We're looking terrible against Iran (not just militarily). Our military strategies and weapons are seeming almost antiquated.

This shouldn't be a left or right issue (unless the DSA wants to abolish the military... wouldn't surprise me).

Nobody needs to outline the reasons for me...

- sclerotic bureaucracy
- generals who want to fight the previous war because they understood it better
- defense contractors who wield too much power... and also want to build an "even better" version of the previous war's weaponry (easier, less thought!)

However, in my naivete, I assumed we might have been observing the first few years of Russia-Ukraine and at least started to pivot. I am on record as having posted this several times on that dedicated thread. Silly me.

Not even including Hegseth and his idiocies, our situation is quite disconcerting, especially considering how much we spend. If I were China and really wanted Taiwan, I'd go for it now. We're just about out of missiles and ammo and Trump, at this time, is probably not in the mood for yet another war.

Big C said:

---

We're looking terrible against Iran (not just militarily). Our military strategies and weapons are seeming almost antiquated.

This shouldn't be a left or right issue (unless the DSA wants to abolish the military... wouldn't surprise me).

Nobody needs to outline the reasons for me...

- sclerotic bureaucracy
- generals who want to fight the previous war because they understood it better
- defense contractors who wield too much power... and also want to build an "even better" version of the previous war's weaponry (easier, less thought!)

However, in my naivete, I assumed we might have been observing the first few years of Russia-Ukraine and at least started to pivot. I am on record as having posted this several times on that dedicated thread. Silly me.

Not even including Hegseth and his idiocies, our situation is quite disconcerting, especially considering how much we spend. If I were China and really wanted Taiwan, I'd go for it now.

---

China can take Taiwan anytime it wants, but they will just continue integrating it into their economic orbit and formalize the deal sometime nest decade. The separatist movement in Taiwan is losing steam, and the business class is increasingly vested in mainland commerce and investment.

The battle with China is going to be over the islands north and south of Taiwan, belonging to the Philippines and Japan, as well as the Nine Dash Line that they claim, a large section of the South China Sea. The Chinese plan to take these next decade when they would be the top economic power and have a military that we couldn't challenge in their backyard.

As to Iran, they have been preparing for decades for this war, and they have a large home field advantage, almost as bad as the Turks (Ottomans) had in the Dardanelles Campaign where they soundly defeated Allied armies and navies using the terrain.

The main problems with the US military is hubris, and a corrupt MIC built for profit, not for performance.

I remember, growing up, reading about the Swiss and how, despite being neutral, they all did a stint in whatever sort of army they had... and, afterwards, kept their service weapon in their closet... just in case!

Maybe at some point, every American will be issued a 3D printer!

Cal88 said:

---

As to Iran, they have been preparing for decades for this war, and they have a large home field advantage, almost as bad as the Turks (Ottomans) had in the Dardanelles Campaign where they soundly defeated Allied armies and navies using the terrain.

---

Rumor has it that Trump's sons are enlisting and are chomping at the bit to participate in Dardanelles Campaign style warfare in the vast arid Central Plateau of Iran.*


*Mel Gibson promised to train them as a thank you for getting his guns back.

Our military is absolutely not doing terribly. Iran's Navy and Air Force no longer exist. Same for their civilian leaders. Their eceonomy is a disaster. We've had 18 people die in 4 months of fighting, nearly none of them at the hand of Iran. That is military domination of the highest order.

Trump obviously does not want to put boots on the ground and he's trying to placate the Muslim countries in the region who do not want a wider war. At the same time Iran has religious lunatics who won't bend the knee and are hanging on by using remaining missiles/drones asymmetrically.

This is a complex geopolitical matter compounded by Trump's Vietnam-like desire to manage the war.

Iran is winning the war. No other way to view what has transpired. KIA has nothing to do with the result - just like Vietnam.

dajo9 said:

---

Iran is winning the war. No other way to view what has transpired. KIA has nothing to do with the result - just like Vietnam.

---

Iran is not winning the war even if the US has not met their main objective. That is the only way to view what has transpired. Maintaining half of your capacity to launch missiles at your enemies and occasionally one getting through doesn't make you a winner.

dajo9 said:

---

Iran is winning the war. No other way to view what has transpired. KIA has nothing to do with the result - just like Vietnam.

---

It is simply absurd to claim Iran is winning the war. Iran is basically George Washington throughout large swaths of the Revolutionary War - absolutely getting their asses kicked militarily but hanging on for dear life in the hope that time could change their fate.

dajo9 said:

---

Iran is winning the war. No other way to view what has transpired. KIA has nothing to do with the result - just like Vietnam.

---

There are many other ways to view what has transpired.

tequila4kapp said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Iran is winning the war. No other way to view what has transpired. KIA has nothing to do with the result - just like Vietnam.

---

It is simply absurd to claim Iran is winning the war. Iran is basically George Washington throughout large swaths of the Revolutionary War - absolutely getting their asses kicked militarily but hanging on for dear life in the hope that time could change their fate.

---

We've lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian regime is more entrenched now than before the war. We've gained nothing politically or geographically and Iran has gained much. By MAGA metrics we won the Vietnam War - which we lost.

dajo9 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Iran is winning the war. No other way to view what has transpired. KIA has nothing to do with the result - just like Vietnam.

---

It is simply absurd to claim Iran is winning the war. Iran is basically George Washington throughout large swaths of the Revolutionary War - absolutely getting their asses kicked militarily but hanging on for dear life in the hope that time could change their fate.

---

We've lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian regime is more entrenched now than before the war. We've gained nothing politically or geographically and Iran has gained much. By MAGA metrics we won the Vietnam War - which we lost.

---

You're assuming the only definition of success is regime change. Vietnam ended with a communist takeover after U.S. forces withdrew. Iran is still under sanctions, militarily degraded, and strategically constrained. Whether the operation has achieved its goals is debatable but calling it Vietnam is rhetorical, not analytical.

BearlySane88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Iran is winning the war. No other way to view what has transpired. KIA has nothing to do with the result - just like Vietnam.

---

It is simply absurd to claim Iran is winning the war. Iran is basically George Washington throughout large swaths of the Revolutionary War - absolutely getting their asses kicked militarily but hanging on for dear life in the hope that time could change their fate.

---

We've lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian regime is more entrenched now than before the war. We've gained nothing politically or geographically and Iran has gained much. By MAGA metrics we won the Vietnam War - which we lost.

---

You're assuming the only definition of success is regime change. Vietnam ended with a communist takeover after U.S. forces withdrew. Iran is still under sanctions, militarily degraded, and strategically constrained. Whether the operation has achieved its goals is debatable but calling it Vietnam is rhetorical, not analytical.

---

The primary arguments supporting the premise that Iran is winning include:

1. Survival as Victory (Sun Tzu's Attrition)

Defining victory differently:
The U.S. and Israel aimed for total capitulation, complete elimination of proxy networks, and regime collapse.

Enduring the punishment:
Iran's goal was simply to survive. Despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in opening strikes and the destruction of its conventional navy, the regime remains intact.

Exhausting the opponent:
Strategists evoke Sun Tzu, noting that by "not losing" a war of endurance, Iran is successfully outlasting the political will of the U.S., which is eager to de-escalate before domestic elections.

2. Failure of U.S. Strategic Objectives
Unmet maximalist goals:
The U.S. entered the war to permanently dismantle Iran's nuclear infrastructure, eliminate its ballistic capabilities, and force regime change. None of these have been durably achieved.

Reconstitution capabilities:
Despite heavy strikes, Iran retained roughly 50% of its missile launchers and has rapidly reconstituted its forces using Russian assistance. Financial resources are already flowing back to Tehran, allowing it to rebuild.

3. Persistent Asymmetric Leverage
The Strait of Hormuz card:
Iran's most potent leverage remains its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military cannot 100% guarantee safe passage, meaning Iran only has to raise the threat of an attack to dictate global shipping dynamics and energy markets.

Formalizing control:
Iran is leveraging the conflict to negotiate new peace settlements, such as a reported deal with Oman to establish maritime service fees, formalizing its control over the trade corridor.

4. High Strategic Costs for the West
Allied entanglement:
The war is increasingly viewed as a case of "alliance entanglement" where the U.S. was pulled into a costly conflict by regional allies against its own long-term interests.

Global distractions:
The conflict has severely depleted Western munitions, cost billions of dollars, and dangerously diverted critical military assets away from deterring China in Asia.

*A little AI slop for the well read here to counter by line item.

tequila4kapp said:

---

Our military is absolutely not doing terribly. Iran's Navy and Air Force no longer exist. Same for their civilian leaders. Their eceonomy is a disaster. We've had 18 people die in 4 months of fighting, nearly none of them at the hand of Iran. That is military domination of the highest order.

Trump obviously does not want to put boots on the ground and he's trying to placate the Muslim countries in the region who do not want a wider war. At the same time Iran has religious lunatics who won't bend the knee and are hanging on by using remaining missiles/drones asymmetrically.

This is a complex geopolitical matter compounded by Trump's Vietnam-like desire to manage the war.

---

The bold part above shows that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the military dynamics in this war. Iran's navy and air force never were a significant part of their strike or defense package, their 10,000+ missile and drone arsenal, scattered in dozens of underground facilities all over their country is their main strike force, which has remained largely intact, and a significant part of that arsenal has been upgraded with better guidance systems using the Chinese GPS network.

This is the first war fought by the US where the rear and supply lines are completely vulnerable, which, in addition to the terrain being difficult to invest makes any ground offensive an unrealistic project.

The Iranians have been rational actors in this war, carefully choosing their moves.

The US is severely constrained in the conduct of this war by 3 factors:

- Economic fallout from a major escalation resulting in the destruction of GCC infrastructure - energy crisis, high interest rates, market crash, in a global economic context that is already difficult (see Japan's woes and pressure to sell US treasuries, AI bubble etc)

- Low inventory of weapons, severely depleted defensive inventory, so the USAF is unable to conduct a war of attrition. Iran by comparison retains 80% of its offensive inventory, with supply lines from China, Russia and N Korea open

- Iran has held back and systematically targeted US strategic equipment (radars, AA batteries, hangars) as opposed to military barracks and personnel. They have a large stock of accurate missiles and drones and are capable of inflicting far greater casualty numbers.

Iran has won. U.S. is now doing the bidding for them in the region. A total loss and waste of valuable resources

VOTE BLUE and FREE WAGS

SBGold said:

---

Iran has won. U.S. is now doing the bidding for them in the region. A total loss and waste of valuable resources

VOTE BLUE and FREE WAGS

---

This statement has little to no basis in reality.

tequila4kapp said:

---

Our military is absolutely not doing terribly. Iran's Navy and Air Force no longer exist. Same for their civilian leaders. Their eceonomy is a disaster. We've had 18 people die in 4 months of fighting, nearly none of them at the hand of Iran. That is military domination of the highest order.

Trump obviously does not want to put boots on the ground and he's trying to placate the Muslim countries in the region who do not want a wider war. At the same time Iran has religious lunatics who won't bend the knee and are hanging on by using remaining missiles/drones asymmetrically.

This is a complex geopolitical matter compounded by Trump's Vietnam-like desire to manage the war.

---

Micro:

- Before the "war", passage through the Strait of Hormuz flowed freely. Now, it is blocked.
- "Iran's Navy and Air Force no longer exist." Wait, has Iran ever even had a navy and/or an air force? Maybe, I dunno.
- We knocked out their leader, but his son took his place right away.
- I will acknowledge, we have degraded some of their capabilities and killed some of their school children future threats.


Macro (which was more my main point):

- We have shown an inability to quickly adapt to modern warfare, despite 3-4 years to watch a great case study.
- We have nearly exhausted our supply of million-dollar defensive missiles, shooting down their thousand-dollar drones.
- The whole world has been watching, kinda like the GameDay game against Miami. I doubt anybody is impressed.

Much gratitude to any Americans serving in the military, but the upper-brass hasn't been doing its job. We're fighting like it's 1999. Even if Pete Hegseth could do proper pullups, I doubt that would stop five thousand drones.

You're incorrect again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/us/politics/strait-of-hormuz-possible-reopening-deal.html

DM me if you would like to discuss further

VOTE BLue and Free Wags

SBGold said:

---

You're incorrect again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/us/politics/strait-of-hormuz-possible-reopening-deal.html

DM me if you would like to discuss further

VOTE BLue and Free Wags

---

We aren't doing their bidding but good try and your repeated trolling about dms after already being suspended for your conduct in dms is a weird move.

Consider the same ones saying we are doing so well in the forever war in Iran were the harshest critics when Biden exited the forever war in Afghanistan. They will tell us they are against forever wars.

dajo9 said:

---

Consider the same ones saying we are doing so well in the forever war in Iran were the harshest critics when Biden exited the forever war in Afghanistan. They will tell us they are against forever wars.

---

Idk if it's been you but others have tried to make this equivalency. Most people were upset with how Biden exited, not that he exited.

If I had choose between a bad exit or a bad entrance, I'll take the bad exit every time.

tequila4kapp said:

---

Our military is absolutely not doing terribly. Iran's Navy and Air Force no longer exist. Same for their civilian leaders. Their eceonomy is a disaster. We've had 18 people die in 4 months of fighting, nearly none of them at the hand of Iran. That is military domination of the highest order.

---

And yet after 5.5 months, military domination hasn't led to the desired outcome that Trump had envisioned.

Not sure why you continue to discount one of Iran's most indisputable weapons .... the Strait of Hormuz, which holds the global economy hostage.

bearister said:

---

If I had choose between a bad exit or a bad entrance, I'll take the bad exit every time.

---

That has literally nothing to do with the conversation being had.

BearlySane88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

If I had choose between a bad exit or a bad entrance, I'll take the bad exit every time.

---

That has literally nothing to do with the conversation being had.

---

You don't set the parameters of the discussions conducted in this forum.

bearister said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

If I had choose between a bad exit or a bad entrance, I'll take the bad exit every time.

---

That has literally nothing to do with the conversation being had.

---

You don't set the parameters of the discussions conducted in this forum.

---

Nope but I am able to let you know when your comment has no connection to the conversation being had.

BearlySane88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

If I had choose between a bad exit or a bad entrance, I'll take the bad exit every time.

---

That has literally nothing to do with the conversation being had.

---

You don't set the parameters of the discussions conducted in this forum.

---

Nope but I am able to let you know when your comment has no connection to the conversation being had.

---

Well, only you are suited to be the arbiter of whether a poster in this forum is complying with the rules that exist solely in your own mind.

bearister said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

If I had choose between a bad exit or a bad entrance, I'll take the bad exit every time.

---

That has literally nothing to do with the conversation being had.

---

You don't set the parameters of the discussions conducted in this forum.

---

Nope but I am able to let you know when your comment has no connection to the conversation being had.

---

Well, only you are suited to be the arbiter of whether a poster in this forum is complying with the rules that exist solely in your own mind.

---

The rules are clearly written out. I don't have to make them up.

So much WINNING!

bearister said:

---

BearlySane88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

If I had choose between a bad exit or a bad entrance, I'll take the bad exit every time.

---

That has literally nothing to do with the conversation being had.

---

You don't set the parameters of the discussions conducted in this forum.

---

Hear Hear!