concordtom said:
From my Ukrainian friend: Yeah. Very bad. Basically any bigger country w nukes can do whatever they want to a smaller country.
That is the thing that MAGA fiends are ignoring. Other countries have foreign affairs. Most of these are going to look to acquire their own deterrents. As they move toward that it will be really really messy.
Consider.
I am making foreign policy in Finland. I look at what I see and say "Well, Russia attacked us once before because they worried about our proximity to St. Petersburg. Pretty clear that the current administration would love to kill Nato and end its article 5 obligations and likely would push come to shove. We need our own deterrents."
Now Russian isn't going to like that. Isn't going to like that at ALL....up to (see Isreal) either outright bombing or using low level conflict to set back our counterfactual Finnish nuke program.
And then, after all said and done unless they invest in SLBMs we have a nuclear armed state that lacks first strike survivability. WHich means they need to be seen as credibly having their forces on high alert so they are not destroyed. We know (Scary) from Cold War archives just how close we got on multiple occasions of armageddon because of goose flocks or computer glitches.
This is the brilliance of NATO. It keps countries that are poorly suited to be nuclear states (not because they are BAD people but because of geography, size of economy, ect) under a nuclear umbrella of a country with a nuclear triad. That served AMERICAN interests....at an extinction level.
But I get it. I am an old fart. I remember what it was like in the 1970s and 1980s to live in that world.