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Trump's Pick to be FED CHAIRMAN: KEVIN WARSH

5,373 Views | 80 Replies | Last: 17 days ago by DiabloWags
ChudBear
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:13a, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
TRUMP IS NOT GOING TO BE A HAPPY MAN TODAY.


A 25 point hike would actually be beneficial for Trump long term even though he may say the opposite politically, as long as Warsh says the Fed does not expect a long series of hikes and will wait for more data.

  • Oil continues falling from its recent highs, reducing gasoline, transportation and goods-price pressure. Brent was already down more than 3% today.
  • Inflation expectations ease enough that the 10-year Treasury yield falls further below 5%, even though the Fed just raised its overnight rate.
  • Mortgage rates and other longer term borrowing costs consequently stabilize or decline.
  • Economic growth remains solid, the latest August retail-sales data were quite strong, without inflation accelerating further.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to ChudBear • 10:16a, 9/16/26
If you look at the history of the Federal Reserve, it doesn't usually hike rates ONCE.
I believe they've only been "one and done" ONCE.

At this point and time, hiking the Fed Funds rate is an admission that they are behind the curve.

Given where the 10-year yield currently is, the market is anticipating much more aggressive action from the Fed than merely hiking a quarter of a point, once and then standing pat. The 2-year yield is also quite telling.

In fact, the CME Fed Funds Rate Probabilities are 90.7% for today's meeting along with a 40.2% probability of an additional quarter point increase on Oct. 28th and a 26.0% increase on Dec. 31st.

As a reminder, our current inflation rate is 3.4%
That is well above the Fed's 2% target.

If anything, a "hawkish" tone from Warsh would help lower long-term rates.

FedWatch - CME Group


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DiabloWags
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11:07a, 9/16/26
Federal Reserve hikes Fed Funds rate by 0.25%.
First hike in 3 years.

Vote was unanimous.
12 - 0.

The "hawkish" Kevin Warsh is in charge.
Not the White House.

Fed raises rates for first time in 3 years, voting against Trump's wishes




Press Conference begins at 2:30 PM

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DiabloWags
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11:46a, 9/16/26
Warsh said that he and his colleagues were hard pressed to describe current conditions as "restrictive".

We removed a "dose of accommodation" he said.

"Today we took a step in the direction of maintaining price stability"

CNBC's Steve Liesman asks "What is your neutral rate?"

Warsh replied that he felt the neutral rate was more of an "academic" exercise.






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ChudBear
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12:01p, 9/16/26
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to ChudBear • 12:09p, 9/16/26
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV

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ChudBear
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In reply to DiabloWags • 1:16p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.
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dajo9
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In reply to ChudBear • 1:38p, 9/16/26
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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BearlySane88
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In reply to dajo9 • 1:42p, 9/16/26
dajo9 said:
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)


I didn't move quickly from anything and neither did the poster you're replying to so maybe check what you're saying.

You just proved Chud's point by blaming it all on Trump. This isn't a partisan issue.
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dajo9
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 1:43p, 9/16/26
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)


I didn't move quickly from anything so maybe check what you're saying.

You just proved Chud's point by blaming it all on Trump. This isn't a partisan issue.


This inflation is absolutely on Trump and his stupid war.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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BearlySane88
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In reply to dajo9 • 1:50p, 9/16/26
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)


I didn't move quickly from anything so maybe check what you're saying.

You just proved Chud's point by blaming it all on Trump. This isn't a partisan issue.


This inflation absolutely on Trump and his stupid war.


Yes, it has an impact. Nobody is denying that. It is not the only factor and saying as much is foolish.
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dajo9
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 1:54p, 9/16/26
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)


I didn't move quickly from anything so maybe check what you're saying.

You just proved Chud's point by blaming it all on Trump. This isn't a partisan issue.


This inflation absolutely on Trump and his stupid war.


Yes, it has an impact. Nobody is denying that. It is not the only factor and saying as much is foolish.


Lol

All things economics are the result of a million different factors. But few economic things are as singlehandedly caused by a President as this inflation.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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BearlySane88
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In reply to dajo9 • 2:01p, 9/16/26
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)


I didn't move quickly from anything so maybe check what you're saying.

You just proved Chud's point by blaming it all on Trump. This isn't a partisan issue.


This inflation absolutely on Trump and his stupid war.


Yes, it has an impact. Nobody is denying that. It is not the only factor and saying as much is foolish.


Lol

All things economics are the result of a million different factors. But few economic things are as singlehandedly caused by a President as this inflation.


lol is right

It's clear you just want to bash on Trump and not be truthful to reality.
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dajo9
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 2:04p, 9/16/26
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)


I didn't move quickly from anything so maybe check what you're saying.

You just proved Chud's point by blaming it all on Trump. This isn't a partisan issue.


This inflation absolutely on Trump and his stupid war.


Yes, it has an impact. Nobody is denying that. It is not the only factor and saying as much is foolish.


Lol

All things economics are the result of a million different factors. But few economic things are as singlehandedly caused by a President as this inflation.


lol is right

It's clear you just want to bash on Trump and not be truthful to reality.


Enjoy the kool aid. We'll be here to pick up the pieces.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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BearlySane88
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In reply to dajo9 • 2:05p, 9/16/26
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
BearlySane88 said:
dajo9 said:
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Moving quickly from "Biden caused inflation" (false) to "these issues are much larger than any one president" (also false because Trump singlehandedly caused this inflation with his stupid, failed war of choice. The Fed can't fix what Trump has done - the market has already raised rates in response to what Trump has caused. The Fed has to follow along to slow the rise at the long end of the curve. The Fed is the tail, not the dog.)


I didn't move quickly from anything so maybe check what you're saying.

You just proved Chud's point by blaming it all on Trump. This isn't a partisan issue.


This inflation absolutely on Trump and his stupid war.


Yes, it has an impact. Nobody is denying that. It is not the only factor and saying as much is foolish.


Lol

All things economics are the result of a million different factors. But few economic things are as singlehandedly caused by a President as this inflation.


lol is right

It's clear you just want to bash on Trump and not be truthful to reality.


Enjoy the kool aid. We'll be here to pick up the pieces.


Please don't touch any of the pieces.
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DiabloWags
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2:46p, 9/16/26
The REALITY is that this massive surge in interest rates is solely the result of Donald Trump.
No one else.

It would be terribly foolish and naive to blame anyone else for what is going on in the Treasury Market.

Fed Raises Fed Fund Rate for the first time in 3 years.

2 Year Yield: 4.729%

5 Year Yield: 4.866%

10 Year Yield: 5.014%

30 Year Yield: 5.355%




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DiabloWags
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In reply to ChudBear • 2:50p, 9/16/26
ChudBear said:
It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


I disagree.
That's a terribly naive take.

People on this forum don't care about it largely because they don't have any financial capital or savings at risk.
That's why they have no interest.

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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 2:50p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
The REALITY is that this massive surge in interest rates is solely the result of Donald Trump.
No one else.

It would be terribly foolish and naive to blame anyone else for what is going on in the Treasury Market.

Fed Raises Fed Fund Rate for the first time in 3 years.

2 Year Yield: 4.729%

5 Year Yield: 4.866%

10 Year Yield: 5.014%

30 Year Yield: 5.355%






So it was solely on Biden when they raised it 3 years ago? No and you've been arguing that for years.

The evidence doesn't support attributing the increase solely to Trump.
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BearlySane88
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In reply to ChudBear • 2:51p, 9/16/26
ChudBear said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.
So I would tend to agree with you.

And it's nothing new here.

The dearth of replies to anything having to do with the markets or the economy speaks a lot about what the interests are of the participants in this forum. And when people have tried to respond with a post on the economy, the markets, or the Fed, I have found that they have done nothing more than post a Tweet from Twitter to speak for themselves and their political bias.

Mortgage rates are now at 7.2%
Perhaps no one here is looking to buy a home.

Perhaps this forum contains a younger crowd that doesn't have much in the way of capital or savings.
Thus they couldn't care any less about buying 6-month Treasury Bills and making 4.25% risk free.
That's certainly a possibility.

I enjoy participating in the financial markets.
I enjoy making money.

I also enjoy listening to the most POWERFUL MAN in the free world who determines the cost of money and price inflation.

The Fed Chairman.

YMMV


It extends beyond this forum. People don't care about this stuff, partly because they don't know anything about it and partly because its easy to always say "the economy sucks because X president." These issues are much larger than any one president is responsible for.


Great take. Anyone blaming this solely on Trump is willfully ignoring the past.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 2:56p, 9/16/26
BearlySane88 said:
DiabloWags said:
The REALITY is that this massive surge in interest rates is solely the result of Donald Trump.
No one else.

It would be terribly foolish and naive to blame anyone else for what is going on in the Treasury Market.

Fed Raises Fed Fund Rate for the first time in 3 years.

2 Year Yield: 4.729%

5 Year Yield: 4.866%

10 Year Yield: 5.014%

30 Year Yield: 5.355%






So it was solely on Biden when they raised it 3 years ago? No and you've been arguing that for years.

The evidence doesn't support attributing the increase solely to Trump.


This chart of the 30 year yield says that you would be wrong about that.

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DiabloWags
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3:06p, 9/16/26
The Dumbest President in my Lifetime in FULL MELTDOWN mode.
He still hasn't figured out what a trade "deficit" means.

Interest rates should be at 1% or less?

lol



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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:09p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
The Dumbest President in my Lifetime in FULL MELTDOWN mode.
He still hasn't figured out what a trade "deficit" means.

Interest rates should be at 1% or less?

lol





This is definitely not full melt down mode. We've seen him react way more to other decisions.
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:10p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
BearlySane88 said:
DiabloWags said:
The REALITY is that this massive surge in interest rates is solely the result of Donald Trump.
No one else.

It would be terribly foolish and naive to blame anyone else for what is going on in the Treasury Market.

Fed Raises Fed Fund Rate for the first time in 3 years.

2 Year Yield: 4.729%

5 Year Yield: 4.866%

10 Year Yield: 5.014%

30 Year Yield: 5.355%






So it was solely on Biden when they raised it 3 years ago? No and you've been arguing that for years.

The evidence doesn't support attributing the increase solely to Trump.


This chart of the 30 year yield says that you would be wrong about that.



I ask again because you conveniently avoided the question, was solely on Biden when they raised it 3 years ago?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 3:13p, 9/16/26
I have no idea how you KNEW what my thinking was 3 years ago when the Fed last raised rates.
That's because you didn't start posting here until the death of Charlie Kirk on Sept. 10, 2025


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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:15p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
I have no idea how you KNEW what my thinking was 3 years ago when the Fed last raised rates.
That's because you didn't start posting here until the death of Charlie Kirk on Sept. 10, 2025




I don't know that's why I asked the question that you keep ignoring. Not sure where you're seeing any assumptions on my part, there weren't any.

RIP Charlie
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 3:22p, 9/16/26
BearlySane88 said:

I ask again because you conveniently avoided the question, was solely on Biden when they raised it 3 years ago?


What other primary reason would be the catalyst for interest rates going to the moon since March?
Other than the attack on IRAN?

I'm all ears.


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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:26p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
BearlySane88 said:

I ask again because you conveniently avoided the question, was solely on Biden when they raised it 3 years ago?


What other primary reason would be the catalyst for interest rates going to the moon since March?
Other than the attack on IRAN?

I'm all ears.




You're still ignoring the question: was it all Biden's fault three years ago?

When you answer that, I'll continue to engage in this discussion.
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DiabloWags
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3:29p, 9/16/26
I'm not interested in the back and forth and "tit for tat".
I know what I've seen in the markets this year based on 46 years of financial market experience.

Because the result of that will be me getting suspended.
That's usually what has happened in the past with me as well with others who have engaged.

Enjoy your evening.





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Aunburdened
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:30p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.

People aren't interested in the markets. They are interested in the economy, just not discussing it with you.
Aun "unburdened by what has been" Bear is the OG legend
- DaddyLegend 9/6/2026
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DiabloWags
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In reply to Aunburdened • 3:34p, 9/16/26
Aunburdened said:
DiabloWags said:
ChudBear said:
The replies in this thread, or lack thereof, are pretty indicative of how the general population views and feels about this.

Most people don't know, don't care.


I have found that the OT forum in general, has very little interest in the financial markets or the economy.

People aren't interested in the markets. They are interested in the economy, just not discussing it with you.


I don't know if I have ever met anyone that thinks that the Treasury Market and monetary policy don't impact the economy.
You're the first.

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DiabloWags
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3:37p, 9/16/26
Of course, this surge in yields would never impact the economy.
Never.

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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:38p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
I'm not interested in the back and forth and "tit for tat".
I know what I've seen in the markets this year based on 46 years of financial market experience.

Because the result of that will be me getting suspended.
That's usually what has happened in the past with me as well with others who have engaged.

Enjoy your evening.






It's not tit for tat, it's a conversation that you're evading.

Got it, you're choosing to blame Trump entirely for the hike but not willing to do the same with Biden.

Your double standard is noted.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 3:41p, 9/16/26
dajo9 said:

Enjoy the kool aid. We'll be here to pick up the pieces.


The Kool Aid still runs STRONG.

But Kevin Warsh ain't drinking any of it.





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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 3:41p, 9/16/26
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:

Enjoy the kool aid. We'll be here to pick up the pieces.


The Kool Aid still runs STRONG.





What flavor are you serving? Does the Koolaid Man make an appearance? My walls aren't ready for that
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Aunburdened
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 3:43p, 9/16/26
BearlySane88 said:
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:
Enjoy the kool aid. We'll be here to pick up the pieces

The Kool Aid still runs STRONG.

What flavor are you serving? Does the Koolaid Man make an appearance? My walls aren't ready for that

How much NIL would it cost to get the Kool Aid man to play for Cal football? Our lines suck.
Aun "unburdened by what has been" Bear is the OG legend
- DaddyLegend 9/6/2026
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