Jerome Powell: The Fed is concerned about the very, very low level of job creation. Over the past 6 months, if you adjust for overcounting, there is effectively zero net job creation in the private sector. pic.twitter.com/IfUQnNMalX

— FactPost (@factpostnews) March 18, 2026

dajo9 said:

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They're all anti-QE until the market punches them in the mouth

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DiabloWags said:

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This is absurd.
No one has voted to raise interest rates Clown.

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dajo9 said:

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Trump probably thinks the Fed controls all the interest rates. He is a dumb guy.

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DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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Trump probably thinks the Fed controls all the interest rates. He is a dumb guy.

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Trump is without question, the DUMBEST president in my lifetime. It's not even close.

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• First, Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to the PCE target, which is what the market was looking for after some confusing comments about the new inflation task force back at the July presser. Today Warsh explicitly referred to 2% PCE as a "firm, fixed target."
• Today, Warsh also cited a "signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank." That sounds pretty hawkish but it also sharpens the question of why then, did the Fed choose not to hike rates at the last meeting? It seems like there's a missing "hike" factor here that goes beyond simply "inflation is above 2." Obviously the Fed cares about the labor market too, but the jobless rate is at 4.1%. Warsh's explanation was that a majority of the Committee in July preferred to "await new information in the inter meeting period." But of course, new information is always on the way.
• Maybe that missing factor is not just the absolute level of inflation but the speed at which it's trending. Warsh gave some hint of that today. At the conclusion of his Jackson Hole speech, he said: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed." The lingering problem for markets is that "sufficient speed" is a rather subjective term. I'm not sure we learned much about Warsh's reaction function, if the big takeaway from all of this is "inflation must not only be moving in a certain direction for us to hike, but it also must be moving at a certain speed."
• The most hawkish line in the speech, in my view, was the reference to current accommodative financial conditions. Specifically, Warsh said: "I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive" currently. This is notable because Warsh could easily have attempted to wave away looser financial conditions by talking about AI pushing up r*, or the neutral rate of interest. But he didn't.
• Perhaps the most interesting thing in Warsh's speech today was his discussion of tokens and AI:

Quote:

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We don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost? We will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs.

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