I don't quite understand the conclusion that Cal needs to win at least 2 out of 3 games against favored local opponents, all three games played in the opponents' arenas, or else we are in for a long winter. This is not necessarily the time to focus on winning games, it is the time for improving how we play on both defense and offense, a time for playing hard, playing as well as we can, and let the score take care of itself. The players are still learning how to play, and play together, and the coaches are evaluating their players. These games mean little or nothing. We are not likely gunning for a high seed in the NCAA, but we should be focusing on getting ready for the PAC12 games, which count the most. I think we have a shot to win any of these 3 games, and I'd be OK with one win, disappointed with none, and very pleased with 2 or 3 wins, but I wouldn't throw in the towel if we lose all three. It all depends on how we look if we lose all three. Do we look like a Wyking Jones team in the losses, or are we competitive for 40 minutes?
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Cal Basketball
Scouting Report: Cal Vs USF
Cal kicks off an important three-game non-conference stretch tonight when it travels across the Bay Bridge to play the University of San Francisco Dons. During the next three games, Cal faces three local teams ranked between No. 107 and 125 in KenPom’s standings (the Bears are ranked No. 171). Winning two or three of the games would be a very solid stepping stone and sign that the program is heading in the right direction. But if Cal loses all three or only manages to win one game, it could be the beginning of another long winter for men’s hoops in Berkeley.
Ranked No. 107 in KenPom’s standings, the Dons won’t be fresh when they play the Bears on Wednesday as in an odd scheduling move, USF plays Arizona State on Tuesday, the day before playing Cal. (I’m actually watching the USF-Arizona State game while typing this.)
USF is led by first-year coach Todd Golden, who took over after being an assistant for Kyle Smith. The Dons started out 7-0 and its first game last Friday by 10 points at Hawaii. It’s an experienced and balanced group with five players averaging in double-digit points per game. Junior point guard Jamaree Bouyea has been strong so far this season and is averaging 15.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Fellow junior combo guard Charles Minlend has also been playing strong and is also averaging 15.1 points per game.
The other player Cal fans should be aware of is senior center Jimbo Lull. His name alone is just something to be celebrated. But the seven-foot, 250-pound center is averaging over 12 points and nearly eight rebounds a game to lead USF’s interior presence. But Lull can also stretch the floor a bit and is shooting five-of-seven from three. The trio of Bouyea, Lull, and Minlend are averaging the team’s top-three percentage of minutes so far at 80.3%, 72.6%, and 69.8%, respectively.
Sophomore combo guard Khalil Shabazz and senior wing Jordan Ratinho are the other two pieces to know about. Both Shabazz and Ratinho are averaging at least 10 points per game and Shabazz has the team’s second-highest shot percentage rate behind Minlend.
The Dons’ defense has been pretty bad so far this year. Teams are shooting particularly well against USF — especially from three. Cal has the potential to really go off and bust this game open like it did against Pepperdine. The Dons also don’t block shots at a high rate and they don’t create steals or turnovers. These are all good things if you’re Cal as the Bears have struggled with non-steal turnovers.
While USF’s defense has left quite a bit to be desired, Cal won’t face many better offenses this year. The Dons’ are in the top-50 in about every meaningful offensive category in KenPom’s metrics. They shoot the ball very well, they don’t turn it over, and they crash the offensive glass. This will be a test of Cal’s perimeter and transition defense.
Three keys to the game
Three-point shooting
This game has the potential to be an absolute shoot-out from long range. Both teams shoot it well from distance and both teams don’t do a particularly good job at guarding the three — especially USF. If Matt Bradley and Grant Anticevich can get going early and often, Cal has a strong chance in stealing this one. If Bradley and Anticevich are struggling to knock down outside shots and USF is, it could get ugly for Cal quickly.
Pace and transition defense
USF plays fast. Cal does not. USF likes to score in transition. Cal has had issues with transition defense. The Bears have the depth to run with the Dons but they might not want to. The Dons pull up for long-range shots in transition as well as attack the rim, so the Bears will have to be ready for both.
Offensive rebounding and post-play
With USF’s deft shooting, Cal cannot afford to give up offensive rebounds like it has recently. The Bears really need to focus on blocking out and keeping the Dons off the offensive glass. And it will also be a test for Lars Thiemann and the other post players for the Bears. Lull is a load and will make rebounding difficult for Cal.
KenPom projection: USF - 74, Cal - 67 (USF 76% win chance)
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