The Energy Problem

1,858 Views | 54 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Eastern Oregon Bear
Cal88
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concordtom said:



I couldn't find the clip in Inconvenient Truth where Gore predicted dozens or hundreds of millions of ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES from Bangladesh - a nation with the population all living at like 4' elevation.



None of these wild predictions panned out! Complete BS. Globalist agencies have been talking about hundreds of millions of "climate refugees" since the 1990s.

In reality, the earth has been greening, a region the size of France and Germany of the Sahara Desert has turned into green savannah.

https://adaptation.climate.columbia.edu/content/re-greening-sahel

And the ultimate irony here, is that one of the main factor for this greening is the increase in CO2 levels... The greening is more pronounced in arid areas because more CO2 in the atmosphere reduces the plants' loss of water in their photosynthesis process. With higher concentrations of CO2, plants need fewer stomata or pore-like openings through which they capture CO2 for photosynthesis.

Note as well that the world is AWASH with agricultural products. We have already reached peak farmland, meaning that no more land is needed to feed the world, with yields growing.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20250909-the-rewilding-milestone-earth-has-already-passed

You're going to see this in the US, as large swaths of soy and corn farmland are going to be abandoned, with global supply now exceeding global demand, and the US being one of the higher-cost producers.
smh
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concordtom said:

> Eventually, ugliness will reach everywhere.

agree, and imo much sooner than folks suspect
# eat dessert first, seriously
concordtom
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concordtom
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Are sea levels rising?
Are global temperatures rising?

I'll take each answer separately.
Cal88
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concordtom said:

Are sea levels rising?


Sea levels have been rising today at the same rate as they have the last 100+ years, this is the easiest point to prove in the debate about climate change, due to the extensive tidal gages records from around the world, data accumulated since the 19th century.






Quote:

Are temperatures rising?


Temperatures are rising, though not as much as reported, and the variations are well within historical norms.



concordtom
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So you are good with the continuation of burning fossil fuels?
Cal88
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concordtom said:

So you are good with the continuation of burning fossil fuels?


Yes, the economic damage from restricting access to energy far outstrips any damage from increased CO2. As well, countries like China, India have been making strides in fields like thorium nuclear energy, cheaper solar, even fusion, so the consumption of fossil fuels will taper off due to technological progress. We need to get on that bandwagon.

Peak oil demand is slated for the 2030s. Oil demand is already down in Europe and plateauing in China.

AI Overview
Yes, China's oil demand, especially for traditional fuels like gasoline and diesel, has shown signs of decline or plateauing,
primarily due to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and a shift in the economy from manufacturing to services. While overall oil demand may still be increasing due to petrochemical demand, the era of rapid growth in oil-based fuel consumption is ending, with forecasts indicating a potential peak in China's oil demand by 2030.

smh
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i can't even spell Aye Eye, but thing one stands out in our (kids) future..
/* lets call the whole thing OFF */ signed, sterile by choice
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Cal88 said:

concordtom said:

Are sea levels rising?


Sea levels have been rising today at the same rate as they have the last 100+ years, this is the easiest point to prove in the debate about climate change, due to the extensive tidal gages records from around the world, data accumulated since the 19th century.






As I've pointed out several times before when you've posted these charts, if you limit the data to 1990 or 2000 until now, the trend line would start below the ones in your charts and end up above them. So, the rate of sea level rise is indeed increasing in the last 25 to 35 years.
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

Cal88 said:

concordtom said:

Are sea levels rising?


Sea levels have been rising today at the same rate as they have the last 100+ years, this is the easiest point to prove in the debate about climate change, due to the extensive tidal gages records from around the world, data accumulated since the 19th century.







As I've pointed out several times before when you've posted these charts, if you limit the data to 1990 or 2000 until now, the trend line would start below the ones in your charts and end up above them. So, the rate of sea level rise is indeed increasing in the last 25 to 35 years.


It's barely noticeable. The data is a bit noisy, showing a fair amount of random error in individual measurements, however the long-term trend shows that there is not much systematic error, the data fits pretty tightly in a linear pattern. Due to the amount of noise, you would need to go back at least 50-60 years to perform data analysis on such a sample, trying to extrapolate from a short time span will lead to unfounded conclusions. If you took for example the 35 year period starting 1970 you might have speculated that sea levels were dropping or not rising at all, while the longer term data layout shows a very clear steady rise with a high linear fit.
concordtom
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Decades from now, this clip will be infamous.






The opposite of this:




Cal88
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concordtom
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That's a demand side chart.
My whole interest has been on the Supply side.

Well, no. Price is a function of both supply and demand.
I meant, the boom in AI is a demand issue.

It's mad that at a time we need cheap supply we restrict PV and Storage tech from China.
Cal88
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Rolling brownouts will force policy changes there.
concordtom
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Doubtful
Trump won't end his xenophobic tariffs. He will blame democrat politicians for any brownouts that occur.
He always just blames everyone else, never does anything good.
Cal88
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concordtom
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Cal88 said:




Okay, those are shocking figures!

I wanna see backup, explore this in greater detail.
Cal88
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concordtom said:

Cal88 said:




Okay, those are shocking figures!

I wanna see backup, explore this in greater detail.


This is going to require more energy usage.
concordtom
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Cal88 said:

concordtom said:

Cal88 said:




Okay, those are shocking figures!

I wanna see backup, explore this in greater detail.


This is going to require more energy usage.


I already burned it, and it's still way higher than I'd have imagined (~1%).
Quote:



No those numbers ("33% in Oregon" and "37% in Virginia") look much too high compared to what credible sources say. I dug up recent data; here's what it actually shows, and where the likely confusion may be coming from:



What the reliable data says
In Virginia, data centers consumed about 25.6% of the state's total electricity in 2023.
In Oregon, data centers account for around 11% of the state's total electricity consumption.



Why the inflated figures (3337%) might be circulating

There are a few ways these higherpercent figures could have arisen as misunderstandings or misquotations:
1. Misreading projection vs current numbers
Some sources estimate that data center power demand could double/triple by 2030 in states like Oregon. If someone treated a projection as current, that could lead to too high a figure.
2. Confusion between parts of states or utilities vs whole state
For example, "Virginia data centers make up ~21% of Dominion Energy's load" refers to its specific utility service area, not the wholestate electricity demand. If that gets misinterpreted as "all of Virginia," numbers can get inflated.
3. Including future growth, planned buildouts, or extremes
Some articles mention what demand would be if all planned data center projects are built out. That tends to be higher than the current share.



If you want, I can trace exactly where those "33% / 37%" claims came from to see what misinterpretation or source led to them. Do you want me to do that?
Eastern Oregon Bear
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I can't vouch for the electrical usage figures, but companies like Amazon and Google are building data centers in rural towns all over eastern Oregon and Washington that are desperate for jobs. Cheap land and electric rates are attractive. I can think of at least a half dozen data centers off the top of my head. I imagine there are more in other parts of the state.

I just heard a news story of one operated by an Amazon affiliate that was being fined for violation of safety and waste handling laws.
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