Texas sweep of the 2 IM. Call me a downer, but I'm getting antsy already about the Bears' chance to repeat as champions in the spring. Depth from the Horns already seems to be far better than it was last year, not to mention the top times/swims.

Texas has come to play.

Horns' A team goes 3:01.5 to win the 400 medley relay, their B team 3:03.
Cal's A team 3:03.89 (taking second behind Texas in the final heat by over 2 seconds). Man....

HBear said:

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Texas has come to play.

Horns' A team goes 3:01.5 to win the 400 medley relay, their B team 3:03.
Cal's A team 3:03.89 (taking second behind Texas in the final heat by over 2 seconds). Man....

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Think transfers Maxime and Jiang have added to their depth immensely. Hoping Hugo swim back to his freshmen year!

Hoffer Captures 50 Free

Cal Junior Swims Nation's Fastest 50 Free Time at Minnesota Invite

• Day 2 Results (PDF)

MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. - California junior Ryan Hoffer highlighted the Bears' second day at the Minnesota Invitational by winning the 50 free at Jean K. Freeman Aquatic Center on Thursday.

Hoffer, the defending 50 free national champion, became the first swimmer to break the 19-second mark this season by touching in 18.98. It was the nation's fastest time this fall and the fifth-fastest in program history. Hoffer submitted the top prelim time (19.13) of the morning before winning the evening final.

Pawel Sendyk took third in the 50 free finals, touching in 19.33 seconds.

In the 200 IM, Reece Whitley took sixth with a time of 1:43.65 while Daniel Carr placed eighth (1:44.59). Bryce Mefford won the 200 IM "B" final in 1:44.71.

Trenton Julian was Cal's top performer in the 500 free, taking seventh in 4:15.56. He was the lone Bear to qualify for the "A" final; Sean Grieshop took 11th overall with a 4:16.91 time.

Cal closed the evening with a third-place finish in the 400 medley relay. Carr, Whitley, Hoffer and Sendyk combined to touch in 3:03.89, which met the NCAA "A" standard. The Bears placed behind a pair of Texas groups (3:01.51, 3:03.55).

Through 14 total events in Minneapolis, Cal remains in second place with 300 points and trails only Texas (481 points). Full relay results can be found here.

Was wondering why talented froski diver Nick Hart wasn't on the entries list for the 2019 Minn Invite...anyway, wish Nick the best in his endeavours!

https://instagr.am/p/B5txEZklhvw

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CAL FRESHMAN NICHOLAS HART RETIRES FROM DIVING

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Maybe I missed their names but I did not see Zheng Wen Quah or Hugo Gonzalez swim in the medley relays or the medley event. I think that Cal could have finished higher if they had these guys. I have been reviewing the the results each day but I have not been reading through all of the posts. The women appear strong but the men are lagging Texas substantially so far. GO BEARS!

Zheng Quah Wen is at the SEA Games, Gonzalez at the SC European Champs, as mentioned earlier in the thread.

bearz012 said:

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Zheng Quah Wen is at the SEA Games, Gonzalez at the SC European Champs, as mentioned earlier in the thread.

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Is it confirmed that Gonzalez is at this meet? He's not on the psych sheets.

McHugh puts up 50.7 for the country's fastest time in the 100 breast prelims this morning. Reece posted a 52-low in his heat.

Man, Texas filling all of their holes from last year and then some if you look at the 2 free final for tonight or 1 breast (Scheinfeld, Corbeau)...

Texas' transfers (Rooney from Florida, Jiang from UNC, Staka from Alabama) and top frosh recruits ( Foster and Corbeau) have appeared to put the Horns in the driver seat for 2020 NCAAs. The Texas sophomore class (Kibler, Krueger, Zettle, Willenbring,Vines,Scheinfeld) is also showing up big time.

Zheng Quah has two Olympic A cuts from the SEA games and having both him and hopefully Hugo will help narrow the gap but this Texas squad has depth in all events plus a very stong diving squad. Their depth in the 200 free, 200 IM, and the 100 back prelim races so far in Minn. is ridiculous. Horns also finished top two in the 100 fly with Rooney in with the 4th best time. Yikes.

swan said:

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Texas' transfers (Rooney from Florida, Jiang from UNC, Staka from Alabama) a

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I know it's all spilled milk now but Rooney a local swimmer spurned Cal twice. Any idea why he chose the other schools?

Well, if you want to have fun, look up the Texas men's roster 2019-2020 (the one that shows their college majors) and you will see how they apparently can accept anyone. Physical Culture, History, etc and Rooney (a Senior) is majoring in English!

Two Wins On Friday In Minnesota

Trenton Julian, 200 Free Relay Quartet Earn Victories at Minnesota Invitational

Day 3 Results (PDF)

200 Back results:

5. Daniel Carr: 1:41.93
8. Bryce Mefford: 1:42.63 - Swim-off
12. Andy Xianyang Song: 1:44.08
17. Sebastian Somerset: 1:45.73
20. Kyle Millis: 1:46.24
24. Ethan Young: 1:47.58
25. William Pelton: 1:47.67
36. Michael Petrides: 1:49.64

Horns with 5 in the A final, possibly 6 pending Mefford and Horns' frosh Larson's swimoff. Carr and Harvard's frosh Grant the other representatives.

OBear073akaSMFan said:

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swan said:

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Texas' transfers (Rooney from Florida, Jiang from UNC, Staka from Alabama) a

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I know it's all spilled milk now but Rooney a local swimmer spurned Cal twice. Any idea why he chose the other schools?

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Staka is also local coming from Aptos, but I do not believe he was recruited by Cal coming out of high school.

I believe there was some minor contact between Cal and Rooney after he announced he was leaving Florida, but he abruptly chose Texas. Hard to argue with the choice as he has been swimming lights out since the change.

I do not believe Cal's very competitive academic environment is for everybody.

swan said:

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I believe there was some minor contact between Cal and Rooney after he announced he was leaving Florida, but he abruptly chose Texas. Hard to argue with the choice as he has been swimming lights out since the change.

I do not believe Cal's very competitive academic environment is for everybody.

Thanks. I would never criticize what school an athlete pick but merely expressing my disappointment with his choice. Us getting Rooney would have had a double impact..decrease Texas strength and then improve our pt totals. However if we went after Rooney would we have gotten Hugo? I'm guessing probably not though if Hugo swim back to his Frosh year he will help counter some of Rooney's individual scoring pts but Rooney is a 4 relay swimmer which is big for texas.

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Finishing up results from this morning...

100 Free:
2. Ryan Hoffer: 42.25
6. Michael Jensen: 43.11
7. Pawel Sendyk: 43.18
25. Shane Forker: 44.56
37. Marcos Rico Peng: 45.61
38. Galen Penvenne: 45.72

200 Breast:
2. Reece Whitley: 1:52.79
12. Jacques Laeuffer: 1:57.30
15. Karl Arvidsson: 1:58.17
22. Jason Louser: 2:00.21
38. Preston Niayesh: 2:04.53

200 Fly:
3. Trenton Julian: 1:41.77
16. Jack Xie: 1:46.70
18. Colby Mefford: 1:47.63

Hoping it's a matter of hard training or something similar, but to my casual spectator eyes, Grieshop hasn't looked like he's having a great season so far. 4:16.91 in the 500 this meet (11th), 3:44.73 in the 400 IM (5th), 14:57.26 in the mile tonight (6th).

I guess for comparison, he was 4:16.38 last year at the Georgia Invite (5th) and 3:42.80 (2nd). Hope I get proven very wrong in a few months. (On a brighter note, Julian certainly having a solid meet so far, especially with that 400 IM!)

Katz sets a new pool record with a 1:37 to win the 200 back (handily). Led a big, deep squad of Horns in that final.

Hoffer takes third in men's A-final of the 100 free in 42.42.

Texas' Krueger-Kibler take 1-2 in the event and post the top two fastest times in the country.

Go Reece -- 1:51.02 to win the 200 BR and take the top time in the country.

200 fly: 1:39.35 from Texas' Pomajevich, tying his own top time in the country.
1:41.14 from Julian, taking second in the event.

2:46.57 from Horns to win the 400 FR. Top time by over three seconds.
2:50.59 from the Bears to take second.

Brutal showing from Texas this week.... really setting up a scary March showdown at the big dance. Texas wins the invite by over 300 points (if I heard correctly), Michigan takes second, and Cal men take third.

Runner-Up Finish At Minnesota Invitational

Reece Whitley Swims Fastest 200 Breast Time Of The Season

• Day 4 Results (PDF)

MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. - Reece Whitley swam the nation's fastest 200 breast time of the season (1:52.02) to highlight California's final day at the Minnesota Invitational on Saturday at Jean K. Freeman Aquatic Center.

The Bears finished second overall in the four-day invitational with 759.5 points, placing behind champion Texas (1182 points). Click here for full results from Saturday's finals events. Whitley cut 1.77 seconds off his prelim time en route to the 200 breast victory in Saturday evening's final. His 1:51.02 finals performance was just 0.42 off his personal best.

Other top individual performances in Saturday's finals included a runner-up finish by Trenton Julian in the 200 fly (1:41.14) and third-place finishes by Daniel Carr in the 200 back (1:40.55) and Ryan Hoffer in the 100 free (42.42).

Pawel Sendyk earned a fourth-place finish in the 100 free (42.56) while Michael Jensen took sixth in the event (42.98) for 15 and 13 points, respectively. In addition to Carr taking third in the 200 back, Bryce Mefford touched in 1:43.76 for an eighth-place finish.

Cal closed out the invitational with a runner-up finish in the 400 free relay. Jensen, Sendyk, Carr and Hoffer finished in 2:50.59, with Hoffer recording the fastest split (42.07) in the freestyle.

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UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

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A notable absence is that of Hugo Gonzalez, as he's not listed on the entries list for the 2019 Minnesota Invite and Euro SC Champs...

Meanwhile, out east in the Philippines, Quah tearing up a couple of SEA Games + National records on Day 1, qualifying for Tokyo in the process.

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Schroeder71 said:

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Maybe I missed their names but I did not see Zheng Wen Quah or Hugo Gonzalez swim in the medley relays or the medley event. I think that Cal could have finished higher if they had these guys.

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HUGO GONZALEZ WAS ABSENT FROM MINNESOTA INVITE TO PREP FOR SWIM CUP AMSTERDAM

While Cal men's swimming participated in the Minnesota Invite last weekend, Hugo Gonzalez the third-fastest short course 400 IMer in history - stayed home to prepare for the Swim Cup Amsterdam, which takes place this weekend.

Gonzalez, a native of Spain, will represent his national team at the three-day meet. This meet, held in long course, acts as the first step of Spain's two-part Olympic qualifying criteria. Athletes who earn an at least an Olympic "B" standard in prelims and at least an Olympic "A" standard in finals will be pre-selected to Spain's Olympic team. Given that the 2nd leg of the Olympic qualifying system runs from April 1st-5th, shortly after the NCAA Championship meet, early qualification is crucial for Gonzalez.

"Coach Durden kept him off Cal's travel roster so he could continue his preparations for that meet," Cal told SwimSwam. Fellow international teammate Zheng Quah, of Singapore, was also absent in Minnesota as he competed at the SEA Games.

CAL BEAR QUAH ZHENG WEN NAMED SEA GAMES MOST VALUABLE PLAYER ACROSS ALL SPORTS

In recognition of his impressive feats in the water over the course of the just-concluded Southeast Asian (SEA) Games, Singaporean swimming powerhouse Quah Zheng Wen was honored with the Most Valuable Player (MVP) trophy.

The 23-year-old who competes for the Cal Bears in the NCAA, took home the biggest haul of hardware across all athletes and sports over the course of the entire Games, securing 6 golds and 2 silvers. Along the way, Zheng Wen earned Olympic-qualifying times (FINA 'A' cuts) in both the 100m fly and 100m backstroke events.

nvm - dupe post on Quah, will edit...was beaten to it by 1 min, HBear really on top of his/her game lol

UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

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Looks like Robin will be jetting back to the Netherlands to compete in the Swim Cup Amsterdam this weekend.

Several other Bears are slated to race this meet:

Hugo - 200m IM (#1), 200m Back (#2), 100m Back (#4), 400m IM (#9)

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SPANISH CAL BEAR HUGO GONZALEZ QUALIFIES FOR 2020 OLYMPIC GAMES IN 200 IM

BearDevil said:

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(29 Oct 2016)

Julian's parents both were All-Americans at 'SC and dad now on staff.


******

(24 Feb 2019)

At one point, saw Cal legend Par Arvidsson walk up to the top of the bleachers. Thought he wanted to hang out with Alumni, but he was just a proud, anxious swim dad, who wanted a better perspective to watch his son Karl race. Karl swam pretty well. Even a stoic Swede briefly flashed a sheepish smile when his accolades were noted (world record holder, Olympic Champion), but he was all about Karl.

Didn't see Matt Biondi, but sure he was there. Nate's really coming on and looked pretty good.

Was also funny to see Julian's parents (both Trojan swim royalty) decked out in blue and gold going nuts during Trenton's gutty races.

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Cal's Trenton Julian Using Family Legacy as Challenge



It can be tough living in the shadow of a parent. How about both parents? Trenton Julian grew up in a swimming household. His father Jeff Julian was a member of the national team and his mother Kristine Quance is an Olympic gold medalist.

That is not one, but two tough paths to follow.

But Cal junior Trenton Julian has embraced it and is making a name for himself in the water with the fastest time in the NCAA in the 400-yard individual medley.

2019-2020 NCAA MEN'S SWIMMING & DIVING POWER RANKINGS: DECEMBER EDITION

#5: INDIANA HOOSIERS (-1)
IU looks solid. They don't quite have enough all-stars to overcome a smaller base of national-level scorers like they have the past few seasons. One to watch: freshman Will Gallant has already dropped 27 seconds in his mile and six in his 500 free, and projects as a rookie NCAA scorer. -JA

Despite the losses from last year's roster, the Hoosiers' depth remains among the best in the NCAA. It looks likely IU will be represented in every event at NCAAs, with potential scorers in every event, except maybe the 400 IM. -SP

They took a bit hit in terms of graduating seniors, but returners like Bruno Blaskovic have looked solid, freshman Brendan Burns should help blunt the relay losses, and quite frankly, there's really no other team that's clearly knocking on the door of a top five finish. -RG
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#4: NC STATE WOLFPACK (-1)
The Wolfpack had some mixed results at the invite they hosted. Coleman Stewart and Nyls Korstanje did about what you expected, but there weren't any other huge drops. Still, there were plenty of indications, including freshman Hunter Tapp's and senior Noah Hensley's free relay splits, that this team should still impress come spring.-RG

I'm not sure NC State has really put a team-wide focus on a short course meet yet, and their relay ranks reflect that. I expect the Wolfpack to blow away their current 115 projected relay points. The most exciting swimmer right now is Nyls Korstanje, who has been very close to lifetime-bests already this year. -JA

We haven't really seen a complete NC State team yet this season. I have no worries about their ability to get it done in relays when the time comes. -SP
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#3: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (+2)
Michigan has two relays ranked 3rd nationally: the 800 free and the 200 medley. Those are about as polar opposite as you can get, and the relays are made up by 8 different swimmers. That's emblematic of how impressive Michigan has been this year I don't think we've seen their entire roster swim this well since they won NCAAs in 2013. -JA

Michigan has been incredibly good this season. Personally, I'm blown away by just how good this breaststroke squad is: 3 guys under 1:53.5 in the 200, as well as 51.6, 51.9, and 52.5 100 breaststrokers already this season. Their breast group could be better than Indiana's this year, and right now it looks like Michigan may score the most points of any team in the breast events. -SP

Their huge breaststroke and IM groups are very impressive once again. Gus Borges is still improving incrementally, though a big second semester from freshman sprinter Cam Peel would be huge for their relays. Remember how disappointing their relays were last year? They're top 10 in all five right now, including #3 in the 800 and the 200 medley. -KO

The distance and breaststroke groups should roll up big points, and the free relays are already looking better than they did last year. -RG
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#2: CAL GOLDEN BEARS (-1)
Cal was largely so-so at Minnesota and missing Hugo Gonzalez, but I expect we'll see much better performances at Pac-12s, and their best swims at NCAAs. -SP

It's just hard to project what Hugo Gonzalez will ultimately do, without seeing him swim a whole lot this fall/winter. Another factor: the Cal freshmen just didn't have any breakout swims at Minnesota. I'm still high on Jason Louser and Colby Mefford, but it'll take a whale of a taper for those guys to be NCAA difference-makers this season. Cal is definitely taking the patient route, and they're pretty reliable to show up when the post-season hits, but unless they can get a newcomer to score big somewhere, it looks like Texas's additions have more than leveled the playing field. -JA

Hugo Gonzalez was out snagging Olympic qualification in Amsterdam mid-season, and overall it was evident that the Bears didn't come down too much for the Minnesota Invite. Texas still blew them out of the water in Minneapolis, though. -KO

Let's be clear: while Texas looks incredibly strong, Cal is by no means out of this. There's still at least nine swimmers on this team who have the potential to make 2 or 3 A-finals each. This will come down to whichever team is closest to firing on all cylinders for the four days at NCAAs. Are you ready for March yet? I am. -RG

#1: TEXAS LONGHORNS (+1)
The Longhorns showed up at the Minnesota Invite with one of the most impressive mid-season invites we've ever seen. Right now, there's at least 18 Longhorns safely qualified for NCAAs, with another five or six hovering right around last year's invite times. Underclassmen like Braden Vines, Matt Willenbring, and Caspar Corbeau took some big steps forward, as did transfer Alvin Jiang. Still, despite the legendary "Texas Taper," one of the things that hobbled the Longhorns last year was that some of the guys who had big swims at mid-season couldn't match those times in March. -RG

There's no denying Texas has been the highest performing team through the Fall semester. Honestly, it's not even close. Everything is going the Longhorns' way right now. They're looking like title contenders in all 5 relays, Sam Pomajevich looks to be fully out of his sophomore slump, Daniel Krueger has been phenomenal, and we can't forget the diving squad. -SP

Texas is scary fast right now, and they have an army of people lined up for a vast array of relay possibilities. Their roster is of course limited for NCAAs, so the coaches have some scoring possibility puzzles they'll need to solve come March. -KO

It takes a lot for me to change my #1. Texas has done a lot. They have a 314-point lead over Cal in the Swimulator that doesn't even factor in Texas's huge diving advantage. The only worry is that Texas really hasn't swum all that well at NCAAs since 2017. But the roster-wide talent is too much to ignore at this point. Under-discussed newcomer to watch: freshman Peter Larson, who dropped from 1:35.3 to 1:33.6 in the 200 free while swimming the invite back in his home state of Minnesota. -JA

HBear said:

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2019-2020 NCAA MEN'S SWIMMING & DIVING POWER RANKINGS: DECEMBER EDITION

#5: INDIANA HOOSIERS (-1)
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#4: NC STATE WOLFPACK (-1)
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#3: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (+2)
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#2: CAL GOLDEN BEARS (-1)
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#1: TEXAS LONGHORNS (+1)

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SWIMULATOR MID-SEASON TITLE PREDICTIONS

The Swimulator aggregates all the top in-season times and then predicts an invite-style meet based off of the top results in each event. It respects team and swimmer event limits and tries to reasonably select events for swimmers entered in multiple. It doesn't include diving results.

DI MEN | 2020 MID-SEASON

Texas | 695
California | 381.5
Michigan | 304
Texas A&M | 282.5
Arizona | 203
NC State | 189
Indiana | 180.5
Missouri | 172.5
Arizona St | 139
Florida St | 105
Alabama | 77
Tennessee | 62.5
Stanford | 47
Florida | 16

Historically, Cal and Texas have finished 1-2 in nine out of the past ten seasons (Michigan won in 2013) and this season is no exception. Texas has a commanding lead thus far in the season due to their dominant showing at the Minnesota invite. Last season, Texas was narrowly defeated by Cal to deny them a historic 5-peat. Mid-season rankings from last year (more on that in a minute) showed Cal with a narrow edge as well. Texas' lead this season is a lot to overcome - especially after taking their strong diving team into account.


To use these results to predict the end-of-season results, we'd like to try and take into account teams that tend to taper more heavily during the mid-season invites from those that taper less. To do so, we'll take a look at where the Swimulator predicted NCAA teams after last year's mid-season taper meets and how those compared to how they finished at the end of the season.

To account for some regression to the mean in terms of tapering, I halved the adjustment points when calculating the final point predictions. For teams that have gotten a lot faster or slower, this adjustment may no longer be that accurate (I think that Stanford's men's team will likely end up with more than 0 points).

DI MEN | 2020 MID-SEASON | 2019 MID-SEASON | 2019 FINAL | ADJUSTMENT | PREDICTION

Texas | 695 | 433 | 376 | -57 | 666.5
California | 381.5 | 509.5 | 524 | 14.5 | 388.75
Michigan | 304 | 237 | 295 | 58 | 333
Texas A&M | 282.5 | 141 | 112 | -29 | 268
Arizona | 203 | 137 | 99 | -38 | 184
NC State | 189 | 262 | 284.5 | 22.5 | 200.25
Indiana | 180.5 | 199 | 295 | 96 | 228.5
Missouri | 172.5 | 183 | 163 | -20 | 162.5
Arizona St | 139 | 70 | 44.5 | -25.5 | 126.25
Florida St | 105 | 67 | 56 | -11 | 99.5
Florida | 16 | 130.5 | 222 | 91.5 | 61.75
Alabama | 77 | 134 | 149 | 15 | 84.5
Tennessee | 62.5 | 163.5 | 122 | -41.5 | 41.75
Stanford | 47 | 201 | 82.5 | -118.5 | 0

The top men's teams tended to have small adjustment factors on the whole meaning that their mid-season tapers were pretty consistent with the end-of-year tapers.

The top team rankings on the swimulator use a similar adjustment to the one described above. The Swimulator's rankings have Texas with a strong 76% title chance followed by Cal with 20% on the men's side.

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Pac-12 announces men's swimmer and diver of the month



MEN'S SWIMMER OF THE MONTH: Ryan Hoffer, Jr., California (Scottsdale, Ariz.)

Hoffer had a standout performance at the four-day Minnesota Invitational from Dec. 4-7 as he contributed to three event victories for California. The junior swam the nation's fastest 50-yard freestyle time so far this season (18.98), becoming the only swimmer to break the 19-second mark this year. Hoffer was a part of two relay victories, helping the Golden Bears post times of 1:23.12 in the 200-yard medley relay and 1:16.01 in the 200 free relay, which is also the fastest time in the nation so far this season. Hoffer was also named Pac-12 Swimmer of the Week in February 2018.

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https://instagr.am/p/B7rNkksgw3E

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DAVE DURDEN SPEAKS ON REST OF CAL SEASON: "THIS IS ALWAYS A FUN TIME OF YEAR"



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CAL'S WEITZEL BREAKS POOL RECORD WITH 47.7 100 FREE VS. ARIZONA

Full Results

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CAL'S WHITLEY SNAPS CORDES POOL RECORD, GONZALEZ BREAKS CHITWOOD RECORD VS. ASU

Full Results (men)

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2019-2020 NCAA MEN'S SWIMMING & DIVING POWER RANKINGS: FEBRUARY EDITION[url=https://swimswam.com/2019-2020-ncaa-mens-swimming-diving-power-rankings-february-edition/][/url]

#5: NC STATE WOLFPACK (-1)
Only four projected individual scorers for the Wolfpack. That feels low. Let's see how these freshmen perform at ACCs. My bet is that 2-3 rookies etch their names on the NCAA scoring projections after the conference meets are wrapped. -JA

NC State brought in a loaded freshmen class. It usually takes a year before we see Wolfpack men really develop, but they've typically been working more with "diamond in the rough" types than blue-chippers. All that to say, the Wolfpack class of 2023 is going to make an impact, and ACCs should let us know if that impact will come this year, or later on down the road. -RG

#4: INDIANA HOOSIERS (+1)
IU is relying on a lot of key freshmen, but so far, they look pretty good. Brendan Burns and Will Gallant are projected to score in the Swimulator, and sophomores Jack Franzmann and Mikey Calvillo should play key roles. -JA

The Hoosiers have an interesting little backstroke group, including Gabriel Fantoni, Mohamed Samy, and Jacob Steele, that could pull in a lot more points than they're currently projected to. RG

#3: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (-)
Michigan's sprint group is on the rise, which bolsters their campaign for a top 3 finish in March. -KO

Several consecutive years of great recruiting is paying off for Michigan, which has dominant crews in the mid-distance free and IMs. One oddly-specific prediction: after a huge Big Ten showing, Michigan is going to open up a conversation among fans (and maybe rankers) as to whether they should leap Cal in our final pre-NCAA power ranks. -JA

Sophomore Patrick Callan swam the three fastest 200 freestyle races of his life at the Minnesota Invite, after not improving his time in that race as a freshman. He could be in the running for the Big Ten title in that event. Part of me is expecting big things from Callan and the rest of the Wolverines at Big Tens, but part of me is also wondering if they'll change their postseason approach this after faltering at NCAAs last year.

#2: CAL GOLDEN BEARS (-)

Call me the contrarian. A nearly-300-point margin in the Swimulator seems almost insurmountable. I'm buying Cal outperforming projections for a few reasons: (1) Hugo Gonzalez is projected at 9 points, and I'd expect at least triple that. (2) Cal has lots of returning scorers currently projected well out of scoring range, like Sean Grieshop (49 last year, projected 4 this year), Zheng Quah (29 last year, projected 11 this year) and Bryce Mefford (16 last year, projected 7.5 this year). (3) Cal has consistently showed up very well at NCAAs the past couple of years. -JA

How close will Hugo Gonzalez come at Pac-12s to repeating his SEC times from 2018? In case you've forgotten, he ranks #3 all-time with his 3:35.76, and Cal sure could use that level of performance again if they're going to top Texas. -RG

#1: TEXAS LONGHORNS (-)
Not a single swimmer that Texas initially recruited from the high school class of 2016 has scored a NCAA point, or swum on a NCAA relay. The closest thus far has been Josh Artmann, whose 1:41.00 in the 200 back from the Minnesota Invite is just a couple-tenths off of last year's NCAA scoring time. Even if that qualifies for NCAAs, it may not be enough to make the Longhorns' loaded roster, so it'll be interesting to see if Artmann can go 1:40-low at Big 12s. The broader point here is that while the Longhorns' top ten swimmers may not as many points as Cal's top ten, swimmers #11-16 could make the difference, if the Longhorns take the right 16 guys out of the 22-24 who are likely to qualify for NCAAs. -RG

Texas has unbelievable high-end depth they've got chances to put 3+ swimmers into multiple NCAA A finals. What that's going to take, though, is for their taper to hit square-on something that hasn't really happened since 2017. The reasons for optimism are plenty, though: the nation's best 100/200 free crew is going to wreak havoc on the relays. It's a shame for Texas that they can't enter B relays, because theirs would definitely score big. -JA

Charlie Scheinfeld's performance against Arizona, swimming 1:00.63/2:09.15 in the breaststrokes, is reason for pause here. I know, I know Texas is tired, they don't care about dual meets, but 1:00.6/2:09.1 for a swimmer of his caliber seems like more than just 'tired' to me. -BK