Cal Men's Basketball Program - Looking back in order to look forward

Despite the historical levels of losing over the past four seasons, the team continued to play hard.  Unsurprisingly, the emotional resilience of the Bears has reached its limit.  After a near 30-point loss to Stanford last night, Cal has now lost three games in a row by more than twenty points, including embarrassing performances vs. two of the Pac-12’s worst teams in Oregon State and Stanford.

Five short years ago, it appeared that Cal had hired a coach who would staunch the bleeding that occurred after the capricious and ignominious hiring of Wyking Jones by then Athletic Director, Mike Williams.   While the decision to bring Mark Fox to Berkeley was not met with excitement from any corner, it appeared to be a safe hire.   Fox’s “success” at a basketball-impaired Georgia program and his resume from Nevada implied at the very least a reasonably high floor.   He brought what appeared to be a cultural and personality fit with Cal.  A cerebral and well-spoken head coach with high character, Fox shared many of the attributes that have made Justin Wilcox popular in Berkeley.

Yet, almost immediately, Mark Fox struggled.   And it became clear that what at first appeared to be an appropriate if uninspired hire, was in fact a mismatch of need and talent.   Mark Fox is a very capable basketball coach.  He earns the respect of his players and is an effective teacher and game planner.  To anyone who has had a chance to spend time with him, he’s hard not to like as his authenticity and character are obvious.   

The mismatch is simply that Cal, coming off two disastrous seasons under Coach Jones, needed an injection of energy, and excitement to go along with the rebuilding of a roster whose talent level had fallen off sharply following Cuonzo Martin’s decision to move on to Missouri.   Fox is not a lively personality, his relationship with the press can best be described as distrustful and distant and he’d rather have a roster built around harmonious humility rather than the type of dynamic talent that is essential to winning basketball games.  

While he didn’t have much of a window to re-recruit the returning talent he inherited on the roster, he was unable to hold on to leading scorer Justice Sueing and promising big man, Conner Vanover, both of whom transferred out to more promising situations.  Despairingly, his first recruiting class proved to be bereft of Pac-12-level starting talent.   A trend that didn’t change until the class of 2022.    And to add serious injury to the insult of Fox’s recruiting ineptitude, he not only failed to retain but to varying degrees pushed out the two most productive players of his tenure - Matt Bradley and Andre Kelly.  The idea that Fox put out discreetly to donors, was that these would be additions by subtraction.   Instead, it proved to be subtraction by subtraction.

Based on numerous conversations with AAU and high school coaches, opposing assistants, and long-time recruiting pundits, the picture of Coach Fox and his staff’s approach to attracting new talent became clear.  They strongly preferred not to cast a wide net, eschewing the relentless and nearly ubiquitous approach of attending every recruiting event in order to be seen and build the Bears’ brand, choosing instead to focus on a small handful of players they believed could help them AND that they believed they could land.  They relied on their belief that they could scout well enough to find hidden gems who would relish the opportunity to get a Cal degree and play at the Pac-12 level.  It’s not a huge leap to assume they were insecure about their ability to outsell other programs for players who were coveted.   The children of former Cal stars who had grown up fans of the program were ignored, seemingly because they would be highly sought-after players.  The comments that were consistently used to describe Fox and his staff on the recruiting trail from leading local and West Coast AAU and HS programs were, “We see the Cal staff far less than any other P12 program.” “They’re simply not very visible on the recruiting trail,” and, “My kid (almost always a future P12 player)  is interested in Cal but we haven’t heard from them”.

The scouting prowess Fox seemingly wanted to rely on proved to be illusory.  Not only did it lead to the creation of what is arguably the most talent-deficient roster among Power 5 programs nationally, but it also had glaring misses.  None more pointed than local star Aidan Mahaney, who as a true freshman is the best player on an always solid St. Marys team.  Creating energy for a program starts with recruiting and finding local talent would have been an instant win and provide a reason to attend games for an increasingly disinterested Bears fan base.  According to multiple sources, despite growing up in Cal’s backyard, Fox slow-played Mahaney as he was unsure he was a Pac-12-level player.  Only when Fox missed on two other combo guards he coveted more highly than Mahaney did he turn his attention to the Campolindo star. It was too little, too late as Mahaney felt far more comfortable with Randy Bennet who had made him a priority going back to his sophomore year in high school.  One source close to Mahaney shared that had Fox gone all in on Mahaney just 6 months earlier, the Gaels' leading scorer would now be in Berkeley.  And lest folks get confused about the “inherent” challenges of recruiting quality basketball players to Cal, a re-read of this data will be enlightening.

Despite the historical level of losing, to our knowledge, Fox hasn’t changed a single thing about his approach.  Zero turnover on a staff that has failed to recruit successfully or produce wins on the court sent the message to fans and donors, that he would rather fail epically on his terms than adjust or modify his approach.  As for the press, Fox has never allowed his assistants to be interviewed and limited access to his players to a degree that if not unprecedented in college basketball is close to it.  He was so overly controlling or paranoid or both that he would not even allow Cal’s own radio personalities to attend practice or talk with players.  

And the idea that Fox has somehow dealt with an unprecedented level of injuries during this 2022-23 season is misleading at best and unfortunate propaganda at worst.  Ask any coach in America whether he’d love to have a team with three 5^th year returning starters who rarely if ever miss a game and the answer you’ll get back is, “Hell Yes!.”  Fox has had Brown, Kuany, and Lars (all of whom he recruited and developed) available for 95%+ of this season.   The notion that DeJuan Clayton’s lack of availability earlier this season had a material impact has been shattered by his 29% FG shooting since returning seven games ago.  Jarred Hyder’s clearly shown over three years he’s not a Pac-12 level guard with his career 26% 3pt FG% and 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.  And though Celestine’s injury was unfortunate, it’s far from surprising given his health history even prior to coming to Berkeley.   And it’s not as if other college basketball programs haven’t faced injury challenges, it’s an issue for the vast majority of programs.   Summarily, it would take a very creative imagination to believe that even with Clayton, Askew, Hyder, and Celestine available that Cal would have been anything more than a .500 overall team finishing in the bottom third of the Pac-12.   Far easier to objectively evaluate a fully-healthy Cal roster as no better than the 11^th best in the Pac-12.  

As the Fox era winds down, it’s time to look forward.   Cal needs a coach who can be a change agent.  Who can galvanize donor and fan support to build the long-needed practice facility and bring Haas Pavilion back to its historical levels of attendance.  It requires a dynamic personality who will inspire hope and someone who will make the recruitment and retention of talent their top priority.    Someone who can see the Bears program as a glass that is half full.  Emphasizing the location, P5 conference, historical success, and academic prowess rather than lamenting the less-than-ideal (though improving) admissions situation and the lack of a practice facility.  Moreover, they need to take a page from Justin Wilcox’s playbook to systemically improve and increase the quality of financial and administrative support of the program from the University.

Cal has to make Men’s Basketball a priority and reach into its potential for revenue generation which though modest is important and its impact on the broader health of the overall athletic program.   Basketball is a gateway for students to bond with the school for the long term, and a hugely important connection point to alumni and significant donors.   While the Chancellor and Athletic Director play a critical role in aligning with this mission, it’s the new head coach and the head coach alone that can catalyze the necessary changes.

As we move on from the Fox era and look forward to rebuilding the Men’s Basketball Program at Cal, the opportunity and challenge starts and ends with finding the right head coach.  

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