Cal Football

Paws Analysis: Big Game Fallout, New Era Begins, and SMU Up Next

Cal Hall of Fame QB Mike Pawlawski breaks down the Bears’ lopsided Big Game loss and previews their season finale vs SMU
November 28, 2025
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Photo by Calbears.com

If you watched the Big Game, you don’t need me to tell you it was rough.

Cal went down to Stanford as a 4.5-point favorite and walked out without the Axe and with a 21-point loss. And as much as we’d all like to point to some mysterious outside factor, the truth is pretty simple:

You cannot survive self-inflicted wounds.

All year on the Ultimate Insider podcast, I’ve talked about the “correctable mistakes” that have to be fixed if you want to win close games. In the biggest moment of the season, those same issues showed up again — just louder and more costly.

Thirteen penalties for 123 yards.
False starts. Offsides. Too many men on the field.
Two scoop-and-score turnovers.

That’s not just bad luck. That’s a lack of discipline in the details.

The Big Game is always emotional. The rivalry, the history, the pageantry – it amps everything up. And when you pour that much emotion on top of unresolved technical and mental issues, they don’t go away. They get magnified.

The wild part is that even with two defensive touchdowns given away, it was still only 17–10 at the half. Defensively, Cal played really well early. Stanford had around 70 yards of total offense in the first half. They weren’t moving the ball. We handed them life.

In the second half, Stanford flipped the script. They established the run, averaged about 4.9 yards per carry, converted nearly 45% on third down, and controlled the tempo of the game. Cal, meanwhile, never got the offense cranked back up. No points after halftime, and the Cardinal tacked on two more scores. For Bear fans, it felt exactly like it looked: flat, frustrating, and self-inflicted.

And that’s where the football piece ends and the business of college football starts.

The End of the Wilcox Era

On Sunday, GM Ron Rivera made the decision to move on from Justin Wilcox. Anyone who’s been around this game long enough knows the saying: there are two kinds of coaches — those who have been fired and those who are going to be.

That doesn’t make it any less painful when it happens to someone you respect.

I’ve had the privilege of working with Justin every week for the last nine years. He’s been nothing but a pro. High character. Consistent. Steady. He never mailed it in. He never disrespected the job, the players, or the university.

I’ll never celebrate anyone losing his job, and I’m not going to start here. I wish Justin Wilcox nothing but the best. Cal football is better for the standards he set as a person and as a leader, even if the wins and losses didn’t end up where any of us wanted.

But now the program has to move forward.

Enter Nick Rolovich

In the short term, that means a new voice at the front of the room: interim head coach Nick Rolovich.

I’ve known Rolo a long time. Bay Area guy. Former quarterback. Smart offensive mind. Tough competitor. We crossed paths when he was coming out of Hawaii and playing in the Arena League, and I’ve always liked the way he sees the game – and the way he relates to players.

When the change became official, it hit the staff like it always does: shock, phone calls to family, the ripple effect that comes with any firing. But as coaches, you don’t get to live in that moment very long. You still have a job to do, and more importantly, you have 18–22 year olds trying to figure out what this all means.

Rolo’s first focus has been exactly where it should be: on the players. Helping them process their emotions, lean on each other, and re-center around the opportunity right in front of them – Senior Day and SMU.

He talked about something Justin addressed in camp: the “valley of disappointment.” Every team hits it at some point. You don’t get to choose whether the valley shows up. You only get to choose how you climb out.

That’s where this Cal team is right now.

The JKS Question and the New Reality

You can’t talk about the program’s future without talking about JKS.

JKS is the kind of quarterback you can build an offense – and a program – around. Live arm, accuracy, toughness, and he cares. In the old days, a guy like that comes to Cal, falls in love with the place, and you know you have him for four or five years.

In the NIL/portal era, nothing is that simple. There are middlemen, sales jobs, tampering, and a whole lot of noise for a young player to navigate. As a former quarterback, I’m not sure how well I would’ve handled all of that at 18.

What Cal can control is the environment around him: honesty, connection, and a culture he feels at home in. That’s been one of the draws for him here – something that feels very aligned with local and Hawaiian culture. If that remains real, it gives you a fighting chance to keep special players like JKS in Berkeley.

But again, that’s the long game. Right now, it’s about SMU.

SMU: High Tempo, High Stakes

SMU comes in 8–3 with everything to play for. They can still punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game, which means they’re playing for a shot at the playoff. That’s a lot of motivation walking into Memorial Stadium.

Offensively, they score about 33 points per game and love to go fast. Quarterback Kevin Jennings can throw it from every arm slot, extend plays, and he’s accurate. Their tempo puts stress on your conditioning, your substitutions, and your communication on the back end.

Defensively, they’re built for that style. They give up some yards because they’re on the field a lot, but they make up for it by taking the ball away. They’re +12 in turnover margin on the year, with a secondary that flat-out ballhawks and a front four athletic enough to wear single digits.

For Cal, the keys aren’t complicated:

●        Eliminate the self-inflicted wounds that cost you the Big Game.

●        Take care of the football against a defense that lives on takeaways.

●        Play for each other and stay in the moment – one snap at a time.

The outside noise is going to be loud. Coaching changes, speculation, portal talk, all of it. But the game is still the game. You line up, you execute, and you either make the next play or you don’t.

This week is about finishing for the seniors, honoring the work that’s been put in, and showing who you are when things get hard.

As I’ve said for years: Cal guys are difference-makers. When their backs are against the wall, they don’t fold. They decide to be the ones who turn the story.

We’ll find out on Saturday which way this team wants this chapter to end.

As always — Go Bears

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