UC Davis Returns a lot, but that Shouldn’t Matter for Cal

After the trip to New York City for the 2K Empire Classic, the Bears return home and don’t leave the Bay Area for the next 10 games. The homestand begins with a slew of games against local teams, beginning with UC Davis on November 26th.

Both Torvik projections and KenPom projections put this as a win for the Bears even though the Aggies will bring a very experienced core of players to the Haas.

UC Davis Aggies

Last season: 11-20 (7-9), KenPom No. 252

2020 Torvik Projection: 15-17 (8-8)

2020 KenPom Projection: 13-19 (6-10)

Head Coach: Jim Les

Jim Les enters his ninth season at UC Davis and so far, the Aggies have finished all over the place in the Big West Conference. Conference records have ranged from 3-13 during his first season to 14-2 in 2015 and have fallen basically everywhere in-between. But after two years of improvement in 2017 and 2018, last year was a disappointing one that saw the Aggies fall to 11-20 and 7-9 in the conference with a first-round conference tournament loss to Cal State Fullerton.

To be sure, Les has the mid-major experience. Prior to Davis, Les spent nine seasons at Bradley, a normally decent team out of the Missouri Valley Conference. Over the past few seasons, Les’s teams have generally been better at defense. Last season, the Aggies ranked 159th in KenPom’s adjusted defense and just 310th in the adjusted offense.

The one thing the Aggies do very well on defense is turn teams over. In each of the last two seasons, UC Davis has ranked in the top-40 in KenPom’s turnover rate, turning teams over at a clip of 22.0 in 2017 and 21.1 in 2018. So it will be a relatively early test for the Bears and their ability to value the basketball.

On offense in recent years, the Aggies have found success in three-point shooting and getting to the free-throw line at a decent rate. But when your team ranks 310th in KenPom’s adjusted offense, it’s tough to find really anything the offense does well and that was the case last season.

Key Returning Players:

Joe Mooney, 6-3, SR., 9.9 pts, 2.6 rbds, 1.2 asts

Stefan Gonzalez, 6-2, SR., 6.9 pts, 3.4 rbds

Matt Neufield, 6-11, SR., 7.8 pts, 3.0 rbds

As mentioned above, the Aggies have a core of four seniors and two juniors that all bring quite a bit of experience. Leading the way in returning production in terms of points is Joe Mooney, who was the third-leading scorer on last year’s team. Mooney also has Stefan Gonzalez, and the two form a solid backcourt for the Aggies. Neufield is the Aggies’ tallest player by about three inches at 6-11 and is the main paint-presence for UC Davis.

Key Losses:

TJ Shorts, 15.2 pts, 4.7 rbds, 4.3 asts

Siler Schneider, 10.4 pts, 2.8 rbds, 1.9 asts

One reason why the Aggies return so much but are still projected to take a step back is the question of who fills the hole left by TJ Shorts. He did basically everything last season for the Aggies, leading the team in points scored, rebounds, assists, and steals. Siler Schneider was the team’s second-leading scorer. With those two losses, Mooney and Gonzalez have some immediate scoring and distribution holes to fill.

Key Incoming Players:

Malcolm Johson, 6-5, JR.

Wesley Harris, 6-6, JR.

Kennedy Koehler, 6-8 SO.

The Aggies add a trio of transfers that could make an impact this season. Wesley Harris spent two seasons at West Virginia and one at Tennessee State before transferring to UC Davis. Harris, along with Malcolm Johnson and Kennedy Koehler could all add some depth for the Aggies at the three and four positions.

This is a game the Bears should win. And it shouldn’t really be close. The Aggies have some intriguing pieces returning, but the talent level — and coaching ability — should still tip heavily towards the Bears. Take care of business in this one and move on to the tougher games with local teams on the schedule.

Non-Con Opponents Preview Series:

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Georgetown

Duke

Prairie View A&M

Cal Baptist

UNLV

Pepperdine