Amuse: Xi Warned Trump About the Thucydides Trap. Trump Proved China Is the One Caught In It.
"The International Monetary Fund's April 2026 projections place US nominal GDP at $32.4 trillion against China's $20.65 trillion, a US lead of roughly $11.2 trillion. As recently as 2021, Chinese GDP had reached approximately 75% of US output. That ratio has now fallen back to roughly 65% and is widening in America's favor. The Wall Street Journal reported in December 2025 that China's share of global GDP peaked in 2021 and has been shrinking since....
"Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, the closest thing the demographic profession has to a magisterial authority on China, called the 2025 birth crash "a demographic shock of the sort typically associated with dire calamities like famine or plague." RAND Corporation projects that China will lose 250 million people by 2050, roughly three-quarters of the entire current US population....
"The most advanced AI chips on earth are now being manufactured in Arizona, a fact CEO Jensen Huang has publicly attributed to the Trump administration's manufacturing push. Apple alone has committed $600 billion to US manufacturing over four years, its largest such commitment in company history....
"The American intellectual class has spent a decade teaching Americans to accept a future that the data never supported. Hanson, in three sentences, ended the spell. The Thucydides Trap was never history. It was a political narrative, and its purpose was American retirement. The retirement has been canceled."