The BearInsider Scout: Cal vs Harvard

After a lengthy break, Cal (6-6) comes back to the court to close out conference play with a Sunday afternoon clash with the Harvard Crimson (8-4) at Haas Pavilion. On paper, it’s an interesting game. KenPom projects a virtual tossup. So far this season, Harvard has beaten every team it’s played ranked No. 145 or lower in KenPom. And it's lost to every team ranked No. 143 or better. 

Harvard played Maryland close this year — losing by seven on a neutral court. It also lost by 15 to USC on a neutral court. It’s other two losses were to Buffalo by 12 on a neutral court and at Northeastern by five.

The Crimson’s best win was an 11 point win over Texas A&M. Harvard also beat UMass by 34 and Siena by three but besides that has not played any other teams ranked better than No. 237 in KenPom.

Harvard is led in scoring by senior point guard Bryce Aiken who is averaging 16.7 points per game. Aiken has been dinged up this season and has only played in seven games. He played against George Washington on December 21 but sat out the next day when Harvard played Howard. Aiken takes the majority of Harvard’s shots when on the floor and is top-20 in the nation at drawing fouls. At 6-0, he’s the smallest Crimson hooper but when he’s on the floor has the ability to make plays. He’s also one of Harvard’s only three-point threats.

The Crimson’s other two players averaging in double figures are Noah Kirkwood, who is a 6-7 wing and Chris Lewis, who is a large-bodied 6-9, 235-pound senior center. While he doesn’t get a ton of playing time, junior combo guard Rio Haskett is leading the team in three-point percentage and is tied with Aiken for most three-point attempts so far on the season.

Harvard’s most-used lineup of Aiken, Justin Bassey, Kirkwood, Robert Baker, and Lewis are tall. Bassey plays the two-position and is 6-5 while at the four, Baker is a wiry 6-11, 205-pound senior.

When Cal has the Ball

If there were ever a game where Cal decided to jack up threes, this is it. Teams are shooting 36.8% against Harvard on the season, which puts the Crimson at No. 304 in the country on three-point defense. It’s really the only thing Havard does badly on defense. They’re also not great at forcing non-steal turnovers, which is a good thing for Cal. Harvard packs the paint and defends the interior well, but the Bears could find some success shooting over the Crimson.

When Harvard has the Ball

The Crimson are an interior team, statistically. They rebound the offensive glass at a high rate and are making the two-point shot at a high clip. Harvard isn’t a great three-point shooting team but Cal hasn’t been great at defending the three-point line. 

Keys to the game

Shoot the three

Cal makes a lot of threes at home. But overall on the season, Cal is generating just 24.2% of its points from three despite being a top-25 three-point shooting team percentage-wise. Cal’s three-point attempt to field goal attempt is 27.0, which is 345^th in the country. If Cal can get going from three and then maintain, this game could tilt heavily towards Cal. But if the Bears aren’t getting clean looks or not taking many attempts, this game should play more into the Crimson’s favor.

Contain Aiken (if he plays)

Aiken is a smart, talented lead guard. As stated above, he draws a ton of fouls. The Bears haven’t been great keeping quick and shifty lead guards in front of them. But Aiken is not playing at 100% at the moment. If Aiken is able to have his way with the Cal backcourt, this game gets a lot tougher for the Bears. But if they’re able to keep Aiken in check, Harvard gets limited on playmakers and scorers.

Get Andre Kelly involved

The forward looked to be playing his best basketball against Saint Mary’s and before getting into foul trouble against Boston College. Teams are just going to keep focusing on Matt Bradley and the other perimeter players unless a guy like Andre Kelly or Lars Thiemann start having big games. This would be a great time to get the frontcourt going before heading into Pac-12 play. 

KenPom Projects … Harvard - 68, Cal - 66 (59% Harvard win chance)

Go Bears!