The residential housing problem

15,742 Views | 181 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by going4roses
wifeisafurd
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My last visit to The City or East Bay was the Big Game last year. I have been to speak in the Peninsula (they actually let Cal grads speak at Furd symposiums) and didn't really see the homelessness that is so pervasive in Los Angles and San Diego and other urban areas in SoCal. So homelessness may be less of an issue in the Bay Area, but is huge down in SoCal, even in the OC. The problem here is more and more people are falling into homelessness as prices rise, the apartment stock has diminished over time, and there is a Pandora's box ready to open as discussed below.


As a result of several ballot measures approved by LA voters in the past few years, the city and the county spent hundreds of millions of dollars last year to address the homeless crisis. But the number of people living without shelter still went up 12% in the county and 16% in the city. Homelessness among youth and children rose 24% over the previous year. Per the LA Times of the nearly 60,000 people who are homeless in LA County, 19% told officials they came to LA County from out of state, 15% said they arrived from another part of California and 1.2% said they came from outside the United States. Why? Los Angeles had money to help them (at least in theory). While the homeless count in Los Angeles was shocking, the rise in homelessness in neighboring counties was equally bracing. Homelessness was up 40% in Ventura County, another county which embraces homelessness financially.

At the root of what is a very complex problem is the fact that many within LA's unsheltered population are grappling with substance abuse addictions and untreated mental illness, and families, have moved to tent cities generally into underpasses or protected areas in safer, often affluent areas. LA city and county policy, tent-dwellers are required to take down their tents during daylight hours to clear the streets for pedestrians and business owners. But because of the lawsuits, that policy is not being uniformly enforced. In most areas it does not appear to be enforced at all.

The lawsuits and court injunctions against LA have had other unintended consequences. Because of the proliferation of tents cities, police say, it is much harder to identify and halt drug dealing and human trafficking. The legal battles have also complicated the city's ability to clear trash-strewn streets, because it is not easy to identify what bedding, clothing or other property might belong to an "unsheltered" person living nearby.

However the bottom line is this has galvanized homeowner and business groups of people of different political persuasions, that in no way want any of these unsheltered people (homelessness in not PC to the West LA crowd) around or more density, and have the money and anger to delay new housing projects in their area, even those just built by government, for long periods of time, through CEQA or other methods. You certainly don't want to be a private developer (or anyone providing lending or capital) facing this type opposition.


So for long term action (not shelters) the government action should be to encourage increasing the supply of housing and retrofitting as much old housing as possible, to increase supply and bring down housing prices and in particular with respect to retrofits in not so upscale areas, affordable housing, right? Also greater density cuts down on commutes for those that are forced to live way out due to high prices in closer suburban and inner city areas, right? And that probably means subsidies because of the high cost to build or rehab housing in LA.

So housing experts (like UCLA) say that to help homeless individuals move into subsidized housing, we need to make sure there is enough housing to begin with. "Developing more affordable housing units doesn't just help homeless families and individuals make the transition into homes, it makes it easier for them to stay there after the rental assistance ends. As a region, LA is building about 20,000 units of affordable housing a year over the last 30 years, but L.A. should have been building more than 55,000 units a year to keep pace with growth. This disparity is partly fueling the homelessness crisis that we are experiencing now." (UCLA study).


Well housing starts (people pulling permits) last month were down 20% in the state, primary due to Los Angeles County having a drop pf 30%, over the same month last year. So when you talk to housing advocates, it is all about increasing supply, mainstreaming and government intervention in a positive way.

And then the Pandor's Box. About 30 years ago, the LA Redevelopment Agency made a huge effort to deal with then downtown homelessness, by funding a huge number of projects with tax-exempt financing. The developer got cheap financing in exchange for 30 years of rent control. As today, this was fee based development, as the developer, lawyers, consultants got paid their fees out of the financing, since after debt service and expenses, there was no future profit. until decontrol rents, decades later. The developer hired a management entity, often times a public (or quasi public) or non-profit entity to rent and operate the apartments and deal with the often onerous regulations of dealing with government regulations and subsidized tenants. Well guess what? You now have around 100,000 units that are about to become market rentals over the next couple years. So the money that was supposed to go to new projects is being used to induce the owners to these older projects to agree to not raise rents.

to be continued.





.



wifeisafurd
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So LA is thinking about building new projects on existing government land, and taking bids for projects from private developers. It doesn't cost the governments cash which they are spending elsewhere, and hopefully the numbers work with the idea of not charging the developer rent on the land. But remember there is no profit in a totally subidized project until decontrol occurs decades later, and no less costly tax-exempt financing for the vertical costs. So what LA is dong is saying to developers, you can have a certain numbers of units be decontrolled. This actually makes sense for this type of development, And LA wants to put these projects in different areas in order to mainstream the tenants. This is a response to horrible urban renewal "projects" owned by the government in ghetto areas. The best practices is to mix subsidized tenants with regular tenants and not force all the projects in one area, and have it run by private parties. This avoids crime, stigmatizing residents and a lot of other problems. This is a long discussion, but if you ask experts there is fairly uniform agreement this is what you need to achieve success people wise.

What is also does is trigger community opposition that probably will cost Garcetti his job, and scare private equity away. There likely is no public money since redevelopment agencies were raided and eliminated by Brown, unless the State steps in with a State Bond issue. There no longer is a local mechanism for financing.

The other side of this for experts is that you simply need to increase the number of housing units in LA. since it is so difficult to get anyone interested in low income housing. So you would think LA would encourage new apartment rentals of all kinds. Well, if anything, higher density uses are subjectt to more regulation, scrutiny and are not favored by neighborhood councils (another stupid hurdle pushed by a bunch of academics). And then LA is considering adding a requirement that a certain number of units be under the low income controls even for regular apartment projects (the rent reduction stings the developer, but being subject to the whole regulatory scheme is a non-starter for developers that don't know area). Now new applications for apartment buildings are plummeting.

To make it worse, LA has now said one of the best way to prevent homelessness is by helping renters stay in their homes. They started funding a right to counsel program, without any parameters on tenant behavior, and have legislation pending for stronger tenant protections. At this point no one knows what those rights will be leading to uncertainty. Again, not a great way to attract apartment development capital.

I'm not suggesting that LA and other jurisdictions are acting with bad intentions, but market forces really don't care about intentions. Much of this homelessness problem has been brought about and will get worse due to ill-conceived public policy, neglect, and lack of planning. LA knew there was a day of reckoning coming with the soon to be decontrolled units, and did nothing.

Edit: IMO, locals are just overrun by the problem and this is not gong to get better except by State intervention.
Another Bear
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Have to increase inventory, as every expert has said. To do that, start with these.

A) Kill the mortgage deduction for 2nd/vacation homes
B) Cap or kill foreign real estate investments, money laundering, parking assets
C) Fine vacant housing units (likely due to #B)
D) Fund massive amounts of public housing...just like after WWII
E) Bring back redevelopment agencies, killed off the '08 recession

Right now Oakland is undergoing massive building of apartments. The old Biff's lot is now a 500 unit complex. There's at least 20 other large residential apartments under construction...a couple taking up whole blocks and 5-6 stories high. The problem is, they're all market rate, i.e., $3k for a 1-bed. This wouldn't be problem except wages haven't kept up with market rate housing.

Nothing changes until there's enough housing units. Take care of that and the social issues become easier to handle, but still tough.
sp4149
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I wouldn't lump San Diego (Arizona's Seaport) in with SoCal for purposes of this discussion.
City and County have been pretty aggressive on the homeless. Lately they have been going out
after people living in their RVs, Campers, cars, etc... by outlawing overnight parking in most urban areas.

San Diego also has a long tradition of unapproved housing units in residential areas. I worked with a guy who had a 1200SF house on a small lot. He built a rental on top of his garage, filled his backyard with two 400SF shotgun style rentals. HIs rentals turned him a nice profit and his house and rentals totaling about 2600sf in a high crime neighborhood were worth 40% more than my 3200sf house in a low crime area. In older areas these under-the-radar housing units are have proliferated.

Long time beach residents recently tried to limit 'vacation' rentals of houses in residential areas. Hotels and local governments supported the idea as hotel taxes are the major source of local government income. The idea failed in the face of massive opposition by local property owners who wanted to be able to rent space in their homes without government oversight or paying business taxes. SD local governments lost control a long time ago. They are also incapable of providing meaningful solutions the homeless situation. Normally they adopt a plan for homeless housing far away from the downtown core with food banks and prime panhandling corners. With our mild winters, local planners were surprised that the homeless would prefer to be closer to food than shelter.

And then we have tens of thousands of Mexican citizens, working in San Diego during the week and returning home on weekends. Technically not homeless, these workers are crowding into low income housing on weeknights to avoid lengthy border crossing delays. This is probably a unique to San Diego problem, made worse the last two years by Trump's border policies.

Overall San Diego is only slightly sympatico with the homeless if they are Vets, and even then not all of the time. We seem to be the dumping ground for Vets who can't return to civilian life. WE could use help from the Feds, but don't expect to get much.
bearister
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Walnut Creek OKs homeless safe parking program at church

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eastbaytimes.com/2019/08/09/planning-commission-approves-overnight-car-sleeping-program-for-homeless-residents-in-walnut-creek/amp/

The Diocese of Oakland will get sued back to the Stone Age if anything goes sideways with this plan.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention

“I love Cal deeply. What are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
going4roses
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Very interesting and intriguing discussion wife. As I enter my final yr as an undergrad in SF state's Urban Studies & Planning program this discussion hits home on several fronts, as a lifelong resident of Oakland(born at Alta Bates GO Bears) the changes I have witnessed and experienced will eventually be the foundation for my dissertation research/policy change. I love my city but I now feel like I am outlier/outlaw due to my class (non property owner/considered to be not a rational autonomous individual) and my race. Just last week I was downtown in Oakland around lunch time and felt unsafe/uneasy. People like me are being excluded from public & private spaces as well as the POPOS for example at the 12th BART station leading to the Federal building/plaza.

We ( the state ) slowed down the rate of building residential housing after Prop 13 and since the ratio of DU's to the states population were in crash course. Now we have people making 15.00 per hour competing for housing with those making 100k. Not a good look. Being homeless or being on the verge of being homeless will cause mental illness issues.
How (are) you gonna win when you ain’t right within…
socaliganbear
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Where are you getting 20k of new units for LA?
concordtom
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A topic in need of understanding and discussion.

I have half a head to believe that the problem will only become worse in the USA over time. And NOT because of Mexican immigrants, which the Right likes to think is the cause.

No, the USA has a $21T debt, growing at $1T per year doing good economic years.

Interest rates are low now, but if they rise, the USA will be forced to commit an ever increasing portion of the annual budget to interest on the debt. This will suck money from other sources of GDP, aiding recessionary forces.

Not to mention that if we are to actually BALANCE the budget (what a concept!) the GDP will suffer.

Whenever GDP suffers, homelessness increases.

And if (when!) our level of debt, fueled by massive deficit spending which we are addicted to, causes the US Dollar to decline in stature, homelessness will increase as well.

We Americans tend to take for granted an economic state similar to the 50's and/or 80's. But the truth is that we live in a world of 7 billion people, and the average level of wealth is not impressive. Reversion to mean.
Unit2Sucks
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concordtom said:



No, the USA has a $21T debt, growing at $1T per year doing good economic years.

Interest rates are low now, but if they rise, the USA will be forced to commit an ever increasing portion of the annual budget to interest on the debt. This will suck money from other sources of GDP, aiding recessionary forces.



This is why I am betting on low interest rates for the foreseeable future. We aren't going back up to a federal funds rate of 5% and somewhere around 3% is probably the ceiling.
GBear4Life
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going4roses said:

I love my city but I now feel like I am outlier/outlaw due to my class (non property owner/considered to be not a rational autonomous individual) and my race. Just last week I was downtown in Oakland around lunch time and felt unsafe/uneasy. People like me are being excluded from public & private spaces as well as the POPOS for example at the 12th BART station leading to the Federal building/plaza.
Uncomfortable in Oakland? So you're white?

Quote:

Being homeless or being on the verge of being homeless will cause mental illness issues.
No it doesn't.
GBear4Life
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Another Bear said:

Have to increase inventory, as every expert has said. To do that, start with these.

A) Kill the mortgage deduction for 2nd/vacation homes
B) Cap or kill foreign real estate investments, money laundering, parking assets
C) Fine vacant housing units (likely due to #B)
D) Fund massive amounts of public housing...just like after WWII
E) Bring back redevelopment agencies, killed off the '08 recession

Right now Oakland is undergoing massive building of apartments. The old Biff's lot is now a 500 unit complex. There's at least 20 other large residential apartments under construction...a couple taking up whole blocks and 5-6 stories high. The problem is, they're all market rate, i.e., $3k for a 1-bed. This wouldn't be problem except wages haven't kept up with market rate housing.

Nothing changes until there's enough housing units. Take care of that and the social issues become easier to handle, but still tough.
Home ownership rates are at 50 year lows IIRC. Hedge funds swallowed up so many properties after the crash.

Must curb mass purchase of residential investment properties.
going4roses
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GBear4Life said:

going4roses said:

I love my city but I now feel like I am outlier/outlaw due to my class (non property owner/considered to be not a rational autonomous individual) and my race. Just last week I was downtown in Oakland around lunch time and felt unsafe/uneasy. People like me are being excluded from public & private spaces as well as the POPOS for example at the 12th BART station leading to the Federal building/plaza.
Uncomfortable in Oakland? So you're white?



Quote:

Being homeless or being on the verge of being homeless will cause mental illness issues.
No it doesn't.
.

Where is your evidence/proof/empirical data that proves this? Or you have been homeless which one is it? I get it if you admit this point your whole shtick is up. Tough to swallow is it? Off you go?
How (are) you gonna win when you ain’t right within…
GBear4Life
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where is yours? Being on the verge of homelessness causes "mental illness"? Ok.
dajo9
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Mental illness is mostly believed to be caused by a number of "hits" including genetics, trauma, childhood dysfunction, and maybe extreme drug use. Homelessness can definitely be considered a trauma.

I would rate both of you as partially correct.
FuzzyWuzzy
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wifeisafurd said:

My last visit to The City or East Bay was the Big Game last year. I have been to speak in the Peninsula (they actually let Cal grads speak at Furd symposiums) and didn't really see the homelessness that is so pervasive in Los Angles and San Diego and other urban areas in SoCal. So homelessness may be less of an issue in the Bay Area, but is huge down in SoCal, even in the OC. The problem here is more and more people are falling into homelessness as prices rise, the apartment stock has diminished over time, and there is a Pandora's box ready to open as discussed below.


As a result of several ballot measures approved by LA voters in the past few years, the city and the county spent hundreds of millions of dollars last year to address the homeless crisis. But the number of people living without shelter still went up 12% in the county and 16% in the city. Homelessness among youth and children rose 24% over the previous year. Per the LA Times of the nearly 60,000 people who are homeless in LA County, 19% told officials they came to LA County from out of state, 15% said they arrived from another part of California and 1.2% said they came from outside the United States. Why? Los Angeles had money to help them (at least in theory). While the homeless count in Los Angeles was shocking, the rise in homelessness in neighboring counties was equally bracing. Homelessness was up 40% in Ventura County, another county which embraces homelessness financially.

At the root of what is a very complex problem is the fact that many within LA's unsheltered population are grappling with substance abuse addictions and untreated mental illness, and families, have moved to tent cities generally into underpasses or protected areas in safer, often affluent areas. LA city and county policy, tent-dwellers are required to take down their tents during daylight hours to clear the streets for pedestrians and business owners. But because of the lawsuits, that policy is not being uniformly enforced. In most areas it does not appear to be enforced at all.

The lawsuits and court injunctions against LA have had other unintended consequences. Because of the proliferation of tents cities, police say, it is much harder to identify and halt drug dealing and human trafficking. The legal battles have also complicated the city's ability to clear trash-strewn streets, because it is not easy to identify what bedding, clothing or other property might belong to an "unsheltered" person living nearby.

However the bottom line is this has galvanized homeowner and business groups of people of different political persuasions, that in no way want any of these unsheltered people (homelessness in not PC to the West LA crowd) around or more density, and have the money and anger to delay new housing projects in their area, even those just built by government, for long periods of time, through CEQA or other methods. You certainly don't want to be a private developer (or anyone providing lending or capital) facing this type opposition.


So for long term action (not shelters) the government action should be to encourage increasing the supply of housing and retrofitting as much old housing as possible, to increase supply and bring down housing prices and in particular with respect to retrofits in not so upscale areas, affordable housing, right? Also greater density cuts down on commutes for those that are forced to live way out due to high prices in closer suburban and inner city areas, right? And that probably means subsidies because of the high cost to build or rehab housing in LA.

So housing experts (like UCLA) say that to help homeless individuals move into subsidized housing, we need to make sure there is enough housing to begin with. "Developing more affordable housing units doesn't just help homeless families and individuals make the transition into homes, it makes it easier for them to stay there after the rental assistance ends. As a region, LA is building about 20,000 units of affordable housing a year over the last 30 years, but L.A. should have been building more than 55,000 units a year to keep pace with growth. This disparity is partly fueling the homelessness crisis that we are experiencing now." (UCLA study).


Well housing starts (people pulling permits) last month were down 20% in the state, primary due to Los Angeles County having a drop pf 30%, over the same month last year. So when you talk to housing advocates, it is all about increasing supply, mainstreaming and government intervention in a positive way.

And then the Pandor's Box. About 30 years ago, the LA Redevelopment Agency made a huge effort to deal with then downtown homelessness, by funding a huge number of projects with tax-exempt financing. The developer got cheap financing in exchange for 30 years of rent control. As today, this was fee based development, as the developer, lawyers, consultants got paid their fees out of the financing, since after debt service and expenses, there was no future profit. until decontrol rents, decades later. The developer hired a management entity, often times a public (or quasi public) or non-profit entity to rent and operate the apartments and deal with the often onerous regulations of dealing with government regulations and subsidized tenants. Well guess what? You now have around 100,000 units that are about to become market rentals over the next couple years. So the money that was supposed to go to new projects is being used to induce the owners to these older projects to agree to not raise rents.

to be continued.





.




Forgive me if you covered these points, but I do see a couple of issues that aren't given enough discussion. There are way too many homeless in our state's urban centers, and they are overrunning the system. My first point is that some of them need to be relocated. I don't believe anyone has the right to live wherever they want. If I grow up in Beverly Hills but I work as a liquor store clerk, I'm not going to be able to afford to rent in Beverly Hills, even if I consider it my spiritual home. It's not my right. I'll have to relocate elsewhere. The homeless in Oakland, SF and LA do not have an inherent right to live in those cities. Most should be asked to move elsewhere, especially if they desire government subsidies for their housing. The subsidized housing should be spread out geographically.

Virtually all of the public dollars going to subsidize housing are going to those who are pretty poor or really poor - usually with incomes in the range of 30% - 60% of area median income. I think this is wrong. Some of the public subsidy needs to go to moderate income folks who earn 60% - 120% of median income for the area. Some of the affordable projects going up in Oakland and San Francisco have development costs at like $800K per unit. Why are we throwing all the public money to subsidize the very poor when the moderately poor cannot afford rents, either? The moderately poor (above 60% AMI) do not qualify to rent any of these subsidized (and rent-restricted) units. By the way, the waiting lists for these units are out the door and down the block. One family gets the $800K subsidized unit and everyone else in line gets nothing. How is that fair, or good policy?

Finally, we need to make big investments in mental health care and substance abuse treatment in order to get some of the chronically homeless to be not-so-chronically homeless. Some years ago, the Zurich main train station was overrun by homelessness and crime. There were drug dealers and drug addicts; it was unsafe and the regular population avoided that area. A new mayor came in and announced a plan. The government would go to the homeless population one by one and assess them. If you are a drug dealer, you go to jail. If you are a drug addict, you go into treatment. If you are mentally ill, you go into mental health treatment. And if you are just down on your luck but otherwise capable, you get a shower, a meal, some job training and a housing subsidy, perhaps somewhere out of the city center. Today, the area is all cleaned up. Granted, Zurich CH is a much smaller (and wealthier and higher taxed) place than the entire state of CA but it illustrates that if we make the investments in social services, it can make a difference. And the problem will only get solved one homeless person at a time.
FuzzyWuzzy
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wifeisafurd said:

So LA is thinking about building new projects on existing government land, and taking bids for projects from private developers. It doesn't cost the governments cash which they are spending elsewhere, and hopefully the numbers work with the idea of not charging the developer rent on the land. But remember there is no profit in a totally subidized project until decontrol occurs decades later, and no less costly tax-exempt financing for the vertical costs. So what LA is dong is saying to developers, you can have a certain numbers of units be decontrolled. This actually makes sense for this type of development, And LA wants to put these projects in different areas in order to mainstream the tenants. This is a response to horrible urban renewal "projects" owned by the government in ghetto areas. The best practices is to mix subsidized tenants with regular tenants and not force all the projects in one area, and have it run by private parties. This avoids crime, stigmatizing residents and a lot of other problems. This is a long discussion, but if you ask experts there is fairly uniform agreement this is what you need to achieve success people wise.

What is also does is trigger community opposition that probably will cost Garcetti his job, and scare private equity away. There likely is no public money since redevelopment agencies were raided and eliminated by Brown, unless the State steps in with a State Bond issue. There no longer is a local mechanism for financing.

The other side of this for experts is that you simply need to increase the number of housing units in LA. since it is so difficult to get anyone interested in low income housing. So you would think LA would encourage new apartment rentals of all kinds. Well, if anything, higher density uses are subjectt to more regulation, scrutiny and are not favored by neighborhood councils (another stupid hurdle pushed by a bunch of academics). And then LA is considering adding a requirement that a certain number of units be under the low income controls even for regular apartment projects (the rent reduction stings the developer, but being subject to the whole regulatory scheme is a non-starter for developers that don't know area). Now new applications for apartment buildings are plummeting.

To make it worse, LA has now said one of the best way to prevent homelessness is by helping renters stay in their homes. They started funding a right to counsel program, without any parameters on tenant behavior, and have legislation pending for stronger tenant protections. At this point no one knows what those rights will be leading to uncertainty. Again, not a great way to attract apartment development capital.

I'm not suggesting that LA and other jurisdictions are acting with bad intentions, but market forces really don't care about intentions. Much of this homelessness problem has been brought about and will get worse due to ill-conceived public policy, neglect, and lack of planning. LA knew there was a day of reckoning coming with the soon to be decontrolled units, and did nothing.

Edit: IMO, locals are just overrun by the problem and this is not gong to get better except by State intervention.
It is not true that developers are not making money on affordable housing. They are getting paid very large fees to develop this kind of housing. And often times it is with very little of their own money, meaning their return on investment is very high.
wifeisafurd
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socaliganbear said:

Where are you getting 20k of new units for LA?
The LA Times is quoted saying that is what LA has been averaging. LA's policies probably will mean less than that without more State money, which is part to the problem. At a tine when more hosing and density is needed, LA's policies are leading to opposite results unless something changes. A 30% annual reduction when advocates are screaming for more housing s/b a wake up call.
wifeisafurd
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FuzzyWuzzy said:

wifeisafurd said:

My last visit to The City or East Bay was the Big Game last year. I have been to speak in the Peninsula (they actually let Cal grads speak at Furd symposiums) and didn't really see the homelessness that is so pervasive in Los Angles and San Diego and other urban areas in SoCal. So homelessness may be less of an issue in the Bay Area, but is huge down in SoCal, even in the OC. The problem here is more and more people are falling into homelessness as prices rise, the apartment stock has diminished over time, and there is a Pandora's box ready to open as discussed below.


As a result of several ballot measures approved by LA voters in the past few years, the city and the county spent hundreds of millions of dollars last year to address the homeless crisis. But the number of people living without shelter still went up 12% in the county and 16% in the city. Homelessness among youth and children rose 24% over the previous year. Per the LA Times of the nearly 60,000 people who are homeless in LA County, 19% told officials they came to LA County from out of state, 15% said they arrived from another part of California and 1.2% said they came from outside the United States. Why? Los Angeles had money to help them (at least in theory). While the homeless count in Los Angeles was shocking, the rise in homelessness in neighboring counties was equally bracing. Homelessness was up 40% in Ventura County, another county which embraces homelessness financially.

At the root of what is a very complex problem is the fact that many within LA's unsheltered population are grappling with substance abuse addictions and untreated mental illness, and families, have moved to tent cities generally into underpasses or protected areas in safer, often affluent areas. LA city and county policy, tent-dwellers are required to take down their tents during daylight hours to clear the streets for pedestrians and business owners. But because of the lawsuits, that policy is not being uniformly enforced. In most areas it does not appear to be enforced at all.

The lawsuits and court injunctions against LA have had other unintended consequences. Because of the proliferation of tents cities, police say, it is much harder to identify and halt drug dealing and human trafficking. The legal battles have also complicated the city's ability to clear trash-strewn streets, because it is not easy to identify what bedding, clothing or other property might belong to an "unsheltered" person living nearby.

However the bottom line is this has galvanized homeowner and business groups of people of different political persuasions, that in no way want any of these unsheltered people (homelessness in not PC to the West LA crowd) around or more density, and have the money and anger to delay new housing projects in their area, even those just built by government, for long periods of time, through CEQA or other methods. You certainly don't want to be a private developer (or anyone providing lending or capital) facing this type opposition.


So for long term action (not shelters) the government action should be to encourage increasing the supply of housing and retrofitting as much old housing as possible, to increase supply and bring down housing prices and in particular with respect to retrofits in not so upscale areas, affordable housing, right? Also greater density cuts down on commutes for those that are forced to live way out due to high prices in closer suburban and inner city areas, right? And that probably means subsidies because of the high cost to build or rehab housing in LA.

So housing experts (like UCLA) say that to help homeless individuals move into subsidized housing, we need to make sure there is enough housing to begin with. "Developing more affordable housing units doesn't just help homeless families and individuals make the transition into homes, it makes it easier for them to stay there after the rental assistance ends. As a region, LA is building about 20,000 units of affordable housing a year over the last 30 years, but L.A. should have been building more than 55,000 units a year to keep pace with growth. This disparity is partly fueling the homelessness crisis that we are experiencing now." (UCLA study).


Well housing starts (people pulling permits) last month were down 20% in the state, primary due to Los Angeles County having a drop pf 30%, over the same month last year. So when you talk to housing advocates, it is all about increasing supply, mainstreaming and government intervention in a positive way.

And then the Pandor's Box. About 30 years ago, the LA Redevelopment Agency made a huge effort to deal with then downtown homelessness, by funding a huge number of projects with tax-exempt financing. The developer got cheap financing in exchange for 30 years of rent control. As today, this was fee based development, as the developer, lawyers, consultants got paid their fees out of the financing, since after debt service and expenses, there was no future profit. until decontrol rents, decades later. The developer hired a management entity, often times a public (or quasi public) or non-profit entity to rent and operate the apartments and deal with the often onerous regulations of dealing with government regulations and subsidized tenants. Well guess what? You now have around 100,000 units that are about to become market rentals over the next couple years. So the money that was supposed to go to new projects is being used to induce the owners to these older projects to agree to not raise rents.

to be continued.





.




Forgive me if you covered these points, but I do see a couple of issues that aren't given enough discussion. There are way too many homeless in our state's urban centers, and they are overrunning the system. My first point is that some of them need to be relocated. I don't believe anyone has the right to live wherever they want. If I grow up in Beverly Hills but I work as a liquor store clerk, I'm not going to be able to afford to rent in Beverly Hills, even if I consider it my spiritual home. It's not my right. I'll have to relocate elsewhere. The homeless in Oakland, SF and LA do not have an inherent right to live in those cities. Most should be asked to move elsewhere, especially if they desire government subsidies for their housing. The subsidized housing should be spread out geographically.

Virtually all of the public dollars going to subsidize housing are going to those who are pretty poor or really poor - usually with incomes in the range of 30% - 60% of area median income. I think this is wrong. Some of the public subsidy needs to go to moderate income folks who earn 60% - 120% of median income for the area. Some of the affordable projects going up in Oakland and San Francisco have development costs at like $800K per unit. Why are we throwing all the public money to subsidize the very poor when the moderately poor cannot afford rents, either? The moderately poor (above 60% AMI) do not qualify to rent any of these subsidized (and rent-restricted) units. By the way, the waiting lists for these units are out the door and down the block. One family gets the $800K subsidized unit and everyone else in line gets nothing. How is that fair, or good policy?

Finally, we need to make big investments in mental health care and substance abuse treatment in order to get some of the chronically homeless to be not-so-chronically homeless. Some years ago, the Zurich main train station was overrun by homelessness and crime. There were drug dealers and drug addicts; it was unsafe and the regular population avoided that area. A new mayor came in and announced a plan. The government would go to the homeless population one by one and assess them. If you are a drug dealer, you go to jail. If you are a drug addict, you go into treatment. If you are mentally ill, you go into mental health treatment. And if you are just down on your luck but otherwise capable, you get a shower, a meal, some job training and a housing subsidy, perhaps somewhere out of the city center. Today, the area is all cleaned up. Granted, Zurich CH is a much smaller (and wealthier and higher taxed) place than the entire state of CA but it illustrates that if we make the investments in social services, it can make a difference. And the problem will only get solved one homeless person at a time.
A couple thoughts.

First, Zurich doesn't have the same laws. We have prisons full of drug dealers and we are going the opposite direction on incarcerating people for drugs. Mentally ill people have rights and you can't just send them somewhere, and least not without their (and their lawyer's) permission. You also just can't move the homeless from somewhere as Orange County found out. Maybe Zurich can, but they don't have our court system.

Second, the reason housing advocates want people spread out is called mainstreaming. They want people in all different areas, including Beverly Hills, rather than sticking the homeless and working poor into one area. I'm not going to spend hours explaining the reasons behind these policies, but they are in fact incorporated into the law so that every city, including Beverly Hills, has to have a low income housing element. Those of us who have worked in the low income housing area generally believe these policies make sense.
wifeisafurd
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FuzzyWuzzy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So LA is thinking about building new projects on existing government land, and taking bids for projects from private developers. It doesn't cost the governments cash which they are spending elsewhere, and hopefully the numbers work with the idea of not charging the developer rent on the land. But remember there is no profit in a totally subidized project until decontrol occurs decades later, and no less costly tax-exempt financing for the vertical costs. So what LA is dong is saying to developers, you can have a certain numbers of units be decontrolled. This actually makes sense for this type of development, And LA wants to put these projects in different areas in order to mainstream the tenants. This is a response to horrible urban renewal "projects" owned by the government in ghetto areas. The best practices is to mix subsidized tenants with regular tenants and not force all the projects in one area, and have it run by private parties. This avoids crime, stigmatizing residents and a lot of other problems. This is a long discussion, but if you ask experts there is fairly uniform agreement this is what you need to achieve success people wise.

What is also does is trigger community opposition that probably will cost Garcetti his job, and scare private equity away. There likely is no public money since redevelopment agencies were raided and eliminated by Brown, unless the State steps in with a State Bond issue. There no longer is a local mechanism for financing.

The other side of this for experts is that you simply need to increase the number of housing units in LA. since it is so difficult to get anyone interested in low income housing. So you would think LA would encourage new apartment rentals of all kinds. Well, if anything, higher density uses are subjectt to more regulation, scrutiny and are not favored by neighborhood councils (another stupid hurdle pushed by a bunch of academics). And then LA is considering adding a requirement that a certain number of units be under the low income controls even for regular apartment projects (the rent reduction stings the developer, but being subject to the whole regulatory scheme is a non-starter for developers that don't know area). Now new applications for apartment buildings are plummeting.

To make it worse, LA has now said one of the best way to prevent homelessness is by helping renters stay in their homes. They started funding a right to counsel program, without any parameters on tenant behavior, and have legislation pending for stronger tenant protections. At this point no one knows what those rights will be leading to uncertainty. Again, not a great way to attract apartment development capital.

I'm not suggesting that LA and other jurisdictions are acting with bad intentions, but market forces really don't care about intentions. Much of this homelessness problem has been brought about and will get worse due to ill-conceived public policy, neglect, and lack of planning. LA knew there was a day of reckoning coming with the soon to be decontrolled units, and did nothing.

Edit: IMO, locals are just overrun by the problem and this is not gong to get better except by State intervention.
It is not true that developers are not making money on affordable housing. They are getting paid very large fees to develop this kind of housing. And often times it is with very little of their own money, meaning their return on investment is very high.

Actually, almost always very little of their own money. Traditionally the capital came from redvelopment bonds, and some private parties that invested for community support reasons (e.g, PR), though the developer ended up losing a portion of their fees to those providing private capital. Today's world is no capital, thus no project. Give my posts another read.

As for return, I think there isn't a developer alive who wants to wait decades before seeing an increase in value to their property, or positive cash flow. This shows ignorance of the market. There are only a handful of successful low income housing developers, and that was based on cookie cutter deals that could be done on volume to constantly generate fees, because the individual projects otherwise suck when compared to other types of real estate returns. Thus, one reason why homeless advocates are pushing for apartment development of all types and greater density.

There are problems that are caused by (and which must be mitigated) more development and density, but that is another discussion.
wifeisafurd
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concordtom said:



Not to mention that if we are to actually BALANCE the budget (what a concept!) the GDP will suffer.


Jackson is dead, and Bill Clinton probably is dead from the standpoint of being elected President in the "me too" world. Those are the only two Presidents to balance the budget and both got a lot of help from factors beyond their control. This is so not gonna happen with guys like Trump or Sanders (I honesty don't know what Biden thinks about the subject). I don't want to hijack the thread, but fiscal responsibility seems to be the last thing on any politician's mind these days. I'm with Unit 2, interest rates are staying low for the foreseeable future as we enter trade wars and the Asian and EU economies weaken.
sycasey
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Isn't part of the problem that homeless tend to relocate on their own to "Sunny California," not just that they are demanding to stay put in expensive SF or LA? Better to be homeless where it doesn't snow.
oski003
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The weather is good and the people in California, generally, are more tolerant of people begging and sleeping on the sidewalk, etc...
Anarchistbear
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Get rid of the tech- holes

The come from s$it hole countries- Asia, Russia, Israel- or s$it hole states ( Connecticut) and work for s$it hole companies- Facebook, Twitter, Uber, developing s$it hole products. They don't assimilate and poison the culture. San Francisco used to have an end of the continent bohemian vibe- black people even lived there , now it's a place where the greatest cultural contribution is avocado toast. Send these nerds back to where they came from
wifeisafurd
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sycasey said:

Isn't part of the problem that homeless tend to relocate on their own to "Sunny California," not just that they are demanding to stay put in expensive SF or LA? Better to be homeless where it doesn't snow.
that is my understanding
wifeisafurd
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Anarchistbear said:

Get rid of the tech- holes

The come from s$it hole countries- Asia, Russia, Israel- or s$it hole states ( Connecticut) and work for s$it hole companies- Facebook, Twitter, Uber, developing s$it hole products. They don't assimilate and poison the culture. San Francisco used to have an end of the continent bohemian vibe- black people even lived there , now it's a place where the greatest cultural contribution is avocado toast. Send these nerds back to where they came from
what do you have against avocado toast? Next you will be attacking kale.
BearGoggles
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The homeless will generally cluster in areas where they have comparatively good weather, are left alone (i.e,. politically tolerated), and have better welfare benefits. That is California, particularly urban cities like LA and SFO as well as other beach areas.

In my view, there are generally two categories of homeless (i) working poor who have a hard time maintaining employment and affording housing - they often have housing for periods of time and then lose it; and (ii) people suffering from addition, mental illness, or other afflictions that generally render them unable or unwilling to work.

Yes - I am over simplifying, but the bottom line is that you can help the people in category (i) by making housing more affordable and/or wages higher (or perhaps direct housing subsidies). The goal for people in category (ii) should be to provide treatment so that they can graduate to category (i) or better. But the truth is that many of those people cannot be treated, so the best outcome will be shelters.

I think the people in category (i) can in fact be helped by increasing housing supply and, if need, be subsidies.

How to provide more housing to bring down cost? Lots of factors at play, but the biggest impediments in CA to housing development (both production and designated "affordable") are time delays and permit fees imposed by local government - particularly the time delays. Compared to other states, it takes an incredibly long time to get entitlements because there are very complicated processes (with substantial uncertainty) and there will always be local opposition and meddling. In development, most of the "value" is generated by the entitlement process. The actual home builders have lower returns/margins and IRR - which they are fine with if they don't have the risk of entitlement delays.

If California is serious, it will enact statewide "development by right" laws and other procedures for quickly resolving local entitlement/lawsuit disputes. There have been attempts to pass these laws recently (focused on higher density developments near transit centers), but the problem is equally widespread in suburban areas. Land owners and developers taking advantage of these new laws should agree to capped return.

The bottom line is that supply needs to increase substantially and costs need to be controlled as best as possible.
concordtom
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wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:



Not to mention that if we are to actually BALANCE the budget (what a concept!) the GDP will suffer.


Jackson is dead, and Bill Clinton probably is dead from the standpoint of being elected President in the "me too" world. Those are the only two Presidents to balance the budget and both got a lot of help from factors beyond their control. This is so not gonna happen with guys like Trump or Sanders (I honesty don't know what Biden thinks about the subject). I don't want to hijack the thread, but fiscal responsibility seems to be the last thing on any politician's mind these days. I'm with Unit 2, interest rates are staying low for the foreseeable future as we enter trade wars and the Asian and EU economies weaken.


So we agree.
US debt will continue.
This leads to future economic decline.
Thus homelessness expands.
Cheery! No thread hijack.
wifeisafurd
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concordtom said:

wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:



Not to mention that if we are to actually BALANCE the budget (what a concept!) the GDP will suffer.


Jackson is dead, and Bill Clinton probably is dead from the standpoint of being elected President in the "me too" world. Those are the only two Presidents to balance the budget and both got a lot of help from factors beyond their control. This is so not gonna happen with guys like Trump or Sanders (I honesty don't know what Biden thinks about the subject). I don't want to hijack the thread, but fiscal responsibility seems to be the last thing on any politician's mind these days. I'm with Unit 2, interest rates are staying low for the foreseeable future as we enter trade wars and the Asian and EU economies weaken.


So we agree.

maybe?

yes, I'm concerned about the deficit expanding and inflation, which has not happened, GDP continues to rise, albeit at inconsistent rates, though everyone thinks it is going down due to a tariff war and international demand waning, which I agree with. But based on my track record of predicting inflation, being in agreement with me, doesn't make you right. I agree with downward economic cycles (represented by GDP going south) you get more homelessness, assuming there is greater domestic unemployment or underemployment, which typically is the case.

Of course, right now, employment is doing well, as someone mentioned somewhere, Trump could change his mind on tariffs for like the 45th time, etc. . I think we parted company on interest rates. When the FED is expected the economy to go bad, interest rates go down. I'm not sure that changes the prospect of more homelessness however. I suppose you could argue that building affordable housing is helped with lower interest rates, since housing projects of this kind typically are funded through long term debt. The problem is there is a lag between when a developer and government start on the path to developing these projects, several years before the project is approved, financed, constructed and finally rented; thus, back to your prediction on more homelessness. I also see it getting worse.

socaliganbear
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wifeisafurd said:

socaliganbear said:

Where are you getting 20k of new units for LA?
The LA Times is quoted saying that is what LA has been averaging. LA's policies probably will mean less than that without more State money, which is part to the problem. At a tine when more hosing and density is needed, LA's policies are leading to opposite results unless something changes. A 30% annual reduction when advocates are screaming for more housing s/b a wake up call.


I see. Would be interesting to see what that actually entails. Actual units produced, permits permitted, units in the pipe line etc. Also, what they mean by LA. That number seems really high to this amateur urban planner, tho I did major in it...
wifeisafurd
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socaliganbear said:

wifeisafurd said:

socaliganbear said:

Where are you getting 20k of new units for LA?
The LA Times is quoted saying that is what LA has been averaging. LA's policies probably will mean less than that without more State money, which is part to the problem. At a tine when more hosing and density is needed, LA's policies are leading to opposite results unless something changes. A 30% annual reduction when advocates are screaming for more housing s/b a wake up call.


I see. Would be interesting to see what that actually entails. Actual units produced, permits permitted, units in the pipe line etc. Also, what they mean by LA. That number seems really high to this amateur urban planner, tho I did major in it...
I'm don't know where the Times got their numbers.

I can tell you antidotally, is these projects go in cycles, so averaging 20K in units doesn't mean 20K each year, but rather a lot some years, and very little other years. It all depended on various factors, including whether it was a political priority to make limited financing available for housing, market conditions, how much priority was being given to processing permits, whether local NIMBY's were willing to take greenmail or you had to go to a full blown CEQA challenge, etc.
concordtom
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wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:



Not to mention that if we are to actually BALANCE the budget (what a concept!) the GDP will suffer.


Jackson is dead, and Bill Clinton probably is dead from the standpoint of being elected President in the "me too" world. Those are the only two Presidents to balance the budget and both got a lot of help from factors beyond their control. This is so not gonna happen with guys like Trump or Sanders (I honesty don't know what Biden thinks about the subject). I don't want to hijack the thread, but fiscal responsibility seems to be the last thing on any politician's mind these days. I'm with Unit 2, interest rates are staying low for the foreseeable future as we enter trade wars and the Asian and EU economies weaken.


So we agree.

maybe?

yes, I'm concerned about the deficit expanding and inflation, which has not happened, GDP continues to rise, albeit at inconsistent rates, though everyone thinks it is going down due to a tariff war and international demand waning, which I agree with. But based on my track record of predicting inflation, being in agreement with me, doesn't make you right. I agree with downward economic cycles (represented by GDP going south) you get more homelessness, assuming there is greater domestic unemployment or underemployment, which typically is the case.

Of course, right now, employment is doing well, as someone mentioned somewhere, Trump could change his mind on tariffs for like the 45th time, etc. . I think we parted company on interest rates. When the FED is expected the economy to go bad, interest rates go down. I'm not sure that changes the prospect of more homelessness however. I suppose you could argue that building affordable housing is helped with lower interest rates, since housing projects of this kind typically are funded through long term debt. The problem is there is a lag between when a developer and government start on the path to developing these projects, several years before the project is approved, financed, constructed and finally rented; thus, back to your prediction on more homelessness. I also see it getting worse.




1) govt should not be responsible for building housing units. The invisible hand of supply and demand should - private sector.

2) too many people lack the money to push housing starts. Too much money in the hands of the very few, a contracted middle class, a growing lower/under class.

And I didn't even mention environmental refugees, did I? When the levee breaks, got no place to go.
concordtom
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If you look at the type of chart I've posted a dozen times on OT, historical US tax rates (highest marginal bracket) for
Income
Cap gains
Dividends
Corporate
You'll see we are at lows across the board.
You'll also find that concentration of wealth is at highs.

I would submit that we should increase taxes on the wealthy, decrease on the poor, balance our budget, and hope things straighten out.

(I would not increase taxes, per Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, so as to give free college tuition, forgive debts, or otherwise expand social welfare causes. We need increased revenue to balance the budget and to return a greater amount of equity to a wider swath of Americans.)

It would take a massive reeducation of America about where we stand along these lines, and get them to see that this is for the best. Studies have shown that poor people vote for lower taxes for the rich because they hope to become a part of that group one day.
Come on, people. Get smart.
wifeisafurd
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concordtom said:

wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:



Not to mention that if we are to actually BALANCE the budget (what a concept!) the GDP will suffer.


Jackson is dead, and Bill Clinton probably is dead from the standpoint of being elected President in the "me too" world. Those are the only two Presidents to balance the budget and both got a lot of help from factors beyond their control. This is so not gonna happen with guys like Trump or Sanders (I honesty don't know what Biden thinks about the subject). I don't want to hijack the thread, but fiscal responsibility seems to be the last thing on any politician's mind these days. I'm with Unit 2, interest rates are staying low for the foreseeable future as we enter trade wars and the Asian and EU economies weaken.


So we agree.

maybe?

yes, I'm concerned about the deficit expanding and inflation, which has not happened, GDP continues to rise, albeit at inconsistent rates, though everyone thinks it is going down due to a tariff war and international demand waning, which I agree with. But based on my track record of predicting inflation, being in agreement with me, doesn't make you right. I agree with downward economic cycles (represented by GDP going south) you get more homelessness, assuming there is greater domestic unemployment or underemployment, which typically is the case.

Of course, right now, employment is doing well, as someone mentioned somewhere, Trump could change his mind on tariffs for like the 45th time, etc. . I think we parted company on interest rates. When the FED is expected the economy to go bad, interest rates go down. I'm not sure that changes the prospect of more homelessness however. I suppose you could argue that building affordable housing is helped with lower interest rates, since housing projects of this kind typically are funded through long term debt. The problem is there is a lag between when a developer and government start on the path to developing these projects, several years before the project is approved, financed, constructed and finally rented; thus, back to your prediction on more homelessness. I also see it getting worse.




1) govt should not be responsible for building housing units. The invisible hand of supply and demand should - private sector.

2) too many people lack the money to push housing starts. Too much money in the hands of the very few, a contracted middle class, a growing lower/under class.

And I didn't even mention environmental refugees, did I? When the levee breaks, got no place to go.
LOL, showing your age with the Led Zeppelin reference.

Maybe these projects work in lower cost construction states with less permit requirements. But the invisible hand doesn't find low income housing profitable, at least for the risk in urban areas of California. In my experience. Government is involved providing inducements and regulating the rental side of the market instead.
concordtom
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Not to hijack your housing thread, wife - certainly you know a hell of a lot more than me about this type of development/construction/real estate - but perhaps a tangent along the lines of why America isn't working right now:

Global portability of assets, jobs, raw and finished materials.

60-70 years ago, it was harder for industrial capital to access all channels of global production. Production happened here. But today we have seaports and container shipping galore, mature international banking, cheap labor forces at the ready.
Thus, production happens abroad - particularly for the lower class unskilled jobs.

Meanwhile, we seem to be falling in love with minimum wage laws - as if that is going to save us. No, it will only further price a vast segment of the population out of the market, pushing them to homelessness. How can you compete where your labor costs are X times more than the 2+ Billion in China and India, not to mention other billions elsewhere?

And yet Trump panders to the masses that he's gonna get their jobs back. What a crock!

Along with discussing the national debt, truth ain't happening, and it's gonna sink us. Led Zeppelin included.

Primarily, I blame the GOP. They are more dishonest brokers than the Dems - by FAR.
wifeisafurd
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My two cents. The one thing politicians done't seem to get is that capital is much more portable these days, It really doesn't care much about international borders. It moves to where the best returns are for risk. The more risk government, social and economic unrest imposes, the less likely capital will flow to finance all that production. And capital markets react bad to volatile situations. For the political risk: a President that tweets about massive changes in trade or business policies every couple days. Also, it doesn't like radical change that say a Sanders is proposing, and my guess is capital will flee from a Sanders or Warren win. From a political risk perspective, a steady guy like Biden is preferable. (This ignores all the other non-economic issues in electing a President).
 
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