Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

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Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

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People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

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But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

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Yes, his models are generally pretty accurate. That's not to say 100% accurate (nothing is).

He's also not doing polling, he's building a prediction model around polling. That's why he always outputs a prediction in terms of probabilities: factoring in the possibility that the polls are wrong and how much that's likely to change the result. But instead what happens is that polls are wrong and people blame Nate Silver.

sycasey said:

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Aunburdened said:

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sycasey said:

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Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

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Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

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Yes, his models are generally pretty accurate. That's not to say 100% accurate (nothing is).

He's also not doing polling, he's building a prediction model around polling. That's why he always outputs a prediction in terms of probabilities: factoring in the possibility that the polls are wrong and how much that's likely to change the result. But instead what happens is that polls are wrong and people blame Nate Silver.

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I built a prediction model. It said "voters are pissed at Democrats for doing nothing except Orange Man Bad." My prediction came true. Silver's prediction was wrong again.

Subscribe for future accurate insights at https://www.aunburdenedbywhathasbeen.com.

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You are such a clever boy.

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I would have used a different word than clever. Not that there's anything wrong with being clever.

Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

---

Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

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Name a pollster that is right 100%, 90%, or 80%, of the time?

BearNIt said:

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Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

---

Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

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Name a pollster that is right 100%, 90%, or 80%, of the time?

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All the pollsters are pretty lousy at this point, but when was the last time Nate Silver predicted anything of consequence correctly?

Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

---

Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

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Name a pollster that is right 100%, 90%, or 80%, of the time?

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All the pollsters are pretty lousy at this point, but when was the last time Nate Silver predicted anything of consequence correctly?

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Which elections since 2024 do you consider consequential?

Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

---

Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

---

Name a pollster that is right 100%, 90%, or 80%, of the time?

---

All the pollsters are pretty lousy at this point, but when was the last time Nate Silver predicted anything of consequence correctly?

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His midterm forecasts have been pretty close to correct (not every single race, but in the broad strokes of how the balance of power would turn out in Congress) the last couple of times. And honestly, his 2024 Presidential forecast was basically in range too. He had it as a close, 50/50 type election and it was. He even wrote an editorial for the NYT saying that his "gut" feeling was that Trump would win, even though his model showed it as a tossup. The only thing you've been able to raise is him being off on the prediction of Trump losing the popular vote, but is that even consequential? The important part is about who is likely to win the presidency.

Anarchistbear said:

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DaddyLegend said:

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Didn't Michelle's opponent wear a protect trans kids shirt and hijab at the same time?

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Still enough to beat a sideline reporter

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No doubt. The Muslims in Minnesota know Flanagan is bull****ting but will vote for her anyways.