2020 Cal Hoops Player Review: Joel Brown

Joel Brown was largely considered the Class of 2019’s most heralded recruit. Originally recruited by Wyking Jones, the 6-2 point guard from Ontario ranked No. 195 in 247 Sport’s composite ranking stuck to his commitment and joined the Bears in Mark Fox’s first year.

Brown had the epitome of a freshman season. He had some very promising and solid games like at home against Utah when he scored 11 points in 15 minutes on 3-of-4 shooting from the field and 5-of-6 from the free-throw line. And then he had clunkers like at USC when he had one point in 23 minutes and went 0-of-4 from the field (all three-point attempts) and 1-of-4 from the free-throw line.

There were brilliant games like against Wazzu in Berkeley when Brown notched a career-high four assists to zero turnovers in 26 minutes. And then there were games like the one at Utah in which Brown had three turnovers and zero assists in 20 minutes. Such is life as a freshman in a power conference.

But overall, Brown proved to be a potential building block for the revival of Cal’s hoops program. According to multiple sites, Brown is up to 192 pounds from the 180 his recruiting profiles say. At 6-2 and nearly 200 pounds, he’s got a good frame and size to be a solid Pac-12 point guard. 

In conference play, Brown improved in many categories. His average offensive rating in conference-only games was 83.6 compared to 77.7 over the entire season. Brown’s assist rate climbed from 18.4 as a season average to 18.9 in Pac-12 games. And his turnover rate dropped from 26.7 for the overall season to 21.8 in conference games. Those are all encouraging stats for the greenhorn.

Of course, Brown also has some areas in which he needs to improve if he wants to move to the next level. Shooting is the main culprit. Overall, Brown shot 35.6% (21-of-59) for two-point shots and 30.8% (8-of-26) from three on the season. His free-throw shooting left quite a bit to be desired as he went 12-of-30 (40%) from the charity stripe. 

Brown also struggled against Tier A opponents. His average offensive rating against Tier A opponents was just 63.7. He shot 16.7% from the free-throw line, 33.3% from inside the arc, and 12.5% from three against Tier A competition. The good news? Brown played his best as a true point guard against Tier A opponents, averaging an assist rate of 23.9 — much higher than his overall season average of 18.4.

This is a small sample size — and each situation is different at each school in terms of rotation and need — but I like to compare how freshmen do compared to those that were ranked around them in high school recruiting rankings. As you can see from the chart above, Brown was pretty similar in minutes played per game compared to the average of his peers. But his possession rate and shot rate were both lower.

This is likely due to at least two factors. First, Brown played the majority of the season — especially from mid-season on — behind senior point guard Paris Austin. His shot and possession rate didn’t need to be as high. He also wasn’t the focal point of the offense. That was Matt Bradley, Kareem South, Grant Anticevich, and Andre Kelly. And, of course, Austin when they were on the court at the same time.

Overall, Brown had one of the lower offensive rating averages compared to his peers. Only North Carolina’s Jeremiah Francis had a lower average at 72.2. Brown did have an above-average assist rate and above-average free-throw rate. Although, that was basically negated by his 40% average from the free-throw line.

This all shows what many likely saw this season with the eye-ball test. Brown’s season was good at times and not good at others. But overall, it was a pretty average freshman season. That’s not to take anything away from Brown. He didn’t need to be great as Austin had the best season of his collegiate career. 

But now it’s time for Brown to take the reigns. He’ll be counted on to play a lot of minutes this season as he’s the team’s only true point guard. The good news is Fox has done a decent job at plugging in some scorers around him and Brown won’t be relied on for large scoring volume.