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Cal Basketball

The Basketball Talent Drain

December 28, 2021
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In College basketball, it more often than comes down to talent.  A small handful of players can make all the difference.

Cal basketball has not been a powerhouse but for most of this century, they were a consistent top half of the Pac12 program that would see postseason play of some kind two of every three seasons and routinely filled up Haas Pavilion.

They are now a bottom dwelling program that plays in a near empty home court.

Why?  Well, it may be correlated to who is the head coach but it’s certainly not the overriding factor.  It’s far more about talent.  We take a look at every Cal roster since 2004-5, breaking it down not by recruiting rankings but rather by the ceiling of the players as based on their subsequent professional careers. We will note players who achieved All Conference status as well.  Based on this, we’re going to assign points:

NBA First Rounder = 3 points

NBA Player = 2 points

Meaningful Overseas Career = 1 point

Associated Press
Devon Hardin

2004-5:  (13-16)

Total Points:  5

NBA First Rounders:  None

NBA Players:  Dominic McGuire

Meaningful Overseas Career:   Rod Benson, Ayinde Ubaka, Devon Hardin (NBA Draft Choice)

Other:  Marquise Kately, Pac 10 All Freshman Team

 

Cal Athletics
Leon Powe

2005-6:  (20-11) - NCAA Tournament

Total Points:  5

NBA First Rounders:  None

NBA Players:  Leon Powe (All American)

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Rod Benson, Devon Hardin (NBA Draft Choice), Ayinde Ubaka

Other:

 

Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Ryan Anderson

2006-7: (16-17)

Total Points:  7

NBA First Rounders:  Ryan Anderson

NBA Players:  Patrick Christopher (2 Time AP12 First Team)

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Jerome Randle (2 Time AP12 First Team and P12 POY), Devon Hardin (NBA Draft Choice)

Other:  

Lee Suzuki/The Chronicle
Patrick Christopher

2007-8:  (17-16) - NIT

Total Points:  7

NBA First Rounders:  Ryan Andereson

NBA Players:  Patrick Christopher (2 Time AP12 First Team), 

Meaningful Overseas Career: Jerome Randle (2 Time AP12 First Team and P12 POY), Devon Hardin (NBA Draft Choice)

Other:  Harper Kamp (2 Time AP12), Theo Robertson (2nd Team AP12)

 

Michael Macor/The Chronicle
Jorge Gutierrez

2008-9:  (22-11) - NCAA

Total Points:  6

NBA First Rounders:

NBA Players: Jorge Gutierrez (P12 POY), Patrick Christopher (2 Time AP12 First Team)

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Jerome Randle (2 Time AP12 First Team and P12 POY), Max Zhang (Chinese National Team)

Other:  Harper Kamp (2 Time AP12), Theo Robertson (2nd Team AP12)

 

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images
Jerome Randle

2009-10:  (24-11) - NCAA and P12 Champions

Total Points:  6

NBA First Rounders:

NBA Players: Jorge Gutierrez (P12 POY), Patrick Christopher (2 Time AP12 First Team)

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Jerome Randle (2 Time AP12 First Team and P12 POY), Max Zhang (Chinese National Team)

Other:  Harper Kamp (2 Time AP12), Theo Robertson (2nd Team AP12)

 

USA Today Sports
Allen Crabbe

2010-2011:  (18-15) - NIT

Total Points:  7

NBA First Rounders: Allen Crabbe

NBA Players:  Jorge Gutierrez (P12 POY), Richard Solomon

Meaningful Overseas Career:  None

Other:   Harper Kamp (2 Time AP12)

 

Don Ryan/Associated Press
Harper Kamp

2011-12:  (24-10) - NCAA

Total Points: 9

NBA First Rounders:  Allen Crabbe

NBA Players:  Jorge Gutierrez (P12 POY), Richard Solomon

Meaningful Overseas Career:  David Kravish (AP12 Freshman), Justin Cobbs (1st Team AP12),  

Other:  Harper Kamp (2 Time AP12)

 

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Tyrone Wallace

2012-13: (21-12) - NCAA

Total Points:  9

NBA First Rounders:  Allen Crabbe

NBA Players:  Tyrone Wallace, Richard Solomon

Meaningful Overseas Career: David Kravish (AP12 Freshman), Justin Cobbs (1st Team AP12),  

Other:  Roger M’boute Bidias (Long time NBA G League player)

 

Ezra Shaw / Getty Images
Richard Solomon

2013-14:  (21-14) - NIT

Total Points:  9

NBA First Rounders:  

NBA Players:  Tyrone Wallace, Jabari Bird, Richard Solomon

Meaningful Overseas Career:  David Kravish (AP12 Freshman), Justin Cobbs (1st Team AP12),  Jordan Mathews

Other:  Roger M’boute Bidias (Long time NBA G League player)

 

Ben Margot/Associated Press
Jabari Bird

2014-15:  (18-15)

Total Points:  6

NBA First Rounders:

NBA Players:  Tyrone Wallace, Jabari Bird

Meaningful Overseas Career:  David Kravish (AP12 Freshman), Jordan Mathews

Other: Stephen Domingo and Roger M’boute Bidias (Long time NBA G League player)

 

Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Jordan Mathews

2015-16:  (23-11) NCAA

Total Points:  10

NBA First Rounders: Jaylen Brown

NBA Players:  Tyrone Wallace, Jabari Bird, Ivan Rabb

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Jordan Mathews

Other: Stephen Domingo and Roger M’boute Bidias (Long time NBA G League player)

 

Connor Radnovich/The Chronicle
Ivan Rabb

2016-17: (21-13) NIT

Total Points:  4

NBA First Rounders: 

NBA Players:  Jabari Bird, Ivan Rabb

Meaningful Overseas Career:  

Other: Stephen Domingo and Roger M’boute Bidias (Long time NBA G League player)

 

David Zalubowski/Associated Press
Marcus Lee

2017-18:  (8-24)

Total Points:  2-3

NBA First Rounders: 

NBA Players:  

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Marcus Lee, Justice Sueing (Likely), Grant Anticevich (possible)

Other:

 

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Bradley

2018-19: (8-23)

Total Points:  3-5

NBA First Rounders: 

NBA Players:  Matt Bradley (possible)

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Justice Sueing (Likely), Andre Kelly (Likely), Grant Anticevich (possible),

Other:

 

© Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Andre Kelly

2019-20: (14-18)

Total Points:  2-4

NBA First Rounders: 

NBA Players:   Matt Bradley (possible - 2x AP12 2nd Team)

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Andre Kelly (Likely), Grant Anticevich (possible),

Other:

 

Nick Grace / Utah Athletics
Grant Anticevich

2020-21:  (9-20)

Total Points:  2-3

NBA First Rounders: 

NBA Players:   Matt Bradley (possible - 2x AP12 2nd Team)

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Andre Kelly (Likely), Grant Anticevich (possible),

Other:

 

calbears.com
Jordan Shepherd

2021-22:  (TBD)

Total Points:  2-4

NBA First Rounders: 

NBA Players:   

Meaningful Overseas Career:  Andre Kelly (Likely), Jordan Shepherd (likely), Grant Anticevich (possible)

Other:  Sam Alajaki (potential to make this list in future)

 

Aggregated:

  • This analysis covers 18 Seasons
  • From 2004 to 2017 (14 Seasons), Cal has had at least one future NBA player on its roster.  
  • From 2006 to 2016, (11 Seasons) Cal had at least two future NBA players on its roster
  • Five Seasons Cal had three or more future NBA players on its roster
  • Since Cuonzo Martin left Berkeley, Cal has recruited only one player with real NBA potential (according to our evaluation) and that’s Matt Bradley who transferred to San Diego State
  • It’s clear that in order to be successful, it requires a roster with at least six or seven points (per our approach)   It’s been many seasons since that was the case in Berkeley and it’s hard to see the current roster either this year (and particularly next) having that level of talent.  
  • The conclusion on the primary recipe for college basketball success:  Recruiting, recruiting, recruiting
Discussion from...

The Basketball Talent Drain

11,870 Views | 43 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by bearister
calumnus
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In reply to Big C • 6:48p, 12/29/21
Big C said:
calumnus said:
BearoutEast67 said:
calumnus said:
BearoutEast67 said:
Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!


We have always been a strong academic school. However, as I documented above, over a 37 year span (recent years still TBD) Cal had 2 future NBA players on the roster in an average year.

Just six years ago we had 4. That is not ancient history. You really cannot blame academic restrictions for the lack of future NBA talent. Stanford and Duke recruit well and we have in the past as well.

Just look at Fox's teams at Georgia, in 9 years he landed only 3 top 100 players. One elite player, Caldwell-Pope, then no Top 100 players for years after until a couple of lower ranked Georgia guys that never made the NBA. Can you blame his poor recruiting at Georgia on "academic restrictions"? Do they have any? Cal recruited far better over the same time period. The coaches before and now after him recruited much better at Georgia. Every coach at Cal in the last 40+ years has recruited better. Yes, even Kutchen and Wyking. He has landed zero Top 100 recruits since he has been here and we have none on the radar. I like and root for the guys he has landed, but I always like and root for Cal players.


You're missing my point. With your logic, this 2021-2022 team is worse than last years, as we don't have a possible NBA player on the roster. Yet, this year's team has won more games and plays measurably better than last year, when Bradley's teammates stood around to watch him shoot or drive.

Wins lead to better recruiting


Last year we mostly played PAC-12 teams. We had only 6 OOC games and went 5-1, beating Northwest University, Nichols State, USF, CSU Northridge, and Seattle while losing to Pepperdine.

This year we have had 11 OOC games and have gone 7-4, losing to UCSD, UNLV, Florida, Seton Hall, but beating USD, Southern Utah, FSU, Idaho State, Santa Clara, Dartmouth and Pacific.

Ken Pom has us as #108, a marginal improvement over last year's #114.

I know it's a refreshing change as of late to have eight wins before Christmas, but just looking at the names of those teams we beat (pus Oregon St) is enough to keep my wild enthusiasm in check.


In Wyking Jones' first year we had 7 wins at this point, including a 20 point win over Northridge, a 22 point win @Seattle and big wins on the road @San Diego State and @Stanford.

We only won 1 game (Oregon State at Haas) after the New Year.
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SFCityBear
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In reply to calumnus • 7:25p, 12/29/21
calumnus said:
Gobears49 said:
BGGB2 said:
Richard Solomon was an NBA player?
Yes. For ten days. On the roster, I guess, but probably didn't play. Did not check on that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)

Oklahoma City Thunder (2019)[edit]

"On February 14, 2019 he signed a 10 day contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder,[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Solomon_(basketball)#cite_note-18][18][/url]"



Solomon averaged a double-double his senior year and was one of the best big men in the conference, our MVP according to the advanced stats (much like Kelly last year) but you would never have known it reading these boards.
He led the PAC 12 in rebounds per game that year, against the likes of Aaron Gordon, Kaleb Tarczewski, Josh Scott, Dwight Powell, Jordan Bachyniski, and DJ Shelton.

Unfortunately, he is still not the model citizen, getting arrested twice for cannabis.
SFCityBear
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KenBurnski
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8:08p, 12/29/21
Lol
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calumnus
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In reply to monol96 • 9:48p, 12/29/21
monol96 said:
kenpom rankings still have preseason projections baked in I believe. I'm not sure what we were ranked to start the season but we have probably been playing a bit better than 108th this season to have that ranking



Here are the current rankings in Sagarin:

Seton Hall is #24 Loss
Florida is #27 Loss
Utah is #66 Loss
Fresno State #91 Win
Santa Clara is #95 Win
Cal is #121
Southern Utah is #134 Win
OSU is #136 Win
UNLV is #158 Loss
USD is #208 Win
Dartmouth is #235 Win
UOP is #245 Win
UCSD is #261 Loss

Fresno State and Santa Clara are good home wins, UNLV and especially UCSD are bad losses. Sagarin Recent has us at #95, which with the Ken Pom #108 ranking feels like the ballpark until more data is in.

Stanford will be a good test: #97 in Predictor, #71 in Recent and #89 in Ken Pom.

Right now I would say there are three very good teams in the PAC-12: Arizona, UCLA and USC and two bottom-dwelling wankers: OSU and UW, with everyone else, Cal included, fighting for 4 to 10.
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HearstMining
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In reply to oskidunker • 7:20a, 12/30/21
oskidunker said:
calumnus said:
BearoutEast67 said:
calumnus said:
BearoutEast67 said:
Coaching and team play matter. Basketball is such an ugly game when it is played via isolation thru an individual star player or two. Cal will not likely see 3-4 stars on one team, ever, in large part due to its academic rigor. However, the current team play and development are to be applauded. I look forward to seeing the Bears play in the Pac-12 season. Forget the NBA expectations- this is college basketball!


We have always been a strong academic school. However, as I documented above, over a 37 year span (recent years still TBD) Cal had 2 future NBA players on the roster in an average year.

Just six years ago we had 4. That is not ancient history. You really cannot blame academic restrictions for the lack of future NBA talent. Stanford and Duke recruit well and we have in the past as well.

Just look at Fox's teams at Georgia, in 9 years he landed only 3 top 100 players. One elite player, Caldwell-Pope, then no Top 100 players for years after until a couple of lower ranked Georgia guys that never made the NBA. Can you blame his poor recruiting at Georgia on "academic restrictions"? Do they have any? Cal recruited far better over the same time period. The coaches before and now after him recruited much better at Georgia. Every coach at Cal in the last 40+ years has recruited better. Yes, even Kutchen and Wyking. He has landed zero Top 100 recruits since he has been here and we have none on the radar. I like and root for the guys he has landed, but I always like and root for Cal players.


You're missing my point. With your logic, this 2021-2022 team is worse than last years, as we don't have a possible NBA player on the roster. Yet, this year's team has won more games and plays measurably better than last year, when Bradley's teammates stood around to watch him shoot or drive.

Wins lead to better recruiting


Last year we mostly played PAC-12 teams. We had only 6 OOC games and went 5-1, beating Northwest University, Nichols State, USF, CSU Northridge, and Seattle while losing to Pepperdine.

This year we have had 11 OOC games and have gone 7-4, losing to UCSD, UNLV, Florida, Seton Hall, but beating USD, Southern Utah, FSU, Idaho State, Santa Clara, Dartmouth and Pacific.

Ken Pom has us as #108, a marginal improvement over last year's #114.
Plus we beat The Beaver Believers
I forgot that Cal beat USF last year. I watched the Dons beat (barely) ASU on Pac-12 network last week and Cal would have a hard time winning that matchup if they played this year.
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82gradDLSdad
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In reply to dimitrig • 8:36a, 12/30/21
dimitrig said:
Bobodeluxe said:
What's a "montly nut", and are they good?


It's what the wife calls date night.


I can only dream of getting it montly.
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FloriDreaming
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In reply to calbear80 • 12:59p, 12/30/21
calbear80 said:
Cal MBB's current situation is the direct result of:

. AD Mike Williams hiring some guy to coach MBB
. AD Jim Knowlton hiring Mark Fox To coach MBB

GO Bears!
Yep. And MBB's current recruiting woes are a direct result of above as well.
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bearister
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1:36p, 12/30/21
Doesn't Cal have any tech billionaire alums that would be willing, under the the NCAA NIL Rules, to pay top caliber hoop recruits several hundred thousand dollars a year to appear in advertisements for their companies?
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
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