OT: New Fed. Tax Bill - Is this how it ends for Cal?

37,533 Views | 415 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by OdontoBear66
wifeisafurd
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BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

I should have added my rule of thumb for who is rich applies to working age people only, not senior citizen retirees.

Otherwise what I here from you is that other things are unequal so it doesn't make any sense to call for ordinary income and capital gain income to be treated equally. That argument is weak, imo.

Ordinary income earners and capital gains recipients can be allowed to make use of the same set of deductions, whatever people decide those deductions are. Honestly, I'm ok with getting rid of all deductions except child and student loan deductions if the middle class is given equivalent rate reductions.
This is a really good, well though out comment

I have a tax background and therefore often get lost in the details. But capital gains really adds an enormous complexity and is a bad way to try and compensate for the prejudice in our tax code against equity in favor of debt. See the Joint Committee on Taxation Report dated May 20, 2016. Instead of making up for bad policy in the tax code, the capital gains rate should be eliminated.

I'm going to take two things off the table.

(1)Real Estate is Different. If you hold real estate you want don't want to be taxed on inflation as when you sell you are being paid in today's dollars, which have less value, and then you are paying a tax on the lost value. Fair enough, but most people in real estate avoid taxes through deferral mechanisms or in the case of non-business property, there is tax exclusion on sale of residences.

(2)Treat Retirees differently. Reasons are enunciated in other posts and taxes on retiree investment earnings effectively double-tax that income. Labor income is taxed when it is earned, and investments are generally made out of after-tax earningsso capital-gains levies represent another bite out of an investor's money. In effect, the system punishes those who put their money to work. But why not simplify things and give seniors a credit for stock and bond income to avoid the complexity of capital gains, and you can limit the size of the credit for those that live for wealth redistribution? (There is a whole discussion regarding retirement accounts which I am admittedly avoiding, due to complication).

If you take out real estate and retirees, most capital gains deal with equity investments. Capital gains supposedly differ from regular income because they can be much harder hit by inflation, so they need a lower tax rate to reflect that fact since they don't have the current tax beaks for real estate. This is less of a factor the several years, but I'm willing to concede it is a legit argument. The simple fix is to index capital (if not all) income to inflation, just as we index Social Security and all sorts of other benefits via "cost-of-living" adjustments that account for inflation. We even inflation adjust our Social Security taxes. This would actually insure a more just result, than picking some arbitrary reduced tax rate to benefit everyone.

One major argument for capital gains rates, those who have them will keep more of their money and save it, which will inevitably find its way into investments in the US that, on the margin, will spur domestic economic growth. Since those with capital gains are more wealthy, they save more of any extra income and spur the economy. But what if the tax break went to simply reduce all income? Is domestic spending by the less wealthy of a tax break (since they don't save as much they spend rather than save) any worse an investment than the capital investment made by wealthy? I have not seen one study that proves this. In theory the tax break misdirects scarce resources into less productive activities that produce income that is taxed as capital gains instead of ordinary income. It also ignores there is some question of correlation between savings from capital gains and business investment. The major source of domestic capital for much investment in the U.S. is not affected by the taxation of capital gains. This capital comes from foreign investors, institutional investors such as pensions, life insurance and 401(k)-type retirement accounts and IRAs, and nonprofits. Nor has there been shown a correlation between overall capital investment and changes in capital gain rates. Again, I have seen no study that proves that capital gains is a net positive for the economy versus a simple drop in ordinary tax rates for everyone.


Complexity and Consequences:

Lower rates provide perverse incentives, spurring people to go into certain jobs that are driven by capital gains. Further, some economists argue a low capital-gains rate, defeats the idea of progressive taxation, since mostly wealthy individuals take advantage of the lower rate. I appreciate that there are counter arguments, but let us assume this is at least a concern.

All that said, I know of no other item that adds more complexity to tax returns and planning. Capital gains are the cause for tax shelters or other strategies to re-characterize income so it is taxed at the lower capital-gains rate, rather than as regular income. Most tax planning is aimed at capital gains treatment in big accounting shops. This is an amazing distortion and I would propose is behind a substantial portion of Treasury Regulations (which are amazing complex and long) and many court cases, all which go away if you eliminate the dual tax rate system.

The problem is that the arguments for lower tax rates on capital gains is they are necessary to fix other defects in the income tax. Corporate income, for instance, is double-taxed because it's subject to both corporate and individual income tax. Instead, it provides a deduction for debt capital and one level of income to debt investor who can structure its debt instrument to have many of the same rights as equity holders (e.g., voting rights). Allowing this structure probably is bad policy because it results in businesses taking on too much debt, rather than financing spending by selling shares in the business and diversifying ownership. Deducting interest expenses is a tax benefit, conferring the preference to debt and avoids double taxation. Moreover, debt held by consumers is an itemized deduction with similar distortions.

These may be good arguments for tax reform such as for inflation adjustments, but they are not reasons to favor capital gains. A better approach to the overall question of capital gains would be to tax them and dividends as ordinary income, eliminate or reduce other tax breaks, and use the revenue gained to cut ordinary income-tax rates. This approach would reduce distortions that arise from attempts to convert ordinary income to capital gains and the lower ordinary income-tax rate would reduce the incentives for tax avoidance and complexity generally.


How does inflation affect real estate assets differently than stock or other capital assets? If I buy IBM shares and hold them for 20 years how is that different than doing so with a real estate asset (ignoring depreciation, which potentially is responsible for much of the gain)?
It doesn't per se. The reason I took real estate out of the equation is:

1) it has tax breaks/rules that don't apply to stocks (e.g., 1031 exchanges) or business and so real estate is different topic.
2) people in real estate tend not recognize capital gains due to tax deferrals or exclusions, and the arguments related to capital gains really are very different than the arguments for and against the tax breaks given to different types of real estate. .

BTW, deprecation recapture can make some of the gain ordinary, but really doesn't impact the inflation issue. Moreover land is not depreciable, only improvements.
bluehenbear
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Furd now has "the boot" which is the foot equivalent of "the glove"
BeachedBear
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bluehenbear said:

Furd now has "the boot" which is the foot equivalent of "the glove"
I believe they also have "the condom" and "the hoodie"
sycasey
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I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.


wifeisafurd
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sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.



I can recall years of GOP complaints that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation and now they are doing the same thing with the tax bill.
sycasey
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wifeisafurd said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.



I can recall years of GOP complaints that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation and now they are doing the same thing with the tax bill.
It's almost like all of their Obamacare criticism was politically-motivated and had nothing to do with policy or process.
GMP
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sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
sycasey
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GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
calbear93
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sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
sycasey
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calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
I'd say their majority is also gone if they pass something like this that completely destroys the health insurance market, but we'll see if it makes it to the final version.

This does seem to be McConnell's method: making the members of his caucus walk the plank, over and over again.
dajo9
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wifeisafurd said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.



I can recall years of GOP complaints that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation and now they are doing the same thing with the tax bill.
Except it was always a lie that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation. They refused to participate in any productive way.
dajo9
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The Republicans are backed and funded by the 1% to make the 1% more wealthy and powerful. Now that they are in power, Republican politicians are in a tough spot. They can either do the bidding of their donors and pass legislation that will make them incredibly unpopular or they can not do the bidding of their donors and lose the funding that allows them to manipulate the population come election time.

I think they will lose their majority whether they pass this legislation or not. They are in a can't win situation - the only question is how much damage will they do to the average American before they are voted out. If they don't do the damage though, then what have their donors been paying for all this time?
wifeisafurd
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dajo9 said:

wifeisafurd said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.



I can recall years of GOP complaints that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation and now they are doing the same thing with the tax bill.
Except it was always a lie that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation. They refused to participate in any productive way.
Don't disagree. Noting the irony since there will be no Democratic input after the GOP did this.

Also, even more Senate changes per CNN:

The Senate tax overhaul plan underwent some big changes overnight.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, proposed a package of sweeping changes, including growing the child tax credit, reducing the tax rates for some income brackets, and reducing the tax penalty for not having health insurance to zero effectively eliminating the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate.
Also among the proposals: making nearly all of the tax changes for individuals temporary, while keeping major corporate changes permanent.

Dumb question: How do they make the corporate changes permanent and meet reconciliation requirements? Not being snarly I don't know the process.
Anarchistbear
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The money's not there to offset the lost of revenues on the business side, so to find the money they are goring two of their own constituencies-- Republicans
who lose the SALT deductions in blue states and Trump voters who lose the mandate. Meanwhile they make the business taxes permanent and phase out individual breaks. They've also delayed the corporate cuts which will make the market nervous.

This is emblematic of a party that is stuck with the magical thinking of the Reagan era but with the wrong electorate. Their base is not who they think it is and corporations may own them but they don't vote . What will happen after all this will be a Bush style tax cut for individuals and a declaration of victory by McConnel and Trump.
wifeisafurd
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calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
Maybe they just don't know what they are doing, and putting in anything to keep any rogue Senator on board. Why would the 3 GOP Senators that wouldn't kill Obamacare support a tax change that will be the final nail in the Obamacare coffin for insurance companies?
BearGoggles
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dajo9 said:

wifeisafurd said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.



I can recall years of GOP complaints that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation and now they are doing the same thing with the tax bill.
Except it was always a lie that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation. They refused to participate in any productive way.
This is silly. When you fundamentally oppose the policy (e.g., government mandated healthcare), then how do you productively participate in formulating that policy?

Why didn't/don't liberals "productively participate' in repealing Obamacare, restricting abortions, or building the wall?

Wife's point is well taken - in the long term it is bad policy for EITHER party to enact sweeping legislation under strictly partisan majorities - particularly when that policy does not have widespread public support (e.g., Obamacare).

The republicans are in danger of making that same mistake now (thought its not clear if the policy has public support, since the details are not known).

BearGoggles
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wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
Maybe they just don't know what they are doing, and putting in anything to keep any rogue Senator on board. Why would the 3 GOP Senators that wouldn't kill Obamacare support a tax change that will be the final nail in the Obamacare coffin for insurance companies?
As I recall, the three republican senators opposed the Obamacare repeal bill on procedural grounds - not necessarily substantive. McCain felt that the bill - which contained massive changes to the Obamacare law (block grants, etc.) should go through the normal hearing/vetting process and the Republicans were trying to ram it through. I don't think he had a disagreement with the substantive policy per se - at least not all of it.

In this case, they are repealing only the mandate penalty and not enacting the other measures, all while filing the typical reconciliation process. I think that's why the senators might support it - narrower/smaller change after following correct process.
BearGoggles
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calbear93
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wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
Maybe they just don't know what they are doing, and putting in anything to keep any rogue Senator on board. Why would the 3 GOP Senators that wouldn't kill Obamacare support a tax change that will be the final nail in the Obamacare coffin for insurance companies?
I think it is a stupid move and will be killed before it is allowed to kill the tax reform. They just need to get over the Obamacare repeal and take up fixing healthcare separately. I know they were counting on the savings from repealing Obamacare in part to fund the tax cut, but they need to fix the corporate tax rate issue and then deal with Obamacare on a bipartisan basis.
sycasey
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BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
Maybe they just don't know what they are doing, and putting in anything to keep any rogue Senator on board. Why would the 3 GOP Senators that wouldn't kill Obamacare support a tax change that will be the final nail in the Obamacare coffin for insurance companies?
As I recall, the three republican senators opposed the Obamacare repeal bill on procedural grounds - not necessarily substantive. McCain felt that the bill - which contained massive changes to the Obamacare law (block grants, etc.) should go through the normal hearing/vetting process and the Republicans were trying to ram it through. I don't think he had a disagreement with the substantive policy per se - at least not all of it.

In this case, they are repealing only the mandate penalty and not enacting the other measures, all while filing the typical reconciliation process. I think that's why the senators might support it - narrower/smaller change after following correct process.
McCain's process complaints probably still apply, given that they want to try passing this thing by the end of the month.

And it looks like a no from Collins as well, who has correctly determined that repealing the mandate (with no other mechanism to replace it) will cause young, healthy people to leave the markets and rates to soar.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/collins-warns-gop-that-mandate-repeal-will-hike-premiums-slam-middle-class
burritos
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Thought experiment. If you liquidated the net worth of the top 1%, would that be enough money fund SSI and medicare for all indefinitely?
BearlyCareAnymore
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calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
They have the same issue with tax reform that they had with repealing Obamacare. Their proposals are polling very badly. So individual reps and senators need to ask themselves what is worse for them as individuals - this not passing and the republicans looking ineffective, or this passing and the individual taking the blame from their constituents. On the one hand, many republicans can sell this as a tax cut for their constituents. On the other hand, some will have to go back to their districts with a tax increase. For a handful of republicans, standing up to their party might be a better play.

I think this again pits establishment vs. Trumpists. Establishment republicans want corporate tax cuts. Trump wants corporate tax cuts. Big donors want corporate tax cuts. Trump voters don't give a damn about corporate tax cuts. If going into the 2018 elections all they have delivered is corporate tax cuts, good luck with that. Meanwhile, if the Democrats have any sense, they will run on "I'll give you back your home mortgage deduction, your SALT, your student loan deduction that the Republicans took from you." And if they are really smart they won't mention how to pay for that because no one cares about that when they vote. They should also dub this the "Suburban tax increase Bill". The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
calbear93
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burritos said:

Thought experiment. If you liquidated the net worth of the top 1%, would that be enough money fund SSI and medicare for all indefinitely?
No, but maybe the top 10%, including yours. That may do it.
dajo9
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wifeisafurd said:

dajo9 said:

wifeisafurd said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.



I can recall years of GOP complaints that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation and now they are doing the same thing with the tax bill.
Except it was always a lie that they were shut out of the Obamacare legislation. They refused to participate in any productive way.
Don't disagree. Noting the irony since there will be no Democratic input after the GOP did this.

Also, even more Senate changes per CNN:

The Senate tax overhaul plan underwent some big changes overnight.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, proposed a package of sweeping changes, including growing the child tax credit, reducing the tax rates for some income brackets, and reducing the tax penalty for not having health insurance to zero effectively eliminating the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate.
Also among the proposals: making nearly all of the tax changes for individuals temporary, while keeping major corporate changes permanent.

Dumb question: How do they make the corporate changes permanent and meet reconciliation requirements? Not being snarly I don't know the process.

A big part of how they permanently offset the corporate tax deduction is by making the tax brackets increase based on "chained CPI" rather than regular CPI. Chained CPI goes up more slowly and since the inflated increase in brackets reduces taxes, moving the brackets up more slowly is effectively a tax increase on everybody. Net result is a permanent corporate tax cut offset by a permanent across-the-board individual tax increase.

This is what passes for draining the swamp in some circles.
calbear93
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OaktownBear said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
They have the same issue with tax reform that they had with repealing Obamacare. Their proposals are polling very badly. So individual reps and senators need to ask themselves what is worse for them as individuals - this not passing and the republicans looking ineffective, or this passing and the individual taking the blame from their constituents. On the one hand, many republicans can sell this as a tax cut for their constituents. On the other hand, some will have to go back to their districts with a tax increase. For a handful of republicans, standing up to their party might be a better play.

I think this again pits establishment vs. Trumpists. Establishment republicans want corporate tax cuts. Trump wants corporate tax cuts. Big donors want corporate tax cuts. Trump voters don't give a damn about corporate tax cuts. If going into the 2018 elections all they have delivered is corporate tax cuts, good luck with that. Meanwhile, if the Democrats have any sense, they will run on "I'll give you back your home mortgage deduction, your SALT, your student loan deduction that the Republicans took from you." And if they are really smart they won't mention how to pay for that because no one cares about that when they vote. They should also dub this the "Suburban tax increase Bill". The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
I don't read it the same way you do. For most Trumpists, the doubling of the standard deduction will get rid of the effect of the SALT. Most of them do not have big enough deductions, even with SALT or mortgage deduction, to be impacted. The other higher income individuals living in the coast most likely will not believe that a Democrat would help them reduce their taxes when they kept hearing that they are not doing enough.

Now, if the Republicans don't do anything they promised to do, including reforming taxes, they might as well resign.
sycasey
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OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
calbear93
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sycasey said:

OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
What that represented to me is that certain portion of white, educated, suburban folks may vote for Trump when presented with a binary choice of voting for H. Clinton but are generally not aligned with Trump's divisive tactics. The nationalists platform (including from the right like Bannon or from left like Sanders) may play well in the South and certain parts of the Midwest, but it will not play well in the suburbs with more moderately-conservative independents. The Republicans will need to play the role of fiscal conservative with moderate, diverse global social values in the suburbs. Even before Trump and other than when faced with Clinton, many of the same folks in the suburbs would not have voted for Trump's nonsense and would have voted for Obama. Now, you bring a far left candidates in those suburbs again without the countering threat of nationalist bile, you will see it tilting to conservative again in the same districts.
sycasey
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calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
What that represented to me is that certain portion of white, educated, suburban folks may vote for Trump when presented with a binary choice of voting for H. Clinton but are generally not aligned with Trump's divisive tactics. The nationalists platform (including from the right like Bannon or from left like Sanders) may play well in the South and certain parts of the Midwest, but it will not play well in the suburbs with more moderately-conservative independents. The Republicans will need to play the role of fiscal conservative with moderate, diverse global social values in the suburbs. Even before Trump and other than when faced with Clinton, many of the same folks in the suburbs would not have voted for Trump's nonsense and would have voted for Obama. Now, you bring a far left candidates in those suburbs again without the countering threat of nationalist bile, you will see it tilting to conservative again in the same districts.
Unfortunately they seem to have convinced themselves that Trumpism is the way, judging by the way a formerly moderate establishment Republican (Gillespie) ran for governor in VA. And of course the other issue is that moderate conservatives now have a very hard time winning Republican primaries.

The GOP is stuck.
BearlyCareAnymore
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calbear93 said:

OaktownBear said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

GMP said:

sycasey said:

I think Republicans just guaranteed their tax bill will get zero Democratic votes.





Is it crazy to think this is a poison pill? The Senate tax bill got rid seemingly of all of the compromises the House came up with, and then repeals the individual mandate. This allows Senate Republicans to look like tax hawks, claim to have attempted to get rid of the mandate, but know that this thing won't pass. Or maybe it will and my thought is stupid. But this sure all seems fishy to me.
My thinking is that the goons in the House will pass whatever is pushed by leadership, so the Senate can't count on them to torpedo bad legislation.

That said, I'm not sure how this makes the same Republican Senators who killed the last Obamacare repeal efforts support this bill. What makes Collins, Murkowski, or McCain want to support this?
It would seem like a game of chicken. One thing that will unite the Republican congress members would be tax reform. If they were willing to kill healthcare reform as a stand-alone, would they also do so when tied to the tax reform? If they don't have the numbers, they will kill this but if they fail to pass any meaningful legislation (especially tax reform), they have proven themselves to be only good at blocking and complaining but not at leading and can kiss their majority good-bye. I think some form of tax reform is a given.
They have the same issue with tax reform that they had with repealing Obamacare. Their proposals are polling very badly. So individual reps and senators need to ask themselves what is worse for them as individuals - this not passing and the republicans looking ineffective, or this passing and the individual taking the blame from their constituents. On the one hand, many republicans can sell this as a tax cut for their constituents. On the other hand, some will have to go back to their districts with a tax increase. For a handful of republicans, standing up to their party might be a better play.

I think this again pits establishment vs. Trumpists. Establishment republicans want corporate tax cuts. Trump wants corporate tax cuts. Big donors want corporate tax cuts. Trump voters don't give a damn about corporate tax cuts. If going into the 2018 elections all they have delivered is corporate tax cuts, good luck with that. Meanwhile, if the Democrats have any sense, they will run on "I'll give you back your home mortgage deduction, your SALT, your student loan deduction that the Republicans took from you." And if they are really smart they won't mention how to pay for that because no one cares about that when they vote. They should also dub this the "Suburban tax increase Bill". The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
I don't read it the same way you do. For most Trumpists, the doubling of the standard deduction will get rid of the effect of the SALT. Most of them do not have big enough deductions, even with SALT or mortgage deduction, to be impacted. The other higher income individuals living in the coast most likely will not believe that a Democrat would help them reduce their taxes when they kept hearing that they are not doing enough.

Now, if the Republicans don't do anything they promised to do, including reforming taxes, they might as well resign.


My point about Trumpists is not that they are mad about the tax plan. It is that they don't care about corporate tax cuts. Does nothing for them. The republicans will essentially still have delivered nothing to them. This is an establishment play.

My point about SALT/mortgage/student loans is those deductions are important to suburban voters.
BearlyCareAnymore
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calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
What that represented to me is that certain portion of white, educated, suburban folks may vote for Trump when presented with a binary choice of voting for H. Clinton but are generally not aligned with Trump's divisive tactics. The nationalists platform (including from the right like Bannon or from left like Sanders) may play well in the South and certain parts of the Midwest, but it will not play well in the suburbs with more moderately-conservative independents. The Republicans will need to play the role of fiscal conservative with moderate, diverse global social values in the suburbs. Even before Trump and other than when faced with Clinton, many of the same folks in the suburbs would not have voted for Trump's nonsense and would have voted for Obama. Now, you bring a far left candidates in those suburbs again without the countering threat of nationalist bile, you will see it tilting to conservative again in the same districts.
Don't disagree with a lot of this, but definitely disagree with the word "again" in the last sentence. Hillary is not a far left candidate. She is a dishonest candidate that had a ton of baggage and that the left was unenthusiastic about. I'm not saying my pick to win the suburbs would be to go far left (it wouldn't be). But the mistake for Democrats last election was not picking a far left candidate. It was picking Clinton. Polling from counties that flipped from Obama to Trump or that moved significantly toward the Republicans between Romney and Trump has for quite a while shown favorability ratings that look like Obama>>>Sanders>Generic Republican>Trump>>>>>>>Clinton. I'm not saying that is what appeals to suburban counties, but I think you underestimate the problem that Republicans will have there if they are not careful.

I grew up in a highly educated, affluent, suburban county. All of my childhood it was Republican. When the Republicans went socially conservative, culminating in Reagan, they lost that county forever. It had been a fiscally conservative, socially moderate area for the most part, that usually voted pocketbook. Once the Republicans lost on the social issues, it snowballed into a fiscally left of center, socially liberal area.

People with college educations do not like dividing people based on intrinsic traits. Suburbia is becoming more and more educated - harder to get in without that degree. They aren't socially liberal, but they aren't socially conservative either. Trump is an anchor there. And their two most important issues are their house and their kids' education. Why the Republicans would hit those deductions, I can't fathom.

It's not just Virginia. Republicans have been underperforming in the suburbs in almost every election since last November.
Anarchistbear
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The suburbs have been fertile for the Democrats since Bill Clinton. The win in Virginia for Governor was no big deal-Clinton carried those districts. What was a big deal was the energy and wins down market, not only in Virginia but in other states, many by newcomers- socialists, transgenders, people of color- who might portend a grass roots movement for change. Let's hope it extends to the party leadership.

The suburbs themselves are not going to win the Presidency back- Trump won the suburbs, Romney won the suburbs, Obama won the suburbs but they weren't game changers. What was game changing was the working class white vote, the rural vote and Clinton's inability to match Obama's strength with minorities and young people. She also underperformed in the suburbs.
calbear93
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OaktownBear said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
What that represented to me is that certain portion of white, educated, suburban folks may vote for Trump when presented with a binary choice of voting for H. Clinton but are generally not aligned with Trump's divisive tactics. The nationalists platform (including from the right like Bannon or from left like Sanders) may play well in the South and certain parts of the Midwest, but it will not play well in the suburbs with more moderately-conservative independents. The Republicans will need to play the role of fiscal conservative with moderate, diverse global social values in the suburbs. Even before Trump and other than when faced with Clinton, many of the same folks in the suburbs would not have voted for Trump's nonsense and would have voted for Obama. Now, you bring a far left candidates in those suburbs again without the countering threat of nationalist bile, you will see it tilting to conservative again in the same districts.
Don't disagree with a lot of this, but definitely disagree with the word "again" in the last sentence. Hillary is not a far left candidate. She is a dishonest candidate that had a ton of baggage and that the left was unenthusiastic about. I'm not saying my pick to win the suburbs would be to go far left (it wouldn't be). But the mistake for Democrats last election was not picking a far left candidate. It was picking Clinton. Polling from counties that flipped from Obama to Trump or that moved significantly toward the Republicans between Romney and Trump has for quite a while shown favorability ratings that look like Obama>>>Sanders>Generic Republican>Trump>>>>>>>Clinton. I'm not saying that is what appeals to suburban counties, but I think you underestimate the problem that Republicans will have there if they are not careful.

I grew up in a highly educated, affluent, suburban county. All of my childhood it was Republican. When the Republicans went socially conservative, culminating in Reagan, they lost that county forever. It had been a fiscally conservative, socially moderate area for the most part, that usually voted pocketbook. Once the Republicans lost on the social issues, it snowballed into a fiscally left of center, socially liberal area.

People with college educations do not like dividing people based on intrinsic traits. Suburbia is becoming more and more educated - harder to get in without that degree. They aren't socially liberal, but they aren't socially conservative either. Trump is an anchor there. And their two most important issues are their house and their kids' education. Why the Republicans would hit those deductions, I can't fathom.

It's not just Virginia. Republicans have been underperforming in the suburbs in almost every election since last November.
There were a lot of things that I didn't like about Clinton, but it wasn't that she was far left. Far left would have been Sanders, and I think Sanders and Trump would have been a nationalist, populist election, and I would have stayed home and not voted. When I think about far left, I think Sanders and more and more Warren (although from an intellectual standpoint, I think Warren far outshines Sanders). I strongly doubt far left social platform will play well in most suburbs. I just have a hard time believing that white picket fence soccer moms and white collar office dads with 2 kids will not tilt toward moderate conservative and I strongly doubt that Sanders and Warren would have done better than Biden, Bullock, or Cuomo in the suburbs.

I grew up in a typical blue-collar middle to low-middle class neighborhood, and I know that, even more than fiscal values, ready-made sounds bites handed to the Republicans by some loonies on the left will turn people to voting conservative way more often than stupid statements by some loonies on the right. You have to be a pragmatist like Clinton or inspirational like Obama to win the suburbs. It has very little to do with economic policies, since most of my childhood friends' blue-collar parents believed that their social standings were temporary and they wanted to protect the "American Dream" and hated socialism and communism (viewed as traitors) way more than they hated conspicuous and selfish rich capitalists. I also live and have lived most of my adult life in mostly affluent neighborhoods with middle-aged professional parents with young kids. While most of my friends and neighborhoods are socially moderate (with tilting toward conservative as they have kids), they are turned off just as I am by the racism and bigotry of Trump and Bannon as well as those of the left masked as identity politics. And they are afraid of the weakening of the basic social values. Many of my non-Christian friends struggle with the loonies from the Trump base and loonies from the Sanders base and they do struggle with understanding who has the potential to do the most long-lasting harm. To think that they are becoming socially liberal is misreading everything I have experienced (maybe because I don't live in Oakland). I also know that they are generally fiscally conservative. I would fall under that camp other than for my religion that ensures that I would never ever be a Democrat (mainly because the Democratic party has no room or tolerance for fundamental Christians).

As such, I wouldn't count my chickens yet, and the Democrats better hope that they don't react by making the craziness of Republicans (especially with Trump) seem potentially less risky than craziness of Democrats (putting forth impeachment papers that will never get picked up is an example).
calbear93
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sycasey said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
What that represented to me is that certain portion of white, educated, suburban folks may vote for Trump when presented with a binary choice of voting for H. Clinton but are generally not aligned with Trump's divisive tactics. The nationalists platform (including from the right like Bannon or from left like Sanders) may play well in the South and certain parts of the Midwest, but it will not play well in the suburbs with more moderately-conservative independents. The Republicans will need to play the role of fiscal conservative with moderate, diverse global social values in the suburbs. Even before Trump and other than when faced with Clinton, many of the same folks in the suburbs would not have voted for Trump's nonsense and would have voted for Obama. Now, you bring a far left candidates in those suburbs again without the countering threat of nationalist bile, you will see it tilting to conservative again in the same districts.
Unfortunately they seem to have convinced themselves that Trumpism is the way, judging by the way a formerly moderate establishment Republican (Gillespie) ran for governor in VA. And of course the other issue is that moderate conservatives now have a very hard time winning Republican primaries.

The GOP is stuck.
I don't disagree with this. The primaries are killing the GOP and the sanity of our party.
sycasey
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calbear93 said:

OaktownBear said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
What that represented to me is that certain portion of white, educated, suburban folks may vote for Trump when presented with a binary choice of voting for H. Clinton but are generally not aligned with Trump's divisive tactics. The nationalists platform (including from the right like Bannon or from left like Sanders) may play well in the South and certain parts of the Midwest, but it will not play well in the suburbs with more moderately-conservative independents. The Republicans will need to play the role of fiscal conservative with moderate, diverse global social values in the suburbs. Even before Trump and other than when faced with Clinton, many of the same folks in the suburbs would not have voted for Trump's nonsense and would have voted for Obama. Now, you bring a far left candidates in those suburbs again without the countering threat of nationalist bile, you will see it tilting to conservative again in the same districts.
Don't disagree with a lot of this, but definitely disagree with the word "again" in the last sentence. Hillary is not a far left candidate. She is a dishonest candidate that had a ton of baggage and that the left was unenthusiastic about. I'm not saying my pick to win the suburbs would be to go far left (it wouldn't be). But the mistake for Democrats last election was not picking a far left candidate. It was picking Clinton. Polling from counties that flipped from Obama to Trump or that moved significantly toward the Republicans between Romney and Trump has for quite a while shown favorability ratings that look like Obama>>>Sanders>Generic Republican>Trump>>>>>>>Clinton. I'm not saying that is what appeals to suburban counties, but I think you underestimate the problem that Republicans will have there if they are not careful.

I grew up in a highly educated, affluent, suburban county. All of my childhood it was Republican. When the Republicans went socially conservative, culminating in Reagan, they lost that county forever. It had been a fiscally conservative, socially moderate area for the most part, that usually voted pocketbook. Once the Republicans lost on the social issues, it snowballed into a fiscally left of center, socially liberal area.

People with college educations do not like dividing people based on intrinsic traits. Suburbia is becoming more and more educated - harder to get in without that degree. They aren't socially liberal, but they aren't socially conservative either. Trump is an anchor there. And their two most important issues are their house and their kids' education. Why the Republicans would hit those deductions, I can't fathom.

It's not just Virginia. Republicans have been underperforming in the suburbs in almost every election since last November.
There were a lot of things that I didn't like about Clinton, but it wasn't that she was far left. Far left would have been Sanders, and I think Sanders and Trump would have been a nationalist, populist election, and I would have stayed home and not voted. When I think about far left, I think Sanders and more and more Warren (although from an intellectual standpoint, I think Warren far outshines Sanders). I strongly doubt far left social platform will play well in most suburbs. I just have a hard time believing that white picket fence soccer moms and white collar office dads with 2 kids will not tilt toward moderate conservative and I strongly doubt that Sanders and Warren would have done better than Biden, Bullock, or Cuomo in the suburbs.

I predict that they will tilt moderate liberal in the coming decade. Not so much because of anything Democrats or Republicans do right now (well, maybe somewhat due to what Trump is doing now), but because of how the generations will age up. Those family areas will start to be populated by Millennials who came of age supporting Obama.

Republicans might win them back, but it will take a move back towards the left, not playing to the Trump-loving base.
calbear93
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sycasey said:

calbear93 said:

OaktownBear said:

calbear93 said:

sycasey said:

OaktownBear said:

The Democrats are in a position to really make advances in suburban America, and this tax bill falls into their hands if they have the sense to capitalize (which they probably don't, they are Democrats)
FWIW, Democrats have made major gains in state elections in suburban districts during the Trump era (the big win in Virginia was pretty much based on that). So we have already seen it happen.
What that represented to me is that certain portion of white, educated, suburban folks may vote for Trump when presented with a binary choice of voting for H. Clinton but are generally not aligned with Trump's divisive tactics. The nationalists platform (including from the right like Bannon or from left like Sanders) may play well in the South and certain parts of the Midwest, but it will not play well in the suburbs with more moderately-conservative independents. The Republicans will need to play the role of fiscal conservative with moderate, diverse global social values in the suburbs. Even before Trump and other than when faced with Clinton, many of the same folks in the suburbs would not have voted for Trump's nonsense and would have voted for Obama. Now, you bring a far left candidates in those suburbs again without the countering threat of nationalist bile, you will see it tilting to conservative again in the same districts.
Don't disagree with a lot of this, but definitely disagree with the word "again" in the last sentence. Hillary is not a far left candidate. She is a dishonest candidate that had a ton of baggage and that the left was unenthusiastic about. I'm not saying my pick to win the suburbs would be to go far left (it wouldn't be). But the mistake for Democrats last election was not picking a far left candidate. It was picking Clinton. Polling from counties that flipped from Obama to Trump or that moved significantly toward the Republicans between Romney and Trump has for quite a while shown favorability ratings that look like Obama>>>Sanders>Generic Republican>Trump>>>>>>>Clinton. I'm not saying that is what appeals to suburban counties, but I think you underestimate the problem that Republicans will have there if they are not careful.

I grew up in a highly educated, affluent, suburban county. All of my childhood it was Republican. When the Republicans went socially conservative, culminating in Reagan, they lost that county forever. It had been a fiscally conservative, socially moderate area for the most part, that usually voted pocketbook. Once the Republicans lost on the social issues, it snowballed into a fiscally left of center, socially liberal area.

People with college educations do not like dividing people based on intrinsic traits. Suburbia is becoming more and more educated - harder to get in without that degree. They aren't socially liberal, but they aren't socially conservative either. Trump is an anchor there. And their two most important issues are their house and their kids' education. Why the Republicans would hit those deductions, I can't fathom.

It's not just Virginia. Republicans have been underperforming in the suburbs in almost every election since last November.
There were a lot of things that I didn't like about Clinton, but it wasn't that she was far left. Far left would have been Sanders, and I think Sanders and Trump would have been a nationalist, populist election, and I would have stayed home and not voted. When I think about far left, I think Sanders and more and more Warren (although from an intellectual standpoint, I think Warren far outshines Sanders). I strongly doubt far left social platform will play well in most suburbs. I just have a hard time believing that white picket fence soccer moms and white collar office dads with 2 kids will not tilt toward moderate conservative and I strongly doubt that Sanders and Warren would have done better than Biden, Bullock, or Cuomo in the suburbs.

I predict that they will tilt moderate liberal in the coming decade. Not so much because of anything Democrats or Republicans do right now (well, maybe somewhat due to what Trump is doing now), but because of how the generations will age up. Those family areas will start to be populated by Millennials who came of age supporting Obama.

Republicans might win them back, but it will take a move back towards the left, not playing to the Trump-loving base.
What happen to those who were inspired by JFK? Did they become more liberal or more conservative as they aged and acquired wealth?
 
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