And the Official Census Data for the 2018 Election Came Out Today:Quote:
The November 2018 election is widely recognized for its high voter turnout. Census Bureau data released today show who is behind the historic 11 percentage point increase from the last midterm election in 2014.
Voter turnout went up among all voting age and major racial and ethnic groups. Fifty-three percent of the citizen voting-age population voted in 2018, the highest midterm turnout in four decades, while the 2014 election had the lowest.
Quote:
Who is Behind the Historic Increase?
Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018:
- Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group a 79 percent jump.
- Among men and women, voter turnout increased by 11 and 12 percentage points respectively.
- Voter turnout increased among non-Hispanic Asians by 13 percentage points, a 49 percent increase.
- Among Hispanics, voter turnout increased by 13 percentage points, a 50 percent increase in Hispanic voter turnout.
- Non-Hispanic black voter turnout increased by 11 percentage points.
- Those with higher levels of education had higher levels of voter turnout in 2018. Those with less than a high school education had the smallest increase in voter turnout (5 percentage points). Those with a high school diploma or equivalent had the second-lowest increase (8 percentage points).
- Voting by native-born and naturalized citizens both increased by 12 percentage points. This increase is not significantly different between native-born and naturalized citizens.
- Unlike the 2014 midterm election, voter turnout among those living in nonmetropolitan areas (up 8 points) was lower than for those living in metropolitan areas (up 12 points).
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.htmlPretty much all demographics voted more, the number of younger voters drastically increased while the number of urban voters outpaced the rural voters (indicating an enthusiasm gap).
A couple of my own thoughts:
1. Voter turnout was still pathetic and we should be ashamed of ourselves as a country for being so indifferent. Anything short of 80% is disappointing.
2. The report outlined the percentage increases for rural and metropolitan areas, but I don't know if the percentage accurately reflects the change in number of voters, as only 20% of America lives in rural areas. Simplifying it, if you have a 1,000 people, there would be 800 urban voters and 200 rural voters, so a 12% increase of 800 is 96 whereas 8% of 200 is 16. That seems pretty significant.
3. I also wonder how much this increased voter turnout is localized (hence relevant). If San Francisco increases their voter turnout of minority college educated young people by 500% (I made that number up) it doesn't really change anything nationally, but if a swing district in Orange County increases a key voter demographic turnout by 10%, it could sway an election.
4. I wonder if election and news fatigue sets in, reducing the enthusiasm advantage by 2020. I speculate the initial enthusiasm may lag, but everyone rallies to set a record high for voter turnout in my lifetime.