Hours before Thursday’s matchup against the Stanford Cardinal, Washington head coach Mike Hopkins announced a big blow to the Huskies’ season and NCAA Tournament hopes: Sophomore guard Quade Green is academically ineligible for the winter quarter, which doesn’t end until March 20th.
The former five-star recruit and McDonald’s All-American was averaging 11.6 points and 5.3 assists in his first season at UW after transferring from Kentucky. Not only is UW losing point production and its leading passer, but Green has also been the offensive facilitator for the Huskies this season. Washington will now rely on sophomore Elijah Hardy who has been averaging 0.8 points, 0.9 assists, and just 7.9 minutes a game. Freshman guard Marcus Tsohonis and sophomore guard Jamal Bey can also potentially provide some help for the Huskies at the point guard position. Hardy played 31 minutes on Thursday night in Palo Alto.
Even with Green’s absence, it took a fierce come-back by the Cardinal to overcome the Huskies and win 61-55. The loss dropped the Huskies to 1-2 in the conference after an opening home loss to UCLA and then a 32-point drubbing of USC, also at home, last Saturday.
The Bears are getting the Huskies at a good time as they have not yet had time to re-adjust or game plan for Green’s absence.
When Cal has the Ball
Cal’s offense versus Washington’s defense
| Stat |
Cal |
UW |
| Adj. Eff. |
99.5 (189) |
89.7 (23) |
| Avg. Poss. Length |
18.8 (310) |
18.9 (350) |
| Eff. FG% |
49.2% (181) |
43.1% (15) |
| TO% |
20.5% (240) |
20.9% (94) |
| Off. Reb. % |
25.7% (252) |
31.7% (304) |
| FTA/FGA |
37.5 (63) |
24.4 (36) |
| 3P% |
36.7% (45) |
31.6% (115) |
| 2P% |
47.0% (251) |
40.4% (4) |
| FT% |
73.6% (79) |
67.1% (75) |
| Block% |
8.9% (182) |
17.3% (6) |
| Steal% |
6.5% (11) |
10.8% (77) |
| Non-Stl TO% |
14.0% (347) |
10.0% (194) |
When Hopkins left Syracuse for Seattle three years ago, he brought the zone with him. It took one season of adjustment, but last year Washington’s defense ranked No. 18 in KenPoms adjusted defensive efficiency and it’s currently tracking at No. 23 this season. It will be one of the toughest defensive teams Cal will play this season.
The Huskies are aided with some big-time length. Now that Green is out, Hardy is the only player in Washington’s main rotation that is less than 6-6. If the Huskies would go with Bey at the point, they likely wouldn’t have anyone on the floor shorter than 6-6.
Even with the height, Washington’s biggest defensive weakness so far has been keeping teams off the offensive glass. Opponents are currently averaging an offensive rebounding rate of 31.7%, which ranks 304th in the country. Cal could find a way to manufacture some second-chance points. Washington hasn’t been great at guarding the perimeter, where teams are averaging 31.6%.
However, the Huskies are in the top-five at two-point defense and top-six in blocked shots. Teams are averaging just 40.4% inside the three-point arc against the Huskies. Washington also doesn’t foul very much and ranks 36th in the country for opponents’ free throw to field goal attempt ratio.
When Washington has the Ball
Washington’s offense versus Cal’s defense
| Stat |
UW |
Cal |
| Adj. Eff. |
104.5 (95) |
101.3 (185) |
| Avg. Poss. Length |
15.3 (15) |
17.6 (241) |
| Eff. FG% |
52.4% (66) |
48.8% (165) |
| TO% |
21.5% (283) |
17.4% (289) |
| Off. Reb. % |
28.6% (152) |
27.3% (136) |
| FTA/FGA |
41.8 (14) |
35.4 (250) |
| 3P% |
32.4% (198) |
36.0% (282) |
| 2P% |
54.3% (34) |
45.4% (77) |
| FT% |
70.6% (161) |
74.7% (328) |
| Block% |
5.4% (4) |
7.8% (216) |
| Steal% |
9.1% (163) |
5.6% (352) |
| Non-Stl TO% |
12.4% (317) |
11.8% (58) |
UW hasn’t been a super-efficient offensive team this year, but they do a few things really well. They draw fouls and get to the line, make two-point shots at an efficient clip (54.3%), and don’t get blocked. This largely has to do with the play of blue-chip freshmen forwards Jaden McDaniels and Isaiah Stewart. Both are 6-9 but both have very different games. At 200 pounds, McDaniels primarily plays at the wing position. He’s one of the Huskies’ primary perimeter threats shooting 35% from three. Meanwhile, the 250-pound Isaiah Stewart plays primarily at the five spot and is averaging about 61% on two-point shots.
Both Stewart and McDaniels are matchup nightmares for many teams, but especially Cal. Stewart is leading the team with 18.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and as we’ve seen this season, Cal has had issues guarding athletic frontcourt players. With Juhwan Harris-Dyson likely out, Cal loses arguably its best perimeter defender. So you likely have to put 6-4 Matt Bradley or 6-8 Grant Anticevich on McDaniels. Obviously, with Bradley, you’re giving up five inches and with Anticevich you then have to put Bradley on another one of UW’s 6-9 players or do some weird lineup with Anticevich, Andre Kelly, and Lars Thiemann at the same time. Neither scenario is ideal.
That said, UW definitely hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut this season. An offensive efficiency of 104.5 is good but not great. We’ve seen Cal throw some zone in. Maybe that’s what they do here, although it’s probably less effective on a team like UW that practices against the zone pretty much all the time.
KenPom says … 70-62, Washington win (76% UW win chance)
Washington has been all over the place this year. It opened the season by beating a very good Baylor team and then opened the conference by losing to a very bad UCLA team. It lost substantially to a Tennessee team that is not great and then hung close to a good Houston team and let Stanford sneak away with a win at the Farm. This is a game Cal probably loses more times than it wins, but the Bears are getting UW at a good time. This could be a game Cal can steal if they get very strong play from Bradley and one or two others.
