2018 U.S. NATIONALS PREVIEWS: DRESSEL DOMINANT IN MEN'S SPLASH-N-DASH
Depending on team size, the Americans will likely take the top-3 from most Olympic events to Tokyo, if not 4. That opens the door a little for those battling behind Dressel, but they'll still need to be on their 'A' game.
The seemingly obvious pick to slot in at #2 is Cal's
Nathan Adrian. The American Record holder prior to Dressel taking it down, he was the 2015 World Championship silver medalist, 2016 Olympic bronze medalist, and was the second U.S. entrant at last summer's World Championships. However, with an increased focus on the back half of his 100 in 2017, his 50 speed fell off and he failed to final in Budapest. With pressure brewing from some of the other's below him, the 29-year-old is far from a shoe-in for a top-2 spot, but shouldn't have a problem sliding into 3rd or 4th at worst. He's already been sub-22 this year, something he failed to do without rest last season.
A few other names to watch out for include Tennessee product
Kyle Decoursey, who posted a lifetime best 22.41 this year, Cal's
Michael Jensen who's been 22.48, and Minnesota's
Bowen Becker, who's coming off a red hot NCAA campaign.
TOP 8 PICKS: PLACE | SWIMMER | LIFETIME BEST | SEASON BEST
1 | Caeleb Dressel | 21.15 | 22.15
2 | Michael Andrew | 21.73 | 21.73
3 |
Nathan Adrian | 21.37 | 21.97
4 | Ryan Held | 22.16 | 22.48
5 | Michael Chadwick | 21.96 | 22.37
6 | Zach Apple | 22.00 | 22.83
7 | Cullen Jones | 21.40 | 22.78
8 | Justin Ress | 22.36 | 22.36
Dark horse: Indiana freestyler Blake Pieroni is known best for his ability in the 200, but has seen steady speed improvements in his 50 recently and could surprise and make the A-final. He cracked 19 seconds for the first time during the college season, and has already been within a tenth off his personal best (22.70) this year in long course.-----
2018 U.S. NATIONALS PREVIEW: YOUTH TO THREATEN SMOLIGA & BAKER IN 50BKOlivia Smoliga and
Kathleen Baker have been at the forefront of American backstroke sprinting since Rio, and the two have both been 27.4's in their lifetime 27.43 for Smoliga, the American record holder, and 27.48 for Baker, the 5th place finisher in this event at the 2017 World Championships. The recently retired Hannah Stevens narrowly defeated Baker last year in this event at Nationals, 27.63 to 27.69, but based on lifetime bests and their recent forms, and considering Stevens is out, it's going to be Smoliga and Baker primarily vying for a title.
USA Swimming constantly has young swimmers cropping up to take place of seasoned stars, and that couldn't be more true in women's backstroke, as we've seen profound teenage excellence from Missy Franklin, Elizabeth Beisel, Elizabeth Pelton, Rachel Bootsma, and so many more. As is true in the 100 and 200 back, too, the 50 back has the potential for a teenager to surprise the field. And there are quite a few kids looking very dangerous right now.
Cal teammates
Keaton Blovad and
Amy Bilquist should be in the mix here, as Blovad's been 28.42 and Bilquist 28.71 this year.
TOP 8 PICKS: PLACE | SWIMMER | LIFETIME BEST | SEASON BEST
1 | Olivia Smoliga | 27.43 | 27.43
2 | Regan Smith | 27.85 | 27.85
3 |
Kathleen Baker | 27.48 | 28.56
4 | Ali Deloof | 27.82 | 28.17
5 | Elise Haan | 28.22 | 28.22
6 | Isabelle Stadden | 28.17 | 28.17
7 |
Amy Bilquist | 28.25 | 28.71
8 | Katharine Berkoff | 28.38 | 28.38
Dark horse: Grace Ariola. The Illinois native and future Texas Longhorn edged Regan Smith last summer at World Juniors for a bronze medal in the 50 back with a time of 28.11. Ariola is a tough racer, and she has everything it takes to make a top 8 final in this event.-----
2018 U.S. NATIONALS PREVIEWS: AFTER MANUEL, SPOTS WIDE OPEN IN W 50 FR
Last year it was
Abbey Weitzeil, the 2016 Olympic Trials winner, who eked out a spot on the World
Championship team with a runner-up finish to Manuel in 24.74 after not even making the A-final of the 100 free. She would end up 15th in Budapest, and while that came
at the end of a difficult year where she was transitioning to college life, she wasn't any faster this past college season than she was in her freshman year. She's certainly in the mix, having been faster in-season (25.08) this year than last (25.25), but has yet to find her 2016 form when she broke 25 seconds 14 times.
Along with Manuel and Geer, there are two other Americans under 25 seconds this season:
Madison Kennedy and
Mallory Comerford.
The 30-year-old Kennedy has been on the cusp of breaking onto a major international team for many years, but has always fallen just short. She was 5th at the 2012 Olympic Trials, 3rd in 2016, and was also two one-hundredths shy of making the Pan Pacs four years ago. Already faster this year (24.88) than she was at World Trials last year (24.95), she'll be a major factor once again.
Two other names to keep an eye on:
Erika Brown and
Katie McLaughlin.
McLaughlin, traditionally a 100/200 butterflier who dabbled in the same distances in freestyle, has taken up the 50 much more this year, and
has stated she really enjoys the sprints. It's worked so far, having been her fastest ever at 25.19, and like Brown, sub-25 seems to be only a matter of time.
TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | SWIMMER | LIFETIME BEST | SEASON BEST
1 | Simone Manuel | 23.97 | 24.59
2 | Margo Geer | 24.72 | 24.72
3 |
Abbey Weitzeil | 24.28 | 25.08
4 | Mallory Comerford | 24.88 | 24.94
5 | Olivia Smoliga | 24.70 | 25.14
6 | Lia Neal | 24.77 | 25.04
7 | Erika Brown | 25.21 | 25.21
8 | Gretchen Walsh | 25.46 | 25.46
Dark horse: 17-year-old Anya Goeders swam a startling 24.85 to win the 2016 Junior Pan Pac title, and wasn't far off with a 25.14 showing in 2017. She's only the 66th fastest American this year at 26.43, but certainly has the potential to battle for a top finish with a return to form.-----
2018 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: DAHLIA CAN CHALLENGE OWN 50 FLY AR
In the absence of Vollmer,
from whom the latest word is that she "most likely" won't swim Nationals while working her way back from the birth of her second child, there's not a proven challenger for Worrell in this race and the spot on the 2019 World Championship team.
Though they're both more of 100/200 butterfliers,
Sarah Gibson and
Katie McLaughlin are both ranked in America's top 10 this year, with Gibson at 26.70 and McLaughlin at 26.75. McLaughlin, in particular, has been on fire this spring and her sprints have never looked better. If anyone is going to sneak up to challenge for a top three or four spot, it's probably her or
Mallory Comerford.
TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | SWIMMER | LIFETIME BEST | SEASON BEST
1 | Kelsi Dahlia | 25.48 | 25.74
2 | Hellen Moffitt | 26.19 | 26.39
3 | Erika Brown | 26.64 | 26.64
4 | Amanda Kendall | 26.07 | 26.07
5 |
Katie McLaughlin | 26.75 | 26.75
6 | Kendyl Stewart | 25.93 | 26.45
7 | Alyssa Marsh | 26.46 | 26.99
8 | Ann Ochitwa | 26.49 | 26.64
Dark Horse: Maddie Murphy. The rising Cal junior has been 26.60, and she's seen progression in her first two seasons with the Golden Bears.-----
2018 U.S. NATIONALS PREVIEW: WORLD CHAMPIONS LEAD PACK IN MEN'S 200 IM
Four of the five fastest times this season after Kalisz and Lochte belong to a cluster of former NCAA stars who also bring some solid international experience. The fastest lifetime and season bests in the bunch belong to
Josh Prenot, who just missed making Worlds last summer in this event.
Rising Cal senior
Andrew Seliskar had a strong meet earlier this month at the Santa Clara PSS. While he's made the A-final at NCAAs in the yards version of this event each of the past three years, his lifetime time best in long course is still a 1:59.84 from way back in 2013, before his junior year of high school. Still, he looks to be in great form this season, and is a great bet to make one of the various international teams that will be selected on the basis of this meet.
Among current or recently-graduated high schoolers,
Carson Foster recorded a personal best at the Austin PSS and
sees this event as his best one,
Kieran Smith looks to be a future IM star, and you've got to wonder what
Reece Whitley could pop if he decided to swim this. He made huge progress during his senior high school season in 'not breaststroke.'
TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | SWIMMER | LIFETIME BEST | SEASON BEST
1 | Chase Kalisz | 1:55.56 | 1:57.50
2 | Ryan Lochte | 1:54.00 | 1:58.90
3 |
Josh Prenot | 1:57.14 | 1:59.47
4 | Abrahm Devine | 1:56.79 | N/A
5 | Gunnar Bentz | 1:58.31 | 2:00.69
6 |
Andrew Seliskar | 1:59.84 | 2:01.89
7 | Will Licon | 1:58.43 | 2:00.11
8 | Jay Litherland | 1:58.46 | 2:00.56
Dark Horse Dresselhorse: What's that? You've made it this far and you're surprised/annoyed we haven't even mentioned a certain swimmer who
obliterated the American Record in the yards version of this event at a meet for which he wasn't even fully tapered? Snap out of it. The 200 IM is shortly before the 50 free. And even if he does decide to swim it, he's not going to set the world record. That'd be as crazy, as, say, someone swimming a
17.6 50 free,
50.0 100 breast, and a
42.8 100 fly.
Can't happen...right?
-----
2018 U.S. NATIONALS PREVIEW: RESS LEADS 50 BACK FIELD OF WILDCARDS
While the spotlight might be focused on swimmers like Ress and Andrew over the 50 meter distance, it's impossible to count out the backstroke greats in Grevers (3rd at 2017 U.S. Nationals) and Murphy (2nd at 2017 U.S. Nationals) who have both proved time and time again that they show up when and where it matters most. Grevers is the 2012 Olympic Champion in the 100 back and Murphy is the 2016 Olympic Champ (and WR holder) in the same event.
TOP 8 PICKS:
PLACE | SWIMMER | LIFETIME BEST | SEASON BEST
1 | Justin Ress | 24.41 | 24.47
2 | Michael Andrew | 24.63 | 24.70
3 | Matt Grevers | 24.54 | 24.81
4 |
Ryan Murphy | 24.64 | 25.45
5 | Ryan Held | 24.95 | 25.23
6 |
Jacob Pebley | 25.30 | 25.46
7 | John Shebat | 24.88 | N/A
8 |
Daniel Carr | 25.27 | 25.73