The ECONOMY Part Deux

11,120 Views | 158 Replies | Last: 21 hrs ago by PAC-10-BEAR
PAC-10-BEAR
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cal83dls79 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

In an AI singularity scenario with a highly agentic economy, explosive productivity growth driven by autonomous AI agents handling nearly all production, innovation, services, and R&D at near-zero marginal cost would cause the U.S. economy to expand dramatically (potentially doubling GDP every few years or faster).

This massive increase in output and tax revenue would dwarf the existing national debt (around $39 trillion), allowing the government to run large surpluses, refinance at lower real rates amid abundance-driven deflation, or simply service the debt effortlessly as it shrinks relative to the vastly larger economy. Essentially, the debt becomes trivial compared to the new wealth created, much like how post-WWII growth made high debt manageable only amplified exponentially by recursive AI self-improvement and hyper-efficient coordination.

I invite everyone to read this with the movie guy voice, not BI movie. But the in the "In a world gone mad guy" voice. Try it.

Consider that in the U.S., agriculture went from 70% of the workforce to <2%, and manufacturing from 30% to <10%m yet new jobs and vastly higher living standards emerged in a relatively short amount of time.

Autonomous AI agents work 24/7, coordinate at massive scale, and self-improve, leading to compounding growth where output can surge exponentially while marginal costs fall toward zero in many sectors.

Historical tech waves (electricity, computers, internet) each added to the annual growth; advanced AI has the potential to be a much larger force multiplier.
dajo9
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Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner
PAC-10-BEAR
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dajo9 said:

Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.
dajo9
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PAC-10-BEAR said:

dajo9 said:

Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.


You said the AI economy would be deflationary. So does everybody's wage go down?
PAC-10-BEAR
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dajo9 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

dajo9 said:

Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.


You said the AI economy would be deflationary. So does everybody's wage go down?

it depends on whether we're talking about nominal wages or real wages (what that money actually buys). In a strongly deflationary AI/agentic economy driven by massive productivity gains, we could see rising real wages and living standards, while nominal wages grow slowly or stay flat.
dajo9
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PAC-10-BEAR said:

dajo9 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

dajo9 said:

Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.


You said the AI economy would be deflationary. So does everybody's wage go down?

it depends on whether we're talking about nominal wages or real wages (what that money actually buys). In a strongly deflationary AI/agentic economy driven by massive productivity gains, we could see rising real wages and living standards, while nominal wages grow slowly or stay flat.


So if I just got a 30 year mortgage and my nominal wages go down (real wages up) I guess I'm screwed and the bank wins.

If your scenario is correct then right now is a terrible time to buy a home.
PAC-10-BEAR
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dajo9 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

dajo9 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

dajo9 said:

Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.


You said the AI economy would be deflationary. So does everybody's wage go down?

it depends on whether we're talking about nominal wages or real wages (what that money actually buys). In a strongly deflationary AI/agentic economy driven by massive productivity gains, we could see rising real wages and living standards, while nominal wages grow slowly or stay flat.


So if I just got a 30 year mortgage and my nominal wages go down (real wages up) I guess I'm screwed and the bank wins.

If your scenario is correct then right now is a terrible time to buy a home.

  • Your monthly mortgage is locked in nominal dollars. In deflation, the real burden of that payment shrinks over time because your money buys more (real wages rise as prices fall).
  • If nominal wages stay flat but prices drop 2 to 5%+ per year, your fixed payment becomes easier relative to your purchasing power. You effectively pay it off with "cheaper" dollars over 30 years.
  • Banks "lose" in real terms (they get repaid in less valuable money), while you win as a debtor.
  • cal83dls79
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    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

    Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.


    You said the AI economy would be deflationary. So does everybody's wage go down?

    it depends on whether we're talking about nominal wages or real wages (what that money actually buys). In a strongly deflationary AI/agentic economy driven by massive productivity gains, we could see rising real wages and living standards, while nominal wages grow slowly or stay flat.


    So if I just got a 30 year mortgage and my nominal wages go down (real wages up) I guess I'm screwed and the bank wins.

    If your scenario is correct then right now is a terrible time to buy a home.

  • Your monthly mortgage is locked in nominal dollars. In deflation, the real burden of that payment shrinks over time because your money buys more (real wages rise as prices fall).
  • If nominal wages stay flat but prices drop 2 to 5%+ per year, your fixed payment becomes easier relative to your purchasing power. You effectively pay it off with "cheaper" dollars over 30 years.
  • Banks "lose" in real terms (they get repaid in less valuable money), while you win as a debtor.

  • y'all ping me in the afterlife when we get to -2 pct inflation.
    Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
    dajo9
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    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

    Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.


    You said the AI economy would be deflationary. So does everybody's wage go down?

    it depends on whether we're talking about nominal wages or real wages (what that money actually buys). In a strongly deflationary AI/agentic economy driven by massive productivity gains, we could see rising real wages and living standards, while nominal wages grow slowly or stay flat.


    So if I just got a 30 year mortgage and my nominal wages go down (real wages up) I guess I'm screwed and the bank wins.

    If your scenario is correct then right now is a terrible time to buy a home.

  • Your monthly mortgage is locked in nominal dollars. In deflation, the real burden of that payment shrinks over time because your money buys more (real wages rise as prices fall).
  • If nominal wages stay flat but prices drop 2 to 5%+ per year, your fixed payment becomes easier relative to your purchasing power. You effectively pay it off with "cheaper" dollars over 30 years.
  • Banks "lose" in real terms (they get repaid in less valuable money), while you win as a debtor.



  • This is some seriously bad economics right here
    PAC-10-BEAR
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    cal83dls79 said:

    y'all ping me in the afterlife when we get to -2 pct inflation.

    AI agents are invisible but here and the humanoids are coming, y'hear?
    Dwight Way
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    cal83dls79 said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    dajo9 said:

    Tell me how the AI economy works for the average wage earner

    Similar to other tools like the computer, software applications, and the internet, the average wage earner would have to learn how to use AI tools to amplify their output to be competitive.


    You said the AI economy would be deflationary. So does everybody's wage go down?

    it depends on whether we're talking about nominal wages or real wages (what that money actually buys). In a strongly deflationary AI/agentic economy driven by massive productivity gains, we could see rising real wages and living standards, while nominal wages grow slowly or stay flat.


    So if I just got a 30 year mortgage and my nominal wages go down (real wages up) I guess I'm screwed and the bank wins.

    If your scenario is correct then right now is a terrible time to buy a home.

  • Your monthly mortgage is locked in nominal dollars. In deflation, the real burden of that payment shrinks over time because your money buys more (real wages rise as prices fall).
  • If nominal wages stay flat but prices drop 2 to 5%+ per year, your fixed payment becomes easier relative to your purchasing power. You effectively pay it off with "cheaper" dollars over 30 years.
  • Banks "lose" in real terms (they get repaid in less valuable money), while you win as a debtor.


  • y'all ping me in the afterlife when we get to -2 pct inflation.


    You can sure say that again!
    movielover
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    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    movielover said:

    Whose theory is this?

    Economists and institutions like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Vanguard, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Yale Budget Lab, and AEI have modeled how even modest AI productivity gains (0.5-2.5% extra annual growth in total factor productivity or labor productivity) could stabilize or reduce the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio by expanding the tax base faster than debt accumulates.


    Theories. Meanwhile, how did POTUS flip and decide to massively increase already world-leading MIC spending to $1.5 Trillion per year? Who spurred this, Israel? How will exploding debt and retiring Baby Boomers not bury us financially?
    PAC-10-BEAR
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    dajo9 said:

    This is some seriously bad economics right here

    PAC-10-BEAR
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    movielover said:

    PAC-10-BEAR said:

    movielover said:

    Whose theory is this?

    Economists and institutions like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Vanguard, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Yale Budget Lab, and AEI have modeled how even modest AI productivity gains (0.5-2.5% extra annual growth in total factor productivity or labor productivity) could stabilize or reduce the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio by expanding the tax base faster than debt accumulates.


    Theories. Meanwhile, how did POTUS flip and decide to massively increase already world-leading MIC spending to $1.5 Trillion per year? Who spurred this, Israel? How will exploding debt and retiring Baby Boomers not bury us financially?

    This isn't really a "flip". Trump publicly called for $1.5T over a $1T baseline in January 2026 via Truth Social, citing the need for a "Dream Military" to keep the US "SAFE and SECURE."

    US-Israel aid is a small fraction of the total US defense budget (typically ~$3-4B/year FMF baseline, with extras for Iron Dome/Gaza-related since Oct 2023 totaling ~$20B+ over two years).

    Realistically, sustained $1.5T+ levels + unchanged entitlements = higher debt trajectory, pressuring future generations via higher taxes, slower growth, or austerity. Economists across spectrum flag long-term fiscal unsustainability without revenue/spending reforms. The US isn't "bankrupt" soon (can print/borrow in its currency), but compounding interest + demographics make tough choices likely in the 2030s. Congress will decide the final numberfull $1.5T is ambitious and contested. Perhaps the strategy is to aim high knowing Congress won't approve the final number?


    movielover
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    Yes it is. He once suggested all the major powers could trim their MIC budgets by 50%. Well, except impotent Western Europe. England had to borrow operational military vessels?
    movielover
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    Yahoo Finance: "CNBC anchor stunned by $107B US trade deficit drop: 'Buckle up, this is unreal!' Are Trump's tariffs a triumph?"

    https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/cnbc-anchor-stunned-107b-us-120000399.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFyAEJgSoudTCwBimgvsHdtA4CT4EGEqrcR0rihtGFEcvgMhFDz0bm_3Bh8a***YfqPaN0NOZ0RalX9iDNCTjZd4CStWSDe61Iu0QKGZL1DW4Z68YsJekxrsDoH8Oaneps-m7t37X-yUsbvGIGKbEVg3y0TRi26SQkRk82qHBI85
    Dwight Way
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    Why are you posting trade deficit data from 2025?
    cal83dls79
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    Dwight Way said:

    Why are you posting trade deficit data from 2025?

    I noticed that too, it's an old regurgitated article from last year.
    Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
    PAC-10-BEAR
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    Hedge funds are aggressively betting on lower oil prices.

    Hedge fund net short bets on Brent crude oil are up to ~$18 billion, the highest in at least 10 years.
     
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