore
50 FR SCY | 21.96
100 FL SCY | 52.03

  • Neumann, Robin | F | Freshman
200 FR SCY | 1:43.38
100 FR SCY | 48.09

  • Thomas, Noemie | F | Senior
100 FL SCY | 50.77
200 FL SCY | 1:53.77

  • Weitzeil, Abbigail | F | Sophomore
50 FR SCY | 21.41
200 FR SCY | 1:44.41
100 FR SCY | 46.63


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tedbear
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Wow, this is our smallest team in awhile. I guess Sophie didn't make it ">.
OBear073akaSMFan
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

bearz012 said:

UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

So close...may just miss the cut?
13. Maija Roses - #41 in the 100 Breast (1:00.42) ***<-- EDIT/CORRECTION, as a 52.56 would easily top Lilly King's 56.30 and even Josh Prenot's 52.57!!! haha ">

Have based the above categories on the likely NCAA invite cutoff #, which has historical hovered between 38 to 41 for the women's events, i.e. #37 should get in.

There may be additional shifts (bumps in the down direction) pending any last-chance time trials. Once the official invites have been sent, there will be several declines that would work in favour of those on the borderline - i.e. really cheering for Maija to deservedly be rewarded here before she officially becomes a "swammer"! ">
As of today (2/26/2018), she ranks 44th in the 100 breast, and 50th in the 200. Since the only swimmer that I could find who was ranked that probably wasn't going to swim the 100 at NCAA's was Bethany Galat (would swim the 400 IM), she's unfortunately not going to make it ">
Guess Maija's "retirement" is now official. Onto the next exciting chapter in Roses' adventure-filled life!

As you can get a sense of from all the comments to her poignant, heartfelt announcement, Maija appears to be a well-loved (ex-)teammate/friend all around...

A fine shining example of a true Bear in heart & spirit!

http://instagr.am/p/BfuRiIqD2eO

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http://instagr.am/p/BfunUbzH-ui

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To the seniors, thanks for the memories, Majia, Jasmine, and Valerie whose swimming career all looks to be over. You guys will be gone but not forgotten. Go Bears!!
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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tedbear said:

Wow, this is our smallest team in awhile. I guess Sophie didn't make it ">.

Sorry, forgot to include this:

Alternates:

Caitlynn Moon | Texas A&M (500 Free)
Paige Kelly | Kentucky (1650)
Taylor Worrell | South Carolina (200 fly)
Sophie Krivokapic-Zhou | California (100 back)
Constance Dean | Duke (400 IM)
Lauren Savoy | Missouri (200 Breast)
Chenoa Devine | California (500)
Megan Burns | Buffalo (100 Free)
Kahra Williams | Florida (1650)
Mackenzie Glover | NC State (200 Back)


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OFFICIAL PSYCH SHEETS FOR 2018 NCAA WOMEN'S DI CHAMPIONSHIPS RELEASED

The Stanford Cardinal continue to roll on with 18 swimmers invited already, and that doesn't include divers which have yet to compete at Zones, where they earn their qualifying. Stanford senior Kassidy Cook placed 2nd on the 1-meter and 3rd on the 3-meter at last weekend's Pac-12 Championships, and at least one of freshman Mia Paulsenand sophomore Haley Farnsworth is likely to qualify as well (with each diver counting as half of a roster spot). Cook, a U.S. Olympian who only competes in springboard, scored 27 points at last year's NCAA Championships, so it seems probable that Stanford will choose divers over at least 1 swimmer. Stanford has at least 2 invited swimmers who aren't seeded to score.


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2018 NCAA Division I Women's Swimming and Diving Championships Qualifying Swimmers Announced

Divers will be determined by performances at the Zone Diving Meets held March 5-10. Selected divers will be announced Sunday, March 11.

ESPNU will broadcast live the championship finals session Friday starting at 5 p.m. Eastern time. The finals session on Saturday will be streamed live by ESPN3 starting at 6 p.m. Eastern time. All sessions not broadcast by either ESPNU or ESPN3 will be streamed live on the NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships microsite at www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com. Tape delayed coverage of the women's championships will be broadcast on ESPNU March 25 at 4 p.m. Eastern time.


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bearz012
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2/28/18:

http://instagr.am/p/Bfvx7J4jVEP

http://instagr.am/p/Bfvn0OKllfu
http://instagr.am/p/Bfwxe-bAeN4
http://instagr.am/p/BfwBo3FnLiA
http://instagr.am/p/Bfw04N-HFFj
http://instagr.am/p/Bfw0A2tgRyr
http://instagr.am/p/Bfywww5AGeM

Happy birthday, Thleen!
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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ONLY 'POWER 5' TEAMS RECEIVE RELAY INVITES TO 2018 WOMEN'S NCAAS


Qualifying 4 individual swimmers for the NCAA Championships puts your team among the best in the country. Further, Qualifying Standards are very challenging so much so that only 26 schools have managed to hit them in even one relay.

For the first time in a long time this season, no teams outside of the "Power 5" conferences earned a relay invite. That's the first time that this has happened at least back to 2013.

Below, see a table sorted by number of relays eligible to compete, and then number of "A" cuts by those relays:

SCHOOL | # OF "A" CUTS

Wisconsin | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
USC | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
Texas A&M | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
Texas | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
Tennessee | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
Stanford | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
Michigan | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
Louisville | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5
Cal | 800 free relay | 400 medley relay | 200 medley relay | 200 free relay | 400 free relay | 5


...Ummm, is there a compelling reason for placing Bears at the bottom of the top hierarchy here??


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USA Swimming: The invited time to make the D-I women's NCAA Champs from this year to last year was faster in 12 of 13 events.




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ADD =>


How Much Faster Are the NCAA Division I Women's Invited Times?








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HBear
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Did Maddie not make it in the 100 (free)?
tedbear
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Unfortunately, Maddie's time in the 100 Free wasn't close to qualifying ">.
BearDevil
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It's just a list of invites. Almost certain Maddie has a B cut and can swim the 100 Free if she wants. Same likely applies to Noemie, Robin, and Ali on additional events. Whether they swim additional individual events is an open question.
Husmo
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tedbear said:

Unfortunately, Maddie's time in the 100 Free wasn't close to qualifying ">.
She has the B cut so she will be able to swim the 100 free too.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Madds has shown solid consistency in her swim progression with Bears, almost always getting faster from the mid-season invite to conference to NCAAs.

50 Free
2017: ... 22.49 (UGA Invite) ... 21.96 (Pac-12) ... 21.76 (NCAA)
2018: ... 22.35 (UGA Invite) ... 21.96 (Pac-12) ... ? (NCAA)

100 Fly
2017: ... 52.01 (UGA Invite) ... 51.62 (Pac-12) ... 51.15 (NCAA)
2018: ... 52.03 (UGA Invite) ... 52.24 (Pac-12) ... ? (NCAA)

100 Free
2017: ... 48.89 (UGA Invite) ... 48.72 (Pac-12) ... 48.22 (NCAA)
2018: ... 49.25 (UGA Invite) ... 49.04 (Pac-12) ... ? (NCAA)

Now Maddie's 100 Fly admittedly has been an exception to that trend for 2018 (at this point), and her 100 Free was also speedier @ last year's Pac-12s than at this season's meet.

However, in fairness to our "unranked-or-#55-recruit-depending-on-who-you-ask-lol" who had a remarkable breakout frosh season - scoring more NCAA Championship individual points than anyone in her recruiting class except for furdette Megan Byrnes (see quoted post below) - that rate of progress would be a tough act for anyone to follow...and the most telling indicator & measure of success (NCAAs) has yet to take place...

tedbear said:

Maddie Murphy vs. the Swimswam top 10 high school recruits.

Maddie 20 pts + 1st place relay
1. Meghan Small 18
2. Beata Nelson 0
3. Becca Mann 2
4. Stanzi Moesley 0
5. Claire Adams 20
6. Katie Drabot 3
7. Veronica Burchill 4
8. Allie Szekely 6
9. Grace Ogelsby 2
10. Lindsey Horejsi 23
14. Megan Byrnes 25

Hmmm, so the actual winner is distance swimmer Megan Byrnes of the Furd. I still think that Claire Adams has huge potential, and I would include Meghan Small in that group too.

Speaking of Claire Adams, she appears to have moved forward from her challenging freshman year (like Abbey, Beata, Drabot, Szekely, Lindsey, Erika Brown etc) - and in some parallels to former clubmate Amy, their frees have been looking really good relative to their backs...in fact I'm looking quite forward to watching the Carmel alumna duo potentially race each other in the 100 Free final in a fortnight's time! ">

UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Props to former Bears swim coach Greg:



Note to Meehan: But Bears will be looking very much forward to happily denying your furdette juggernaut more than a few individual & relay titles in March lol

As Cal will be valiantly contesting NCAAs with a modest but hard-hitting contingent of invitees this year (probably 10 swimmers v. LSJU's 18 or 17 depending on their divers), reckon we shouldn't take the runner-up spot (or higher hehe) for granted at all.

Esp. in light of the impressive depth (16 swimmers) which #3 ranked Texas A&M will be bringing to the table (watch out for the Aggies trying to pile on the points in the breaststrokes & IMs) - as well as a number of other potentially dangerous teams...

EDIT -> fixed link for TAMU!













UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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http://instagr.am/p/Bfy5D6hhr2_
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bearz012, cheers for posting all the birthday wishes for Thleen's 21st - here's a new one:

http://instagr.am/p/Bfywww5AGeM
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Changing the subject if I may here, interesting that our talented international frosh, Sarah Darcel, is scheduled to compete the 200m IM (Sat, #5 seed) & 400m IM (Fri, #4 seed) @ the Atlanta PSS meet this week...

Collegiate swimmers who are invited to NCAAs usually opt out of racing this long course competition, as they are "busily" resting & tapering to be at their best for the National Championships in less than a fortnight's time!

However, Sarah has already been nominated to the Canadian National Team for this year's Commie Games in the Gold Coast, AUS, with the swimming portion splashing off on 4 April.

Reckon these events @ Atlanta will provide Darcel with an opportunity to tune-up her LCM skills which have taken backstage to the little pool as of late, to obtain a measure of where she is presently whilst racing against a competitive field.

Hats off to our accomplished student-athletes from abroad, who routinely sacrifice (luckily just temporarily, for the most part) their National aspirations on the global stage in order to help their Bears teammates @ NCAAs - Nono re Budapest 2017 (Canadian trials typically fall straight after the women's NCAA Champs), Marina, possibly Robin (Copenhagen 2017), etc.

btw quite a few of our Pro Bears (mostly the Bros) are also down in McAuley Aquatic Centre for the PSS meet. As is Farida (seeded #12 after this morning's heats of the 100m Fly), who flew down to ATL with asst coach Dunleavy.

I'm sure Sarah D (not Darcel lol) will be giving Baby Bear Cassidy (200m Fly on Sat, #2 seed) a big, warm welcome, and also scouting a number of promising HS recruits who are entered in the competition...


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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

interesting that our talented international frosh, Sarah Darcel, is scheduled to compete the 200m IM (Sat, #5 seed) & 400m IM (Fri, #4 seed) @ the Atlanta PSS meet this week...

Collegiate swimmers who are invited to NCAAs usually opt out of racing this long course competition, as they are "busily" resting & tapering to be at their best for the National Championships in less than a fortnight's time!

I'm sure Sarah D (not Darcel lol) will be giving Baby Bear Cassidy (200m Fly on Sat, #2 seed) a big, warm welcome, and also scouting a number of promising HS recruits who are entered in the competition...
Well looks like I had jumped to premature conclusions here, sorry!

According to Meet Mobile, neither freshie Sarah Darcel nor 2018 commit Cassidy Bayer will be contesting the aforementioned events (although their names still appear on the Live Meet Results page here: http://www.swmeets.com/Realtime/Pro%20Series/2018/Atlanta/)

Sort of makes sense in Sarah's case, I'm selfishly relieved to say lol, since NCAAs should be her priority meet as a loyal Bear hehe.

Darcel will still have the challenging option of attempting a double taper, since she'll be swimming for her country at the Commonwealth Games in early April (or maybe a triple taper if our versatile froski's aiming also for a spot on Canada's Pan Pacs roster later this summer lol).


UPDATE #1 => (confirmed lol)

http://instagr.am/p/BfzYxsSFJht


UPDATE #2 => (lmbo)


UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

Another significant shuffle - looks like Billy will be racing the 100 Free instead of the 200 Back on Day 4!

Sort of makes sense, as Amy's free has been on fire as of late relative to her back (don't know if that may be partly related to her stress fracture injury?).

We have quite a few versatile studs who can score in the 100 Free, but traditionally had to commit to their speciality events instead (thinking of Thleen, McL...and up to now, Amy), thus leaving the cupboard a mite bare when it comes to this race @ NCAAs.

Not having to take on multiple rounds of the 200 Back could leave Amy with fresher legs for the all-important 400 Free Relay at the end of the session too, even if the 100 Free is competed after the 200 Back.

AMY BILQUIST CHOOSES 100 FREE OVER BEST-SEED 200 BACK AT NCAAS



There have been several interesting entry decisions for the 2018 women's NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships, revealed after Wednesday's posting of the official psych sheets.

Perhaps the most intriguing of those decisions, though, was that of Cal junior Amy Bilquist, who will swim the 50 free, 100 back, and 100 free at the NCAA Championships.

Her Seedings:
  • 50 free 8th, 21.74
  • 100 back 11th, 51.28
  • 100 free 15th, 47.79

The event missing there is the 200 back, which she swam at the Pac-12 Championships and finished 4th in with a 1:50.23. The reason that's significant is that because, if she had entered it, that would've been her highest seed at 7th. The event comes on the same day as the 100 free, where she's seeded 15th and would only be seeded 10th with her lifetime best time of 47.55. Her 47.79 actual seed time is from a relay leadoff at Pac-12s.

From a scoring perspective, Cal also has the #2 and #19 seeds (besides Bilquist) in the 100 free, while they have the #1 and #31 seeds in the 200 back. In short, based on the public information, choosing the 100 free is more likely to cost them a point from bumping a teammate down the rankings than does the 200 back.

Thinking like a coach, though, by focusing on the 100 free instead of the 200 back will give more focus to Bilquist's final taper, because then all of her races at NCAAs will be of the sprint, 100 yard-and-under variety.

The decision will probably only result in a few-points swing one way or the other which is unlikely to impact Cal's (or anybody's) ability to catch the heavily-favored Stanford Cardinal. However, the battle for 2nd with Texas A&M could come down to a very narrow margin. Based on psych sheet scoring, Cal has a 28.5-point advantage, but A&M has a better shot at diving points thanks to junior platform specialist Alais Kalonji, who won the SEC title in that event.

Bilquist swam the 50 free (17th), 100 back (9th), and 200 back (14th) at last year' NCAA Championship meet. She dropped time in the 50 free, added .01 seconds (seed to finals) in the 100 back, and added 1.97 seconds (seed to finals) in the 200 back.

UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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DIVERS LOOK TO QUALIFY FOR NCAA MEET


Phoebe LaMay qualified for the NCAA Championships after her performance at last year's NCAA Zone E meet.




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2018 NCAA ZONE DIVING PREVIEW & QUALIFICATION PROCEDURE


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http://instagr.am/p/Bf4vr5uBZQD

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Quick update:

From eyeballing Dive Meets' Live Results, looks like Phoebe has qualified for 2018 NCAAs in the 1m springboard (#8 in finals)! Yay!

http://instagr.am/p/Bf9YEp_BVNI

FINALS -> Briana Thai @ #14

PRELIMS -> Jackie Im #25 ... Kathleen Navas #38 ... Alexa Cacao #47


LSJU's Olympian, Kassidy Cook is also in (#4).
But looks like furdette Haley Farnsworth just missed the cut for this event, as she finished #10. Also out - tree freshman Mia Paulsen.


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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Well, in the relative lull before the storm that is NCAAs, I'd like to post a few stats here, in recognition of all those on the women's team who had achieved a personal best time @ 2018 Pac-12s!

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  • 500 FREE
Chenoa - 4:40.62 ... (prev best = 4:41.19 | 2017 Pac-12s)
Robin - 4:40.92 ... (4:43.50 | 2017 UGA Invite)

  • 200 IM
Sarah - 1:54.50 ... (1:56.69 | 2017 UGA Invite)
Keeks - 1:55.72 ... (1:57.08 | 2017 UGA Invite)
Alexa B - 2:03.71 ... (2:03.98 | 2015 Mar)

  • 50 FREE
Amy - 21.74 ... (21.94 | 2017 NCAA)
Aislinn - 22.99 ... (23.42 | 2017 UGA Invite)


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  • 400 IM
Sarah - 4:03.00 ... (4:06.58 | 2017 UGA Invite)
Chenoa - 4:12.27 ... (4:13.51 | 2017 NCAA)
Elizabeth - 4:19.58 ... (4:21.46 | 2017 UGA Invite)

  • 100 FLY
Katie - 51.17 ... (51.53 | 2015 May)

  • 200 FREE
Robin - 1:43.38 ... (1:45.33 | 2017 UGA Invite)
Chenoa - 1:47.21 ... (1:47.78 | 2016 Feb)

  • 100 BREAST
Ali - 59.52 ... (1:00.54 | 2017 UGA Invite)
Maija - 1:00.42 ... (1:00.78 | 2017 Pac-12s)
Alexa B - 1:02.02 ... (1:02.51 | 2017 Pac-12s)

  • 100 BACK
Keeks - 51.83 ... (52.39 | 2017 UGA Invite)
Sophie - 52.56 ... (53.50 | 2016 May)
Aislinn - 53.59 ... (54.25 | 2017 UGA Invite)

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  • 200 BACK
Thleen - 1:48.27 ... (1:48.33 | 2017 Pac-12s)
Keeks - 1:53.31 ... (1:54.00 | 2017 Pac-12s)
Coco - 1:54.36 ... (1:55.09 | 2017 Pac-12s)
Sophie - 1:55.87 ... (1:56.79 | 2016 May)
Aislinn - 1:56.27 ... (1:58.52 | 2017 UGA Invite)

  • 100 FREE
Robin - 48.09 ... (49.20 | 2017 UGA Invite)

  • 200 BREAST
Ali - 2:10.56 ... (2:10.92 | 2017 UGA Invite)
Maija - 2:10.86 ... (2:11.75 | 2017 Pac-12s)
Alexa B - 2:13.67 ... (2:16.58 | 2014 Dec)

  • 200 FLY
Nono - 1:53.77 ... (1:53.77 | 2016 UGA Invite)
Sarah - 1:55.26 ... (1:57.35 | 2017 UGA Invite)

===

Honourable mention goes out to some relatively near misses on their PBs:

  • 400 IM
Natalie - 4:23.85 ... (Curr PB = 4:23.47 | 2016 Winter Jrs)

  • 100 FLY
Sophie - 53.79 ... (Curr PB = 53.67 | 2015 May)

  • 100 BREAST
Natalie - 1:04.17 ... (Curr PB = 1:04.02 | 2017 Feb)

  • 100 FREE
Val - 48.67 ... (Curr PB = 48.66 | 2016 UGA Invite)

There were also several who had achieved their personal records @ the mid-season UGA Fall Invite that I haven't listed here - but particularly significant in the case of our freshies, signifying that they have improved since becoming a Bear!

===
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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Women's NCAA Division I Qualifiers


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STANFORD WOMEN, CAL MEN QUALIFY ONE DIVER EACH ON DAY 1 OF ZONE ES



Zone E results


Stanford's women got Kassidy Cook into the big show with a 4th-place finish on 1-meter. Perhaps their toughest competition for the NCAA crown is Cal, which also got a diver in. Phoebe Lamay was 8th for the Golden Bears.

The Cal men were able to qualify Connor Callahan. They'll be in a tight battle with Texas for the men's title; Texas qualified two divers tonight and NC State qualified one in other NCAA Zones.


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UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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2018 W. NCAA PREVIEWS: EASTIN VS. BAKER REMATCH IN 200 IM


After missing Ella Eastin's American record by just 4 hundredths last season, Cal's Kathleen Baker is back to give it another go, but Stanford's Eastin will be there as well to try and reclaim her title.


(more previews can be browsed @ the 2018 NCAAs topic...)
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

Sad that Val's looking to miss out in her last season as a Bear. Guess could always go as a "relay-only" (i.e. swim morning sessions to rest up a teammate with a tough schedule, or stand in as a finals relay backup if someone was to fall ill?).

However I believe Teri as a whole doesn't subscribe to bringing along a relay-only swimmer to NCAAs?
Well actually now looking good that Val will get to compete @ NCAAs once again, in her final year of eligibility - yay!!!

Take a look at this group shot taken recently, which presumably is of our 2018 NCAA squad.

Note the 11th member of the team, sandwiched between Billy & Abbey...i.e. Val!



btw the above photo is temporary, will no longer be available later tonight or tomorrow...
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:


Quick update:

From eyeballing Dive Meets' Live Results, looks like Phoebe has qualified for 2018 NCAAs in the 1m springboard (#8 in finals)! Yay!

FINALS -> Briana Thai @ #14

PRELIMS -> Jackie Im #25 ... Kathleen Navas #38 ... Alexa Cacao #47


LSJU's Olympian, Kassidy Cook is also in (#4).
But looks like furdette Haley Farnsworth just missed the cut for this event, as she finished #10. Also out - tree freshman Mia Paulsen.


Pheebs so close to being eligible to contest the 3m springboard @ NCAAs, with her 13th placing in the finals of this event today...rank = #13:

PRELIMS -> Briana Thai @ #21 ... Alexa Cacao #28 ... Jackie Im #36 ... Kathleen Navas #50


My understanding is that if you've already qualified in one or more of the diving events, then you may @ NCAAs enter the other event(s) that you hadn't made the cut for @ Zones, as long as you had finished no lower than 12th overall?

By that criteria, if my take on the diving rules above is accurate (not a given haha), then LSJU still has only 1 diver qualified, albeit currently in 2 events (Kassidy Cook). Haley Farnsworth @ #10 (need to be Top 9 in this event to get in), and Mia Paulsen @ #17.

bearz012
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2017-2018 WOMEN'S NCAA POWER RANKINGS: FINAL EDITION

#20: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (PREVIOUS RANK: N/A)
#19: UNC TAR HEELS (PREVIOUS RANK: 17TH)
#18: WISCONSIN BADGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: 19TH)
#17: NC STATE WOLFPACK (PREVIOUS RANK: 13TH)
#16: AUBURN TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: 18TH)
#15: MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (PREVIOUS RANK: 15TH)
#14: MISSOURI TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: 14TH)
#13: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (PREVIOUS RANK: 16TH)
#12: KENTUCKY WILDCATS (PREVIOUS RANK: 11TH)
#11: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (PREVIOUS RANK: 12TH)

#10: GEORGIA BULLDOGS (PREVIOUS RANK: 6TH)
Georgia is free-falling in our ranks after dropping SECs to Texas A&M by a massive 289 points. An ACL injury to backstroker Gabrielle Fa'amausili is just another cause for concern, though she's still expected to swim at NCAAs. -JA
Still waiting for everything to come together for the Bulldogs unless that doesn't happen this year. -KO

#9: INDIANA HOOSIERS (PREVIOUS RANK: 9TH)
Medley relays still rank extremely high. There aren't going to be many big scorers beyond Lilly King, but she's enough to book another top 10 slot. -JA

#8: TEXAS LONGHORNS (PREVIOUS RANK: 7TH)
Texas didn't have much reason to do much of anything at Big 12s, yet they still looked good. Last year proved they can show up well at NCAAs. -JA

Things are coming together for Coach Capitani, and freshman Evie Pfeifer was impressive at Big 12s. -KO

#7: USC TROJANS (PREVIOUS RANK: 8TH)
USC had trouble with depth at Pac 12s, but their top talent is NCAA A-final material, and that's what counts. Louise Hansson, Maggie Aroesty, and Riley Scott are real stars. -KO

#6: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (PREVIOUS RANK: 10TH)
Erika Brown is on fire, and the Vols have great relays across the board. -KO
The biggest risers in our ranks for the second time this year, Tennessee had the best SEC meet imaginable. Now, though, they've got to prove they can back up big swims at NCAAs, particularly in the relays. -JA

#5: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (PREVIOUS RANK: 5TH)
The Swimulator is a little down on Louisville, but we expect those young sprint free relays to take a big step forward come NCAAs. -JA

#4: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (PREVIOUS RANK: 4TH)
Siobhan Haughey was fast at B1Gs, and having her on the NCAA roster would cement Michigan above the teams below them. -KO

#3: TEXAS A&M AGGIES (PREVIOUS RANK: 3RD)
It's so close between the Aggies and the Golden Bears, but Cal's sprinters are just so good and it's hard to justify putting A&M ahead considering that. If Beryl Gastaldello can't swim in March, it'll be an issue. -KO
The Aggies have been dancing around the second rank all year, but with the health of star sprinter Beryl Gastaldello in question, catching Cal is just too tall an order. -JA

#2: CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (PREVIOUS RANK: 2ND)
They looked really good at Pac-12s. Their stars performed, and more importantly, people like Sarah Darcel, Keaton Blovad, and Ali Harrison really stepped up and could be crucial at NCAAs. -KO
Keep an eye on Abbey Weitzeil, who could make a big statement this year by pushing Simone Manuel or coming up relay hero as an anchor for the Bears. -JA

#1: STANFORD CARDINAL (PREVIOUS RANK: 1ST)
Call it a perfect season for Stanford, with #1 ranks in all five of our Power Rankings. With Katie Ledecky IMing her way into history, Simone Manuel back healthy and Ella Eastin leading the nation by a second and a half in the 200 fly, the Cards should be all but unstoppable. -JA

Also receiving votes: Florida State, UCLA
BearDevil
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Remains to be seen how NCAAs will shake out, but if that poll holds, Georgia will finish tenth nationally and fifth in the South. Yikes!

Swimming skews wealthy and toward strong academics. Georgia basically lost two recruiting classes when Bauerle got caught cutting corners academically.

Teri's recruiting took a hit for a few years with rise of the Furdette juggernaut, but even with that Cal's foseeable floor is fifth at worst.
UrsusArctosCalifornicus
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BearDevil said:

Georgia basically lost two recruiting classes when Bauerle got caught cutting corners academically.

Does look like UGA's recruiting slump is now (likely) catching up to them @ this year's NCAAs.

  • { EDIT #1 -> Lady Bulldogs finished #4 @ the 2017 National Championship, 1/2 a point ahead of the Longhorns. Would have ended up in the #5 slot if UT's Remedy Rule hadn't been (controversially) DQ'ed in the 200 Fly A final for remaining submerged past the 15m or 16.4 yard mark, costing the Horns a potential 16 points.
  • Now Georgia has a decent chance of proving SwimSwam's poll (placing them @ #10) wrong in a week's time, as historically Bauerle's team has shown that they over-perform @ NCAAs relative to their Fall Invite & Conference meets. Their strong diving record can't be dismissed either. However it would surprise me quite a bit if they do make Top 5 this season - compare this to their really impressive streak of not having come in lower than runner-up from 2011 to 2016, having earned their team title rings in 2013, 2014 & 2016! }

Their current freshman class is actually pretty solid in quality, led by the #1 recruit for 2017 (Harnish) with strong support from mini-Burchill & Olivia Anderson (poached from Bears, grrrr). Of note though is their international star freshman Gabi Fa'amausili being recently injured, who may not be in top form @ this NCAAs.

However, the attrition from losing their studs Smoliga & Van Landeghem (also Zilinskas, Cameron & John-Williams) will be significant...

Dawgs will also bid farewell to a fairly large group of seniors after this season - Raab, Stewart, Kingsley, Britt, as well as Peters, McKenzie & Ball.

But does look like Georgia will bounce back after having acquired one of the top 2018 classes - #1 recruit Eva Merrell, Olympic Trials 200m Back semi-finalist Callie Dickinson (both had also visited Cal), fly studs Dakota Luther (repped Team USA in the 200m Fly @ Budapest 2017) & Olivia Carter, National Teamer Maddie Homovich + 3 divers.

Will also be interesting to see UVa's results after the 1st year of the much-hyped "DeSorbo Effect"...


BearDevil said:

Teri's recruiting took a hit for a few years with rise of the Furdette juggernaut, but even with that Cal's foseeable floor is fifth at worst.

There may be some who have viewed our last 3 recruiting classes (following the Dream Team bonanza) as having been relatively disappointing...well at least by our Bears' extraordinarily high standards!

But I reckon the results speak for themselves as we have yet to drop below Top 3 at the Big Dance during our "lean" recruiting years.

Teri does have an eye for seeking out unheralded & under-appreciated talent with considerable potential & upside, who are also classroom oriented and good fits - basically "good people" all around, imo.

Go Bears!


  • { EDIT #2 -> Sorry, just couldn't resist posting this photo of such a likeable group of Bears (esp the cutie in Abbey's arms lol): }

http://instagr.am/p/Bf1ymJpHJp8
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