In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

How far are we from #2?

oski003 said:

---

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

How far are we from #2?

---

Like Not #2 far. Because I asked him to clarify the definition of "current borders" and he did not and the conflict is not over. This #2 is so generic and "roughly" as to be meaningless. It's basically, there were will be fighting and there will be winners and losers and deaths and survivors and there will be changes and everything will still be the same.

But if you wish to continue drinking from his font of Russian loyalty and know-it-allness, be my guest.

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

I was right on the dot about the number of KIAs, there has been about 250,000 more Ukrainian KIAs since November of last year, vs around 25,000 Russian KIAs.

I was also right about the outcome, Russia is winning, but just not about the pace of territorial gains. Russian military strategy has been very conservative, it was dictated by Ukraine/NATO ill-advised offensive against the layered fortified lines that Surovikin built last year in a misguided attempt at breaking the Crimean land bridge. The Russians just sat back while Ukrainian soldiers tried to break through heavily mined, fortified terrain with no air cover and much lower use of artillery. This explains the wide discrepancy in casualty figures. It also explains the relative lack of border movement the last year.

I was completely right about Russia winning this war of attrition. It looks like they are going to keep grinding this winter until the Ukrainian dam breaks, after which they will be able to make larger/faster territorial gains. This will likely happen anytime between this Summer and the following one. Predicting the outcome of the war is a lot easier than predicting its timing.

Contrast my prediction above with that of most NATO analysts and MSM/MIC generals like Ben Hodges, who predicted last year that Russian defenses would fold and that Ukraine would break the Crimean land bridge and liberate Crimea by the end of last Summer:

Gen. Ben Hodges (@general_ben) on January 6, 2023: "I believe that Ukraine is going to liberate Crimea by the end of August"

Hodges continues to make constant media appearances offering his expert opinions/predictions. There is simply no penalty for chronically-wrong war pundits pic.twitter.com/S3Du7bJx1Q

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) December 13, 2023

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

I'm not surprised he would have said something like this because it's based on completely made up numbers and was disproven almost immediately.

Ukraine has held Kherson for over a year and has launched numerous successful attacks on Crimea. It did not lead to WWIII and last time I checked the world has not seen anywhere close to 100 million dead.

I stopped reading his posts a long time ago, but if you go back to the very beginning. Putin apologists like Putin88 have had this war wrong and always wrong in favor of Putin. They constantly pile up made up casualty numbers and ignore all Russian losses (as does Putin) because they have to in order to pretend that Russia is stronger than ever.

I've spoken at length about Russia's firehose of falsehoods, but this is pretty much textbook behavior.

Up until the day Putin invaded, people like Putin88 were claiming it wouldn't happen (wish I could find the famous tweet from that period). Then they told us it wasn't a war, it was a "special military operation" and that he wouldn't occupy Ukraine, he was just there to denazify and demilitarize. Remember that? They have been wrong since before the war started and will be wrong long after it eventually ends because their goal isn't to discuss reality, it's to present alternative facts that defend everything Putin does. I don't know why some of them do it, but the pattern is clear as day.

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

Unit2Sucks said:

---

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

I'm not surprised he would have said something like this because it's based on completely made up numbers and was disproven almost immediately.

Ukraine has held Kherson for over a year and has launched numerous successful attacks on Crimea. It did not lead to WWIII and last time I checked the world has not seen anywhere close to 100 million dead.

I stopped reading his posts a long time ago, but if you go back to the very beginning. Putin apologists like Putin88 have had this war wrong and always wrong in favor of Putin. They constantly pile up made up casualty numbers and ignore all Russian losses (as does Putin) because they have to in order to pretend that Russia is stronger than ever.

I've spoken at length about Russia's firehose of falsehoods, but this is pretty much textbook behavior.

Up until the day Putin invaded, people like Putin88 were claiming it wouldn't happen (wish I could find the famous tweet from that period). Then they told us it wasn't a war, it was a "special military operation" and that he wouldn't occupy Ukraine, he was just there to denazify and demilitarize. Remember that? They have been wrong since before the war started and will be wrong long after it eventually ends because their goal isn't to discuss reality, it's to present alternative facts that defend everything Putin does. I don't know why some of them do it, but the pattern is clear as day.

---

It isn't as much pro-Putin as anti-American.

It is why I can agree with Cal88 on his Israel takes.

Is there any American foreign policy Cal88 supports?

concordtom said:

---

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

---

No, rather it is folks again doing a circle jerk accusing those against the Ukrainian war as being Pro-Putin and Pro-Russia.

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

---

No, rather it is folks again doing a circle jerk accusing those against the Ukrainian war as being Pro-Putin and Pro-Russia.

---

Oh. Well if you are against the Ukraine war, then maybe you can call Putin and tell him to call off the dogs and go home.

concordtom said:

---

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

---

No, rather it is folks again doing a circle jerk accusing those against the Ukrainian war as being Pro-Putin and Pro-Russia.

---

Oh. Well if you are against the Ukraine war, then maybe you can call Putin and tell him to call off the dogs and go home.

---

Can you give me his number? What kind of peace treaty are you offering?

Yes of course Cal88 you absolutely nailed it. You are always right.

I know that normally when someone says that ONLY one of three things will happen by this date, and it doesn't happen, then they are wrong. But I am super simpleminded and your multiple paragraphs show more sophisticated minds are right when others are wrong.

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

---

No, rather it is folks again doing a circle jerk accusing those against the Ukrainian war as being Pro-Putin and Pro-Russia.

---

Oh. Well if you are against the Ukraine war, then maybe you can call Putin and tell him to call off the dogs and go home.

---

Can you give me his number? What kind of peace treaty are you offering?

---

You are the apologist who wants to just let his army take over new lands. That's on you.

concordtom said:

---

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

---

No, rather it is folks again doing a circle jerk accusing those against the Ukrainian war as being Pro-Putin and Pro-Russia.

---

Oh. Well if you are against the Ukraine war, then maybe you can call Putin and tell him to call off the dogs and go home.

---

Can you give me his number? What kind of peace treaty are you offering?

---

You are the apologist who wants to just let his army take over new lands. That's on you.

---

I would certainly like Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, give the separatist areas to the rest of Ukraine, and advise all pro-Russian dissenters to either move to Russia or support Ukraine while Ukraine feels secure enough to trust the people in those areas and allow them freedom and everyone in Ukraine to be happy, free, and not fear death. I just don't think that is realistic. It would be very nice though. Thinking that isn't a realistic outcome doesn't make me a Putin apologist.

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

Looks like we're at #2, and not too far from #1.

I don't think we're too many weeks away from #1, though I don't see Western Ukraine being "absorbed" into Poland & Hungary. We'll find out when we get there.

But I don't think that Cal88 was too far off.

OTOH, if you were following U.S. corporate propaganda last November, you were probably thinking that Russia was on the verge of collapse. They aren't. The U.S. NeoCons & corporate propagandists told us that the sanctions alone would bring Russia to their knees. Instead, Russia found willing oil & gas customers in China & India, and now the BRICS account for more GDP than the G7 -- and this is before Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE join BRICS on January 1.

I think that at some point I said that there were two choices -- a) a negotiated settlement, or; b) WW3. As much as Biden & Blinken would love to stay at the current stalemate (#2) for months or years, it's simply not an option. That's why their/our support for Ukraine went from "As long as it takes" to "As long as we can."

We have a lot of the world's best defense technology, and we have the best-capitalized and most profitable "defense" contractors in the world -- but we still don't have enough production capacity to supply both Ukraine and Israel with 155mm artillery shells. Instead of investing in increased capacity, they did what any patriotic U.S. corporation would do -- Buy Back Shares.

I said at the beginning of this war: "Believe very little of what you hear." As always, Truth is the first casualty of war.

So Cal88's prediction won't come true. But his prediction is far more accurate and prescient than any of the predictions of corporate media.

concordtom said:

---

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

---

AuntyBear89 is having one last hissy fit before going to her next time out session.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

I'm not surprised he would have said something like this because it's based on completely made up numbers and was disproven almost immediately.

Ukraine has held Kherson for over a year and has launched numerous successful attacks on Crimea. It did not lead to WWIII and last time I checked the world has not seen anywhere close to 100 million dead.

I stopped reading his posts a long time ago, but if you go back to the very beginning. Putin apologists like Putin88 have had this war wrong and always wrong in favor of Putin. They constantly pile up made up casualty numbers and ignore all Russian losses (as does Putin) because they have to in order to pretend that Russia is stronger than ever.

I've spoken at length about Russia's firehose of falsehoods, but this is pretty much textbook behavior.

Up until the day Putin invaded, people like Putin88 were claiming it wouldn't happen (wish I could find the famous tweet from that period). Then they told us it wasn't a war, it was a "special military operation" and that he wouldn't occupy Ukraine, he was just there to denazify and demilitarize. Remember that? They have been wrong since before the war started and will be wrong long after it eventually ends because their goal isn't to discuss reality, it's to present alternative facts that defend everything Putin does. I don't know why some of them do it, but the pattern is clear as day.

---

Don't forget the claim that Russia's failed drive on Kiev at the outset of the war wasn't to conquer Kiev, it was just because Putin, who is dead, wanted Eastern Ukraine. Russia has already lost this war. They have humiliated themselves as aggressors on the battlefield. They have shown themselves to be a paper tiger, compared to NATO (other than their nuclear stockpile). Nothing left for them to do now but run the goalposts way, way back and send out the firehose of falsehoods.

dimitrig said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

I'm not surprised he would have said something like this because it's based on completely made up numbers and was disproven almost immediately.

Ukraine has held Kherson for over a year and has launched numerous successful attacks on Crimea. It did not lead to WWIII and last time I checked the world has not seen anywhere close to 100 million dead.

I stopped reading his posts a long time ago, but if you go back to the very beginning. Putin apologists like Putin88 have had this war wrong and always wrong in favor of Putin. They constantly pile up made up casualty numbers and ignore all Russian losses (as does Putin) because they have to in order to pretend that Russia is stronger than ever.

I've spoken at length about Russia's firehose of falsehoods, but this is pretty much textbook behavior.

Up until the day Putin invaded, people like Putin88 were claiming it wouldn't happen (wish I could find the famous tweet from that period). Then they told us it wasn't a war, it was a "special military operation" and that he wouldn't occupy Ukraine, he was just there to denazify and demilitarize. Remember that? They have been wrong since before the war started and will be wrong long after it eventually ends because their goal isn't to discuss reality, it's to present alternative facts that defend everything Putin does. I don't know why some of them do it, but the pattern is clear as day.

---

It isn't as much pro-Putin as anti-American.

It is why I can agree with Cal88 on his Israel takes.

Is there any American foreign policy Cal88 supports?

---

Is there any American foreign policy worth supporting today, or in the last 50+ years? Very, very few, the Berlin airlift, supporting the Solidarnosc liberation movement in 1980s Poland, striking the Taliban in 2001, reining in Israeli responses in 1956, 67, 73 (something that is sorely needed today). Yugoslavia 1990's is not as clear cut a positive intervention case, with some retrospect, though it isn't nearly as bad as any in the following partial list of US foreign policy interventions:

Iran 1954
Indonesia 1965
Vietnam
About a dozen coups in Latin America
Cambodia
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Iraq
Haiti
Honduras
Syria
Libya

^All of these are major black marks, US imperial policies resulting in the deaths of several million people.

cbbass1 said:

---

blungld said:

---

In true Cal88 fashion as the self-appointed only expert analyst on the war in Ukraine, he TOLD us all that these were the ONLY three possible outcomes, and that these outcomes would be decided by the end of 2023. Let's check in on that and see if he can admit that he was wrong and not try and weasel out with things like "it may still play out this way". He would have been even further from being right, but when pushed to be more specific (especially with his catchall #2) he never responded. Cal88 said this on November 1, 2022:

"So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

The 'Putin is a Bad Hombre' school of geopolitics advocating continued warfare and military escalation has been in charge of US/NATO policy, which will lead to one of the three outcomes above by the end of next year."

---

Looks like we're at #2, and not too far from #1.

I don't think we're too many weeks away from #1, though I don't see Western Ukraine being "absorbed" into Poland & Hungary. We'll find out when we get there.

But I don't think that Cal88 was too far off.

OTOH, if you were following U.S. corporate propaganda last November, you were probably thinking that Russia was on the verge of collapse. They aren't. The U.S. NeoCons & corporate propagandists told us that the sanctions alone would bring Russia to their knees. Instead, Russia found willing oil & gas customers in China & India, and now the BRICS account for more GDP than the G7 -- and this is before Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE join BRICS on January 1.

I think that at some point I said that there were two choices -- a) a negotiated settlement, or; b) WW3. As much as Biden & Blinken would love to stay at the current stalemate (#2) for months or years, it's simply not an option. That's why their/our support for Ukraine went from "As long as it takes" to "As long as we can."

We have a lot of the world's best defense technology, and we have the best-capitalized and most profitable "defense" contractors in the world -- but we still don't have enough production capacity to supply both Ukraine and Israel with 155mm artillery shells. Instead of investing in increased capacity, they did what any patriotic U.S. corporation would do -- Buy Back Shares.

I said at the beginning of this war: "Believe very little of what you hear." As always, Truth is the first casualty of war.

So Cal88's prediction won't come true. But his prediction is far more accurate and prescient than any of the predictions of corporate media.

---

Even MSM sources are starting to acknowledge that Russia is winning the war of attrition.

The main issue and sticking point here in the assessment of the current situation is the number of casualties. Ukraine has close to 500,000 KIAs, while Russia has around 50,000-60,000 KIAs, according to the most reliable source on Russian casualties, the BBC-affiliated Mediazona Project:

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

That is why Russia is winning.

Eventually the true extent of Ukrainian losses will be revealed by concerned Ukrainian sources, we might see some divisions within Ukrainian leadership (esp. military) and within their civil society as the losses keep mounting and the prospects of a Ukraine military victory become increasingly slim even among the faithful.

From the mediazona website Cal88 is using as a source of Russian casualties.
"These figures represent only a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the casualties.
The actual death toll is likely significantly higher."

Putin88 takes another L. What is his source for Ukrainian casualties?

bear2034 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

What's going on here, somebody cheering for Russia again?

---

AuntyBear89 is having one last hissy fit before going to her next time out session.

---

Says the zombie account of MAGAt poster BearFarce.

dajo9 said:

---

From the mediazona website Cal88 is using as a source of Russian casualties.
"These figures represent only a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the casualties.
The actual death toll is likely significantly higher."

Putin88 takes another L. What is his source for Ukrainian casualties?

---

If you had an ounce of honesty in your character, you would have quoted the full sentence:

"The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. A joint data investigation by Mediazona and Meduza estimated in July that by the end of May, approximately 47,000 Russians under the age of 50 had died in the Ukraine war."

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

My estimate above of Russian KIAs was 50,000-60,000, it is entirely consistent with Mediazona's estimate.

Their estimate also exposes the "leaked" US intel estimate of 300,000+ Russian KIAs as basic government disinfo.

Here is a BBC News Russian article estimating Russian KIA (including troops from the breakaway republics) at 103,000. This article also estimates wounded at 200,000 and reports a total estimate of casualties at 309,000.

The BBC News Russian estimate is perfectly consistent with the U.S. casualty estimate of 315,000.

What BBC News Russian is doing is trying to identify confirmed Russian killed by name in a national landscape of information suppression. The count excludes breakaway republic KIA (estimated 23k). They have confirmed ~40k dead individuals. This count is not intended to be a count of total KIA - just those that can be 100% confirmed and identified within the totalitarian state of Russia.

What Putin88 is doing is taking this act of rebellion of identifying and naming the dead and trying to report it out as the total number. He knows Putin, who is dead, has been suppressing the information that BBC News Russian is trying to expose. He has wrapped the challenges of their effort within his propaganda.

https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/russian-war-losses-in-ukraine-2023

dajo9 said:

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Here is a BBC News Russian article estimating Russian KIA (including troops from the breakaway republics) at 103,000. This article also estimates wounded at 200,000 and reports a total estimate of casualties at 309,000.

The BBC News Russian estimate is perfectly consistent with the U.S. casualty estimate of 315,000.

What BBC News Russian is doing is trying to identify confirmed Russian killed by name in a national landscape of information suppression. The count excludes breakaway republic KIA (estimated 23k). They have confirmed ~40k dead individuals. This count is not intended to be a count of total KIA - just those that can be 100% confirmed and identified within the totalitarian state of Russia.

What Putin88 is doing is taking this act of rebellion of identifying and naming the dead and trying to report it out as the total number. He knows Putin, who is dead, has been suppressing the information that BBC News Russian is trying to expose. He has wrapped the challenges of their effort within his propaganda.

https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/russian-war-losses-in-ukraine-2023

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You've tried to discredit me by cutting a passage from the Mediazona site when you knew full well that their total estimate for Russians KIAs based on their careful research was 47,000 dead as of last May, entirely consistent with my own estimate or 50k to 60k KIAs.

That Mediazona estimate of 47,000 KIAs by May 23 includes their best estimate of those killed but not officially reported. This is a western NGO related to the BBC whose main purpose is to document and estimate Russian losses, they are better qualified to do this job than just about any other source.


My estimate of Ukrainian losses is based on several sources, including Col. MacGregor, who has access to inside info through his contacts with high-level NATO brass both in the US and in Europe. Ukrainian and NATO sources have also corroborated his estimates, including Ursula von der Leyen's candid moment where the former German Minister of Defense stated that Ukraine has already lost more than 100,000 KIAs as of November 2022.



Furthermore, the scale of Ukrainian losses is entirely consistent with their incredibly aggressive conscription policies. Would a nation of 20 million have to resort to conscripting grandfathers and pregnant women, people with Parkinson or missing limbs if their losses weren't massive??

Back in July I wrote a thread analyzing Ukrainian personnel losses in the context of German casualties in WWII, in which I determined that due to extreme casualties they could not sustain the war effort much past Spring 2024.

Today their new mobilization law came out and it's… pic.twitter.com/PDWrFf5Rj9

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) December 27, 2023

"Today their new mobilization law came out and it's insane. Here's some highlights. People are now fully eligible for service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in "Disability Group III," comprising people who:

1. Are missing or blind in one eye
2. Are partially deaf
3. Have a tracheotomy
4. Have jaw defects that prevent normal chewing
5. Suffer from dwarfism (<130cm for men)
6. Have a missing or nonfunctional arm
7. Have an amputated leg up to the thigh
8. Are missing fingers
9. Are missing both feet
10. Have a pacemaker implanted
11. Have only one working kidney
12. Have only one working lung
13. Have suffered from "traumatic castration"
14. Have a brain abscess (!)
15. Have a substantial skull defect
16. Have Parkinson's (!)
17. Have extreme scoliosis
18. Have severe chest deformities
19. Have "severe adrenal insufficiency" (it's a war eh?)
20. Have no bladder."

I discredited you by posting a full article of theirs that coincides with the U.S. estimate

dajo9 said:

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I discredited you by posting a full article of theirs that coincides with the U.S. estimate

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That article is not from Mediazona, the source you've tried to misquote in your attempt at discrediting me above. You have substituted that source, which is a western NGO which was set up with the specific goal of documenting and analyzing Russian casualties, with a BBC article that is a basic reporting of a US intel release.

dajo9 said:

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Here is a BBC News Russian article estimating Russian KIA (including troops from the breakaway republics) at 103,000. This article also estimates wounded at 200,000 and reports a total estimate of casualties at 309,000.

The BBC News Russian estimate is perfectly consistent with the U.S. casualty estimate of 315,000.

What BBC News Russian is doing is trying to identify confirmed Russian killed by name in a national landscape of information suppression. The count excludes breakaway republic KIA (estimated 23k). They have confirmed ~40k dead individuals. This count is not intended to be a count of total KIA - just those that can be 100% confirmed and identified within the totalitarian state of Russia.

What Putin88 is doing is taking this act of rebellion of identifying and naming the dead and trying to report it out as the total number. He knows Putin, who is dead, has been suppressing the information that BBC News Russian is trying to expose. He has wrapped the challenges of their effort within his propaganda.

https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/russian-war-losses-in-ukraine-2023

---

The only way to defeat the sort of propaganda Putin88 spouts is by burying it, not highlighting it. There is nothing genuine about what he's doing so when you disagree with his ridiculous lies, all you are doing is giving him yet another opportunity to repeat it. Uninformed people who aren't smart enough to realize what Putin88 is, will incorporate some percentage of his information into their worldview. The more he spouts it, the more likely they are to believe it.

blungld started this thread in a somewhat noble attempt to reset things by pointing out one post (among hundreds or thousands of similar tripe) that has proven incredibly wrong. Similar to people pointing out how wrong Putin88 was on election day 2020.

I'm guessing rather than accept his lumps and admit that Ukraine took back Kherson, launched numerous attacks on Crimea and that WWIII hasn't started and 100m people haven't been killed, I expect he is just using this opportunity to spread more propaganda from his discord channels and Russian shills on twitter.

In other words, pointing out Putin88's lies is a win for him because it draws attention to the lies and lets him repeat and amplify. This is exactly the same pattern we saw with Trump.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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Here is a BBC News Russian article estimating Russian KIA (including troops from the breakaway republics) at 103,000. This article also estimates wounded at 200,000 and reports a total estimate of casualties at 309,000.

The BBC News Russian estimate is perfectly consistent with the U.S. casualty estimate of 315,000.

What BBC News Russian is doing is trying to identify confirmed Russian killed by name in a national landscape of information suppression. The count excludes breakaway republic KIA (estimated 23k). They have confirmed ~40k dead individuals. This count is not intended to be a count of total KIA - just those that can be 100% confirmed and identified within the totalitarian state of Russia.

What Putin88 is doing is taking this act of rebellion of identifying and naming the dead and trying to report it out as the total number. He knows Putin, who is dead, has been suppressing the information that BBC News Russian is trying to expose. He has wrapped the challenges of their effort within his propaganda.

https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/russian-war-losses-in-ukraine-2023

---

The only way to defeat the sort of propaganda Putin88 spouts is by burying it, not highlighting it. There is nothing genuine about what he's doing so when you disagree with his ridiculous lies, all you are doing is giving him yet another opportunity to repeat it. Uninformed people who aren't smart enough to realize what Putin88 is, will incorporate some percentage of his information into their worldview. The more he spouts it, the more likely they are to believe it.

blungld started this thread in a somewhat noble attempt to reset things by pointing out one post (among hundreds or thousands of similar tripe) that has proven incredibly wrong. Similar to people pointing out how wrong Putin88 was on election day 2020.

I'm guessing rather than accept his lumps and admit that Ukraine took back Kherson, launched numerous attacks on Crimea and that WWIII hasn't started and 100m people haven't been killed, I expect he is just using this opportunity to spread more propaganda from his discord channels and Russian shills on twitter.

In other words, pointing out Putin88's lies is a win for him because it draws attention to the lies and lets him repeat and amplify. This is exactly the same pattern we saw with Trump.

---

Here's a challenge for you or Blungld: find a prediction of the Ukraine war outcome made in 2022 that is more accurate than the one I've made here.

Quote:

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So now that NATO is all in, there are three possible outcomes:

1- Russia wins, conquers/annexes "Novorossiya", Russian-speaking 35%-40% of southern and eastern Ukraine, forces Ukraine into a settlement. Parts of western Ukraine are absorbed into Poland and Hungary.
Another 250,000+ dead
~65% chance of this outcome happening

2- Stalemate along roughly the current borders, both sides nearly exhausted in a WW1-like artillery war.
another 250,000-500,000 dead, on top of the current 250,000+
~30% probablity

3-Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea.
World War III starts; 500,000 - 100,000,000 dead, depending on escalation dynamics
5% probability

---

By "Ukraine wins back Kherson, attacks Crimea" I meant Ukraine rolling back Russian forces in the south and advancing towards Crimea, not Ukraine managing to lob a few missiles on Crimea. Their entire counteroffensive was geared towards that goal of advancing towards Crimea, Gen. Hodges even predicted that Ukraine would take Crimea by August 23 - and it was a total failure.

My prediction above was accurate, the main debate here is whether the first or second outcome materialized. The actual outcome is an apparent stalemate if you go by border movements alone, but a Russian win if you go by the casualty figures.

Von Clausewitz, who is to modern western military doctrine what Sun Tzu is to Chinese military doctrine, wrote that the main goal of warfare is to destroy the opponent's military. The Russians are largely achieving this, they've settled on a type of warfare that favors them early on, a more static artillery duel where they have a 7-8 to 1 advantage in firepower volume, in addition to their substantial advantage in standoff weapons (missiles, drones, gliding bombs). That advantage was further amplified by Ukraine stubbornly going all in on their offensive against heavily-mined Russian fortified lines in the south.

In any case, once the true extent of Ukrainian losses is confirmed from Ukrainian/NATO sources, this debate will be moot.

Cal88 said:

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cbbass1 said:

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So Cal88's prediction won't come true. But his prediction is far more accurate and prescient than any of the predictions of corporate media.

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Even MSM sources are starting to acknowledge that Russia is winning the war of attrition.

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It's so weird. I went to Vegas and told them that Cal would go undefeated this year in football, but when I went to collect my winnings they wouldn't pay out. They refused to listen to my absolutely factually true statements that at one point we were undefeated, and that we were in process of being undefeated again next year. I totally won that bet.

You know, you could just say you were wrong.

blungld said:

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Cal88 said:

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cbbass1 said:

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So Cal88's prediction won't come true. But his prediction is far more accurate and prescient than any of the predictions of corporate media.

---

Even MSM sources are starting to acknowledge that Russia is winning the war of attrition.

---

It's so weird. I went to Vegas and told them that Cal would go undefeated this year in football, but when I went to collect my winnings they wouldn't pay out. They refused to listen to my absolutely factually true statements that at one point we were undefeated, and that we were in process of being undefeated again next year. I totally won that bet.

You know, you could just say you were wrong.

---

I will be able to "claim my winnings" after the fog of war lifts.

People who fundamentally believed the prevailing narrative thought that Ukraine could win the war, or continue to push back the Russians after they had retreated to consolidate their position in the Fall of 22. I put the chances of this happening at 5%.

I put the chances of a stalemate and mutual exhaustion at 30%. While the borders haven't moved much, Ukrainian losses have been much higher, and any objective observer will notice that it is the side that is increasingly being strained, both in personnel and in equipment.

I put the chances of Russian victory at 65%, and while we have only seen small territorial gains for them, the attrition rate has been far greater for Ukraine, a rate that will not be sustainable going forward. At some point in the next 6 to 18 months, the Ukrainian dam is going to break.

How Russia is winning the war in Ukraine
Less than six months after the Wagner rebellion, when the Western media was frantically writing Vladimir Putin's obituaries, Russia is well and truly headed towards victory in Ukraine.
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/russia-winning-ukraine-war-9050744/

PUTIN IS WINNING THE WAR IN UKRAINE FOR NOW THE ECONOMIST
For the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin's chances of winning the war look increasingly realistic, writes publication The Economist.
https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/putin-is-winning-the-war-in-ukraine-for-now-the-economist/

Tuberville says Ukraine can't win war: 'It's a junior high team playing a college team'
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4143533-tuberville-says-ukraine-cant-win-war-against-russia/
(I kind of disagree about the gap here, it's more like Kansas vs Nebraska circa 1980s)

LET SOMEONE SAY IT: RUSSIA IS WINNING IN UKRAINE, HERE'S WHY
https://iari.site/2023/12/05/let-someone-say-it-russia-is-winning-in-ukraine-heres-why/

Quote:

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Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the thinking that led to unequivocal analytical assessments has been immediately labeled as "pro-Putin." Unfortunately, the ability to conduct analyses has been confused with propaganda, and now it is evident to everyone that many analysts were correct in predicting a challenging "victory" for Ukraine.

From the beginning of hostilities, I was among the few who considered both a Russian victory, understood as the complete occupation of Ukrainian territory, and a total reclamation of the eastern territories occupied by the Russians by the Kiev army, as difficult.

Few, inexplicably, understood the analytical reasoning, and perhaps driven by partisanship, branded those who, like myself, reasoned on real principles as pro-Putin. However, the thesis I presented did not seem difficult to understand, and today, almost two years into uninterrupted warfare, it seems that time has proven me right.

---

The only thing I ever fundamentally believed about this war was that Russia would roll into Kiev in the first few weeks. But Russia humiliated itself and lost the war back then. Now Russia is hoping for a propaganda victory.

dajo9 said:

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The only thing I ever fundamentally believed about this war was that Russia would roll into Kiev in the first few weeks. But Russia humiliated itself and lost the war back then. Now Russia is hoping for a propaganda victory.

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You also fundamentally believe that Putin is dead.

dimitrig said:

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It isn't as much pro-Putin as anti-American.

It is why I can agree with Cal88 on his Israel takes.

Is there any American foreign policy Cal88 supports?

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For several of the anti-Ukraine, anti-Israel folks here I think this is true, that it's just anti-Americanism. For Cal88 it's pro-Putin. He's pretty clearly following the Russian party line on everything.

I will once again repeat that everyone should have stopped taking Cal88 seriously 6 1/2 years ago when he referenced completely fabricated Time Magazine articles in support of his position against global warming. No, he will never admit that this happened. He will occasionally say that he is about to "destroy" this claim against him and then won't actually do it. And yes, claiming that man-made climate change isn't real is entirely consistent with Putin's propaganda, built to support his fading petro-state.

dajo9 said:

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The only thing I ever fundamentally believed about this war was that Russia would roll into Kiev in the first few weeks. But Russia humiliated itself and lost the war back then. Now Russia is hoping for a propaganda victory.

---

5 days ago:



I imagine some in Russia would be happy!!!
And if they can get Odessa before a settlement then Ukraine is hosed when it comes to getting their agriculture to market. Russia would tax the hell out of it.

sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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It isn't as much pro-Putin as anti-American.

It is why I can agree with Cal88 on his Israel takes.

Is there any American foreign policy Cal88 supports?

---

For several of the anti-Ukraine, anti-Israel folks here I think this is true, that it's just anti-Americanism. For Cal88 it's pro-Putin. He's pretty clearly following the Russian party line on everything.

I will once again repeat that everyone should have stopped taking Cal88 seriously 6 1/2 years ago when he referenced completely fabricated Time Magazine articles in support of his position against global warming. No, he will never admit that this happen. He will occasionally say that he is about to "destroy" this claim against him and then won't actually do it. And yes, claiming that man-made climate change isn't real is entirely consistent with Putin's propaganda, built to support his fading petro-state.

---

You're lying about Time Magazine, the article in question here was a series of 1970s Time Magazine covers about global cooling and massive winter blizzards sweeping N. America. There were 4 time Magazine covers in one image I posted (top row below), and out of these 4 covers, one of them turned out to be photoshoped, while the other three were real. That is the extent of the evidence you've used to smear me,



I've also presented in the same thread well over a dozen other news and scientific articles from the 1970s that also showed a zeitgeist leitmotiv of global cooling. Fixating on that one Time Magazine cover in a repeated attempt to smear me is dishonest and hypocritical.

As well the reason you're bringing this half-baked stale argument on here is because you have no argument against the basic premise that I was right about Ukraine. It's not anti-American to be against a very bloody war that has been planned decades ahead with the nurturing of the worst kind of vintage European nationalism in Kiev by NATO. And I do realize that for some it doesn't matter how much evidence I can post about how Banderism was fostered in Ukraine and how that country was pushed into a war that it could not win, a war that was entirely avoidable, in the end it's always about Putin and those damn russkies.

Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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It isn't as much pro-Putin as anti-American.

It is why I can agree with Cal88 on his Israel takes.

Is there any American foreign policy Cal88 supports?

---

For several of the anti-Ukraine, anti-Israel folks here I think this is true, that it's just anti-Americanism. For Cal88 it's pro-Putin. He's pretty clearly following the Russian party line on everything.

I will once again repeat that everyone should have stopped taking Cal88 seriously 6 1/2 years ago when he referenced completely fabricated Time Magazine articles in support of his position against global warming. No, he will never admit that this happen. He will occasionally say that he is about to "destroy" this claim against him and then won't actually do it. And yes, claiming that man-made climate change isn't real is entirely consistent with Putin's propaganda, built to support his fading petro-state.

---

You're lying about Time Magazine, the article in question here was a series of 1970s Time Magazine covers about global cooling and massive winter blizzards sweeping N. America. There were 4 time Magazine covers in one image I posted (top row below), and out of these 4 covers, one of them turned out to be photoshoped, while the other three were real. That is the extent of the evidence you've used to smear me,

---

For the millionth time: the other three articles were not about climate change. You claimed they were, because you haven't actually read them and are just shotgunning propaganda.