I voted yesterday in California.
Very quick. Very smooth.
Didn't need to show my ID.
Only provided my name and address.
BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
happy election day pic.twitter.com/7gBpVrdsTB
— no context curb your enthusiasm (@ProManimalUnity) November 5, 2024
Californians!
— BKactual (@BravoKiloActual) November 5, 2024
Make sure you vote YES on prop 36. This will reverse Kamala Harris’s disastrous prop 47 (which she labeled the “safe neighborhoods and schools act 🥴) and directly let to mass stealing, looting, and thievery. pic.twitter.com/9Oensd7F7G
Indeed. Look at how many supporters were disguised as empty seats at recent Trump rallies and how many people there left early. That didn't happen in the past.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Eastern Oregon Bear said:Indeed. Look at how many supporters were disguised as empty seats at recent Trump rallies and how many people there left early. That didn't happen in the past.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
dimitrig said:
I think a lot of people just won't vote for a woman.
I also voted for my daughter’s rights.
— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) November 5, 2024
I voted for her right to free speech.
I voted for her right to practice her religion.
I voted for her right to peacefully assemble and protest a tyrannical government, regardless of her political leanings.
I voted for her right to bodily…
You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Polling has in fact underestimated Dem turnout since Dobbs. That is one national election (2022) as well as other state elections/results that were surprising. It explains why abortion has been the biggest campaign issue for Kamala.dajo9 said:
Polling has underestimated Democrats ever since women's rights were taken away by the Republicans. Expect the same today.
BearGoggles said:You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.
I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.
sycasey said:
I wouldn't take this for anything better than "reading the tea leaves," but for a bunch of reasons I kind of expect Kamala Harris to overperform the polls (and since the polls are tied, that would mean she wins). Is this maybe me wishcasting the result I'd like to see? Yes, maybe! But here's my case:
1. A lot of the national polls and swing-state polls seem to be actively "herding" to get a result very close to 50/50 (or at least close to the 2020 result). Nate Silver himself has been complaining about this, and it makes it hard to get a real read on where the race might be moving in the late stages. However, the polls that do not seem to be herding (because they are in states not thought to be competitive) are pointing towards Harris overperforming in the midwest: down 5 in Kansas, down 3 in Ohio, and of course the Ann Selzer poll that showed her AHEAD by 3 in Iowa. If Trump can't flip at least one midwestern state from Biden he can't win, and if he's lost ground in states he won that bodes poorly for him.
2. Pew research has been showing superior enthusiasm for Dems since Kamala entered the race, and that seems confirmed by the optics: Harris is drawing bigger crowds than Trump at her rallies. Campaign operatives say the Harris canvassing/turnout operation has been more robust, while Trump outsourced his to Elon Musk and has drawn a lot of criticism for that.
3. Democrats have been overperforming since the midterms, including special elections and primaries, and polls keep showing the down-ballot (House/Senate/Gov) candidates running ahead of the Presidential ticket. In 2016 this showed weakness for Hillary Clinton; it's the opposite now. I suspect there is less reason for a firm to "herd" a poll for a down-ballot race.
4. Contrary to what some Twitter MAGAs have been claiming, early vote has actually looked fairly good for Democrats in most swing states (as long as you aren't comparing to the unusual 2020 COVID year). It's showing a higher percentage of women voters returning ballots.
5. Maybe this is subjective, but how many people honestly think the Trump campaign has been closing well in this final week? The media coverage has been focused on the offensive comments from his MSG rally and the fallout from that, and Trump wants to keep talking about it (dressing up as a garbage man) rather than pivoting to the economy. Democratic operatives claim their data shows them winning late-deciders by decent margins. Again, this looks like the opposite of 2016, when the big story at the end was James Comey.
So that's my take. I think Kamala gets a bigger-than-expected win. You can come back and make fun of me if I'm wrong. I'll own it.
The truest thing you've said on OTCal88 said:BearGoggles said:You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.
I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.
At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.
Which information bubble is Charlie Kirk looking at?Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.
I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.
At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.
Every time Eminem speaks, I feel like he's rapping 😄 pic.twitter.com/R2uUDH0CgT
— French Fuse (@FrenchFuse) November 4, 2024
dimitrig said:sycasey said:
I wouldn't take this for anything better than "reading the tea leaves," but for a bunch of reasons I kind of expect Kamala Harris to overperform the polls (and since the polls are tied, that would mean she wins). Is this maybe me wishcasting the result I'd like to see? Yes, maybe! But here's my case:
1. A lot of the national polls and swing-state polls seem to be actively "herding" to get a result very close to 50/50 (or at least close to the 2020 result). Nate Silver himself has been complaining about this, and it makes it hard to get a real read on where the race might be moving in the late stages. However, the polls that do not seem to be herding (because they are in states not thought to be competitive) are pointing towards Harris overperforming in the midwest: down 5 in Kansas, down 3 in Ohio, and of course the Ann Selzer poll that showed her AHEAD by 3 in Iowa. If Trump can't flip at least one midwestern state from Biden he can't win, and if he's lost ground in states he won that bodes poorly for him.
2. Pew research has been showing superior enthusiasm for Dems since Kamala entered the race, and that seems confirmed by the optics: Harris is drawing bigger crowds than Trump at her rallies. Campaign operatives say the Harris canvassing/turnout operation has been more robust, while Trump outsourced his to Elon Musk and has drawn a lot of criticism for that.
3. Democrats have been overperforming since the midterms, including special elections and primaries, and polls keep showing the down-ballot (House/Senate/Gov) candidates running ahead of the Presidential ticket. In 2016 this showed weakness for Hillary Clinton; it's the opposite now. I suspect there is less reason for a firm to "herd" a poll for a down-ballot race.
4. Contrary to what some Twitter MAGAs have been claiming, early vote has actually looked fairly good for Democrats in most swing states (as long as you aren't comparing to the unusual 2020 COVID year). It's showing a higher percentage of women voters returning ballots.
5. Maybe this is subjective, but how many people honestly think the Trump campaign has been closing well in this final week? The media coverage has been focused on the offensive comments from his MSG rally and the fallout from that, and Trump wants to keep talking about it (dressing up as a garbage man) rather than pivoting to the economy. Democratic operatives claim their data shows them winning late-deciders by decent margins. Again, this looks like the opposite of 2016, when the big story at the end was James Comey.
So that's my take. I think Kamala gets a bigger-than-expected win. You can come back and make fun of me if I'm wrong. I'll own it.
If Kamala wins by 2-3 points nationally that isn't enough. I expect she will win the popular vote.
Clinton won the popular vote 48.5 to 46.4 and still lost the election.
I've been on calls with voters in PA for the last week, and doing some calling today. Optimistic for sure!tequila4kapp said:
I am suspicious the news broke too soon for R's that they were overperforming with early voting. I expected D's would do something in response...I saw a report this morning (?) that D's quickly mobilized a massive door knock campaign. I think the report said they've hit something like 800K houses in PA in the last small number of days. If true that turn out the vote effort could overcome the R early vote. TBD
Whatever happens can we just have peace? No Antifa riots (ala 2016). No J6 riots. Whoever's side loses just suck it up buttercup and chill out with the rhetoric and violence.
tequila4kapp said:
I am suspicious the news broke too soon for R's that they were overperforming with early voting. I expected D's would do something in response...I saw a report this morning (?) that D's quickly mobilized a massive door knock campaign. I think the report said they've hit something like 800K houses in PA in the last small number of days. If true that turn out the vote effort could overcome the R early vote. TBD
Whatever happens can we just have peace? No Antifa riots (ala 2016). No J6 riots. Whoever's side loses just suck it up buttercup and chill out with the rhetoric and violence.
The voting in Philadelphia is staggering. Don't let media fool you. Enthusiasm is extremely high for Dems.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.
I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.
At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.
Hell yes! Our ground and call game is working.philly1121 said:The voting in Philadelphia is staggering. Don't let media fool you. Enthusiasm is extremely high for Dems.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.
I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.
At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.
As for polls - they are skewed because right wing pollsters have released something like 93 polls since the end of August and it has skewed any kind of accurate aggregation of data. Herding is also a problem and it has almost come to be overlooked since everyone seems to think that this election is close. I don't think it will be. Early hours but, she is outperforming in most battleground states, including GA. Gender gap is +13 in PA, +12 in GA, +11 in NC.
philly1121 said:The voting in Philadelphia is staggering. Don't let media fool you. Enthusiasm is extremely high for Dems.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:You are wrongly conflating "base enthusiasm" with sentiment among independents. Those are very different things, each independently important but distinct.Cal88 said:BearGoggles said:
The biggest mystery to me is how do the polls work? It seems like Trump has consistently under polled (by a significant margin) and if that's still the case, then this is a Trump landslide. However, the polls were far too favorable to republicans on 2022 in the opposite way.
It comes down to turnout models and prior oversampling of dems in the polls. Given that the republicans have finally embraced early voting, I don't think there's any real way to know if/how that will change election day turnout. Did they cannibalize their own vote?
There are anecdotal reports (in part substantiated by early vote metrics) that the dem turnout has been very poor in key areas (e.g., Philadelphia). If that's the case, then again its a Trump landslide.
Not sure there is as much enthusiasm for Trump either. I think a lot of independents have little regard for both candidates at this point.
Independents are very unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about either candidate.
I saw one report last night indicating that Trump was doing better with independents then in prior elections. "Better" arguably means "less bad." TBD.
At this point reports are all over the place, it almost depends on which information bubble you are looking at.
As for polls - they are skewed because right wing pollsters have released something like 93 polls since the end of August and it has skewed any kind of accurate aggregation of data. Herding is also a problem and it has almost come to be overlooked since everyone seems to think that this election is close. I don't think it will be. Early hours but, she is outperforming in most battleground states, including GA. Gender gap is +13 in PA, +12 in GA, +11 in NC.
He needs to STFU and not tell them how many votes they need to “find”
— . (@mdegraide) November 5, 2024
"Quickly" in that it started mobilizing pretty much as soon as Kamala took over. It hasn't been a secret.tequila4kapp said:
I saw a report this morning (?) that D's quickly mobilized a massive door knock campaign.
Lol... HarrisX drops polls and it is a Trump win thanks to Wisconsin. pic.twitter.com/M06v1D9vqJ
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
philly1121 said:
Poor 2034, you're going through some things right now.
Look at vote by mail and election day voting.
Dems VBM is 1,044,697 with an 86.9% return rate
Reps: 622,861 with an 86.9% return
IND: 225,056 79.7% return
So we're looking at a 55.1% for Dems / 32.9% for Reps and 11.9 for Indies
That's a 421K difference. So about an hour ago, the ED voting in Philly was at 660k. In 2020, it was 760k. And there's still a few hours to vote. So if you factor in that some indies will go for Harris, we're looking at a a firewall of about 440-550k votes. Now, I don't know how you're going to get that many votes in the rural areas. I suppose its possible. But Trump would have to overperform massively.
philly1121 said:
I don't know how you're going to get that many votes in the rural areas. I suppose its possible. But Trump would have to overperform massively.
NEW: CNN says they’re running into a lot of silent Trump voters in Virginia who are afraid to be interviewed.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 5, 2024
Virginia Trump supporters are refusing interviews in fear of their Democrat friends finding out.
“There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or… pic.twitter.com/OktNZTRJ4y
bear2034 said:philly1121 said:
I don't know how you're going to get that many votes in the rural areas. I suppose its possible. But Trump would have to overperform massively.NEW: CNN says they’re running into a lot of silent Trump voters in Virginia who are afraid to be interviewed.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 5, 2024
Virginia Trump supporters are refusing interviews in fear of their Democrat friends finding out.
“There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or… pic.twitter.com/OktNZTRJ4y
The silent majority tend to vote Republican.