Oregon State Game Preview

The first game of the season, particularly one where you’re playing on the road against an FBS team, has far larger import than a single win or loss.

In particular, given this is year nine in the Justin Wilcox era, there’s a Missouri moment happening in real time.  “Show me”

Cal’s offseason was tumultous with much of its soap opera dynamics playing out in public.   The overall outcomes were hugely positive for the long term with Ron Rivera joining as the Football program’s GM, AD Jim Knowlton riding off into the sunset and the connection between the Chancellor’s goals for Football and fans and donors desires becoming more unified.

There were also more changes to the coaching staff than at any time under Justin Wilcox and more front line player turnover than Cal had seen in any two or three seasons in aggregate prior.  The net result is that the media who cover College Football give the Bears little to no chance of having a successful season whilst internal confidence is very high.

That’s a long preamble as to why Saturday nights game in Corvallis is so important.

Previewing the Game:

Oregon State’s Run Offense vs. Cal’s Run Defense:

Clear Cal Advantage

The Beavers have a talented RB room with two players who could easily play for the Bears in Anthony Hankerson and Salahadin Allah.   Hankerson’s the bell cow back coming off a thousand yard season with 15 touchdowns utilizing his bowling ball style build and good quickness and speed.  Allah’s the bigger power back but he has some get up and go to him as well. 

The challenge will be finding holes.  The Beavers OL was not good last year, particularly when they faced Power 4 teams.  And that OL will have to replace several starters and lacking in obvious talent depth or experience.  They will be solidly coached by Mike Cavanaugh, perhaps the Beavers strongest assistant.  They gambled in Fall Camp, having three of their top six lineman practice sparingly until this past week in order to try and keep them healthy for the Cal game.  This is by far Oregon State’s weakest unit on paper and the one with the most question marks.  It will be facing a Cal defense that finished 2024 rated 14^th in the country in yards per carry against.   That defense lost some pieces but returns standouts Aidan Keanaaina‍ and Cade Uluave‍ alongside some talented and proven transfers.  While the DL is battling some injuries with some depth players, the OLB and ILB units in tandem with the top four DL will provide the Beavers OL with a very stiff challenge.  The one concern is that the Bears will be starting two Freshman on Defense and in general the DB group is not as big as Cal has had in the past making tackling and physicality at the point of attack an open question.  

History says the Bears should be able to hold Hankerson and the running attack in check and that’s essential because if they do, Cal can put OSU in long yardage situations where their pass rush can be let loose.

Oregon State’s Pass Offense vs. Cal’s Pass Defense:

Slight Cal Advantage

This could actually go a number of ways, from a Clear Cal Advantage to Neutral depending on how well the Oregon State OL holds up against what appears to be a very strong Bears pass rush.   The Beavers spent big money to secure former Duke signal caller Mallik Murphy.  Murphy is big, strong armed and when given time in the pocket, accurate and effective.  He was at his best in 2024 when the Blue Devils established their run game and gave him a clean pocket.  Where he was not effective was when the pocket got muddy and he got moved off his spot.  His numbers plummeted, leading Duke to let him go and seeking out a more dynamic athlete at QB.  Murphy will have a couple of good options to throw to, inlcuding stud possession receiver, Trent Walker.  Walker is strong with quick feet and runs exceptinally good routes.  He will give the Bears rebuilt secondary a challenge.  Taz Reddicks has plus quickness and speed and comes off a sold 2024 campaign.  Beyond those two, the Beavers will be relying on young and unproven players following the injury to last years starter Darrius Clemons.   The TEs in OSUs system are more blockers than receivers.

The Bears secondary has been a strength in almost every season of Wilcox’s tenure.   This year, Cal replaces a lot of experience and production and counters with two Gof5 starters at the outside CB positions and some talented youngsters.   The group looked very solid throughout Fall camp, in partciular the play of Brent Austin‍ , who looks to be a lock to be the next NFL defensive back to come out of Berkeley and former JC All American Isaiah Crosby‍  at Safety.   Cameron Sidney‍  provides a veteran leader and a very high Football IQ nickel back alongside a bevy of young, talented but as of yet unproven depth.   There are likely to be some growing pains with this unit, particularly early in the season and Murphy, Reddicks and Walker have the resumes to have success against them.  The key will be the pass protection.  The Bears pass rush looks loaded with the return of Ryan McCulloch‍ at the edge, and the inside push of Aidan Keanaaina‍, TJ Bollers‍ and Zae Smith‍.   Cal added Chris Victor‍  as another veteran and productive edge rusher and Murphy can expect to see a bevy of blitzes from different places.   Oregon State’s passing attack is designed to get the ball out early to help protect their QB and they didn’t give up a ton of sacks in 2024, however the number of pressures and hurries conceded was very high.   Depending on how well the new Beavers OL holds up against Cal’s pressure will determine whether Murphy and his skilled receivers have success.  If Murphy is given time, OSU could find consistent gains through the air.  If he’s harassed, it could be a long day for the Beavers

Cal’s Running Attack vs. Oregon State’s Rush Defense

Slight Cal Advantage

The Bears feature a very experienced and physically imposing Offensive Line in 2025.  They are led by a coach who had tremendous success running the ball and protecting the passer at the Group of 5 level in 2024.   Spring and Fall Camp showed off a far more aggressive style with power blocking vs. zone blocking principles and the line had consistent success finding holes vs Cal’s number one defense.   That is what creates the confidence that the Bears will be able to establish the run vs. Oregon State.

That’s not a certainty given the tremendous struggles Cal had up front this past season and the loss of the entire RB room.   And the Beavers return three key players from their front five, including two promising DL in RS Sophomore Tevita Pome’e and Thomas Collins.  Pome’e has good size and holds up well at the point of attack while Collins has more juice.   Oregon State has two new starters at ILB and one at OLB, though both ILBs have good experience.   It’s worth noting that despite the 44-7 walloping the Bears gave the Bears last year, the outcome was not the result of Cal’s ability to run the ball but rather the ease with which they moved the ball through the air.   

Cal’s RB corps and the revised OL are capable of turning that around.  Brandon High‍ , Kendrick Raphael‍  and LJ Johnson‍ are proven tailbacks with good size, power and burst.   And they will run behind the largest Bears OL in history.   A unit that has nine players with starting experience and a total of 110 career starts.  This group should have success against Oregon State’s front seven on Saturday night.  Despite Cal not lighting up the stat sheet on the ground in last years tilt with the Beavers, pretty much everyone else Oregon State played had their way with them leading the Beavers to finishing 108^th vs the run despite an easy schedule.  There’s a talent, size and physicality advantage in Cal’s favor with the run game and Bryan Harsin’s track record of success in establishing the run bodes well for the Bears.

Given Cal is starting a true Freshman QB, look for the Beavers to stack the box to stop the Bears run attack and dare Cal to beat them through the air.

Cal’s Passing Attack vs. Oregon State’s Pass Defense

Neutral

The strength of the Beavers Defense lies in their secondary.   Despite finishing almost dead last in sacks, this group was able to finish a very respectable 55^th nationally in passing yards allowed.  Safety Skyler Thomas has NFL potential and for the Group of 5 level, there’s solid athletism throughout the room.  Former Bear Sailasa Vadrawale‍ is their starter at NB as he enters his third year and while he was going to struggle to break into the two deeps at Cal, he’s a solid athlete.  Overall, this group has a lot of experience and should take a meaningful step forward in 2025.

For Oregon State to have sucess on Saturday night, they are going to need to mount a pass rush, something they failed to do in 2024.  On paper, they are counting on the evolution of their Sophomore DL and Nikko Taylor as there were not proven transfers added to the roster.  Former Nebraska player Kai Wallin is slated to start opposite Taylor and he has good size, albeit no production.   Taylor is a good player and should take a solid step forward after leading Oregon State in sacks and hurries in 2024.   Yet, is there enough here to make them impactful?   Despite Cal’s struggles protecting Fernando Mendoza in 2024, he had more time vs Oregon State last season than in any other game.    The Beavers will need to see a lot of improvement from their returning players and or be willing to blitz early and often to impact Cal’s passing attack.

The Bears start a true Freshman in Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele‍ and doing so on the road in a hostile and loud environment isn’t going to be easy.   JKS is likely to see a lot of disguised coverages, the aforementioned blitzes and everything else OSU HC and DC Trent Bray can throw at him.  Look for JKS to utilize a lot of short passes along with a lot of play action setting up what he does best, which is get the ball down the field.  

The Cal WR corps is likely average at best at the Power 4 level, yet it features two proven, highly productive players in slot Jacob De Jesus‍ and the versatile and long Trond Grizzell on the outside.  FCS transfer Mark Hamper‍ should be a zone buster and behind them are less proven but athletic and fast depth players.  Look for TE Mason Mini‍ and Landon Morris‍ to figure prominently in the game plan and provide comfort to JKS on third downs.

They key is the pass protection.  If Cal’s OL can provide similar time that Mendoza got last year, JKS is likely to have as successful debut.  If JKS can’t get comfortable, the blitz pickups are not on point and he’s harried, Freshman mistakes are likely to ensue.  A lot will be asked of the young signal callers decision making and certaintly the game plan is going to have the ball getting out quickly with simple pre snap reads.

If Oregon State does stack the box and dare Cal to pass the ball, look for JKS to find holes in the zone on intermediate routes and take shots down the field.  His arm and accuracy on deeper throws is special and the Bears found lots of open field in 2024 against this secondary, particularly when OSU sold out to stop the run.   

Special Teams

Cal Advantage

Oregon State will start a JC placekicker and a Freshman Punter.  Despite Cal’s challenges with their kicking game in 2024 and the loss of a star punter, they bring far more experience and production at both positions and their depth of talent advantage should lead to better coverage units.

Coaching

Cal Advantage

Outside of a very consistent defense, after eight seasons, its hard to look at Justin Wilcox’s record and assume he and his staff have an advantage vs many opponents.   In this case, that feels obvious.  The quality and resume of the assistant coaching staffs (Bryan Harsin, Nick Rolovich, Bob Gregory, Anae) is in sharp contrast between the two programs and Trent Bray is an unproven HC with only last years disappointing outcome on his resume.   Bray is now the DC, a position where he had success under Jonathan Smith so it’s not hard to imagine that group improved given the returning experience on that side of the ball and his leadership.  Overall, this is a coaching staff with a lot of question marks and outside of Bray as the DC and Cavanaugh as the OL coach, it’s not a staff that any program in the Power 4 would covet.

And whilst Cal’s offseason was externally tumultuous, the internal read is that this group is more unified, with a team first culture and outstanding improvement with Strength and Conditioning.  

Other Factors

Oregon State Advantage

There’s no denying that Reser Stadium will be full and loud.   It will be a difficult place to play for any program, even one with a veteran QB.  Cal will come in with a completely new Offensive system, a true Freshman QB and a bevy of new starters at least for the Bears.   Oregon State has more continuity on its roster and with its Offensive and Defensive schemes and the team will be at its best health.  When a P4 team plays a Group of 5 team in November, it’s a very different story.  Injuries have occurred and the disparity in quality depth becomes a major factor.  In late August, that gap is not nearly as wide.

Predicted Result

Cal 30, Oregon State 20

The gap in the line of scrimmage will tell the tale and help to overcome first game jitters from JKS.  The Bears Offense is unlikely to be a well oiled machine and there may be some challenging moments from the OL and JKS that keep the game close, in the end Cal’s superior talent up front on both sides of the ball will be the difference.   The key metric to follow is the turnover margin.  This is something the Bears have to be at least neutral on or Reser could turn into a house of horrors.