GB54;842845390 said:

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But the victory-if it comes- is more likely from his general bumbling, inaction, screwing up of health care or a cratering of the economy rather than Russia or global warming which are tangential issues to why he was elected.

---

All of this stuff feeds into it, but I do think the health care issue is the biggest. Trump's approval rating fell fastest after the first failed attempt at passing the AHCA through the House.

Russia will just provide a handy reason for Congress quickly removing him from office if it comes to that.

sycasey;842845332 said:

---

Most Presidents are never more popular than when they are first inaugurated, and Trump began with the lowest approval rating since that poll started being taken. I can absolutely see his approval rating staying in the toilet through 2020.

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But somehow he has maintained a pretty solid base of about 37% of those polled (as of last month at least). Should he start pulling rabbits out of his hat (or be perceived to do so) by presiding over an improving economy and by hammering on the notion he is keeping America safe from Korea and terrorism, that approval rating will rise significantly. The press is more impressed with nuance than a good portion of the public. So long as people feel safe, have jobs and are well fed most of them like the man behind the curtain.

slobear;842845411 said:

---

But somehow he has maintained a pretty solid base of about 37% of those polled (as of last month at least). Should he start pulling rabbits out of his hat (or be perceived to do so) by presiding over an improving economy and by hammering on the notion he is keeping America safe from Korea and terrorism, that approval rating will rise significantly. The press is more impressed with nuance than a good portion of the public. So long as people feel safe, have jobs and are well fed most of them like the man behind the curtain.

---

I suspect that Trump will not benefit from a rising economy (cycles suggest we are headed for another downturn), but that is how Bill Clinton recovered from a similarly low approval rating at this point.

I wonder about the terrorism issue and "keeping people safe." It worked for Bush (Jr.), but now people have been down that road before and saw where it ended. Could be that the public is more skeptical the next time a President wants to start more foreign military adventures.

slobear;842845411 said:

---

But somehow he has maintained a pretty solid base of about 37% of those polled (as of last month at least). Should he start pulling rabbits out of his hat (or be perceived to do so) by presiding over an improving economy and by hammering on the notion he is keeping America safe from Korea and terrorism, that approval rating will rise significantly. The press is more impressed with nuance than a good portion of the public. So long as people feel safe, have jobs and are well fed most of them like the man behind the curtain.

---

The economy has to be made better in certain states. I do think he has been good at symbolic stuff in the heartland, but does he have a plan for re-industrialization, imposing of tariffs, spending on infrastructure. I doubt it as these are not his party's wishes. Instead we will get tax cuts but I think the trickle down magical thinking is over. People don't sit around bars and coffee shops and say, " You know what we ought to do, Billy?. Cut Corporate taxes." I think the Democrats just need to sit tight, provide an alternate vision( for a change) and build the party from the bottom up which serves their constituents not their corporate masters.

Terrorist attacks are also a wild card but I think Trump's isolationism- or faux isolationism- was also more in touch with what people are feeling. We've been fighting radical Islam for 16 years and now we have to increase our military budget again because bombing seven countries is not enough!

How does this help us to the Rose Bowl?

Brainsmile;842845421 said:

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How does this help us to the Rose Bowl?

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Janet Napolitano- Clinton hack-not interested in football is out.. James Comey- ball player-is in

GB54;842845420 said:

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The economy has to be made better in certain states. I do think he has been good at symbolic stuff in the heartland, but does he have a plan for re-industrialization, imposing of tariffs, spending on infrastructure. I doubt it as these are not his party's wishes. Instead we will get tax cuts but I think the trickle down magical thinking is over. People don't sit around bars and coffee shops and say, " You know what we ought to do, Billy?. Cut Corporate taxes." I think the Democrats just need to sit tight, provide an alternate vision( for a change) and build the party from the bottom up which serves their constituents not their corporate masters.

---

Governor Brownback of Kansas had a trickle down tax cut policy for the last 6 years. The state is doing so badly that the a Republican-controlled legislature voted in taxes to help the state. Brownback vetoed the new laws but the legislature recently overrode the veto to keep the new taxes. Maybe there's hope.

digitcallous;842845448 said:

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Governor Brownback of Kansas had a trickle down tax cut policy for the last 6 years. The state is doing so badly that the a Republican-controlled legislature voted in taxes to help the state. Brownback vetoed the new laws but the legislature recently overrode the veto to keep the new taxes. Maybe there's hope.

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That is a peculiar circumstance because the Republicans in Kansas revolted against Brownback to stabilize the state's finances. Doesn't mean a thing for Democrats in that state though.

BearGoggles;842845092 said:

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I've yet to hear a compelling argument that Comey didn't deserve to be fired. He botched the Clinton email thing - MASSIVELY and inexcusably. The only problem is that Trump doing so had horrible optics - not just that he did it but how.

Comey's replacement - christopher wray - seems to be getting bipartisan support. If trump had announced him when Comey was fired, it would have been a very different narrative. All of this shows that Trump's impulsiveness and narcissism prevent him from making politically smart decisions (not to mention tweets).

BTW - I think a MAJOR reason Trump fired Comey is that Comey was not actively and aggressively investigating the leaks - probably because many of the leaks were coming from the FBI or other Comey cronies.

---

i for one am stunned at its comment to Trump that he basically said yes, Flynn is a good guy, possibly suggesting to a somewhat naive President on these matters he was killing the investigation. The correct response is Mr. President, I realize your new to this, but we can't have this conversation. But aas Director of the FBI I must conduct an independent investigation, and it is improper (even if well intended) for you to discuss that with me, if that is your intent. If we find General Flynn has broken the law, it will be up to the Justice Department, not me, as to how to proceed, and you yourself have the ability to pardon General Flynn, should you decide the Justice Department has improperly charged General Flynn. Instead the guy went back and wrote a gotcha memo, which never would have seen the light of day (along with all his accusations) had he not been fired. I think Clinton was right about this guy. In prior testimony, Comey was asked on several occasions as to whether the FBI investigation was being hindered by the White house, and he responded no. I thought we got rid of al this with J. Edgar.

Strykur;842845449 said:

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That is a peculiar circumstance because the Republicans in Kansas revolted against Brownback to stabilize the state's finances. Doesn't mean a thing for Democrats in that state though.

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It says a lot about the failed theory of supply side trickle down economics though

Go!Bears;842845346 said:

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What makes you think these things happen fast? Do you recall the Watergate timeline? Two years from crime to the presentation of clear evidence of that crime.

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Trump: Age 70. At least 60 pounds overweight. Poor diet. Sleeps a few hours each night. Does not exercise. Has nocturnal tweeting habits consistent with a substance abuse problem. Heck, he is a first round draft pick in most Death Pools due to his risk of heart attack or stroke. He won't live long enough to get impeached.

wifeisafurd;842845453 said:

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i for one am stunned at its comment to Trump that he basically said yes, Flynn is a good guy, possibly suggesting to a somewhat naive President on these matters he was killing the investigation. The correct response is Mr. President, I realize your new to this, but we can't have this conversation. But aas Director of the FBI I must conduct an independent investigation, and it is improper (even if well intended) for you to discuss that with me, if that is your intent. If we find General Flynn has broken the law, it will be up to the Justice Department, not me, as to how to proceed, and you yourself have the ability to pardon General Flynn, should you decide the Justice Department has improperly charged General Flynn. Instead the guy went back and wrote a gotcha memo, which never would have seen the light of day (along with all his accusations) had he not been fired. I think Clinton was right about this guy. In prior testimony, Comey was asked on several occasions as to whether the FBI investigation was being hindered by the White house, and he responded no. I thought we got rid of al this with J. Edgar.

---

Trump and Comey - Two standard fare incompetent Republicans routinely putting themselves ahead of law and country.

bearister;842845458 said:

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Trump: Age 70. At least 60 pounds overweight. Poor diet. Sleeps a few hours each night. Does not exercise. Has nocturnal tweeting habits consistent with a substance abuse problem. Heck, he is a first round draft pick in most Death Pools due to his risk of heart attack or stroke. He won't live long enough to get impeached.

---

Why Trump will be alive for 20 more years: His dad died at age 93. His mom died at 88. He has avoided abusing his body with drugs, alcohol and cigarettes. Also, some fat guys end up living long lives. Tommy Lasorda is 3 months shy of 90... Mickey Rooney....Don Rickles...Trump had a lot of stamina in his campaign...Trump has less grey hair than I do, and I'm close in age to Donald Trump Jr.....Presidents of the United States get the best medical treatment nowadays. Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan lived into their early 90s. George H.W. Bush turns 93 on Monday. Jimmy Carter turns 93 in October. Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton will likely live into their 90s. Richard Nixon is the youngest most recent president to die at an early age -- and he was 81, and he probably died because his wife died a year earlier.

Interestingly, during Nixon's presidency, three presidents died -- Eisenhower, LBJ and Truman -- resulting in there being 0 living ex-presidents. (Truman and LBJ died 4 weeks apart.)

Currently, there are 5 living ex-presidents. That's only happened twice before: When Bill Clinton took office and when Abraham Lincoln took office.


Why Trump will be dead in 5 years: Usually, the president sees a Naval doctor and the results are released to the public. The thing is Trump has seen that whack job doctor who is very sketchy. That doctor seemed like he told Trump what he wanted to here -- including, wrongly measuring Trump as being 6-foot-3, even though he and 6-foot-1.5 Obama are the exact same height.




Trump will die early if he doesn't see an actual good doctor and he remains stubborn about changing his health habits, which seems likely.

https://www.amazon.com/White-House-Doctor-Patients-Presidents/dp/0312534841

wifeisafurd;842845453 said:

---

i for one am stunned at its comment to Trump that he basically said yes, Flynn is a good guy, possibly suggesting to a somewhat naive President on these matters he was killing the investigation. The correct response is Mr. President, I realize your new to this, but we can't have this conversation. But aas Director of the FBI I must conduct an independent investigation, and it is improper (even if well intended) for you to discuss that with me, if that is your intent. If we find General Flynn has broken the law, it will be up to the Justice Department, not me, as to how to proceed, and you yourself have the ability to pardon General Flynn, should you decide the Justice Department has improperly charged General Flynn. Instead the guy went back and wrote a gotcha memo, which never would have seen the light of day (along with all his accusations) had he not been fired. I think Clinton was right about this guy. In prior testimony, Comey was asked on several occasions as to whether the FBI investigation was being hindered by the White house, and he responded no. I thought we got rid of al this with J. Edgar.

---

Trump doesn't know what he's up against. Comey is nothing but a slick and shrewd insider. The FBI Director who investigates leaks, leaked his story to a third party to cover his a$$.

GB54;842845477 said:

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Trump doesn't know what he's up against. Comey is nothing but a slick and shrewd insider. The FBI Director who investigates leaks, leaked his story to a third party to cover his a$$.

---

He was a private citizen who "leaked." So was Robert Gates when he discussed his conversations with Obama in his memoirs.

Liberals are creaming their pants that there was no smoking gun. LOL. Although it's funny that the dude called Trump a straight liar, but since the bar for Trump is so low it's considered a victory for the Repubs.

hanky1;842845480 said:

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Liberals are creaming their pants that there was no smoking gun. LOL. Although it's funny that the dude called Trump a straight liar, but since the bar for Trump is so low it's considered a victory for the Repubs.

---

I mean, seriously: Do Democrats really want Trump gone? Do they really want the much-savvier Mike Pence to do what Trump was going to do, but with a lot more grace?

Although Pence seems like a terrible campaigner, I think Dems would rather face Trump in 2020 than Pence. Trump will be the Republicans' Jimmy Carter.

If Democrats had any brains they would drag this Russian thing out for as long as possible. Make it hang over the next 2 elections. But some Democrats are really stupid. Look at Al Green or Maxine Waters. Already trying to impeach Trump. Too soon. Need to think more strategically.

A Right Wing spin on current events:

http://mobile.wnd.com/2017/06/the-impeach-trump-conspiracy/

hanky1;842845487 said:

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If Democrats had any brains they would drag this Russian thing out for as long as possible. Make it hang over the next 2 elections. But some Democrats are really stupid. Look at Al Green or Maxine Waters. Already trying to impeach Trump. Too soon. Need to think more strategically.

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Country over party. Republicans have long forgotten that.

grandmastapoop;842845504 said:

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Country over party. Republicans have long forgotten that.

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Other way around.

grandmastapoop;842845504 said:

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Country over party. Republicans have long forgotten that.

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It's not clear to me that pence would be "better" for the country. I think it's less likely there's a nuclear holocaust with pence. But I also think pence might be able to get some pretty damaging legislation thru. i don't see trump getting anything done before the midterms.

So you see...the republicans are looking out for country before party.

okaydo;842845483 said:

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I mean, seriously: Do Democrats really want Trump gone? Do they really want the much-savvier Mike Pence to do what Trump was going to do, but with a lot more grace?

Although Pence seems like a terrible campaigner, I think Dems would rather face Trump in 2020 than Pence. Trump will be the Republicans' Jimmy Carter.

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As a Democrat, I want Trump. He has been inept at getting any Republican agenda passed even with both houses. Pence would have gotten a lot done by now. I believe in 2020 Pence would be a more formidable candidate.

As an American, I want Pence. He understands what is required to be president and I think is qualified in an emergency and would not be destroying our standing with our allies.

I'm an American before I'm a Democrat.

ducky23;842845510 said:

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It's not clear to me that pence would be "better" for the country. I think it's less likely there's a nuclear holocaust with pence.

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According to most scifi movies (most recently Snowpiercer) one benefit of a nuclear holocaust is that it should help combat global warming.

Strykur;842845323 said:

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Then Trump is never getting impeached, and if he had done something criminal, that would have come out months ago. The Democrats are going to destroy themselves over this unless a criminal circumstance can be proven.

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There are completely different standards for criminal conviction, charging the President with a crime and impeachment. You may not like what Oak has to say, but from a legal standpoint, he is correct. You need look no further than the Nixon and Clinton situations.

dajo9;842845462 said:

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Trump and Comey - Two standard fare incompetent Republicans routinely putting themselves ahead of law and country.

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One independent turned GOP and one GOP turned independent (Comey withdrew his party affiliation a few years ago). Agree neither passes the ethics smell test.

dajo9;842845136 said:

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Scooter Libby is a convicted felon and criminal. Your attempt to whitewash his actions says more about your partisanship when it comes to criminal matters than anything else.

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Just what was Scooter Libby convicted of?

OaktownBear;842845512 said:

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As a Democrat, I want Trump. He has been inept at getting any Republican agenda passed even with both houses. Pence would have gotten a lot done by now. I believe in 2020 Pence would be a more formidable candidate.

As an American, I want Pence. He understands what is required to be president and I think is qualified in an emergency and would not be destroying our standing with our allies.

I'm an American before I'm a Democrat.

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Same. Trump will hasten the fall of the modern Republican Party, but I wouldn't take the potential damage to America and our democracy that comes with it.

OaktownBear;842845512 said:

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As a Democrat, I want Trump. He has been inept at getting any Republican agenda passed even with both houses. Pence would have gotten a lot done by now. I believe in 2020 Pence would be a more formidable candidate.

As an American, I want Pence. He understands what is required to be president and I think is qualified in an emergency and would not be destroying our standing with our allies.

I'm an American before I'm a Democrat.

---

I agree with you.

Having Trump as president for the next two election 2018 and 2020 might be the best thing for Democrats and the possibility of taking control of Congress.
But while Pence is an arch-conservative the information I currently know of does not show that he is a traitor or a Russian Stooge. (Although he has appeared too willing to turn a blind eye to the appearance of wrong doing by certain members of the Trump's staff, cabinet and family).

With Trump I feel that either through conscious wrong-doing or incompetence and based upon his lack of understanding and appreciation for the way that our democracy is supposed to work, over the next 3 and one half years, Trump could do some long term serious damage to our institutions and to the way the Constitution is supposed to work

To me I can see some of those stress fractures already occurring in the way that a number of Trump's supporters are willing to excuse and explain away what many of our forefathers would have called "Treason" and "Naked Corruption and self-dealing". The worst example of which is Kushner. Attempting to set up a "back channel communication" with Putin while working through Russian Intelligence networks and with Russian bankers so that the US intelligence agencies cannot know what is happening.

Then to hear from reputable WH sources the excuse that back channel communications were not unheard of in past administrations. That much is correct. BUT all of such back channel communications are done through US intelligence agencies. Only spies use back channel communications through Russian (formerly Soviet) intelligence agencies.

Sonofoski;842845523 said:

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Just what was Scooter Libby convicted of?

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You don't know?

sycasey;842845380 said:

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Obstruction of justice.

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wifeisafurd;842845520 said:

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There are completely different standards for criminal conviction, charging the President with a crime and impeachment. You may not like what Oak has to say, but from a legal standpoint, he is correct. You need look no further than the Nixon and Clinton situations.

---

Noted conservative and Trump support (sarcasm), Alan Dershowitz, has pretty much nailed the legal issue. It is within Trump's right, as President and head of the unified executive branch, to direct the FBI or justice department "who to investigate, who to stop investigating, who to prosecute and who not to prosecute." Probably the only exception to that is if the President himself is being investigated of a crime (e.g., Nixon), but that was not the case here. In fact, Comey has confirmed Trump was never being investigated. So the whole "criminally charging Trump for obstruction" narrative is a fairy tail.

The fact that Trump is not at risk criminally is totally distinct from the political aspects. There is longstanding custom that Presidents are not supposed to interfere in criminal investigations. Not because its illegal (See Dershowitz), but because it is perceived as improper. Is it an impeachable offense? Maybe. But clearly the remedy is political, not criminal.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/06/08/dershowitz-comey-confirms-that-im-right-and-all-democratic-commentators-are-wrong.html

Sonofoski;842845523 said:

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Just what was Scooter Libby convicted of?

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Scooter Libby was not president. He was convicted of making false statement (lying to a grand jury) which was also construed as obstruction. Totally different situation than what Trump apparently did.

Bonus Questions: Comey admitted leaking the contents of a confidential (possibly classified) government document (his memo) with the specific intention of forcing the appointment of a special prosecutor. Didn't he obstruct the justice department (and FBI's) investigation? He literally ENDED those agencies investigations. Will the Special Prosecutor investigate Comey for disclosing confidential information? From a broader perspective, did Comey just justify Snowden-esqu leaking by federal employees anytime they disagree with their bosses? How can the FBI/Justice department prosecute leakers if they are doing the same thing?

Before today, Trump was already pretty much regarded as a buffoon, liar, and narcissist. In the long run, I think Comey did more damage to himself today than Trump. Comey is now pretty much confirmed as an out-of-control self-appointed crusader, who lacked the courage to resign or come forward prior to being fired. Think about it - all along he was motivated by a desire to save his job, not do the right thing.

hanky1;842845487 said:

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If Democrats had any brains they would drag this Russian thing out for as long as possible. Make it hang over the next 2 elections. But some Democrats are really stupid. Look at Al Green or Maxine Waters. Already trying to impeach Trump. Too soon. Need to think more strategically.

---

This thing will drag out for a long time regardless of what Democrats do. Remember how long it took for Watergate to reach a climax.

BearGoggles;842845529 said:

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Before today, Trump was already pretty much regarded as a buffoon, liar, and narcissist. In the long run, I think Comey did more damage to himself today than Trump. Comey is now pretty much confirmed as an out-of-control self-appointed crusader, who lacked the courage to resign or come forward prior to being fired. Think about it - all along he was motivated by a desire to save his job, not do the right thing.

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How much "damage" can Comey even do to himself here? He's already fired. And if Trump is regarded as a liar, then I don't see how Comey damages his own reputation by revealing him as such.

GivemTheAxe;842845526 said:

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With Trump I feel that either through conscious wrong-doing or incompetence and based upon his lack of understanding and appreciation for the way that our democracy is supposed to work, over the next 3 and one half years, Trump could do some long term serious damage to our institutions and to the way the Constitution is supposed to work

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While I agree with all of this, it also makes me consider the counter-factual: what if a few states flip by 2% and Hillary becomes President? In some corners they were suggesting that this could be a prelude to civil war (right-wing conservatives would NEVER accept Hillary in the White House after enduring eight years of Obama). I'm not sure about that -- the divide in the country is not so easily drawn between free states and slave states as it was during our actual Civil War -- but the fact that it was even being mentioned speaks to how deep the animosity went.

We'd still have a totally dysfunctional government, just in a different way. The Republican Congress refusing to do anything with Hillary, possibly shutting down the government over it. Constant investigations coming out of House Oversight. Benghazi hearing after Benghazi hearing (not literally that, but the GOP constantly coming up with new ways to insinuate that Hillary is a criminal). Maybe Hillary fires Comey for different reasons and touches off another firestorm of controversy. Maybe we get some good old-fashioned assassination attempts. Maybe Bill bumbles around and creates some new problems like he did with Lynch.

I suspect we were headed for some kind of Constitutional crisis either way.

Strykur;842845367 said:

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Yes, as of right now. That will sharply decline if this Russian bullshit goes nowhere. Again, if nothing proven, then nothing gained.

Here is what the left does not get: if they think Trump is such a bumbling imbecile (and he kind of is), how could he execute, and keep completely secret, illegal activity with the Russians or anyone else? He is either an idiot, or such a damn genius that he is able to brilliantly convince the public that is a complete loon to hide what he does in secret, FROM EVERYBODY!

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Trump didn't keep it completely secret*. His fingerprints are all over it in the form of the suspicious contacts between his close political allies/advisors and the Russians during and after the general election. Of course it all points back to Trump, and now the former FBI Director has claimed under oath that the president asked him to stop the Flynn investigation.

We don't need to have it proven beyond reasonable doubt that the president was personally involved in the Russian effort to throw the 2016 election in order to impeach him. That's not the burden of proof here. If you think it's merely probable that the president did something for which he should be impeached, then he should be impeached. We can't have people who are probably traitors to democracy in the White House. I think it's easily probable. We don't need to wait for a smoking gun. Not everyone is as arrogantly stupid as Nixon was, to leave us 200 hours of audiotape of his impeachable conspiracies.

I think Strykur is right about one thing: a lot is on the line for the Democrats in the investigation. The American public is not noted for its judgment or attention span. If all that is eventually revealed is not enough to form a critical mass against Trump, he may well rally from his current unpopularity before either the 2018 or 2020 election. If that happens, the Democrats (and the nation itself) will be forced to suffer another 2-4 years of total domination of the federal government by Republicans.


* assuming he did it at all