OK. I am going to throw this out and I am hoping we can keep things semi-civil.
There was a good interview with Richard Haas the other day where he talked about what some in the Trump orbit are trying to do is move away from the post-WW2 rules based system. For those that studied IR it wasn't a full blown overturn of sovereignty but clearly erosion at the edges with the idea that these rules and institutions fostered greater cooperation. From NATO to the World Bank to the IMF to the WTO (and in Europe the EU) that idea was that by removing friction and continuing to pursue common interests (and market integration) one could avoid a great power war.
Clearly this era is coming to an end. What Haas suggested is that we are entering an era in which the mighty do what they will and the weak do what they must. Very 19th century European power politics.
But what next? What would this great decoupling look like? What would this sort of fluid and transactional alliance system look like? And maybe more mundane - is anyone really writing about this on the Maga side? Or is this simply a Trumpian spasm and that the next administration will begin the long recovery? But what does _THAT_ mean with the US signaling that it is not necessarily a reliable actor?
SOme of the language above may be seen a critical of Trump. It isn't meant to be. I use "reliable" very much in non pragoritive way - I mean what else would we call the status of article 5 in the NATO treaty after this week? I know if advising the Baltic states I can't imagine concluding anything else that it is less likely today than 5 weeks ago that the US would stand by its commitments.
There was a good interview with Richard Haas the other day where he talked about what some in the Trump orbit are trying to do is move away from the post-WW2 rules based system. For those that studied IR it wasn't a full blown overturn of sovereignty but clearly erosion at the edges with the idea that these rules and institutions fostered greater cooperation. From NATO to the World Bank to the IMF to the WTO (and in Europe the EU) that idea was that by removing friction and continuing to pursue common interests (and market integration) one could avoid a great power war.
Clearly this era is coming to an end. What Haas suggested is that we are entering an era in which the mighty do what they will and the weak do what they must. Very 19th century European power politics.
But what next? What would this great decoupling look like? What would this sort of fluid and transactional alliance system look like? And maybe more mundane - is anyone really writing about this on the Maga side? Or is this simply a Trumpian spasm and that the next administration will begin the long recovery? But what does _THAT_ mean with the US signaling that it is not necessarily a reliable actor?
SOme of the language above may be seen a critical of Trump. It isn't meant to be. I use "reliable" very much in non pragoritive way - I mean what else would we call the status of article 5 in the NATO treaty after this week? I know if advising the Baltic states I can't imagine concluding anything else that it is less likely today than 5 weeks ago that the US would stand by its commitments.