Oregon Preview: Despite Heartbreaker Ducks Are Formidable
For most of its game against Stanford last week, Oregon looked the part of a Pac 12 championship contender. Their high-octane offense was running smoothly and the defense had the Cardinal under control.
However, the Ducks (3-1) lost a 17-point lead and the game in overtime due to a confluence of two horrendous turnovers, a questionable coaching decision and some bad officiating. Cal cannot count on that happening again Saturday night when the 24th ranked Bears (3-0) host the No. 19 Ducks in Memorial Stadium. If the Bears want to win this one, they probably will have to do it themselves.
That won't be easy. Oregon has one of the nation's best quarterbacks and some top-flight athletes on defense. The Ducks put up some gaudy numbers against a shamefully weak non-conference schedule and even had pretty good stats vs. the Cardinal.
"We played the type of football we want to get to playing on a consistent basis for about 90 per cent of the game," said Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal this week. "You see some great moments of physicality at the line of scrimmage, you see some high level execution on both sides of the ball.
"And then you see about ten per cent of the time where the breakdowns were pretty significant. And it resulted in some really big plays and change in momentum. Some were self-inflicted, those are the painful ones. But when you look at it in terms of the way we played, how we played with passion, with intensity and a tremendous amount of effort you see a lot of positive things.
"These games, especially the conference games, are a full sixty minutes, and every single one play is as important as every other one. And you've got to be able to stay focused the entire time."
A closer look at the Ducks:
Offense:
It starts with quarterback Justin Herbert (10, above), the 6-6 junior who is second in the conference in passing yards per game (296.5) and total offense (315.5 ypg) and first in passing efficiency (179.4). Granted he had big numbers against three cupcakes: Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State (shame on you, Ducks). But through regulation against Stanford he was an excellent 25-for-27 for 311 yards and a touchdown. He completed just one of six passes in overtime, although one of his misses was clearly pass interference.
"He is as good as anybody I've ever been around," said Cristobal, whose coaching career spans 20 years. "He's mobile, the ball comes out of his hands quickly. He's insanely accurate and he's a competitor.
"He was sharp and impressive (against Stanford) and he seems to get better and better. And I think as the moments get bigger, he'll get better as well. He is driven. He hungers for that. He wants that for his team. His preparation carries him through all that stuff. I don't think there is anything that will allow himself to flinch."
Herbert made his first Pac-12 road start against the Bears in 2016 and threw six touchdown passes, although the Ducks lost in overtime. He was injured during last year's meeting in Eugene. He is 25 pounds heavier than he was then and just as mobile.
Oregon lost Royce Freeman, the school's all-time leading rusher, to graduation, but has plenty of depth at the position including redshirt freshman CJ Verdell, whose fumble near the end of regulation Saturday was devastating. He nonetheless accounted for 115 rushing yards, and is seventh in the conference with an average of 78.5 yard per game. Senior Tony Brooks-James, is 11th, averaging an even 50. He briefly left the Stanford game with an injury but did return, and Cristobal expects him to play Saturday night.
Herbert's favorite target is wide receiver Dillon Mitchell who has 20 receptions for 337 yards. He had a breakout game against Stanford, with 14 catches for 239 yards.
"I don't think anybody can hold me in the country," Mitchell said after the Stanford game. . "... I feel the first couple of plays you play DB on me, you realize I might not be known or as hyped as some other guys, but you understand I'm not the guy to press."
Ducks offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo figures to put Mitchell's talents to good use. "I think Dillon is a really special player," Arroyo said. "We've got some guys on the team that are capable of games like that more often than not. You just have to be able to put them in the right places and execute.
"We have a lot of guys capable of doing some really special things. He's a perfect example. He had a really good game. We expect more out of him."
Wideouts Johnny Johnson III (four) and Jaylen Redd (three) have combined for seven touchdown receptions.
The starting offensive line consists of four juniors and freshman left tackle Penei Sewell, who is an imposing 6-5, 349. He was the prize of the Ducks' recruiting class, and according to the Oregon PR staff one of only nine true freshman in the country to start their team's season opener on the offensive line.
According to 24/7 Sports, against Stanford, Ducks left guard Shane Lemieux "pushed his man around like he was a fourth grader." Center Jake Hanson, who has been a steady, reliable presence his entire career, had some costly bad snaps Saturday, including one over Herbert's head that was snatched by Stanford's Joey Alfieri, who ran 80 yards for a touchdown. That was the beginning of the Cardinal comeback.
Defense
Even after having faced Stanford's Bryce Love, the Ducks lead the conference in rushing defense, giving up just 75.5 yards per game. A lot of that is because of the play of nose guard Jordon Scott, the 6-1, 338-pound sophomore.
"the way we run our defense he's built for the match-ups required taking care of the A-gaps," Cristobal said. "He's certainly a big, imposing explosive guy. He's done a phenomenal job in the run game.
"I think he's undervalued in the passing game. You don't hear his name much, but he creates so much push in the pocket that it prevents the quarterback from stepping up and allows the edge rushers to get there."
While Scott stays on the field most downs, the Ducks shuffle their other defensive linemen and have quite a few good ones. Senior All-American candidate Jalen Jenks and sophomore Austin Faoliu are the listed starters at end, but juniors Gary Baker and Drayton Carlberg see a lot of playing time. Faoliu left the Stanford game with an injury and was seen Monday at practice in a boot. He is questionable to play on Saturday.
"The combination of all those guys playing together results in some really productive plays," Cristobal said. "And we did a really nice job in the run game. In the fourth quarter they (Stanford) might have hit us on a couple of plays. a miscue here or there. But overall the effort, control the line of scrimmage ...continued to take steps forward."
Senior Justin Hollins is the star of the linebacker corps. He is the only player in FBS with a quarterback sack in all four games his team has played. He has managed that despite drawing quite a bit of attention from the other team.
"They make it difficult for him to get to the quarterback, they slide their protections one way of the other," Cristobal said. " A lot of times they go to the zone side where they have three blockers blocking two guys. But he did get there on a few occasions...He is so important to what we do. So important for so many reasons. He is extremely quick, gets underneath a lot of stuff."
If Oregon has a weakness it is the secondary, at least in terms of size. Both starting corners, Thomas Graham and Deommodre Lenoir are 5-10 and strong safety Ugochukwu Amadi is 5-11. Stanford's big receivers took some advantage of their height superiority.
Special teams
Oregon used a different punter and placekicker against Stanford from those who did the job in the first three games. Adam Stack took over as the placekicker and hit the Ducks' first successful field goal of the season, a 38-yarder. He also made all four PAT tries.
Tom Snee, an Aussie like Cal's Steven Coutts, took over as the punter and and pinned the Cardinal deep a few times, but did have some poor punts as well. The Ducks might go back to Blake Maimone this weekend.
Ugo Amadi averages 22.2 yards per punt return, tops in the conference.
Overall
Cristobal is the third Oregon head coach in three years. Mark Helfrich was fired after a 4-8 season in 2016, Willie Taggart left after one year to take over at Florida State. Now Cristobal finds himself under fire for not milking the clock and punting at the end of regulation last week. Stanford, trailing by three points at the time. would have had probably time for one play to go a long way for a tying field goal. Instead, he chose to try for a first down and Verdell, who had an otherwise great day, fumbled at the Stanford 40 with 51 seconds left and Stanford recovered. That enabled the Cardinal to move the ball far enough for a field goal at the buzzer.
One reason might have been fear that Snee might be a little shaky as a punter.
Cristobal feels his team has moved on from the bitter defeat, and will have put it behind them. "You can't dwell on things," he said. "You can't let the same team beat you twice."
The Bears chances probably hinge on keeping Herbert from getting comfortable or picking up yards with his legs. They also must neutralize Scott and keep Hollins off Chase Garbers' back.
Notes
Oregon has won eight of the last nine meetings with the Bears. .... Cal leads the series 40-38-2. ...Oregon did not have a conference road win last year. ...Even with the Stanford loss Oregon has a decent shot at the North title. The Ducks do not play USC or Colorado and Washington comes to Eugene. ....Herbert in his career has completed a pass to 25 different players, including 16 who have caught a TD pass. ...Oregon has scored 40 or more points in its last seven games against the Bears.