I voted yesterday in California.

Very quick. Very smooth.

Didn't need to show my ID.

Only provided my name and address.

The final poll average at 538 shows Harris with 48.0% of the vote to Trump's 46.8%.

I am shocked it would ever be that close nationally.

If those numbers are correct we are looking at a Trump win today unless they are distributed in ways that are very favorable to Kamala in the swing states.

Biden was up something like 7-8% at the final poll in 2020.

Are there stealth Kamala voters not being counted? If so, there better be a lot of them.

I think a lot of people just won't vote for a woman. We saw one here.

I also think a lot of people won't vote for a black person.

That's a lot of headwind to overcome in a tight race.

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

Your last paragraph is definitely true.

Polls are inexact and can't predict voter turnout. Hell, even bad weather can affect voter turnout and results.

VOTE BLUE and donate to ACTBlue

BearGoggles said:

---

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

---

Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.

tRump couldn't landslide Flipper or Koko the monkey.

happy election day pic.twitter.com/7gBpVrdsTB

— no context curb your enthusiasm (@ProManimalUnity) November 5, 2024

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

---

Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.

---

Indeed. Look at how many supporters were disguised as empty seats at recent Trump rallies and how many people there left early. That didn't happen in the past.

---

Probably afraid of getting shot.

I wouldn't go to a rally for any candidate in this political climate.

Polling has underestimated Democrats ever since women's rights were taken away by the Republicans. Expect the same today.

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

---

Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.

---

You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.

Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.

I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.

Poor Charlie Kirk. When he says "turnout is mixed and not where we want it to be" he means Roevember is here.
https://www.threads.net/@amy_siskind/post/DB__CyTxF2q?xmt=AQGz8aD9_tS544a0yxMK6irV37iWTRvq0E_iJHIcr1lsRw

dajo9 said:

---

Polling has underestimated Democrats ever since women's rights were taken away by the Republicans. Expect the same today.

---

Polling has in fact underestimated Dem turnout since Dobbs. That is one national election (2022) as well as other state elections/results that were surprising. It explains why abortion has been the biggest campaign issue for Kamala.

I don't know that this will drive results in swing states. But it might.

I wouldn't take this for anything better than "reading the tea leaves," but for a bunch of reasons I kind of expect Kamala Harris to overperform the polls (and since the polls are tied, that would mean she wins). Is this maybe me wishcasting the result I'd like to see? Yes, maybe! But here's my case:

1. A lot of the national polls and swing-state polls seem to be actively "herding" to get a result very close to 50/50 (or at least close to the 2020 result). Nate Silver himself has been complaining about this, and it makes it hard to get a real read on where the race might be moving in the late stages. However, the polls that do not seem to be herding (because they are in states not thought to be competitive) are pointing towards Harris overperforming in the midwest: down 5 in Kansas, down 3 in Ohio, and of course the Ann Selzer poll that showed her AHEAD by 3 in Iowa. If Trump can't flip at least one midwestern state from Biden he can't win, and if he's lost ground in states he won that bodes poorly for him.

2. Pew research has been showing superior enthusiasm for Dems since Kamala entered the race, and that seems confirmed by the optics: Harris is drawing bigger crowds than Trump at her rallies. Campaign operatives say the Harris canvassing/turnout operation has been more robust, while Trump outsourced his to Elon Musk and has drawn a lot of criticism for that.

3. Democrats have been overperforming since the midterms, including special elections and primaries, and polls keep showing the down-ballot (House/Senate/Gov) candidates running ahead of the Presidential ticket. In 2016 this showed weakness for Hillary Clinton; it's the opposite now. I suspect there is less reason for a firm to "herd" a poll for a down-ballot race.

4. Contrary to what some Twitter MAGAs have been claiming, early vote has actually looked fairly good for Democrats in most swing states (as long as you aren't comparing to the unusual 2020 COVID year). It's showing a higher percentage of women voters returning ballots.

5. Maybe this is subjective, but how many people honestly think the Trump campaign has been closing well in this final week? The media coverage has been focused on the offensive comments from his MSG rally and the fallout from that, and Trump wants to keep talking about it (dressing up as a garbage man) rather than pivoting to the economy. Democratic operatives claim their data shows them winning late-deciders by decent margins. Again, this looks like the opposite of 2016, when the big story at the end was James Comey.

So that's my take. I think Kamala gets a bigger-than-expected win. You can come back and make fun of me if I'm wrong. I'll own it.

sycasey said:

---

I wouldn't take this for anything better than "reading the tea leaves," but for a bunch of reasons I kind of expect Kamala Harris to overperform the polls (and since the polls are tied, that would mean she wins). Is this maybe me wishcasting the result I'd like to see? Yes, maybe! But here's my case:

1. A lot of the national polls and swing-state polls seem to be actively "herding" to get a result very close to 50/50 (or at least close to the 2020 result). Nate Silver himself has been complaining about this, and it makes it hard to get a real read on where the race might be moving in the late stages. However, the polls that do not seem to be herding (because they are in states not thought to be competitive) are pointing towards Harris overperforming in the midwest: down 5 in Kansas, down 3 in Ohio, and of course the Ann Selzer poll that showed her AHEAD by 3 in Iowa. If Trump can't flip at least one midwestern state from Biden he can't win, and if he's lost ground in states he won that bodes poorly for him.

2. Pew research has been showing superior enthusiasm for Dems since Kamala entered the race, and that seems confirmed by the optics: Harris is drawing bigger crowds than Trump at her rallies. Campaign operatives say the Harris canvassing/turnout operation has been more robust, while Trump outsourced his to Elon Musk and has drawn a lot of criticism for that.

3. Democrats have been overperforming since the midterms, including special elections and primaries, and polls keep showing the down-ballot (House/Senate/Gov) candidates running ahead of the Presidential ticket. In 2016 this showed weakness for Hillary Clinton; it's the opposite now. I suspect there is less reason for a firm to "herd" a poll for a down-ballot race.

4. Contrary to what some Twitter MAGAs have been claiming, early vote has actually looked fairly good for Democrats in most swing states (as long as you aren't comparing to the unusual 2020 COVID year). It's showing a higher percentage of women voters returning ballots.

5. Maybe this is subjective, but how many people honestly think the Trump campaign has been closing well in this final week? The media coverage has been focused on the offensive comments from his MSG rally and the fallout from that, and Trump wants to keep talking about it (dressing up as a garbage man) rather than pivoting to the economy. Democratic operatives claim their data shows them winning late-deciders by decent margins. Again, this looks like the opposite of 2016, when the big story at the end was James Comey.

So that's my take. I think Kamala gets a bigger-than-expected win. You can come back and make fun of me if I'm wrong. I'll own it.

---

If Kamala wins by 2-3 points nationally that isn't enough. I expect she will win the popular vote.

Clinton won the popular vote 48.5 to 46.4 and still lost the election.

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

---

Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.

---

You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.

Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.

I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.

---

At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.

---

Which information bubble is Charlie Kirk looking at?

Every time Eminem speaks, I feel like he's rapping 😄 pic.twitter.com/R2uUDH0CgT

— French Fuse (@FrenchFuse) November 4, 2024

dimitrig said:

---

sycasey said:

---

I wouldn't take this for anything better than "reading the tea leaves," but for a bunch of reasons I kind of expect Kamala Harris to overperform the polls (and since the polls are tied, that would mean she wins). Is this maybe me wishcasting the result I'd like to see? Yes, maybe! But here's my case:

1. A lot of the national polls and swing-state polls seem to be actively "herding" to get a result very close to 50/50 (or at least close to the 2020 result). Nate Silver himself has been complaining about this, and it makes it hard to get a real read on where the race might be moving in the late stages. However, the polls that do not seem to be herding (because they are in states not thought to be competitive) are pointing towards Harris overperforming in the midwest: down 5 in Kansas, down 3 in Ohio, and of course the Ann Selzer poll that showed her AHEAD by 3 in Iowa. If Trump can't flip at least one midwestern state from Biden he can't win, and if he's lost ground in states he won that bodes poorly for him.

2. Pew research has been showing superior enthusiasm for Dems since Kamala entered the race, and that seems confirmed by the optics: Harris is drawing bigger crowds than Trump at her rallies. Campaign operatives say the Harris canvassing/turnout operation has been more robust, while Trump outsourced his to Elon Musk and has drawn a lot of criticism for that.

3. Democrats have been overperforming since the midterms, including special elections and primaries, and polls keep showing the down-ballot (House/Senate/Gov) candidates running ahead of the Presidential ticket. In 2016 this showed weakness for Hillary Clinton; it's the opposite now. I suspect there is less reason for a firm to "herd" a poll for a down-ballot race.

4. Contrary to what some Twitter MAGAs have been claiming, early vote has actually looked fairly good for Democrats in most swing states (as long as you aren't comparing to the unusual 2020 COVID year). It's showing a higher percentage of women voters returning ballots.

5. Maybe this is subjective, but how many people honestly think the Trump campaign has been closing well in this final week? The media coverage has been focused on the offensive comments from his MSG rally and the fallout from that, and Trump wants to keep talking about it (dressing up as a garbage man) rather than pivoting to the economy. Democratic operatives claim their data shows them winning late-deciders by decent margins. Again, this looks like the opposite of 2016, when the big story at the end was James Comey.

So that's my take. I think Kamala gets a bigger-than-expected win. You can come back and make fun of me if I'm wrong. I'll own it.

---

If Kamala wins by 2-3 points nationally that isn't enough. I expect she will win the popular vote.

Clinton won the popular vote 48.5 to 46.4 and still lost the election.

---

Polls also show swing states tied. I think she beats those too.

Nancy Pelosi has announced that Hakeem Jeffries will be the next Speaker.

I mean. . . Nancy Pelosi doesn't mess around with vote counts. She's seen enough data to say that.

tequila4kapp said:

---

I am suspicious the news broke too soon for R's that they were overperforming with early voting. I expected D's would do something in response...I saw a report this morning (?) that D's quickly mobilized a massive door knock campaign. I think the report said they've hit something like 800K houses in PA in the last small number of days. If true that turn out the vote effort could overcome the R early vote. TBD

Whatever happens can we just have peace? No Antifa riots (ala 2016). No J6 riots. Whoever's side loses just suck it up buttercup and chill out with the rhetoric and violence.

---

I've been on calls with voters in PA for the last week, and doing some calling today. Optimistic for sure!

VOTE BLUE [from OT Moderator - solicitations are not allowed]]

tequila4kapp said:

---

I am suspicious the news broke too soon for R's that they were overperforming with early voting. I expected D's would do something in response...I saw a report this morning (?) that D's quickly mobilized a massive door knock campaign. I think the report said they've hit something like 800K houses in PA in the last small number of days. If true that turn out the vote effort could overcome the R early vote. TBD

Whatever happens can we just have peace? No Antifa riots (ala 2016). No J6 riots. Whoever's side loses just suck it up buttercup and chill out with the rhetoric and violence.

---

Here is me on October 29th talking about Harris' monster ground game. "unprecedented and remarkable".

Enjoy
https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/123801/replies/2409679

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

---

Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.

---

You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.

Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.

I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.

---

At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.

---

The voting in Philadelphia is staggering. Don't let media fool you. Enthusiasm is extremely high for Dems.

As for polls - they are skewed because right wing pollsters have released something like 93 polls since the end of August and it has skewed any kind of accurate aggregation of data. Herding is also a problem and it has almost come to be overlooked since everyone seems to think that this election is close. I don't think it will be. Early hours but, she is outperforming in most battleground states, including GA. Gender gap is +13 in PA, +12 in GA, +11 in NC.

philly1121 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

---

Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.

---

You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.

Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.

I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.

---

At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.

---

The voting in Philadelphia is staggering. Don't let media fool you. Enthusiasm is extremely high for Dems.

As for polls - they are skewed because right wing pollsters have released something like 93 polls since the end of August and it has skewed any kind of accurate aggregation of data. Herding is also a problem and it has almost come to be overlooked since everyone seems to think that this election is close. I don't think it will be. Early hours but, she is outperforming in most battleground states, including GA. Gender gap is +13 in PA, +12 in GA, +11 in NC.

---

Hell yes! Our ground and call game is working.

VOTE BLUE and donate to ACTBlue

philly1121 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.

It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?

There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.

---

Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.

---

You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.

Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.

I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.

---

At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.

---

The voting in Philadelphia is staggering. Don't let media fool you. Enthusiasm is extremely high for Dems.

As for polls - they are skewed because right wing pollsters have released something like 93 polls since the end of August and it has skewed any kind of accurate aggregation of data. Herding is also a problem and it has almost come to be overlooked since everyone seems to think that this election is close. I don't think it will be. Early hours but, she is outperforming in most battleground states, including GA. Gender gap is +13 in PA, +12 in GA, +11 in NC.

---

He needs to STFU and not tell them how many votes they need to “find”

— . (@mdegraide) November 5, 2024

tequila4kapp said:

---

I saw a report this morning (?) that D's quickly mobilized a massive door knock campaign.

---

"Quickly" in that it started mobilizing pretty much as soon as Kamala took over. It hasn't been a secret.

Poor 2034, you're going through some things right now.

Look at vote by mail and election day voting.

Dems VBM is 1,044,697 with an 86.9% return rate
Reps: 622,861 with an 86.9% return
IND: 225,056 79.7% return

So we're looking at a 55.1% for Dems / 32.9% for Reps and 11.9 for Indies

That's a 421K difference. So about an hour ago, the ED voting in Philly was at 660k. In 2020, it was 760k. And there's still a few hours to vote. So if you factor in that some indies will go for Harris, we're looking at a a firewall of about 440-550k votes. Now, I don't know how you're going to get that many votes in the rural areas. I suppose its possible. But Trump would have to overperform massively.

philly1121 said:

---

Poor 2034, you're going through some things right now.

Look at vote by mail and election day voting.

Dems VBM is 1,044,697 with an 86.9% return rate
Reps: 622,861 with an 86.9% return
IND: 225,056 79.7% return

So we're looking at a 55.1% for Dems / 32.9% for Reps and 11.9 for Indies

That's a 421K difference. So about an hour ago, the ED voting in Philly was at 660k. In 2020, it was 760k. And there's still a few hours to vote. So if you factor in that some indies will go for Harris, we're looking at a a firewall of about 440-550k votes. Now, I don't know how you're going to get that many votes in the rural areas. I suppose its possible. But Trump would have to overperform massively.

---

Trump will. He always does. Hopefully he falls just short again.

There will be indies voting for Jill Stein and Joe Biden as well.

philly1121 said:

---

I don't know how you're going to get that many votes in the rural areas. I suppose its possible. But Trump would have to overperform massively.

---

NEW: CNN says they’re running into a lot of silent Trump voters in Virginia who are afraid to be interviewed.

Virginia Trump supporters are refusing interviews in fear of their Democrat friends finding out.

“There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or… pic.twitter.com/OktNZTRJ4y

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 5, 2024

The silent majority tend to vote Republican.

bear2034 said:

---

philly1121 said:

---

I don't know how you're going to get that many votes in the rural areas. I suppose its possible. But Trump would have to overperform massively.

---

NEW: CNN says they’re running into a lot of silent Trump voters in Virginia who are afraid to be interviewed.

Virginia Trump supporters are refusing interviews in fear of their Democrat friends finding out.

“There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or… pic.twitter.com/OktNZTRJ4y

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 5, 2024

The silent majority tend to vote Republican.

---

That's because they know what they are doing is wrong like grave robbers under the cover of darkness.