Bye Bye Rate Cuts!

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concordtom
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We're screwed!


What percentage of GDP did the national debt represent in 1980, 85, 90, 95, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020

Here are the percentages of GDP represented by the U.S. national debt for the specified years:

1. 1980: Approximately 33.4% of GDP
2. 1985: Approximately 42.9% of GDP
3. 1990: Approximately 53.1% of GDP
4. 1995: Approximately 65.8% of GDP
5. 2000: Approximately 56.4% of GDP
6. 2005: Approximately 63.2% of GDP
7. 2010: Approximately 90.1% of GDP
8. 2015: Approximately 104.8% of GDP
9. 2020: Approximately 100.1% of GDP

Please note that these figures are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source of the data. Additionally, the GDP figures used for these calculations are nominal GDP, not adjusted for inflation.

What was the total accumulated national debt for those years?

Here are the approximate total accumulated national debts for the specified years:

1. 1980: Approximately $907 billion
2. 1985: Approximately $1.8 trillion
3. 1990: Approximately $3.2 trillion
4. 1995: Approximately $4.9 trillion
5. 2000: Approximately $5.7 trillion
6. 2005: Approximately $7.9 trillion
7. 2010: Approximately $13.6 trillion
8. 2015: Approximately $18.2 trillion
9. 2020: Approximately $26.9 trillion

Please note that these figures are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source of the data and the specific date within each year. The national debt represents the total amount of outstanding debt owed by the federal government.

What was the yield on the 10 year T bill for those same years?

Here are the approximate yields on the 10-year Treasury bond (T-bill) for the specified years:

1. 1980: Approximately 11.4%
2. 1985: Approximately 10.2%
3. 1990: Approximately 8.6%
4. 1995: Approximately 6.6%
5. 2000: Approximately 6.6%
6. 2005: Approximately 4.3%
7. 2010: Approximately 3.3%
8. 2015: Approximately 2.2%
9. 2020: Approximately 0.9%

Please note that these figures are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source of the data and the specific date within each year. The yields represent annualized rates of return on the 10-year Treasury bond.

And the percent of federal budget that interest was in those years?

Here are the approximate percentages of the federal budget that interest on the debt represented for the specified years:

1. 1980: Approximately 10.7% of the federal budget
2. 1985: Approximately 15.3% of the federal budget
3. 1990: Approximately 15.7% of the federal budget
4. 1995: Approximately 15.8% of the federal budget
5. 2000: Approximately 14.6% of the federal budget
6. 2005: Approximately 8.7% of the federal budget
7. 2010: Approximately 5.9% of the federal budget
8. 2015: Approximately 6.8% of the federal budget
9. 2020: Approximately 8.6% of the federal budget

Please note that these figures are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source of the data and the specific calculation method used. The percentages represent the portion of the federal budget allocated to paying interest on the national debt.

Do you know the average interest rate that the federal government paid on the debt in 1980?

In 1980, the average interest rate that the federal government paid on its debt was approximately 11.2%.

In 2020?


In 2020, the average interest rate that the federal government paid on its debt was approximately 1.8%.

Are you able to estimate how much this percentage would be in 2020 if the timer light T-bill know was at 1980 levels but with the actual 2020 debt figure?

To estimate the percentage of the federal budget allocated to paying interest on the national debt in 2020 if the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond (T-bill) was at 1980 levels but with the actual 2020 debt figure, we can use the following steps:

1. Determine the yield on the 10-year T-bill for 1980, which was approximately 11.4%.
2. Calculate the interest expense for the national debt in 2020 using the actual debt figure for that year, which was approximately $26.9 trillion.
3. Estimate the federal budget for 2020.
4. Calculate the percentage of the federal budget allocated to paying interest on the debt using the interest expense and the total federal budget.

Let's go through these steps:

1. Yield on the 10-year T-bill for 1980: 11.4%
2. Interest expense for the national debt in 2020: $26.9 trillion * (11.4% / 100) = approximately $3.065 trillion
3. Federal budget for 2020: Let's assume it was $4.8 trillion (this is an approximation).
4. Percentage of federal budget allocated to paying interest on the debt in 2020: ($3.065 trillion / $4.8 trillion) * 100 = approximately 63.9%

Therefore, if the yield on the 10-year T-bill was at 1980 levels (11.4%) but with the actual 2020 debt figure, the percentage of the federal budget allocated to paying interest on the debt in 2020 would be approximately 63.9%.

DiabloWags
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April NFP = 175,000 and below expectations (240k)

February NFP revised down from 270,000 to 236,000

Average hourly wage: +0.2% and +3.9% over the last year (lowest since June 2021)

10 year yield drops to: 4.48%

Dow Futures: +490

S&P Futures: +58



April jobs report shows hiring, wage growth slow as unemployment unexpectedly jumps (yahoo.com)

April US jobs report shows looser labor market, good news for Fed (yahoo.com)

April jobs report shows 175,000 jobs were added last month (usatoday.com)




"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags
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Fed Funds Futures and Probability of Rate Cuts:

Hope for a late Summer rate cut springs eternal.

48.7% in September

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
 
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