F that!

DiabloWags said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

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I wonder if she's still telling Americans to suck it up and make sacrifices for higher gas prices.
This was back in mid-March.



MAGA candidate's 'tone deaf' Starbucks comments under fire

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way too rational for any socialist to accept

Oakbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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hanky1 said:

---

Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

---

I wonder if she's still telling Americans to suck it up and make sacrifices for higher gas prices.
This was back in mid-March.



MAGA candidate's 'tone deaf' Starbucks comments under fire

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way too rational for any socialist to accept

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But its what the fascists are telling us to do!

It takes a lot of COURAGE and SACRIFICE to walk up and down those NFL sidelines.

Michelle knows all about SACRIFICE.

MAGA!

Crash & Burn.

Guess Minnesotans didn't like making sacrifices for the Iran War by cutting back on their Starbux latte's.

My message to loser Tafoya:
Tough Tittie said the kittie when the milk ran dry, you f'ing Cal traitor.

*Maybe if you grovel sufficiently and contribute boku $$$ to the NIL fund, Cal will mail that diploma back to you that you earned with that Mickey Mouse major. You are a pompous, self righteous and tone death @$$.

bearister said:

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My message to loser Tafoya:
Tough Tittie said the kittie when the milk ran dry, you f'ing Cal traitor.

*Maybe if you grovel sufficiently and contribute boku $$$ to the NIL fund, Cal will mail that diploma back to you that you earned with that Mickey Mouse major. You are a pompous, self righteous and tone death @$$.

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Could not have said it better myself.

BLUE TSUNAMI BABY

bearister said:

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My message to loser Tafoya:
Tough Tittie said the kittie when the milk ran dry, you f'ing Cal traitor.

*Maybe if you grovel sufficiently and contribute boku $$$ to the NIL fund, Cal will mail that diploma back to you that you earned with that Mickey Mouse major. You are a pompous, self righteous and tone death @$$.

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Please, I just spit up part of my dessert...

Aunburdened said:

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sycasey said:

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Aunburdened said:

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BearNIt said:

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hanky1 said:

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Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

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Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

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People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

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But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

---

Yes, his models are generally pretty accurate. That's not to say 100% accurate (nothing is).

He's also not doing polling, he's building a prediction model around polling. That's why he always outputs a prediction in terms of probabilities: factoring in the possibility that the polls are wrong and how much that's likely to change the result. But instead what happens is that polls are wrong and people blame Nate Silver.

---

I built a prediction model. It said "voters are pissed at Democrats for doing nothing except Orange Man Bad." My prediction came true. Silver's prediction was wrong again.

Subscribe for future accurate insights at https://www.aunburdenedbywhathasbeen.com.

---

UPDATE:

Nate Silver's model gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the Senate.

Nate Silver vindicated again.

sycasey said:

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Aunburdened said:

---

sycasey said:

---

Aunburdened said:

---

BearNIt said:

---

hanky1 said:

---

Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

---

Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

---

Yes, his models are generally pretty accurate. That's not to say 100% accurate (nothing is).

He's also not doing polling, he's building a prediction model around polling. That's why he always outputs a prediction in terms of probabilities: factoring in the possibility that the polls are wrong and how much that's likely to change the result. But instead what happens is that polls are wrong and people blame Nate Silver.

---

I built a prediction model. It said "voters are pissed at Democrats for doing nothing except Orange Man Bad." My prediction came true. Silver's prediction was wrong again.

Subscribe for future accurate insights at https://www.aunburdenedbywhathasbeen.com.

---

UPDATE:

Nate Silver's model gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the Senate.

Nate Silver vindicated again.

---

If anything, the polls underestimated the size of the Democratic wave.

B.D.Bear said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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sycasey said:

---

Aunburdened said:

---

sycasey said:

---

Aunburdened said:

---

BearNIt said:

---

hanky1 said:

---

Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

---

Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

---

Yes, his models are generally pretty accurate. That's not to say 100% accurate (nothing is).

He's also not doing polling, he's building a prediction model around polling. That's why he always outputs a prediction in terms of probabilities: factoring in the possibility that the polls are wrong and how much that's likely to change the result. But instead what happens is that polls are wrong and people blame Nate Silver.

---

I built a prediction model. It said "voters are pissed at Democrats for doing nothing except Orange Man Bad." My prediction came true. Silver's prediction was wrong again.

Subscribe for future accurate insights at https://www.aunburdenedbywhathasbeen.com.

---

UPDATE:

Nate Silver's model gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the Senate.

Nate Silver vindicated again.

---

If anything, the polls underestimated the size of the Democratic wave.

---

That was a Praia do Norte sized wave

---

Being from the Pacific Northwest, I'd say it was a Lake Missoula sized flood wave.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

sycasey said:

---

Aunburdened said:

---

sycasey said:

---

Aunburdened said:

---

BearNIt said:

---

hanky1 said:

---

Cal alum Michele Tafoya, a former Democrat who renounced her Cal degree, is within striking distance of Dem candidate Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senator.

Go Michele! She is a true American and one of the last sane Cal grads remaining.

🚨 BREAKING: Michele Tafoya (R) is only two points away from overtaking Peggy Flanagan in the latest poll.

🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%
🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44%
Undecided: 4%

I’ve been saying it since January.

Minnesota is in play for Republicans. pic.twitter.com/xete16ayVO

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 8, 2026

---

Nate Silver has it 47.1 % Flanagan to 42.1% Tafoya as of 9/8/26

---

People still trust Nate Silver for election polling?

https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-polling-nate-silver-1981876

Quote:

---

But while Silver's swing state predictions may have been accurate, his model gave Harris a more than 70 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Trump's victory in that bracket was perhaps the biggest surprise of this election.

---

---

Yes, his models are generally pretty accurate. That's not to say 100% accurate (nothing is).

He's also not doing polling, he's building a prediction model around polling. That's why he always outputs a prediction in terms of probabilities: factoring in the possibility that the polls are wrong and how much that's likely to change the result. But instead what happens is that polls are wrong and people blame Nate Silver.

---

I built a prediction model. It said "voters are pissed at Democrats for doing nothing except Orange Man Bad." My prediction came true. Silver's prediction was wrong again.

Subscribe for future accurate insights at https://www.aunburdenedbywhathasbeen.com.

---

UPDATE:

Nate Silver's model gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the Senate.

Nate Silver vindicated again.

---

If anything, the polls underestimated the size of the Democratic wave.

---

Yup, and Silver was kind of hinting in his pre-election commentary that he thought this might be happening. Sort of like he hinted that Trump might be stronger than expected in 2016 and 2024.

He kinda knows what he's doing.

Guess Minnesotan's didn't believe in giving up their Starbucks latte's.