The ECONOMY Part Deux

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DiabloWags
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4:42p, 5/12/26

Hopefully, this thread will also produce over 284,000 views and 2,800 posts like the first one from 02/2025.

Today, the April CPI was announced.

It came in higher than expected at 3.8% from a year ago and +0.6% for April alone.

And wages fell for the first time in three years, after adjusting for inflation.
3.8% vs 3.6%

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Cal88
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7:14a, 5/13/26
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oski003
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In reply to Cal88 • 7:18a, 5/13/26
Cal88 said:


Folks here have been acting like everything is up 50%. 6-10% is probably what is accurate when folks post the misleading pictures of the high prices as if they are fact and then I correct with the prices I can get locally (often at Ralph's, Costco, or Trader Joe's).
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DiabloWags
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7:29a, 5/13/26
FACT: U.S. Wholesale Prices rose the most since December of 2022.

FACT: This clearly impacts interest rates.

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Cal88
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8:05a, 5/13/26


It's funny that MAGA was making the same argument before Trump's 2nd mandate and disastrous war of choice...
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DiabloWags
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:15a, 5/13/26
Cal88 said:


It's funny that MAGA was making the same argument before Trump's 2md mandate and disastrous war of choice...


Yes, it's funny that there are some in MAGA who continue to believe prices are up just "a little bit".
That's just another false narrative from the Kool-Aid drinkers.
Delusional.

Gasoline prices for Regular are up 43% from one year ago.
Air fares are up nearly 21% from a year ago and are most likely heading even higher.



AAA Fuel Prices

Airfare Inflation: Airline Ticket Prices (1964-2026)


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Cal88
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10:13a, 5/13/26
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oski003
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:35a, 5/13/26
DiabloWags said:
Cal88 said:


It's funny that MAGA was making the same argument before Trump's 2md mandate and disastrous war of choice...


Yes, it's funny that there are some in MAGA who continue to believe prices are up just "a little bit".
That's just another false narrative from the Kool-Aid drinkers.
Delusional.

Gasoline prices for Regular are up 43% from one year ago.
Air fares are up nearly 21% from a year ago and are most likely heading even higher.



AAA Fuel Prices

Airfare Inflation: Airline Ticket Prices (1964-2026)




Fuel and things that heavily rely on fuel, such as flying a plane, cost a lot more right now. Other items, such as ketchup and other outliers posted here, not so much.
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Cal88
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In reply to oski003 • 11:00a, 5/13/26
oski003 said:
DiabloWags said:
Cal88 said:


It's funny that MAGA was making the same argument before Trump's 2md mandate and disastrous war of choice...


Yes, it's funny that there are some in MAGA who continue to believe prices are up just "a little bit".
That's just another false narrative from the Kool-Aid drinkers.
Delusional.

Gasoline prices for Regular are up 43% from one year ago.
Air fares are up nearly 21% from a year ago and are most likely heading even higher.



AAA Fuel Prices

Airfare Inflation: Airline Ticket Prices (1964-2026)




Fuel and things that heavily rely on fuel, such as flying a plane, cost a lot more right now. Other items, such as ketchup and other outliers posted here, not so much.


Ketchup prices will be impacted too, tomatoes, transport, processing, plastics all these inputs going up down the road. The effect is not instantaneous unlike for gas prices, but it will work its way through the inventory and production cycle.
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oski003
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:12a, 5/13/26
Cal88 said:
oski003 said:
DiabloWags said:
Cal88 said:


It's funny that MAGA was making the same argument before Trump's 2md mandate and disastrous war of choice...


Yes, it's funny that there are some in MAGA who continue to believe prices are up just "a little bit".
That's just another false narrative from the Kool-Aid drinkers.
Delusional.

Gasoline prices for Regular are up 43% from one year ago.
Air fares are up nearly 21% from a year ago and are most likely heading even higher.



AAA Fuel Prices

Airfare Inflation: Airline Ticket Prices (1964-2026)




Fuel and things that heavily rely on fuel, such as flying a plane, cost a lot more right now. Other items, such as ketchup and other outliers posted here, not so much.


Ketchup prices will be impacted too, tomatoes, transport, processing, plastics all these inputs going up down the road. The effect is not instantaneous unlike for gas prices, but it will work its way through the inventory and production cycle.

Perhaps eventually, products will go as high as the the folks posted as if they already were.
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wifeisafurd
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12:11p, 5/13/26
This is more mixed, but negative view of the economy. Americans feel the economy sucks due to high interest rates, debt, and elevated costs for necessities. A large part of the voting populace had too much debt. No bueno for Trump, especially since he campaigned against Biden's inflation, and Trump is a contributor in inflation with his tariffs and other policies. Consumer confidence and spending are not good in this kind of economy and likely will slow growth.

That said, the stock market paints a much more rosy picture and there is economic growth. The things is Trump was all set up to succeed with a juiced economy. Inflation was waning somewhat, the tax bill is spurring growth, etc. And then came tariffs, and foreign policy decisions that are inflationary and a drag on the economy. Just saying.
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LudwigsFountain
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In reply to DiabloWags • 1:22p, 5/13/26
DiabloWags said:


Airfare Inflation: Airline Ticket Prices (1964-2026)



I looked at the Airline Ticket link and was confused. I'm sure prices have increased lately, but the table from that link shows a constant increase right through deregulation in 1978. Doesn't make sense to me. Perhaps the table wasn't adjusted for general inflation?
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chazzed
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5:46p, 5/13/26
More bad news.

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chazzed
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11:47a, 5/15/26
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chazzed
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4:31p, 5/16/26
Who else is tired of all this winning?

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concordtom
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12:54p, 5/17/26
Trump is an idiot.
His policies suck.
He only rules because of
Cult of personality
No shame
Blackmail, revenge, attack, intimidation, compromat, scorched earth no fear.


In other words, he's an arsonist with no care in the world (other than his sense of winning by taking money or crushing others) AND PEOPLE LIKE THAT!

Go figure, but it's why America now sucks.
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movielover
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3:49p, 5/17/26
(What's Left of) Our Economy: New Fed Data Add to the Evidence of a Big, Trumpian U.S. Manufacturing Turnaround by Alan Tonelson - May 15, 2026

"Today's official U.S. data on inflation-adjusted manufacturing output (for April) not only amounted to its best monthly showing in more than a year; not only once more made clear that Trump 2.0's record on this front left the Biden administration's in the dust; not only therefore yet again put the lie to the widespread claims that the Trump tariffs are undermining domestic industry.

"They also demonstrated that the manufacturing revival underway during the president's second term in office isn't simply "all due to artificial intelligence [AI]." (See, e.g., here.)...

"As of the new numbers, during the first 14 months of the second Trump administration after-inflation manufacturing production is up by 1.77 percent. During the final 14 months of the Biden administration, it was down by 1.52 percent.

"Since as of March, the Trump record's edge over the Biden record was up 1.07 percent versus also down 1.52 percent, the Trump margin has grown....

"As for the belief that "it's all AI" (clearly meant to discredit the idea that U.S.-based manufacturing's progress has little or nothing to do with any Trump policy moves), the facts document price-adjusted output increases that are much broader....

"This excellent manufacturing production report joins data in capital spending, productivity, trade deficit reduction, and even job creation, in burnishing the Trump 2.0 record on domestic industry. Similarly, it undercuts the critics who have long predicted a tariff-bred disaster for U.S.-based manufacturing, and more recently have dismissed the performance they ruled out as Trump policy-irrelevant. It makes you wonder what the next set of excuses will be unless it raises the question of why anyone outside the critics' ranks should really care."

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bearister
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6:07p, 5/17/26
Manufacturing in Donald Trump's second term presents a mixed picture of surging domestic investment and factory construction, contrasted by ongoing losses in overall factory jobs and persistent labor shortages.

The White House Press Office reports significant growth in factory activity, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index demonstrating sustained expansion. While the administration has secured major corporate expansion pledges from companies like Stellantis and Whirlpool, labor data reveals a contraction in overall factory payrolls.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside

“I love Cal deeply, by the way, what are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
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Cal88
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7:45a, 5/18/26
I wonder if AI/data centers are included in these data and counted as "factories".
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movielover
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11:21a, 5/18/26
(What's Left of) Our Economy: Despite Iran War Inflation, New U.S. Data Show Trump's Immigration Crackdown is Still Benefiting Wages for Legal U.S. Blue Collar Workers

By Alan Tonelson on May 18, 2026

"Specifically, real private sector wages in illegal aliens-heavy sectors for what Washington calls "production and nonsupervisory" employees have performed better during Trump 2.0 (with its deportations and general immigration crackdown) than during the final comparable period of Joe Biden's Open Borders-friendly presidency....

"No one can know when Iran War-spurred oil inflation will end and begin falling, and therefore when all real wages would seem likely to resume rising. But so far, despite two data months of a price-boosting Iran War, what can be known is that illegal aliens had been kneecapping wages for their blue collar legal counterparts, and that the Trump deportations and border crackdown has continued to reverse the damage."

https://alantonelson.wordpress.com/2026/05/18/whats-left-of-our-economy-despite-iran-war-inflation-new-u-s-data-show-trumps-immigration-crackdown-is-still-benefiting-wages-for-legal-u-s-blue-collar-workers/
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movielover
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12:14p, 5/18/26
Not sure how widely TrumpRx is used.

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Aunburdened
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11:40a, 5/19/26
The debt that actually matters
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movielover
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2:03p, 5/19/26
The de-industrialization of America was on purpose - the Council on Foreign Relations



They try to brand themselves as non political, but one media evaluation source had them as Left. Board of Directors include insufferable Margaret Brennan, a BlackRock executive, and a few Democrat big wigs.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to movielover • 10:23a, 5/20/26
movielover said:
Not sure how widely TrumpRx is used.



Not widely at all.
It's only for people using cash.

And that means that no one with insurance would use such a plan unless they had a very high deductible.
Cash transactions do not count toward a medical insurance policy deductible.

And yet the Orange Buffoon claims that:

"'This has been the greatest breakthrough in lowering health care costs in modern history,
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:40a, 5/20/26
DiabloWags said:
movielover said:
Not sure how widely TrumpRx is used.



Not widely at all.
It's only for people using cash.

And that means that no one with insurance would use such a plan unless they had a very high deductible.
Cash transactions do not count toward a medical insurance policy deductible.

And yet the Orange Buffoon claims that:

"'This has been the greatest breakthrough in lowering health care costs in modern history,


https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/54126-many-americans-like-the-concept-of-trumprx-but-the-name-turns-off-some-of-them
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DiabloWags
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10:59a, 5/20/26
TrumpRX does not afford nearly the discounts that Good RX does.
It's not even close.

Prescription Prices, Coupons & Pharmacy Information - GoodRx

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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 11:01a, 5/20/26
DiabloWags said:
TrumpRX does not afford nearly the discounts that Good RX does.
It's not even close.

Prescription Prices, Coupons & Pharmacy Information - GoodRx



Yes that makes sense considering GoodRx has been around since 2011
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DiabloWags
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11:02a, 5/20/26
THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP FOR THE HIGHER INTEREST RATES!

I'M GOING TO BE PURCHASING $2.5 MILLION IN TOMORROW'S AUCTION.

MAGA!


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DiabloWags
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In reply to chazzed • 1:54p, 5/20/26
chazzed said:


Thanks for keeping the ECONOMY thread going while I was on vacation Chazzed.
Doesn't seem to be much interest in economics here anyway, but to me it's all that really matters.

Trump's new Fed Chairman is going to be in his crosshairs immediately.
Good luck Mr. Warsh.

You're gonna need it!

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DiabloWags
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4:47p, 5/20/26






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movielover
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1:00a, 5/21/26
Boom!





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Cal88
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8:44a, 5/21/26
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DiabloWags
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8:52a, 5/21/26
Should be interesting to see what the results of the 2-year Treasury Auction is today.
$69 Billion.

Along with the 5 and 7-Year Auctions also scheduled for today.
$70 Billion and $44 Billion respectively.

Upcoming Auctions TreasuryDirect
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SBGold
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In reply to Cal88 • 9:03a, 5/21/26
Cal88 said:

Ouch, that is extremely troubling
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BearlySane88
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:10a, 5/21/26
Cal88 said:


Obama raised it by 26%. Biden raised it by 21%. Seems more like a government spending issue than a party issue
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