One of the funny things about this recent election is that both sides expected turnout to be very high. Democrats like me are not surprised that Biden got 80 million votes - in fact we expected something in that general vicinity. Team Trump seems to think that number is an impossibility and, by itself is evidence of fraud. On the other hand, Republicans don't seem surprised that Trump got 74 million - they seemed to be expecting it. It came as a surprise to me and many other Democrats though. Trump increasing his 2016 vote by 10 million is not what we were expecting and has actually been a source of general disappointment for many of us.

2018 and 2019 elections were very favorable for Democrats. The trending demographics look very favorable for Democrats. The 2016 election looked like a fluke. For people like me, Democratic ascendancy was in the cards. But the Trump surge has caused me to rethink that, or maybe consider that it may be delayed.

Which brings me to this Deplorable Theory. It's a twist on the shy Trump voter theory. It basically says, Trump gets lots of votes from loud and proud Trump supporters who are otherwise disconnected from society and politics. They are not Republicans. They are not conservatives. They live in declining rural communities and see society passing them by and are essentially anti-society (at least as it is developing in the 21st century). They like Trump's society disrupting nature. Pollsters don't catch them, not because they are shy, but because they are disconnected.

The importance of the theory is because if it is true - look for future elections to look like 2018. Without Trump on the ballot will these voters stay home and will the Democratic ascendancy move forward. Or will these voters turn out for Republicans (unlike 2018 and 2019) and cause divided, center-right government to continue?

The Georgia election in January may provide an excellent test case.

The theory comes from kos, of dailykos fame. Link below.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/16/1996146/-Trump-has-a-legit-superpower-and-it-s-his-hidden-deplorables#read-more

bearister said:

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" They like Trump's society executing nature."

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I was trying to be polite - for the sake of discussion

I think this theory is missing a couple things:

1. Trump energized a lot of people for him but he also energized a lot against him. Just as it's unclear how many Trump voters will stick around without Trump in power or on the ballot it's also unclear how many anti-Trump voters will stick around.

2. Some of the Dem wins in 2018 appear to have been from conservatives who don't like Trump having no other outlet but to vote against Rs. In 2020 those people voted R down ballot and for Biden (against Trump) at the top. This is evidenced by Biden running ahead of most swing state / district Ds. These voters seem likely to revert to voting R in future non-Trump elections.

There's no clear D ascendency.

I do think there is an interesting potential impact of the Trump hastened realignment. If the suburban educated voters continue to move D, that has implications for midterms. The hypothesis has for years been that midterms are more R friendly because R's core voters are generally higher likelihood voters while Ds rely on minorities and young people who don't reliably show up. If more of the reliable voters start becoming D and Rs rely on lower likelihood voters that could make midterms less R biased.

boredom said:

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I think this theory is missing a couple things:

1. Trump energized a lot of people for him but he also energized a lot against him. Just as it's unclear how many Trump voters will stick around without Trump in power or on the ballot it's also unclear how many anti-Trump voters will stick around.

2. Some of the Dem wins in 2018 appear to have been from conservatives who don't like Trump having no other outlet but to vote against Rs. In 2020 those people voted R down ballot and for Biden (against Trump) at the top. This is evidenced by Biden running ahead of most swing state / district Ds. These voters seem likely to revert to voting R in future non-Trump elections.

There's no clear D ascendency.

I do think there is an interesting potential impact of the Trump hastened realignment. If the suburban educated voters continue to move D, that has implications for midterms. The hypothesis has for years been that midterms are more R friendly because R's core voters are generally higher likelihood voters while Ds rely on minorities and young people who don't reliably show up. If more of the reliable voters start becoming D and Rs rely on lower likelihood voters that could make midterms less R biased.

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1. I agree, this will be interesting to see.
2. I think this is a bit of a stretch. Your argument is that a sizeable portion of voters voted for Democratic legislatures in 2018 and Republican legislatures in 2020. Despite that, and the Trump voters going straight ticket Republican, Democrats still nationally got the most votes for House of Representatives. This would be an argument in favor of a Democratic ascendancy.

I think midterms typically favor the non-Presidential party, moreso than Republicans. The non-President party has won every time since 2002. That would definitely favor Republicans for 2022. A big Republican win is the baseline for 2022. If that doesn't happen, Republicans are in big trouble. But, as a prelude, Republicans should win in Georgia for the reasons you raised and the reason I raised. If Democrats get the upset. . .

He said, "There's no way Biden got 80M votes, no way!"

If Trump got 80, 90, or 100 Million votes, we would never hear the end of it.
He's just an idiot, plain and simple.

Anarchistbear said:

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The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that rather than have the two most unpopular candidates in Presidential history; we only had one.

Biden's gains were with whites in suburbs. The same voters who voted for Republicans in senate and local elections and consciously split tickets in the midst of a pandemic and a horrendous economy rather than give the Dems a mandate . The local elections were particularly damaging asper the NYT

"That dawning truth is evident in the narrower majority that House Democrats will hold in Congress next year, and especially in the blood bath that the party suffered in legislative races in key states around the country, despite directing hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying top party figures like former President Barack Obama to obscure down-ballot elections.

This year, Democrats targeted a dozen state legislative chambers where Republicans held tenuous majorities, including in Pennsylvania, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota. Their goal was to check the power of Republicans to redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2021, and to curb the rightward drift of policies from abortion to gun safety to voting rights.

But in all cases, Democrats came up short. None of their targeted legislative chambers flipped, even though Mr. Biden carried many of the districts that down-ballot Democrats did not. It could make it harder for Democrats to retain a House majority in 2022. ."

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I know you and the New York Times love your Democrats in disarray narrative, but I prefer numbers.

2020 Biden vote = 80 million
2020 Dem House vote = 77 million
Split / lost vote = 3 million

2016 Hillary vote = 66 million
2016 Dem House vote = 62 million
Split / lost vote = 4 million

Additional 2020 Biden voters = 14 million
Additional 2020 Dem House voters = 15 million

dajo9 said:

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The Georgia election in January may provide an excellent test case.

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If Dems win both Senate seats, I will laugh my azz off!
I seriously doubt it!!! But, that would just be hilarious. Hard core R's would lose their minds.

dajo9 said:

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The theory comes from kos, of dailykos fame. Link below.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/16/1996146/-Trump-has-a-legit-superpower-and-it-s-his-hidden-deplorables#read-more

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Wow. People still read that site?

dajo9 said:

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Additional 2020 Biden / Dem House voters = +16 million
Additional 2016 Biden / Split / lost voters = -1 million

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Boy! That means that there are a hell of a lot of voters who REALLY hate Trump!!!!!!

Concordtom, my apologies, as my first posts had some errors which you have quoted. I think my current post is correct. The theme does not change.

Yes, the big question really is how much "Trumpism" holds without Trump. Do Republicans see the same surge of low-propensity voters turning out like they did for Trump? Or does it go back to the Obama-era baseline with suburban voters leaning Republican (or being at best split) and Democrats relying on low-propensity turnout to juice their numbers?

If I were a Republican I would definitely be worried about how badly they've been losing the suburbs lately, and higher-educated voters in particular. Those have historically been the highest-propensity voters. Their poor numbers with Millennial voters are also a big problem going forward. But we will have to see how the parties respond to the post-Trump world.

dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that rather than have the two most unpopular candidates in Presidential history; we only had one.

Biden's gains were with whites in suburbs. The same voters who voted for Republicans in senate and local elections and consciously split tickets in the midst of a pandemic and a horrendous economy rather than give the Dems a mandate . The local elections were particularly damaging asper the NYT

"That dawning truth is evident in the narrower majority that House Democrats will hold in Congress next year, and especially in the blood bath that the party suffered in legislative races in key states around the country, despite directing hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying top party figures like former President Barack Obama to obscure down-ballot elections.

This year, Democrats targeted a dozen state legislative chambers where Republicans held tenuous majorities, including in Pennsylvania, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota. Their goal was to check the power of Republicans to redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2021, and to curb the rightward drift of policies from abortion to gun safety to voting rights.

But in all cases, Democrats came up short. None of their targeted legislative chambers flipped, even though Mr. Biden carried many of the districts that down-ballot Democrats did not. It could make it harder for Democrats to retain a House majority in 2022. ."

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I know you and the New York Times love your Democrats in disarray narrative, but I prefer numbers.

2020 Biden vote = 80 million
2020 Dem House vote = 77 million
Split / lost vote = 3 million

2016 Hillary vote = 66 million
2016 Dem House vote = 62 million
Split / lost vote = 4 million

Additional 2020 Biden voters = 14 million
Additional 2020 Dem House voters = 15 million

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Now let's do Republicans

2020 Trump vote = 74 million
2020 Rep House vote = 73 million
Split / lost vote = 1 million

2016 Trump vote = 63 million
2016 Rep House vote = 63 million
Split / lost vote = ~0

Additional 2020 Trump voters = 11 million
Additional 2020 Rep House voters = 10 million

It would seem the Dems performed better than Republicans in 2020 in national House races nominally and also in comparison to 2016

Hypothetical:
What if Rupert Murdoch (alternately goaded and "rewarded" by Jerry Hall) went scorched earth against tRumpism (a Lincoln Project on meth, so to speak), fired and bought out all the RWNJ opinion show hosts' contracts and put his billions and his propaganda machine behind moderate Republican candidates?

IMHO, this would make things worse for us Democrats than having tRump and his crazies still having influence.

Anarchistbear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that rather than have the two most unpopular candidates in Presidential history; we only had one.

Biden's gains were with whites in suburbs. The same voters who voted for Republicans in senate and local elections and consciously split tickets in the midst of a pandemic and a horrendous economy rather than give the Dems a mandate . The local elections were particularly damaging asper the NYT

"That dawning truth is evident in the narrower majority that House Democrats will hold in Congress next year, and especially in the blood bath that the party suffered in legislative races in key states around the country, despite directing hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying top party figures like former President Barack Obama to obscure down-ballot elections.

This year, Democrats targeted a dozen state legislative chambers where Republicans held tenuous majorities, including in Pennsylvania, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota. Their goal was to check the power of Republicans to redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2021, and to curb the rightward drift of policies from abortion to gun safety to voting rights.

But in all cases, Democrats came up short. None of their targeted legislative chambers flipped, even though Mr. Biden carried many of the districts that down-ballot Democrats did not. It could make it harder for Democrats to retain a House majority in 2022. ."

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I know you and the New York Times love your Democrats in disarray narrative, but I prefer numbers.

2020 Biden vote = 80 million
2020 Dem House vote = 77 million
Split / lost vote = 3 million

2016 Hillary vote = 66 million
2016 Dem House vote = 62 million
Split / lost vote = 4 million

Additional 2020 Biden voters = 14 million
Additional 2020 Dem House voters = 15 million

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Numbers are meaningless without power.

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lol, quite the comedown

concordtom said:

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dajo9 said:

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Additional 2020 Biden / Dem House voters = 15 million
Additional 2016 Biden / Split / lost voters = 14

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Quote:

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Concordtom, my apologies, as my first posts had some errors which you have quoted. I think my current post is correct. The theme does not change.

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Very well.
But I stand by my same conclusion:

"there are a hell of a lot of voters who REALLY hate Trump!!!!!!"

bearister said:

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Hypothetical:
What if Rupert Murdoch (alternately goaded and "rewarded" by Jerry Hall) went scorched earth against tRumpism (a Lincoln Project on meth, so to speak), fired and bought out all the RWNJ opinion show hosts' contracts and put his billions and his propaganda machine behind moderate Republican candidates?

IMHO, this would make things worse for us Democrats than having tRump and his crazies still having influence.

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Ha, you know, you just may be right - very right.

sycasey said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that rather than have the two most unpopular candidates in Presidential history; we only had one.

Biden's gains were with whites in suburbs. The same voters who voted for Republicans in senate and local elections and consciously split tickets in the midst of a pandemic and a horrendous economy rather than give the Dems a mandate . The local elections were particularly damaging asper the NYT

"That dawning truth is evident in the narrower majority that House Democrats will hold in Congress next year, and especially in the blood bath that the party suffered in legislative races in key states around the country, despite directing hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying top party figures like former President Barack Obama to obscure down-ballot elections.

This year, Democrats targeted a dozen state legislative chambers where Republicans held tenuous majorities, including in Pennsylvania, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota. Their goal was to check the power of Republicans to redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2021, and to curb the rightward drift of policies from abortion to gun safety to voting rights.

But in all cases, Democrats came up short. None of their targeted legislative chambers flipped, even though Mr. Biden carried many of the districts that down-ballot Democrats did not. It could make it harder for Democrats to retain a House majority in 2022. ."

---

I know you and the New York Times love your Democrats in disarray narrative, but I prefer numbers.

2020 Biden vote = 80 million
2020 Dem House vote = 77 million
Split / lost vote = 3 million

2016 Hillary vote = 66 million
2016 Dem House vote = 62 million
Split / lost vote = 4 million

Additional 2020 Biden voters = 14 million
Additional 2020 Dem House voters = 15 million

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Numbers are meaningless without power.

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lol, quite the comedown

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It was a Dajo wave- one that exists only in your insular tribe reinforced by numbers that mean nothing. The national House vote has no political significance

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Democrats still maintained a House majority even with the unexpectedly strong R performance downballot, which does mean something.

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Better than that. The Dems lost the House in 2016 both in terms of seats and national votes (which is apparently only meaningful when trying to degrade from a Dem Presidential victory). Republicans had a surge in votes in 2020 and performed worse than Democrats both in the Presidency and in the House relative to 2016. Dem House votes outperformed Biden relative to 2016.

2020 was not a blue wave (we know - that's half the point of the thread). Many hoped it would be and that would mean flipping state legislatures. That didn't happen. We know. This thread is for people who maybe would like to discuss something bigger than their preferred Dems in disarray narrative.

concordtom said:

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dajo9 said:

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The Georgia election in January may provide an excellent test case.

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If Dems win both Senate seats, I will laugh my azz off!
I seriously doubt it!!! But, that would just be hilarious. Hard core R's would lose their minds.

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I'd be satisfied just seeing the look on Witch McConnell's face.

dajo9 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that rather than have the two most unpopular candidates in Presidential history; we only had one.

Biden's gains were with whites in suburbs. The same voters who voted for Republicans in senate and local elections and consciously split tickets in the midst of a pandemic and a horrendous economy rather than give the Dems a mandate . The local elections were particularly damaging asper the NYT

"That dawning truth is evident in the narrower majority that House Democrats will hold in Congress next year, and especially in the blood bath that the party suffered in legislative races in key states around the country, despite directing hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying top party figures like former President Barack Obama to obscure down-ballot elections.

This year, Democrats targeted a dozen state legislative chambers where Republicans held tenuous majorities, including in Pennsylvania, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota. Their goal was to check the power of Republicans to redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2021, and to curb the rightward drift of policies from abortion to gun safety to voting rights.

But in all cases, Democrats came up short. None of their targeted legislative chambers flipped, even though Mr. Biden carried many of the districts that down-ballot Democrats did not. It could make it harder for Democrats to retain a House majority in 2022. ."

---

I know you and the New York Times love your Democrats in disarray narrative, but I prefer numbers.

2020 Biden vote = 80 million
2020 Dem House vote = 77 million
Split / lost vote = 3 million

2016 Hillary vote = 66 million
2016 Dem House vote = 62 million
Split / lost vote = 4 million

Additional 2020 Biden voters = 14 million
Additional 2020 Dem House voters = 15 million

---

Now let's do Republicans

2020 Trump vote = 74 million
2020 Rep House vote = 73 million
Split / lost vote = 1 million

2016 Trump vote = 63 million
2016 Rep House vote = 63 million
Split / lost vote = ~0

Additional 2020 Trump voters = 11 million
Additional 2020 Rep House voters = 10 million

It would seem the Dems performed better than Republicans in 2020 in national House races nominally and also in comparison to 2016

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I think we've found the Trump / Dem House voters

Rush Limbaugh said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that rather than have the two most unpopular candidates in Presidential history; we only had one.

Biden's gains were with whites in suburbs. The same voters who voted for Republicans in senate and local elections and consciously split tickets in the midst of a pandemic and a horrendous economy rather than give the Dems a mandate . The local elections were particularly damaging asper the NYT

"That dawning truth is evident in the narrower majority that House Democrats will hold in Congress next year, and especially in the blood bath that the party suffered in legislative races in key states around the country, despite directing hundreds of millions of dollars and deploying top party figures like former President Barack Obama to obscure down-ballot elections.

This year, Democrats targeted a dozen state legislative chambers where Republicans held tenuous majorities, including in Pennsylvania, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota. Their goal was to check the power of Republicans to redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2021, and to curb the rightward drift of policies from abortion to gun safety to voting rights.

But in all cases, Democrats came up short. None of their targeted legislative chambers flipped, even though Mr. Biden carried many of the districts that down-ballot Democrats did not. It could make it harder for Democrats to retain a House majority in 2022. ."

---

I know you and the New York Times love your Democrats in disarray narrative, but I prefer numbers.

2020 Biden vote = 80 million
2020 Dem House vote = 77 million
Split / lost vote = 3 million

2016 Hillary vote = 66 million
2016 Dem House vote = 62 million
Split / lost vote = 4 million

Additional 2020 Biden voters = 14 million
Additional 2020 Dem House voters = 15 million

---

Numbers are meaningless without power.

---

lol, quite the comedown

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It was a Dajo wave- one that exists only in your insular tribe reinforced by numbers that mean nothing. The national House vote has no political significance

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dajo was probably the guy who wrote this post in the forum.

There is no need for a Kos TV. We already have MSNBC and CNN to publish liberal propaganda and cut people off who call out their hypocrisy.

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Did they bring him back after the break?

Rush Limbaugh said:

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AunBear89 said:

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https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/99229/replies/1822991

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This is how I imagine AunBear89

I can never remember which one is you and which is your other handle...

Big C: Yes---you just did write that----if I didn't like you so much I would be ashamed of you..You have just unmasked yourself as an elitist who views blue-collar workers with almost as much disdain as most elitist , arrogant liberals . I'm suddenly sad...

There's a reason queen Nancy has vowed to quit in 2022. And, it has nothing to do with eating more ice cream or getting more botox facials....As a daughter of a mob guy, she can see the handwriting on the wall, and, has decided to go into the witness protection program in 2022. Don't let the door hit you on the butt on your way out, Nancy dear..