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The Latest on Conference Realignment - August 5th

August 5, 2022
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Slowly but surely, things are getting clearer in the wake of USC and UCLAs departure from the Pac-12.    There are three near-term events happening that will meaningfully impact Cal’s future in athletics:

The Board of Regents will meet again on August 17th at which time UCLA Chancellor Gene Block will present how and why the Bruins' move to the B10 benefits the entire UC System.  Given the very pointed rancor with which Governor Newsom and the Regents greeted Block two weeks ago, there’s every reason to believe Block will be in appeasement mode.  It does not appear the Governor or the Regents can directly change or modify the decision Block has made if UCLA chooses to continue on this course.  However, as it concerns Block’s career and UCLA's political capital going forward, there are clearly a lot of reasons for UCLA to find a win: win solution.   Whether that encompasses lobbying Fox and the B10 on behalf of Cal for membership to the B10 and/or a sharing of UCLA's newfound largesse is unclear.

Secondly, the Pac-12 is all but certain to extend the exclusive negotiating period with ESPN.   Media consultants working on behalf of the individual schools and the Pac 12 are putting their best foot forward to show the potential value of the conference’s sports content to ESPN.  The ability to own the time slots after 430pm, the meaningful size of the remaining markets on the West Coast, and the historical legacy and the underlying value of the brand will be pushed to drive as high of a price as possible from ESPN.  That bid is relevant not only in looking to bridge the gap financially for the Pac-12 schools should the conference stay together, but it also creates leverage for the Pac-12 to then discuss possible additions to the conference and perhaps even fulsome mergers with the likes of the ACC and B12.  Without a strong media partner and market-relevant dollars in their pocket, the Pac-12’s options become limited at a time of conference consolidation.  Look for the Pac-12 to augment any bid it receives from ESPN (or post the exclusive period, Fox) with a streaming deal.  Apple seems the most likely winner of that part of the auction.  Perhaps more meaningful for Cal, if ESPN can put forward a relevant offer, that will force Fox and the B10s hand.  They will have a short window to bring on additional West Coast programs before they make a long-term commitment to a new broadcast deal and they will understand the magnitude of dollars they will have to offer to those schools to move to the B10.  

Meanwhile, the B10 is finalizing its negotiations with Fox on their new broadcast deal.  This is expected to happen within the next 3 weeks.  Once this is complete, the B10 can look at its goals beyond the value of its Football Media rights and can then with Fox decide how bringing on a Cal, Stanford, Oregon, or Washington fits their mission as well as their new financial reality.  Prior to the conclusion of the B10/FOX negotiations, the B10 is not going to reach out to anyone

We continue to hear that Notre Dame is not a near-term viable option for the B10 and that they will renew their rights with NBC (with a hefty uptick in revenue) as well as their commitment to the ACC outside of Football.    Fox is then left searching for the largest possible media markets they can leverage against their huge new commitment to the B10 whilst the B10 looks to manage for a.) strong academic and reputational fit; b.) a solution to mitigate meaningful travel and time away from classroom concerns for non Football teams, and c.) a further consolidation of power to influence the overall future of College Football and the NCAA (e.g. NIL, Playoffs, Scheduling).   Cal and Stanford are in close contact with one another and in lockstep on goals and intentions.   That doesn’t mean that the two rivals will move as one on any decision as each school has to look out for its own best interests and a surprise move by Notre Dame to join the B10 followed by a singular invitation from the B10 to Stanford would almost certainly see the Cardinal leave the Bears behind.

Over the past few weeks, the media narrative around Cal’s future has changed.  It’s become more clear that FOX and ESPN are driving the bus and that potential market size and viewership dynamics will be paramount to any new decisions.  It’s also become clear that the B10 wants to add academic prestige and like-minded institutions, as it looks to simultaneously maximize the revenue potential of its athletic programs and its influence on key decisions surrounding the future of College Athletics.   Thus, Cal and Stanford are being increasingly mentioned as FOX and the B10s likely top choices for expansion.   Further, it’s not lost on USC and UCLA that their non-Football Sports are going to be meaningfully negatively impacted by long-distance travel that pulls students away from the classroom as well as family and friends who want to watch them participate in their respective sports.  Finally, UCLA may become Cal’s biggest cheerleader to join the B10 given the clear stance taken by the Governor and the Regents.

Discussion from...

The Latest on Conference Realignment - August 5th

3,157 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by eastcoastcal
michiganbear
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The big ten will soon expand it is inevitable IMO. It makes financial sense for UCLA and USC want Cal and Stanford to join. Those are the biggest matchups as far as fan attendance goes and will also help with the other sports. The Bay Area will not be left out of the big ten. Mark it down!
bearsandgiants
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Sunshine pumping, admin style! Hoping for the best, I guess.
gardenstatebear
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It's optimistic, but it's not sunshine pumping IMHO. There are good reasons for the Big Ten to want Cal.
berserkeley
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OK. First, why do people spell it Newsome? Is there some meaning behind the added "e" at the end that I'm unaware of? Second, this is basically summarizes how I've seen the situation so naturally I am biased into believing this article. I don't really understand the B1G adding USC and UCLA in isolation.

The B1G was estimated to get about $100M/team before adding USC and UCLA and they've been estimated to receive $100M/team since adding USC and UCLA so it seems like all they accomplished was maybe a few extra million more per school, but creating a logistical nightmare for themselves in the process. What good does owning the LA market give you if all the money you get from that goes directly to two teams who weren't in your conference yesterday?

The only way it makes sense to me is if the B1G's true goal is to control the largest number of large like minded college athletic programs so that the SEC does not set the new rules during this period of major upheaval in college athletics. And the B1G doesn't achieve that goal if they stop expansion with USC and UCLA. Hoping we're all reading the tea leaves correctly because Cal and Stanford would indeed appear to be next in line if this is the case.
fat_slice
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This is going to play out like the Mack Rose Bowl ... Something dumb (city of Berkeley, admin forgetting to sign some papers or look up some details like that one recruit we had Boss T., a competitors leadership out pitching us) that we will be left behind.

I can feel it ony blood as this would be typiCal.
Rushinbear
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michiganbear said:

The big ten will soon expand it is inevitable IMO. It makes financial sense for UCLA and USC want Cal and Stanford to join. Those are the biggest matchups as far as fan attendance goes and will also help with the other sports. The Bay Area will not be left out of the big ten. Mark it down!
It only makes sense if UW and UO go, too. A 4 team pod still means lottsa travel. A stronger Pac starts to look better and better, esp if UCLA is forced to share their ill-gotten gains.
gardenstatebear
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Rushinbear said:

michiganbear said:

The big ten will soon expand it is inevitable IMO. It makes financial sense for UCLA and USC want Cal and Stanford to join. Those are the biggest matchups as far as fan attendance goes and will also help with the other sports. The Bay Area will not be left out of the big ten. Mark it down!
It only makes sense if UW and UO go, too. A 4 team pod still means lottsa travel. A stronger Pac starts to look better and better, esp if UCLA is forced to share their ill-gotten gains.
It makes the most sense if UW and UO also go, but even having just Cal and Stanford is better for USC and UCLA than for them to be the only Pacific Coast members.
Rushinbear
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gardenstatebear said:

Rushinbear said:

michiganbear said:

The big ten will soon expand it is inevitable IMO. It makes financial sense for UCLA and USC want Cal and Stanford to join. Those are the biggest matchups as far as fan attendance goes and will also help with the other sports. The Bay Area will not be left out of the big ten. Mark it down!
It only makes sense if UW and UO go, too. A 4 team pod still means lottsa travel. A stronger Pac starts to look better and better, esp if UCLA is forced to share their ill-gotten gains.
It makes the most sense if UW and UO also go, but even having just Cal and Stanford is better for USC and UCLA than for them to be the only Pacific Coast members.
They're beginning to wonder if only those 2 are a good idea. Keeping up a strong appearance. But...
fat_slice
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Why is it that reporters covering the pac-10 leave our cal in B1G consideration if all of the above is true.

Here is the latest example of that:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-ad-says-remaining

Mentions, UO, W, and Stanford ... Did they forget where Cal is located?
Bobodeluxe
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fat_slice said:

Why is it that reporters covering the pac-10 leave our cal in B1G consideration if all of the above is true.

Here is the latest example of that:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-ad-says-remaining

Mentions, UO, W, and Stanford ... Did they forget where Cal is located?
Afraid to compete. (Registered Bear Insider)
Alkiadt
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fat_slice said:

This is going to play out like the Mack Rose Bowl ... Something dumb (city of Berkeley, admin forgetting to sign some papers or look up some details like that one recruit we had Boss T., a competitors leadership out pitching us) that we will be left behind.



I can feel it ony blood as this would be typiCal.


Jesus dude.
Give it a rest. Every post you make is redundant.
You have no clue (like everyone else) as to what's transpiring behind the scenes. Your running commentary is really getting old.
fat_slice
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Alkiadt said:

fat_slice said:

This is going to play out like the Mack Rose Bowl ... Something dumb (city of Berkeley, admin forgetting to sign some papers or look up some details like that one recruit we had Boss T., a competitors leadership out pitching us) that we will be left behind.



I can feel it ony blood as this would be typiCal.


Jesus dude.
Give it a rest. Every post you make is redundant.
You have no clue (like everyone else) as to what's transpiring behind the scenes. Your running commentary is really getting old.


Every post is about realignment with really nothing materially knew. So thousands of posts are currently redundant but guess what ... That is the biggest topic right now.

I'm just bringing up examples to show those with an optimistic view that the realistic view should account for thie historical failure on and off the field for the football program. I would love them to make it to the B1G as I am a huge fan and will sorely miss going to the games (will not go if you are no longer relevant). Heck - I even love(d) night games at memorial.
BearSD
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There's only one scenario that would really be a devastating blow: If the Big Ten takes in a second group of Pac teams and Cal isn't among that group.

If it's just USC and UCLA going to the Big Ten, our Bears will be okay in the long run. Not wonderful, but okay.
fat_slice
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BearSD said:

There's only one scenario that would really be a devastating blow: If the Big Ten takes in a second group of Pac teams and Cal isn't among that group.

If it's just USC and UCLA going to the Big Ten, our Bears will be okay in the long run. Not wonderful, but okay.


Totally agree with that. The absolute worst of that being they just take one team, Stanford, to pair with ND (will never understand that) and claim that they have the Bay area market.
StillNoStanfurdium
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fat_slice said:

Why is it that reporters covering the pac-10 leave our cal in B1G consideration if all of the above is true.

Here is the latest example of that:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-ad-says-remaining

Mentions, UO, W, and Stanford ... Did they forget where Cal is located?
Throughout this ordeal I've been increasingly made aware that our national reputation as a capable football team with fans is in the gutter. Our glory days under Tedford isn't actually that long ago but current freshman are pretty much too young to remember that we made it to #2 one week.
Bobodeluxe
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StillNoStanfurdium said:

fat_slice said:

Why is it that reporters covering the pac-10 leave our cal in B1G consideration if all of the above is true.

Here is the latest example of that:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-ad-says-remaining

Mentions, UO, W, and Stanford ... Did they forget where Cal is located?
Throughout this ordeal I've been increasingly made aware that our national reputation as a capable football team with fans is in the gutter. Our glory days under Tedford isn't actually that long ago but current freshman are pretty much too young to remember that we made it to #2 one week.
Clipboard.
eastcoastcal
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StillNoStanfurdium said:

fat_slice said:

Why is it that reporters covering the pac-10 leave our cal in B1G consideration if all of the above is true.

Here is the latest example of that:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-ad-says-remaining

Mentions, UO, W, and Stanford ... Did they forget where Cal is located?
Throughout this ordeal I've been increasingly made aware that our national reputation as a capable football team with fans is in the gutter. Our glory days under Tedford isn't actually that long ago but current freshman are pretty much too young to remember that we made it to #2 one week.
im a sophomore-- for the last 12 years (most of my waking memory) Cal hasn't had a winning conference record. i do understand the lack of respect of us as a brand that a lot of recruits might have. really underscores why its imperative we show out this season. 8-4 a must imo.
upsetof86
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eastcoastcal said:

StillNoStanfurdium said:

fat_slice said:

Why is it that reporters covering the pac-10 leave our cal in B1G consideration if all of the above is true.

Here is the latest example of that:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-ad-says-remaining

Mentions, UO, W, and Stanford ... Did they forget where Cal is located?
Throughout this ordeal I've been increasingly made aware that our national reputation as a capable football team with fans is in the gutter. Our glory days under Tedford isn't actually that long ago but current freshman are pretty much too young to remember that we made it to #2 one week.
im a sophomore-- for the last 12 years (most of my waking memory) Cal hasn't had a winning conference record. i do understand the lack of respect of us as a brand that a lot of recruits might have. really underscores why its imperative we show out this season. 8-4 a must imo.


Soph year rules. Watch that junior year tho, trap year.
eastcoastcal
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upsetof86 said:

eastcoastcal said:

StillNoStanfurdium said:

fat_slice said:

Why is it that reporters covering the pac-10 leave our cal in B1G consideration if all of the above is true.

Here is the latest example of that:
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-ad-says-remaining

Mentions, UO, W, and Stanford ... Did they forget where Cal is located?
Throughout this ordeal I've been increasingly made aware that our national reputation as a capable football team with fans is in the gutter. Our glory days under Tedford isn't actually that long ago but current freshman are pretty much too young to remember that we made it to #2 one week.
im a sophomore-- for the last 12 years (most of my waking memory) Cal hasn't had a winning conference record. i do understand the lack of respect of us as a brand that a lot of recruits might have. really underscores why its imperative we show out this season. 8-4 a must imo.


Soph year rules. Watch that junior year tho, trap year.
haha thanks for the advice, will keep in mind! Hope to meet some of the members on this board at a football or basketball game sometime.
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