sycasey said:Cal88 said:sycasey said:Cal88 said:sycasey said:Cal88 said:sycasey said:Cal88 said:
We might at the very least have a good starting point for a serious negotiation process. Good news!
This "starting point" is at least a year old. It's nothing new.A year-old article for politicians with the memory of a decorative goldfish. https://t.co/eVIL6sDK0p pic.twitter.com/3xDVEVg6Sq
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 21, 2026
The problem is that Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange for giving up land (so they don't get invaded again) and Putin doesn't.
The Russians want regime change in Ukraine, borders are less important than having a neutral Ukraine next door, along the Austrian or Finnish post-war model.
Zelenski's statement is an admission of Ukraine/NATO being unable to reconquer annexed territories and increasing difficulties in holding the line, with the last Donbas line of Kramatorsk now being the next big frontline theater.
The question is, will the Uniparty and MIC scuttle this attempt at peace and extend the war for another year or two? There are some realists in DC and in the Pentagon who might be pushing for a deal to cut their losses in an unwinnable war.
Russia shouldn't get to decide who governs Ukraine either. That just sets them up as a de facto vassal state. I doubt that's going to fly. If Russia couldn't take Kiev they don't get that.
Both sides have had difficulty in holding the line, so freezing at the current line makes some sense. The question is how to ensure it stays that way. Also what happens to the people who are there now? Do they get to relocate to Ukraine proper if they choose?
The Russians would be satisfied with a moderate, pro-peace government in Kiev, the current one is a nationalist anti-Russian government that views all Russian aspects as undesirable, banning Russian language etc.
If the Ukrainians think that a government has been imposed upon them by Russia it will not be seen as legitimate and we'll just be right back to all this again. Russia does not get to decide who governs Ukraine.
At the very least, the Russians will be able to veto a Kiev government that is anti-Russian, they will keep fighting until that condition is fulfilled. They have the military and economic upper hand.
And I say again: if they try to impose a new government that the population sees as illegitimate, there will not be lasting peace. This would be like Israel trying to install a new Palestinian Authority that they approved of and calling that new version of Palestine a free country. Not gonna work.
Your continued glazing of Russia's prospects is noted, though.
My assessment of the prospects in this war are grounded in the military and economic realities.
Keep in mind that Zelensky was voted in on a peace/compromise with Russia and the Russian minority platform.
The Israelis did install (or at the very least, shape) the current PA government, which is a Palestinian equivalent of a Vichy regime. You're right though, the next Ukrainian government will have to reflect the national mood and aspirations. A moderate, pro-peace government is not necessarily in opposition to that.
The recent declaration by Zelensky reflects the general mood of the country towards a compromise, in light of mounting losses and the change in strategy of the Russians in attacking Ukrainian infrastructure.
