Can Coleman replace McGlinchy? That would be the first I've heard of that and I watch/listen to a great deal of insider 49er chat.71Bear said:Forget Schwartz. They are fully stocked at OT with Coleman returning after opting out last season.heartofthebear said:
Yeah folks, since posting I did watch the press conference that Lynch and Shanahan had regarding the trade and it does seem pretty clear why they made the trade and what they are going to do with it. So, I stand corrected.
The points I was making were in lieu of better information that I now have. I was simply suggesting an alternative possibility about what could be going on.
I was not suggesting that the 49ers were full on lying and that they were not after a QB, primarily. I was suggesting that they may not be a done deal and that they could end deciding to trade the pick or take Sewell if Wilson was gone.
Also viewed since I last posted was the pro days of Jones, Fields, Lance and Lawrence. I had watched Wilson's earlier. I did not realize how impressive Lance and Fields are throwing the ball. And we know what they can with their legs. Jones did not look nearly as dynamic or athletic. So I definitely feel that SF is trading up to get Fields or Lance as a backup for now.
Lastly, having listened to the conference I have to change my opinion that trading all of that to get one of those 2 QBs is a stupid trade. They explained their rationale and I think it is well reasoned.
I realize that many people here like to knock SF and there are legitimate hard feelings going back to the Rodgers draft. But, while what then HC Nolan did was ridiculous, it is not the same regime now. I don't think SF operates on biases regarding Cal or stupid tricks to reveal hidden character flaws. I think they are trying to make the team better and I don't think they let anyone or anything, including unnecessary power trips get in the way. They have a philosophy of inclusion, meaning that they don't make a lot of top down decisions or impulsive decisions. Each major decision involves extensive and repetitive discussions including multiple people across the organization. They carefully evaluate the pros and cons of any decision and the timing of it. Additionally they are well respected as an organization and well liked by players. It is why they were able to retain so many of their players.
Furthermore, they recently picked up Alex Mack and don't be surprised if they acquire Mitchell Schwartz as well.
This particular decision (the trade to #3) was in the works with Miami going back to early March. They went in knowing that they would have to pay a premium. But they also wanted to jump ahead of the competition. They wanted to make this trade because of 3 major concerns:
- That Jimmy G, while adequate as a starter, is injury prone and the backups are not an adequate replacement.
- That this particular draft is projected to be the best draft in the next few years for grabbing a top quality QB
- That there would be a run on QBs early in the draft because there are several teams desperate for a starting QB and hence there would not be a QB at pick #12 because other teams would trade up to grab one.
Because of these 3 major concerns and the fact that SF was able to affordably re-sign most of their key players, making their needs for future draft picks less important than it would have and because they like Jimmy G. and feel his offseason is going well, the 49ers pushed most of their chips in and went for it.
Obviously it would have been a better trade if they did not give up as much or if they got pick #2 instead. But that wasn't going to happen so they did the next best thing.
When I look at it in that way, which is the way they described it, I have more confidence than ever that SF is in good hands.
To be clear, I am a 49er fan but not a 49er apologist. I have been very critical of them and various players. And I think they need to do something about their RT Mike McGlinchy. But I am confident that they know that as much or better than I do and I'm confident that they are working on it as well as any other remaining weaknesses.
Back in January, when rumors about Jimmy G. getting traded first started. I echoed what Lynch said then, that SF did need to improve at the QB position, but that could just mean improving the back-up. That has been the consistent position SF has held since.
It may seem ridiculous to do all this for a back-up until you realize that, had SF had Lance or Fields backing up Garappolo in 2020 instead of Mullins and Beatherd, SF would have won more games and probably would have made the playoffs. They lost 3 games to teams in the miserable NFC East that were winnable. And there were other winnable games as well. So, in SFs case, the quality of the back-up makes the difference between playoffs and last place.
The entire history of the NFL is a lesson in the impact of losing a starting QB to injury. Most teams take that seriously but most do it by upgrading the starting QB. Very few address it by upgrading the back-up QB. Still, either one can be critical.
I remember in 1970, George Blanda helped the Oakland Raiders to the playoffs several times after backing up injured starting QB Daryle Lamonica. He did similar things in later years backing up QB Kenny Stabler. He did all of that in his 40s with limited mobility and fighting his own injuries.
While Blanda was a rare bird, playing professional football over 4 decades, he is just one example of a great back-up. Let's not forget that Tom Brady started as Drew Bledsoe's back up. And, when Bledsoe got hurt, Brady's amazing and historic career began.
While drafting a QB early in the draft has less than a 50% chance of working out, the 49ers are not depending on their draft pick to be the answer or the starter. They only need their QB draft pick to able to make the difference between winning and losing the close games that Mullins lost last year by throwing interceptions and/or fumbling. Both Fields and Lance are historically good at protecting the ball. So, with that under consideration, I think the upside of this trade is greater than the downside.
And I think it will be Fields or Lance. I don't think SF even knows who it will be yet. And I think they will continue to evaluate and deliberate on all 4 of the top 5 QBs not taken #1 overall. That is why they made the trade when they did--so they would have a month to do that.
The upshot is, while this would have been a stupid trade to make for a QB that they were relying on to be their immediate starter, it makes sense for a team that is basically one good back-up QB away from the playoffs and maybe the SB.
OT: 49ers trade up for 3rd pick in NFL draft
27,778 Views |
236 Replies |
Last: 5 yr ago by philbert
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Who said anything about replacing McGlinchey? He is one of the best run blockers in the league. The issue is his pass protection. Given that he going to focus on that aspect of his game this off-season (including adding some weight), I think we will see a lot of improvement from him next season.heartofthebear said:Can Coleman replace McGlinchy? That would be the first I've heard of that and I watch/listen to a great deal of insider 49er chat.71Bear said:Forget Schwartz. They are fully stocked at OT with Coleman returning after opting out last season.heartofthebear said:
Yeah folks, since posting I did watch the press conference that Lynch and Shanahan had regarding the trade and it does seem pretty clear why they made the trade and what they are going to do with it. So, I stand corrected.
The points I was making were in lieu of better information that I now have. I was simply suggesting an alternative possibility about what could be going on.
I was not suggesting that the 49ers were full on lying and that they were not after a QB, primarily. I was suggesting that they may not be a done deal and that they could end deciding to trade the pick or take Sewell if Wilson was gone.
Also viewed since I last posted was the pro days of Jones, Fields, Lance and Lawrence. I had watched Wilson's earlier. I did not realize how impressive Lance and Fields are throwing the ball. And we know what they can with their legs. Jones did not look nearly as dynamic or athletic. So I definitely feel that SF is trading up to get Fields or Lance as a backup for now.
Lastly, having listened to the conference I have to change my opinion that trading all of that to get one of those 2 QBs is a stupid trade. They explained their rationale and I think it is well reasoned.
I realize that many people here like to knock SF and there are legitimate hard feelings going back to the Rodgers draft. But, while what then HC Nolan did was ridiculous, it is not the same regime now. I don't think SF operates on biases regarding Cal or stupid tricks to reveal hidden character flaws. I think they are trying to make the team better and I don't think they let anyone or anything, including unnecessary power trips get in the way. They have a philosophy of inclusion, meaning that they don't make a lot of top down decisions or impulsive decisions. Each major decision involves extensive and repetitive discussions including multiple people across the organization. They carefully evaluate the pros and cons of any decision and the timing of it. Additionally they are well respected as an organization and well liked by players. It is why they were able to retain so many of their players.
Furthermore, they recently picked up Alex Mack and don't be surprised if they acquire Mitchell Schwartz as well.
This particular decision (the trade to #3) was in the works with Miami going back to early March. They went in knowing that they would have to pay a premium. But they also wanted to jump ahead of the competition. They wanted to make this trade because of 3 major concerns:
- That Jimmy G, while adequate as a starter, is injury prone and the backups are not an adequate replacement.
- That this particular draft is projected to be the best draft in the next few years for grabbing a top quality QB
- That there would be a run on QBs early in the draft because there are several teams desperate for a starting QB and hence there would not be a QB at pick #12 because other teams would trade up to grab one.
Because of these 3 major concerns and the fact that SF was able to affordably re-sign most of their key players, making their needs for future draft picks less important than it would have and because they like Jimmy G. and feel his offseason is going well, the 49ers pushed most of their chips in and went for it.
Obviously it would have been a better trade if they did not give up as much or if they got pick #2 instead. But that wasn't going to happen so they did the next best thing.
When I look at it in that way, which is the way they described it, I have more confidence than ever that SF is in good hands.
To be clear, I am a 49er fan but not a 49er apologist. I have been very critical of them and various players. And I think they need to do something about their RT Mike McGlinchy. But I am confident that they know that as much or better than I do and I'm confident that they are working on it as well as any other remaining weaknesses.
Back in January, when rumors about Jimmy G. getting traded first started. I echoed what Lynch said then, that SF did need to improve at the QB position, but that could just mean improving the back-up. That has been the consistent position SF has held since.
It may seem ridiculous to do all this for a back-up until you realize that, had SF had Lance or Fields backing up Garappolo in 2020 instead of Mullins and Beatherd, SF would have won more games and probably would have made the playoffs. They lost 3 games to teams in the miserable NFC East that were winnable. And there were other winnable games as well. So, in SFs case, the quality of the back-up makes the difference between playoffs and last place.
The entire history of the NFL is a lesson in the impact of losing a starting QB to injury. Most teams take that seriously but most do it by upgrading the starting QB. Very few address it by upgrading the back-up QB. Still, either one can be critical.
I remember in 1970, George Blanda helped the Oakland Raiders to the playoffs several times after backing up injured starting QB Daryle Lamonica. He did similar things in later years backing up QB Kenny Stabler. He did all of that in his 40s with limited mobility and fighting his own injuries.
While Blanda was a rare bird, playing professional football over 4 decades, he is just one example of a great back-up. Let's not forget that Tom Brady started as Drew Bledsoe's back up. And, when Bledsoe got hurt, Brady's amazing and historic career began.
While drafting a QB early in the draft has less than a 50% chance of working out, the 49ers are not depending on their draft pick to be the answer or the starter. They only need their QB draft pick to able to make the difference between winning and losing the close games that Mullins lost last year by throwing interceptions and/or fumbling. Both Fields and Lance are historically good at protecting the ball. So, with that under consideration, I think the upside of this trade is greater than the downside.
And I think it will be Fields or Lance. I don't think SF even knows who it will be yet. And I think they will continue to evaluate and deliberate on all 4 of the top 5 QBs not taken #1 overall. That is why they made the trade when they did--so they would have a month to do that.
The upshot is, while this would have been a stupid trade to make for a QB that they were relying on to be their immediate starter, it makes sense for a team that is basically one good back-up QB away from the playoffs and maybe the SB.
Coleman is the #3 OT. Hopefully, both of the starting OT's will remain healthy thus keeping Coleman glued to the bench.
I think it would be safe bet to say one of the five will be a flop. Heck, even in '83, there was a bad QB pick in the Top Ten (Todd Blackledge).Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
I absolutely agree with your second paragraph comments.
Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
Teams with good scouting depts will draft well..Teams which do not have good scouting depts will not draft well. in the 60's, and 70's, Oakland, Dallas and the Rams drafted well every single year because their scouting depts were light years ahead of other teams. Pittsburgh drafted well too. teams with terrible scouting depts ( including the 49ers) drafted terribly every year. Remember Ken Willard, the good 49er fullback????He once said that he couldn't believe how many 49er draftees even mAde their college teams because they were so bad..
At this point, I cannot say I have faith in Shanahan to make the right choices. Too many early-round mistakes.
At this point, I cannot say I have faith in Shanahan to make the right choices. Too many early-round mistakes.
I was talking about replacing McGlinchy with Sewell. I guess we can hope McGlinchy will improve. Or you can get someone who is good at both right now. I really don't get how you are defending a guy because he is one of the best at 50% of his job and sucks at the other 50%.71Bear said:Who said anything about replacing McGlinchey? He is one of the best run blockers in the league. The issue is his pass protection. Given that he going to focus on that aspect of his game this off-season (including adding some weight), I think we will see a lot of improvement from him next season.heartofthebear said:Can Coleman replace McGlinchy? That would be the first I've heard of that and I watch/listen to a great deal of insider 49er chat.71Bear said:Forget Schwartz. They are fully stocked at OT with Coleman returning after opting out last season.heartofthebear said:
Yeah folks, since posting I did watch the press conference that Lynch and Shanahan had regarding the trade and it does seem pretty clear why they made the trade and what they are going to do with it. So, I stand corrected.
The points I was making were in lieu of better information that I now have. I was simply suggesting an alternative possibility about what could be going on.
I was not suggesting that the 49ers were full on lying and that they were not after a QB, primarily. I was suggesting that they may not be a done deal and that they could end deciding to trade the pick or take Sewell if Wilson was gone.
Also viewed since I last posted was the pro days of Jones, Fields, Lance and Lawrence. I had watched Wilson's earlier. I did not realize how impressive Lance and Fields are throwing the ball. And we know what they can with their legs. Jones did not look nearly as dynamic or athletic. So I definitely feel that SF is trading up to get Fields or Lance as a backup for now.
Lastly, having listened to the conference I have to change my opinion that trading all of that to get one of those 2 QBs is a stupid trade. They explained their rationale and I think it is well reasoned.
I realize that many people here like to knock SF and there are legitimate hard feelings going back to the Rodgers draft. But, while what then HC Nolan did was ridiculous, it is not the same regime now. I don't think SF operates on biases regarding Cal or stupid tricks to reveal hidden character flaws. I think they are trying to make the team better and I don't think they let anyone or anything, including unnecessary power trips get in the way. They have a philosophy of inclusion, meaning that they don't make a lot of top down decisions or impulsive decisions. Each major decision involves extensive and repetitive discussions including multiple people across the organization. They carefully evaluate the pros and cons of any decision and the timing of it. Additionally they are well respected as an organization and well liked by players. It is why they were able to retain so many of their players.
Furthermore, they recently picked up Alex Mack and don't be surprised if they acquire Mitchell Schwartz as well.
This particular decision (the trade to #3) was in the works with Miami going back to early March. They went in knowing that they would have to pay a premium. But they also wanted to jump ahead of the competition. They wanted to make this trade because of 3 major concerns:
- That Jimmy G, while adequate as a starter, is injury prone and the backups are not an adequate replacement.
- That this particular draft is projected to be the best draft in the next few years for grabbing a top quality QB
- That there would be a run on QBs early in the draft because there are several teams desperate for a starting QB and hence there would not be a QB at pick #12 because other teams would trade up to grab one.
Because of these 3 major concerns and the fact that SF was able to affordably re-sign most of their key players, making their needs for future draft picks less important than it would have and because they like Jimmy G. and feel his offseason is going well, the 49ers pushed most of their chips in and went for it.
Obviously it would have been a better trade if they did not give up as much or if they got pick #2 instead. But that wasn't going to happen so they did the next best thing.
When I look at it in that way, which is the way they described it, I have more confidence than ever that SF is in good hands.
To be clear, I am a 49er fan but not a 49er apologist. I have been very critical of them and various players. And I think they need to do something about their RT Mike McGlinchy. But I am confident that they know that as much or better than I do and I'm confident that they are working on it as well as any other remaining weaknesses.
Back in January, when rumors about Jimmy G. getting traded first started. I echoed what Lynch said then, that SF did need to improve at the QB position, but that could just mean improving the back-up. That has been the consistent position SF has held since.
It may seem ridiculous to do all this for a back-up until you realize that, had SF had Lance or Fields backing up Garappolo in 2020 instead of Mullins and Beatherd, SF would have won more games and probably would have made the playoffs. They lost 3 games to teams in the miserable NFC East that were winnable. And there were other winnable games as well. So, in SFs case, the quality of the back-up makes the difference between playoffs and last place.
The entire history of the NFL is a lesson in the impact of losing a starting QB to injury. Most teams take that seriously but most do it by upgrading the starting QB. Very few address it by upgrading the back-up QB. Still, either one can be critical.
I remember in 1970, George Blanda helped the Oakland Raiders to the playoffs several times after backing up injured starting QB Daryle Lamonica. He did similar things in later years backing up QB Kenny Stabler. He did all of that in his 40s with limited mobility and fighting his own injuries.
While Blanda was a rare bird, playing professional football over 4 decades, he is just one example of a great back-up. Let's not forget that Tom Brady started as Drew Bledsoe's back up. And, when Bledsoe got hurt, Brady's amazing and historic career began.
While drafting a QB early in the draft has less than a 50% chance of working out, the 49ers are not depending on their draft pick to be the answer or the starter. They only need their QB draft pick to able to make the difference between winning and losing the close games that Mullins lost last year by throwing interceptions and/or fumbling. Both Fields and Lance are historically good at protecting the ball. So, with that under consideration, I think the upside of this trade is greater than the downside.
And I think it will be Fields or Lance. I don't think SF even knows who it will be yet. And I think they will continue to evaluate and deliberate on all 4 of the top 5 QBs not taken #1 overall. That is why they made the trade when they did--so they would have a month to do that.
The upshot is, while this would have been a stupid trade to make for a QB that they were relying on to be their immediate starter, it makes sense for a team that is basically one good back-up QB away from the playoffs and maybe the SB.
Coleman is the #3 OT. Hopefully, both of the starting OT's will remain healthy thus keeping Coleman glued to the bench.
Expecting McGlinchy to improve is kind of like expecting Garappolo to stay healthy. Both could happen but don't you need insurance if they don't. The 49ers are going to get Jimmy insurance with the #3 pick. Is Coleman what you want as McGlinchy insurance or would Schwartz be better? Maybe they get someone decent in the 2nd round. Who knows?
Schwartz - a big no thanks. I would hate to see SF take a chance on a guy coming off back surgery. The Niners have been burned far too many times by taking chances on guys coming off serious surgeries.heartofthebear said:I was talking about replacing McGlinchy with Sewell. I guess we can hope McGlinchy will improve. Or you can get someone who is good at both right now. I really don't get how you are defending a guy because he is one of the best at 50% of his job and sucks at the other 50%.71Bear said:Who said anything about replacing McGlinchey? He is one of the best run blockers in the league. The issue is his pass protection. Given that he going to focus on that aspect of his game this off-season (including adding some weight), I think we will see a lot of improvement from him next season.heartofthebear said:Can Coleman replace McGlinchy? That would be the first I've heard of that and I watch/listen to a great deal of insider 49er chat.71Bear said:Forget Schwartz. They are fully stocked at OT with Coleman returning after opting out last season.heartofthebear said:
Yeah folks, since posting I did watch the press conference that Lynch and Shanahan had regarding the trade and it does seem pretty clear why they made the trade and what they are going to do with it. So, I stand corrected.
The points I was making were in lieu of better information that I now have. I was simply suggesting an alternative possibility about what could be going on.
I was not suggesting that the 49ers were full on lying and that they were not after a QB, primarily. I was suggesting that they may not be a done deal and that they could end deciding to trade the pick or take Sewell if Wilson was gone.
Also viewed since I last posted was the pro days of Jones, Fields, Lance and Lawrence. I had watched Wilson's earlier. I did not realize how impressive Lance and Fields are throwing the ball. And we know what they can with their legs. Jones did not look nearly as dynamic or athletic. So I definitely feel that SF is trading up to get Fields or Lance as a backup for now.
Lastly, having listened to the conference I have to change my opinion that trading all of that to get one of those 2 QBs is a stupid trade. They explained their rationale and I think it is well reasoned.
I realize that many people here like to knock SF and there are legitimate hard feelings going back to the Rodgers draft. But, while what then HC Nolan did was ridiculous, it is not the same regime now. I don't think SF operates on biases regarding Cal or stupid tricks to reveal hidden character flaws. I think they are trying to make the team better and I don't think they let anyone or anything, including unnecessary power trips get in the way. They have a philosophy of inclusion, meaning that they don't make a lot of top down decisions or impulsive decisions. Each major decision involves extensive and repetitive discussions including multiple people across the organization. They carefully evaluate the pros and cons of any decision and the timing of it. Additionally they are well respected as an organization and well liked by players. It is why they were able to retain so many of their players.
Furthermore, they recently picked up Alex Mack and don't be surprised if they acquire Mitchell Schwartz as well.
This particular decision (the trade to #3) was in the works with Miami going back to early March. They went in knowing that they would have to pay a premium. But they also wanted to jump ahead of the competition. They wanted to make this trade because of 3 major concerns:
- That Jimmy G, while adequate as a starter, is injury prone and the backups are not an adequate replacement.
- That this particular draft is projected to be the best draft in the next few years for grabbing a top quality QB
- That there would be a run on QBs early in the draft because there are several teams desperate for a starting QB and hence there would not be a QB at pick #12 because other teams would trade up to grab one.
Because of these 3 major concerns and the fact that SF was able to affordably re-sign most of their key players, making their needs for future draft picks less important than it would have and because they like Jimmy G. and feel his offseason is going well, the 49ers pushed most of their chips in and went for it.
Obviously it would have been a better trade if they did not give up as much or if they got pick #2 instead. But that wasn't going to happen so they did the next best thing.
When I look at it in that way, which is the way they described it, I have more confidence than ever that SF is in good hands.
To be clear, I am a 49er fan but not a 49er apologist. I have been very critical of them and various players. And I think they need to do something about their RT Mike McGlinchy. But I am confident that they know that as much or better than I do and I'm confident that they are working on it as well as any other remaining weaknesses.
Back in January, when rumors about Jimmy G. getting traded first started. I echoed what Lynch said then, that SF did need to improve at the QB position, but that could just mean improving the back-up. That has been the consistent position SF has held since.
It may seem ridiculous to do all this for a back-up until you realize that, had SF had Lance or Fields backing up Garappolo in 2020 instead of Mullins and Beatherd, SF would have won more games and probably would have made the playoffs. They lost 3 games to teams in the miserable NFC East that were winnable. And there were other winnable games as well. So, in SFs case, the quality of the back-up makes the difference between playoffs and last place.
The entire history of the NFL is a lesson in the impact of losing a starting QB to injury. Most teams take that seriously but most do it by upgrading the starting QB. Very few address it by upgrading the back-up QB. Still, either one can be critical.
I remember in 1970, George Blanda helped the Oakland Raiders to the playoffs several times after backing up injured starting QB Daryle Lamonica. He did similar things in later years backing up QB Kenny Stabler. He did all of that in his 40s with limited mobility and fighting his own injuries.
While Blanda was a rare bird, playing professional football over 4 decades, he is just one example of a great back-up. Let's not forget that Tom Brady started as Drew Bledsoe's back up. And, when Bledsoe got hurt, Brady's amazing and historic career began.
While drafting a QB early in the draft has less than a 50% chance of working out, the 49ers are not depending on their draft pick to be the answer or the starter. They only need their QB draft pick to able to make the difference between winning and losing the close games that Mullins lost last year by throwing interceptions and/or fumbling. Both Fields and Lance are historically good at protecting the ball. So, with that under consideration, I think the upside of this trade is greater than the downside.
And I think it will be Fields or Lance. I don't think SF even knows who it will be yet. And I think they will continue to evaluate and deliberate on all 4 of the top 5 QBs not taken #1 overall. That is why they made the trade when they did--so they would have a month to do that.
The upshot is, while this would have been a stupid trade to make for a QB that they were relying on to be their immediate starter, it makes sense for a team that is basically one good back-up QB away from the playoffs and maybe the SB.
Coleman is the #3 OT. Hopefully, both of the starting OT's will remain healthy thus keeping Coleman glued to the bench.
Expecting McGlinchy to improve is kind of like expecting Garappolo to stay healthy. Both could happen but don't you need insurance if they don't. The 49ers are going to get Jimmy insurance with the #3 pick. Is Coleman what you want as McGlinchy insurance or would Schwartz be better? Maybe they get someone decent in the 2nd round. Who knows?
As for drafting an OLer, I could see that happening in the later rounds but the need for a CB is too great to pass on one in the second round.
Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Only time will resolve this debate. It will take at least five years to fully analyze its impact.OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
Not all of them. Some, like JaMarcus Russell, were the choice of one guy who thought he was smarter than all the other guys. And we all know how that turns out whether it is sports, business or politics.calumnus said:71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
As for the revised analogy. I like the idea of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. As I have said before, I would prefer one Super Bowl win followed by two lousy seasons to three Conference championship losses.
Or putting it another way - i would prefer one Rose Bowl win followed by a couple crappy seasons to three one loss seasons and no Rose Bowl appearances.
I know that not everyone agrees with that philosophy and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
71Bear said:Not all of them. Some, like JaMarcus Russell, were the choice of one guy who thought he was smarter than all the other guys. And we all know how that turns out whether it is sports, business or politics.calumnus said:71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
As for the revised analogy. I like the idea of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. As I have said before, I would prefer one Super Bowl win followed by two lousy seasons to three Conference championship losses.
Or putting it another way - i would prefer one Rose Bowl win followed by a couple crappy seasons to three one loss seasons and no Rose Bowl appearances.
I know that not everyone agrees with that philosophy and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I am inclined toward the "go for broke" mentality also. However, I think that if they hit jackpot rather than SB in year 1 and crappy seasons after, they will be in a good position for years to come with a young QB to build around. If they wanted to win a SB now and have crappy seasons after they could have traded all those draft picks to GB for Aaron Rodgers.
In any case the idea is "don't go for second best." And I agree with that. 4th place verses 8th place, who cares? That is why I thought hiring Fox in basketball was worse than hiring Wyking Jones. At least Wyking was had upside potential. Fox is a proven average or worse coach who last won a tournament game 14 years ago.
So gambling is good, it is good to swing for the fences, but you should still be smart about it. Wyking's contract should have been highly incentive based with a cheap buyout. In this case they are gambling everything on a #3 QB out of college after a shortened season. All I can say is good luck and kudos if it works out.
Fox was an awful choice. He is nothing more than a retread in a suit. Knowlton does not have the courage to select a young guy who could either skyrocket or flame out on the launch pad. He prefers a safe smooth ride on the good ship Mediocrity.calumnus said:71Bear said:Not all of them. Some, like JaMarcus Russell, were the choice of one guy who thought he was smarter than all the other guys. And we all know how that turns out whether it is sports, business or politics.calumnus said:71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
As for the revised analogy. I like the idea of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. As I have said before, I would prefer one Super Bowl win followed by two lousy seasons to three Conference championship losses.
Or putting it another way - i would prefer one Rose Bowl win followed by a couple crappy seasons to three one loss seasons and no Rose Bowl appearances.
I know that not everyone agrees with that philosophy and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I am inclined toward the "go for broke" mentality also. However, I think that if they hit jackpot rather than SB in year 1 and crappy seasons after, they will be in a good position for years to come with a young QB to build around. If they wanted to win a SB now and have crappy seasons after they could have traded all those draft picks to GB for Aaron Rodgers.
In any case the idea is "don't go for second best." And I agree with that. 4th place verses 8th place, who cares? That is why I thought hiring Fox in basketball was worse than hiring Wyking Jones. At least Wyking was had upside potential. Fox is a proven average or worse coach who last won a tournament game 14 years ago.
So gambling is good, it is good to swing for the fences, but you should still be smart about it. Wyking's contract should have been highly incentive based with a cheap buyout. In this case they are gambling everything on a #3 QB out of college after a shortened season. All I can say is good luck and kudos if it works out.
As for trading for Rodgers - you gotta have a team interested in trading with you before you can talk about a deal. The only big names available recently were Brady last year and Stafford this year.
71Bear said:Not all of them. Some, like JaMarcus Russell, were the choice of one guy who thought he was smarter than all the other guys. And we all know how that turns out whether it is sports, business or politics.calumnus said:71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
As for the revised analogy. I like the idea of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. As I have said before, I would prefer one Super Bowl win followed by two lousy seasons to three Conference championship losses.
Or putting it another way - i would prefer one Rose Bowl win followed by a couple crappy seasons to three one loss seasons and no Rose Bowl appearances.
I know that not everyone agrees with that philosophy and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I would analogize this to one of the worst trades in Warriors history, trading Robert Parrish and a high first round pick that the Celtics used to draft Kevin McHale to move up a couple spots to get Joe Barry Carroll, a guy they believed was going to be a star. The problem with that trade was not ONLY that they were wrong about Carroll. What were the chances that he was going to be that much better than Parrish to warrant giving up the pick? Not great. But in the NBA then, centers were like QB's today. Get a superstar and you are set. Teams overvalued moving from solid to good to great at the position and overvalued their ability to see greatness.
Yeah sure, if you get that great QB, you are set. Rodgers has covered a lot of mediocre rosters at Green Bay. But that is not the only way to go about building a team. If the niners were a lousy team with a lousy QB, it might (might) make sense to do this. But they aren't a lousy team and they have a solid QB. Parrish was not the problem on the Warriors and Jimmy is not the problem on the niners. In both cases they are get rich quick schemes.
If you have a $1000 in chips, you don't push them in for a 50% chance to get $1100 and a 50% chance you get zero. And you don't push them in when a $1bet leaves you with a 45% chance you get $1100 and a55% chance you get $999.
There has been a run on QB's this year. No one thinks the 2-5 group are not overvalued. Frankly, with a solid QB on the roster I don't use a 3 on any of these guys. I certainly don't trade 4 picks for any of them.
Smart play would be to pick a CB that they desperately need to help now. Pick one of the 6-8 QB in the later rounds who probably don't have that much less of a chance than the deeply flawed 3-5 guys. Doing so, you still have Jimmy in the fold. You still have picks to build on. Jimmy does well, you keep him and no one thinks anything. If your pick is good, he is under no pressure to perform until he is ready.
Now you have given up a ton and effectively dumped Jimmy for this guy. He is going to get massacred if he is not an improvement over Jimmy in year two. That is a high bar. As I said, 7 out of the last 8 QB's to go in the top 3 are worse than Jimmy.
The beauty of all of this is it will play out in front of our eyes over the next few years and the fate of the Shanalynch regime will be riding on it.
Jimmy G's injuries have cost the niners being competitive in two recent years and Shanny/Lynch decided it was time to move on and get a more dynamic QB. I like that they are willing to roll the dice to be great. Fields, Lance, and Wilson are all dynamic and Shanny thinks with his offense they can win a SB. If the new QB flames out it will probably cost Shanny/Lynch their job, so there's a lot of pressure to get it right. It will be fun to watch.
philbert said:
The beauty of all of this is it will play out in front of our eyes over the next few years and the fate of the Shanalynch regime will be riding on it.
Agreed.
The 49ers are trying to upgrade their backup QB, not necessarily just replace Jimmy G. I think that most of the QBs you are referring to are better than Mullins and Beatherd. They do not know if Jimmy can stay healthy. If he can, they really don't need to draft a QB at all because, as you said, you aren't really going to upgrade Jimmy in the draft. Jimmy is only 30. The 49ers don't need to draft a replacement for at least 5 years. Over the years that Jimmy has been a 49er, he has missed about half those games. Had the 49ers had a guy like Justin Fields as a backup QB during those missed games, the 49ers would likely have made the playoffs the 2 years he was injured. The reason is that the 49ers are pretty much a complete team, even going back to 2018. If you are one backup QB away from making the playoffs instead of last place, it becomes more important to draft a QB than it otherwise would be.OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
They don't have to "take a chance" on Schwartz. They have the ability to evaluate him themselves and decide what the risks are. Anyway, I still think replacing McGlinchy is a priority at this point.71Bear said:Schwartz - a big no thanks. I would hate to see SF take a chance on a guy coming off back surgery. The Niners have been burned far too many times by taking chances on guys coming off serious surgeries.heartofthebear said:I was talking about replacing McGlinchy with Sewell. I guess we can hope McGlinchy will improve. Or you can get someone who is good at both right now. I really don't get how you are defending a guy because he is one of the best at 50% of his job and sucks at the other 50%.71Bear said:Who said anything about replacing McGlinchey? He is one of the best run blockers in the league. The issue is his pass protection. Given that he going to focus on that aspect of his game this off-season (including adding some weight), I think we will see a lot of improvement from him next season.heartofthebear said:Can Coleman replace McGlinchy? That would be the first I've heard of that and I watch/listen to a great deal of insider 49er chat.71Bear said:Forget Schwartz. They are fully stocked at OT with Coleman returning after opting out last season.heartofthebear said:
Yeah folks, since posting I did watch the press conference that Lynch and Shanahan had regarding the trade and it does seem pretty clear why they made the trade and what they are going to do with it. So, I stand corrected.
The points I was making were in lieu of better information that I now have. I was simply suggesting an alternative possibility about what could be going on.
I was not suggesting that the 49ers were full on lying and that they were not after a QB, primarily. I was suggesting that they may not be a done deal and that they could end deciding to trade the pick or take Sewell if Wilson was gone.
Also viewed since I last posted was the pro days of Jones, Fields, Lance and Lawrence. I had watched Wilson's earlier. I did not realize how impressive Lance and Fields are throwing the ball. And we know what they can with their legs. Jones did not look nearly as dynamic or athletic. So I definitely feel that SF is trading up to get Fields or Lance as a backup for now.
Lastly, having listened to the conference I have to change my opinion that trading all of that to get one of those 2 QBs is a stupid trade. They explained their rationale and I think it is well reasoned.
I realize that many people here like to knock SF and there are legitimate hard feelings going back to the Rodgers draft. But, while what then HC Nolan did was ridiculous, it is not the same regime now. I don't think SF operates on biases regarding Cal or stupid tricks to reveal hidden character flaws. I think they are trying to make the team better and I don't think they let anyone or anything, including unnecessary power trips get in the way. They have a philosophy of inclusion, meaning that they don't make a lot of top down decisions or impulsive decisions. Each major decision involves extensive and repetitive discussions including multiple people across the organization. They carefully evaluate the pros and cons of any decision and the timing of it. Additionally they are well respected as an organization and well liked by players. It is why they were able to retain so many of their players.
Furthermore, they recently picked up Alex Mack and don't be surprised if they acquire Mitchell Schwartz as well.
This particular decision (the trade to #3) was in the works with Miami going back to early March. They went in knowing that they would have to pay a premium. But they also wanted to jump ahead of the competition. They wanted to make this trade because of 3 major concerns:
- That Jimmy G, while adequate as a starter, is injury prone and the backups are not an adequate replacement.
- That this particular draft is projected to be the best draft in the next few years for grabbing a top quality QB
- That there would be a run on QBs early in the draft because there are several teams desperate for a starting QB and hence there would not be a QB at pick #12 because other teams would trade up to grab one.
Because of these 3 major concerns and the fact that SF was able to affordably re-sign most of their key players, making their needs for future draft picks less important than it would have and because they like Jimmy G. and feel his offseason is going well, the 49ers pushed most of their chips in and went for it.
Obviously it would have been a better trade if they did not give up as much or if they got pick #2 instead. But that wasn't going to happen so they did the next best thing.
When I look at it in that way, which is the way they described it, I have more confidence than ever that SF is in good hands.
To be clear, I am a 49er fan but not a 49er apologist. I have been very critical of them and various players. And I think they need to do something about their RT Mike McGlinchy. But I am confident that they know that as much or better than I do and I'm confident that they are working on it as well as any other remaining weaknesses.
Back in January, when rumors about Jimmy G. getting traded first started. I echoed what Lynch said then, that SF did need to improve at the QB position, but that could just mean improving the back-up. That has been the consistent position SF has held since.
It may seem ridiculous to do all this for a back-up until you realize that, had SF had Lance or Fields backing up Garappolo in 2020 instead of Mullins and Beatherd, SF would have won more games and probably would have made the playoffs. They lost 3 games to teams in the miserable NFC East that were winnable. And there were other winnable games as well. So, in SFs case, the quality of the back-up makes the difference between playoffs and last place.
The entire history of the NFL is a lesson in the impact of losing a starting QB to injury. Most teams take that seriously but most do it by upgrading the starting QB. Very few address it by upgrading the back-up QB. Still, either one can be critical.
I remember in 1970, George Blanda helped the Oakland Raiders to the playoffs several times after backing up injured starting QB Daryle Lamonica. He did similar things in later years backing up QB Kenny Stabler. He did all of that in his 40s with limited mobility and fighting his own injuries.
While Blanda was a rare bird, playing professional football over 4 decades, he is just one example of a great back-up. Let's not forget that Tom Brady started as Drew Bledsoe's back up. And, when Bledsoe got hurt, Brady's amazing and historic career began.
While drafting a QB early in the draft has less than a 50% chance of working out, the 49ers are not depending on their draft pick to be the answer or the starter. They only need their QB draft pick to able to make the difference between winning and losing the close games that Mullins lost last year by throwing interceptions and/or fumbling. Both Fields and Lance are historically good at protecting the ball. So, with that under consideration, I think the upside of this trade is greater than the downside.
And I think it will be Fields or Lance. I don't think SF even knows who it will be yet. And I think they will continue to evaluate and deliberate on all 4 of the top 5 QBs not taken #1 overall. That is why they made the trade when they did--so they would have a month to do that.
The upshot is, while this would have been a stupid trade to make for a QB that they were relying on to be their immediate starter, it makes sense for a team that is basically one good back-up QB away from the playoffs and maybe the SB.
Coleman is the #3 OT. Hopefully, both of the starting OT's will remain healthy thus keeping Coleman glued to the bench.
Expecting McGlinchy to improve is kind of like expecting Garappolo to stay healthy. Both could happen but don't you need insurance if they don't. The 49ers are going to get Jimmy insurance with the #3 pick. Is Coleman what you want as McGlinchy insurance or would Schwartz be better? Maybe they get someone decent in the 2nd round. Who knows?
As for drafting an OLer, I could see that happening in the later rounds but the need for a CB is too great to pass on one in the second round.
Far more so than any other NFL position, QB is where a team's floor gets set, so if the 49ers believe they are getting a franchise QB with pick #3, then it's hard to hit them too hard over it in my opinion. A few other factors that I believe mitigate the risks/costs that you've outlined:OaktownBear said:71Bear said:Not all of them. Some, like JaMarcus Russell, were the choice of one guy who thought he was smarter than all the other guys. And we all know how that turns out whether it is sports, business or politics.calumnus said:71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
As for the revised analogy. I like the idea of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. As I have said before, I would prefer one Super Bowl win followed by two lousy seasons to three Conference championship losses.
Or putting it another way - i would prefer one Rose Bowl win followed by a couple crappy seasons to three one loss seasons and no Rose Bowl appearances.
I know that not everyone agrees with that philosophy and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I would analogize this to one of the worst trades in Warriors history, trading Robert Parrish and a high first round pick that the Celtics used to draft Kevin McHale to move up a couple spots to get Joe Barry Carroll, a guy they believed was going to be a star. The problem with that trade was not ONLY that they were wrong about Carroll. What were the chances that he was going to be that much better than Parrish to warrant giving up the pick? Not great. But in the NBA then, centers were like QB's today. Get a superstar and you are set. Teams overvalued moving from solid to good to great at the position and overvalued their ability to see greatness.
Yeah sure, if you get that great QB, you are set. Rodgers has covered a lot of mediocre rosters at Green Bay. But that is not the only way to go about building a team. If the niners were a lousy team with a lousy QB, it might (might) make sense to do this. But they aren't a lousy team and they have a solid QB. Parrish was not the problem on the Warriors and Jimmy is not the problem on the niners. In both cases they are get rich quick schemes.
If you have a $1000 in chips, you don't push them in for a 50% chance to get $1100 and a 50% chance you get zero. And you don't push them in when a $1bet leaves you with a 45% chance you get $1100 and a55% chance you get $999.
There has been a run on QB's this year. No one thinks the 2-5 group are not overvalued. Frankly, with a solid QB on the roster I don't use a 3 on any of these guys. I certainly don't trade 4 picks for any of them.
Smart play would be to pick a CB that they desperately need to help now. Pick one of the 6-8 QB in the later rounds who probably don't have that much less of a chance than the deeply flawed 3-5 guys. Doing so, you still have Jimmy in the fold. You still have picks to build on. Jimmy does well, you keep him and no one thinks anything. If your pick is good, he is under no pressure to perform until he is ready.
Now you have given up a ton and effectively dumped Jimmy for this guy. He is going to get massacred if he is not an improvement over Jimmy in year two. That is a high bar. As I said, 7 out of the last 8 QB's to go in the top 3 are worse than Jimmy.
1) The ~$20 million that the 49ers will save, whether this year or next year, by cutting or trading Garoppolo and turning the reins over to Fields/Wilson/Lance can be used to more easily resign their current star players on rookie contracts i.e. Bosa and Warner
2) If the 49ers believe that they are already a Super Bowl contender, then those future 1st rounders they traded are going to be in the high-20's at best, so this would be the last chance they'll have for a few years to be in a position to draft this high. If the 49ers flame out, then Garoppolo is one of the most likely players to fall short of what the team needs to succeed and the 49ers will be looking to use their high draft pick on a QB anyway (in a presumably inferior for now QB class).
3) The only position that I'd say the 49ers are in true need of right now is cornerback, and I'd argue that outside of elite O-lineman, every other position has similar bust potential as QB. Just look at how Jeff Okudah, unanimous All-American and last year's #3 pick, played this past season.
4) Most QB prospects drafted in the first few picks do tend to bust or disappoint, but I would argue that this is at least as much due to them going to poor situations as it is them being overrated to begin with. In other words, there's a reason that teams drafting that high are drafting that high in the first place.
So the Jets traded away Darnold, just in case there was any doubt whether they would pick a QB at #2.
My honest feeling at this point is that I don't think Kyle really thought this through. if you are going to give up the family jewels, you go for a proven commodity like Stafford or Watson. No first round pick for the next two years pretty much destroys your scouting because you don't know who to focus on or evaluate closely. I am a serious fan, but, I don't think this is going to end well.
JeffBear07 said:Far more so than any other NFL position, QB is where a team's floor gets set, so if the 49ers believe they are getting a franchise QB with pick #3, then it's hard to hit them too hard over it in my opinion. A few other factors that I believe mitigate the risks/costs that you've outlined:OaktownBear said:71Bear said:Not all of them. Some, like JaMarcus Russell, were the choice of one guy who thought he was smarter than all the other guys. And we all know how that turns out whether it is sports, business or politics.calumnus said:71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
As for the revised analogy. I like the idea of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. As I have said before, I would prefer one Super Bowl win followed by two lousy seasons to three Conference championship losses.
Or putting it another way - i would prefer one Rose Bowl win followed by a couple crappy seasons to three one loss seasons and no Rose Bowl appearances.
I know that not everyone agrees with that philosophy and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I would analogize this to one of the worst trades in Warriors history, trading Robert Parrish and a high first round pick that the Celtics used to draft Kevin McHale to move up a couple spots to get Joe Barry Carroll, a guy they believed was going to be a star. The problem with that trade was not ONLY that they were wrong about Carroll. What were the chances that he was going to be that much better than Parrish to warrant giving up the pick? Not great. But in the NBA then, centers were like QB's today. Get a superstar and you are set. Teams overvalued moving from solid to good to great at the position and overvalued their ability to see greatness.
Yeah sure, if you get that great QB, you are set. Rodgers has covered a lot of mediocre rosters at Green Bay. But that is not the only way to go about building a team. If the niners were a lousy team with a lousy QB, it might (might) make sense to do this. But they aren't a lousy team and they have a solid QB. Parrish was not the problem on the Warriors and Jimmy is not the problem on the niners. In both cases they are get rich quick schemes.
If you have a $1000 in chips, you don't push them in for a 50% chance to get $1100 and a 50% chance you get zero. And you don't push them in when a $1bet leaves you with a 45% chance you get $1100 and a55% chance you get $999.
There has been a run on QB's this year. No one thinks the 2-5 group are not overvalued. Frankly, with a solid QB on the roster I don't use a 3 on any of these guys. I certainly don't trade 4 picks for any of them.
Smart play would be to pick a CB that they desperately need to help now. Pick one of the 6-8 QB in the later rounds who probably don't have that much less of a chance than the deeply flawed 3-5 guys. Doing so, you still have Jimmy in the fold. You still have picks to build on. Jimmy does well, you keep him and no one thinks anything. If your pick is good, he is under no pressure to perform until he is ready.
Now you have given up a ton and effectively dumped Jimmy for this guy. He is going to get massacred if he is not an improvement over Jimmy in year two. That is a high bar. As I said, 7 out of the last 8 QB's to go in the top 3 are worse than Jimmy.
1) The ~$20 million that the 49ers will save, whether this year or next year, by cutting or trading Garoppolo and turning the reins over to Fields/Wilson/Lance can be used to more easily resign their current star players on rookie contracts i.e. Bosa and Warner
2) If the 49ers believe that they are already a Super Bowl contender, then those future 1st rounders they traded are going to be in the high-20's at best, so this would be the last chance they'll have for a few years to be in a position to draft this high. If the 49ers flame out, then Garoppolo is one of the most likely players to fall short of what the team needs to succeed and the 49ers will be looking to use their high draft pick on a QB anyway (in a presumably inferior for now QB class).
3) The only position that I'd say the 49ers are in true need of right now is cornerback, and I'd argue that outside of elite O-lineman, every other position has similar bust potential as QB. Just look at how Jeff Okudah, unanimous All-American and last year's #3 pick, played this past season.
4) Most QB prospects drafted in the first few picks do tend to bust or disappoint, but I would argue that this is at least as much due to them going to poor situations as it is them being overrated to begin with. In other words, there's a reason that teams drafting that high are drafting that high in the first place.
Everyone keeps talking about next year's QB class not being as good, but a market has a supply component and a demand component. The demand has outstripped supply this year. Almost none of the experts think that the QB's are top 10 caliber picks. At least 1 second round quality QB is going top 10. Frankly the idea that there are more quality QB picks this year has caused a feeding frenzy such that they will be picked higher than they would in most years. The metric is the quality of the QB class. It is the quality of the QB available at your pick and what you gave up to get him.
There may be fewer QB's next year. We will see. But there will be 5 teams off the QB market because they are waiting to see how the rookie they heavily invested in pans out. A lot of those desperate for a QB will have made their play this year. When Rodgers came out, there were 2 good QB's and 1 team that wanted one. Rodgers at 24 was better than anyone going 3 this year.
If the niners finish high enough that they are at the end of the draft order next year and they don't pony up the dough for what is a reasonable price for a proven QB, and instead hand the reigns of a top team to a second year QB with no experience, they are fools. The "they'll save money on replacing Jimmy" argument only works if the new QB is close in value to Jimmy and that is a bad bet.
The "if you see your guy" argument is understandable but everyone thinks they see their guy and almost everyone is wrong. Further, it doesn't appear the niners "think they see their guy" because all word is they are debating who to take and they have zero reason to float misinformation on that.
heartofthebear said:The 49ers are trying to upgrade their backup QB, not necessarily just replace Jimmy G. I think that most of the QBs you are referring to are better than Mullins and Beatherd. They do not know if Jimmy can stay healthy. If he can, they really don't need to draft a QB at all because, as you said, you aren't really going to upgrade Jimmy in the draft. Jimmy is only 30. The 49ers don't need to draft a replacement for at least 5 years. Over the years that Jimmy has been a 49er, he has missed about half those games. Had the 49ers had a guy like Justin Fields as a backup QB during those missed games, the 49ers would likely have made the playoffs the 2 years he was injured. The reason is that the 49ers are pretty much a complete team, even going back to 2018. If you are one backup QB away from making the playoffs instead of last place, it becomes more important to draft a QB than it otherwise would be.OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
The niners are not drafting a backup QB and they did not trade 4 picks to get an unproven backup when they could sign a proven backup on the free agent market. You draft a QB #3 and the expectation is he starts within a year or everyone starts talking bust.
They have been clear. They think Jimmy gives them the best chance to win this year and then he is gone before the bill comes due. If say he had an MVP year and won the Super Bowl, yeah, they probably change their minds (or the fans change it for them) in which case they will trade the guy they picked this year for used car value because it makes no sense to keep him on the roster as he and his agent get pissed off and his value on the trade market goes down.
This is not a video game. There are humans to deal with. None of the top 5 QB's are going to sit quietly as a backup for more than a year and that is only when they have a clear succession plan. You understand , right that all those guys are looking to prove themselves and get their first big contract an $30-50M a year and putting them on the bench for years kills their chances. Their discontent would have an impact on the team. There is zero chance the niners are looking at this as drafting Jimmy's backup.
True, but it's both. You admit that he will be a backup for one year at least. So, they are going to upgrade at at backup for one year and then re-evaluate. Then, in 2022 they will have options. I think you are jumping to conclusions about what will happen to Lance/Fields etc. should they decide to resign Garappolo after this season. That is speculation. It depends on the specific circumstances. Each year, their drafted QB will be given an equal chance to win the job over Jimmy. If, after several years, he can't do that, then yes it will be a bust. The hope is that both are good enough that there will be trade value later.OaktownBear said:heartofthebear said:The 49ers are trying to upgrade their backup QB, not necessarily just replace Jimmy G. I think that most of the QBs you are referring to are better than Mullins and Beatherd. They do not know if Jimmy can stay healthy. If he can, they really don't need to draft a QB at all because, as you said, you aren't really going to upgrade Jimmy in the draft. Jimmy is only 30. The 49ers don't need to draft a replacement for at least 5 years. Over the years that Jimmy has been a 49er, he has missed about half those games. Had the 49ers had a guy like Justin Fields as a backup QB during those missed games, the 49ers would likely have made the playoffs the 2 years he was injured. The reason is that the 49ers are pretty much a complete team, even going back to 2018. If you are one backup QB away from making the playoffs instead of last place, it becomes more important to draft a QB than it otherwise would be.OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
The niners are not drafting a backup QB and they did not trade 4 picks to get an unproven backup when they could sign a proven backup on the free agent market. You draft a QB #3 and the expectation is he starts within a year or everyone starts talking bust.
They have been clear. They think Jimmy gives them the best chance to win this year and then he is gone before the bill comes due. If say he had an MVP year and won the Super Bowl, yeah, they probably change their minds (or the fans change it for them) in which case they will trade the guy they picked this year for used car value because it makes no sense to keep him on the roster as he and his agent get pissed off and his value on the trade market goes down.
This is not a video game. There are humans to deal with. None of the top 5 QB's are going to sit quietly as a backup for more than a year and that is only when they have a clear succession plan. You understand , right that all those guys are looking to prove themselves and get their first big contract an $30-50M a year and putting them on the bench for years kills their chances. Their discontent would have an impact on the team. There is zero chance the niners are looking at this as drafting Jimmy's backup.
Listen, I agree that they gave up too much. I would not have made this trade. I'm just saying that it makes more sense then it would appear on the surface. Draft picks come and go. The 49ers could trade back into the first round in 2022 and 2023 and I think they probably will. The Dolphins parlayed one trade into 4 first round draft picks. Also, maybe the scouts don't see a lot of value at QB or in general in the 2022 draft.
Finally we don't know what SF knows. Maybe they know the Jets are neither trading the pick nor taking Wilson. Although that seems unlikely, the trade would seems better in a scenario where they get Wilson.
Don't you think the 49ers organization has guys just like you that bring up points just like yours? Don't you think they evaluated all of these things and collectively decided to make this trade?
heartofthebear said:True, but it's both. You admit that he will be a backup for one year at least. So, they are going to upgrade at at backup for one year and then re-evaluate. Then, in 2022 they will have options. I think you are jumping to conclusions about what will happen to Lance/Fields etc. should they decide to resign Garappolo after this season. That is speculation. It depends on the specific circumstances. Each year, their drafted QB will be given an equal chance to win the job over Jimmy. If, after several years, he can't do that, then yes it will be a bust. The hope is that both are good enough that there will be trade value later.OaktownBear said:heartofthebear said:The 49ers are trying to upgrade their backup QB, not necessarily just replace Jimmy G. I think that most of the QBs you are referring to are better than Mullins and Beatherd. They do not know if Jimmy can stay healthy. If he can, they really don't need to draft a QB at all because, as you said, you aren't really going to upgrade Jimmy in the draft. Jimmy is only 30. The 49ers don't need to draft a replacement for at least 5 years. Over the years that Jimmy has been a 49er, he has missed about half those games. Had the 49ers had a guy like Justin Fields as a backup QB during those missed games, the 49ers would likely have made the playoffs the 2 years he was injured. The reason is that the 49ers are pretty much a complete team, even going back to 2018. If you are one backup QB away from making the playoffs instead of last place, it becomes more important to draft a QB than it otherwise would be.OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
The niners are not drafting a backup QB and they did not trade 4 picks to get an unproven backup when they could sign a proven backup on the free agent market. You draft a QB #3 and the expectation is he starts within a year or everyone starts talking bust.
They have been clear. They think Jimmy gives them the best chance to win this year and then he is gone before the bill comes due. If say he had an MVP year and won the Super Bowl, yeah, they probably change their minds (or the fans change it for them) in which case they will trade the guy they picked this year for used car value because it makes no sense to keep him on the roster as he and his agent get pissed off and his value on the trade market goes down.
This is not a video game. There are humans to deal with. None of the top 5 QB's are going to sit quietly as a backup for more than a year and that is only when they have a clear succession plan. You understand , right that all those guys are looking to prove themselves and get their first big contract an $30-50M a year and putting them on the bench for years kills their chances. Their discontent would have an impact on the team. There is zero chance the niners are looking at this as drafting Jimmy's backup.
Listen, I agree that they gave up too much. I would not have made this trade. I'm just saying that it makes more sense then it would appear on the surface. Draft picks come and go. The 49ers could trade back into the first round in 2022 and 2023 and I think they probably will. The Dolphins parlayed one trade into 4 first round draft picks. Also, maybe the scouts don't see a lot of value at QB or in general in the 2022 draft.
Finally we don't know what SF knows. Maybe they know the Jets are neither trading the pick nor taking Wilson. Although that seems unlikely, the trade would seems better in a scenario where they get Wilson.
Don't you think the 49ers organization has guys just like you that bring up points just like yours? Don't you think they evaluated all of these things and collectively decided to make this trade?
Thisr is not high school where the Soph is waiting for the Senior to graduate. These are professionals who have tens of millions of dollars on the line. You should realize this as the whole reason Jimmy is here is that it became untenable to keep him on the same team as Brady. And Jimmy was nowhere near a number three pick. You cannot keep the number three pick on the team for years saying "you have a chance in camp to beat him out" which is frankly silly anyway. Almost no NFLteam has an open competition at QB.
Yeah, it is speculation. It is extremely good speculation. If I say the Republicans are going to vote against Biden's infrastructure plan, it is speculation, but frankly entertaining the alternative is foolhardy.
I think it has more to do with the Niners situation than any perceived weakness in the '22 NFL draft class. They paid the premium to move up because they know they know the reality of their title window and this was their best chance to trade up since it's easier to trade up from 12 than from the 20s. I'm expecting some positive regression to the mean for Garoppolo health-wise but even without that it's unlikely the 49ers finish in the bottom half of the league again.
They have a favorable schedule too, their 17th game is @ Cinci which is as good as it gets since all the extra games are road games for the NFC, they also play the AFC South, NFC North, 4th place finishers Philly & Atlanta, and then an NFC West with no clear dominant team. Last season the NFC West came down to LA and Seattle but neither team is better than last year which leaves the door open for the Cardinals to take the next step or the 49ers to have a bounce back season like the Rams had last year.
The draft is hard enough to get right without trying to predict a year+ in advance, I mean even in your example you have Wilson going to either the Jets or Niners and he didn't start moving up draft boards until midway through this season. I agree there's no surefire #1 QB like the last couple years with Burrows and Lawrence but the Niners aren't picking #1 even if they tank as hard as they can, they're just too talented at too many key positions. Not to get way off track here but there's some good QB talent in '22 too. A lot of people are really high on Howell out of UNC or Slovis the southern cal guy but I think Spencer Rattler out of Oklahoma will establish himself as QB1 of next year's draft class. There's a couple guys like Jayden Daniels who could work their way into the first round too
They have a favorable schedule too, their 17th game is @ Cinci which is as good as it gets since all the extra games are road games for the NFC, they also play the AFC South, NFC North, 4th place finishers Philly & Atlanta, and then an NFC West with no clear dominant team. Last season the NFC West came down to LA and Seattle but neither team is better than last year which leaves the door open for the Cardinals to take the next step or the 49ers to have a bounce back season like the Rams had last year.
The draft is hard enough to get right without trying to predict a year+ in advance, I mean even in your example you have Wilson going to either the Jets or Niners and he didn't start moving up draft boards until midway through this season. I agree there's no surefire #1 QB like the last couple years with Burrows and Lawrence but the Niners aren't picking #1 even if they tank as hard as they can, they're just too talented at too many key positions. Not to get way off track here but there's some good QB talent in '22 too. A lot of people are really high on Howell out of UNC or Slovis the southern cal guy but I think Spencer Rattler out of Oklahoma will establish himself as QB1 of next year's draft class. There's a couple guys like Jayden Daniels who could work their way into the first round too
Just for the record, I myself am ambivalent on the 49ers' trade up to #3. Obviously if they draft their QB for the next 10+ years, it was worth every pick they gave up, and if the pick busts, then the trade was a failure and reloading the team becomes that much harder. I just don't think the odds of that happening are as high as you think nor that the 49ers situation as of this moment is as bad as you think.OaktownBear said:JeffBear07 said:Far more so than any other NFL position, QB is where a team's floor gets set, so if the 49ers believe they are getting a franchise QB with pick #3, then it's hard to hit them too hard over it in my opinion. A few other factors that I believe mitigate the risks/costs that you've outlined:OaktownBear said:71Bear said:Not all of them. Some, like JaMarcus Russell, were the choice of one guy who thought he was smarter than all the other guys. And we all know how that turns out whether it is sports, business or politics.calumnus said:71Bear said:Lotto is pure chance. Identifying the right player at the top of the draft is not chance, it is the result of surrounding yourself with accomplished personnel whose collective wisdom yields a recommendation that leads to the selection of a franchise player. No one is saying SF will assuredly choose the right QB. What can be said is they have put themselves in a position to make the right choice (something they were not prior to the trade).calumnus said:OaktownBear said:Of course. And if that trade doesn't yield better than an already solid Jimmy G, and the picks you traded yield Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Rice, Asomugha, and Tom Brady, It will be the blunder of the century.71Bear said:If that trade yields a "Mahomes-like" result or another Aaron Rodgers, it will have been the steal of the decade. If not, maybe not so much. Yep, a lot of pressure to make the right choice but you don't build a champion by being timid. I like the team I follow aggressively chasing Super Bowl trophies. In pro sports, winning is all that matters....OaktownBear said:Which is why you don't trade 3 first round picks and a third for one pick.71Bear said:... or third pick value with their fifth round choice.OaktownBear said:Bearly Clad said:
My bad I didn't mean to put words in your mouth but thanks for the response
Honestly I see the top 5 QBs like this: Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones but I think yours is more likely to be the way it actually goes. We won't know for a couple years but people have been saying for a while that this year and next year will be the hardest years to evaluate for the NFL draft because of COVID. But if there's 5 QBs in the top 10 it'll have to either be a generational QB class like '83 or there's gonna be some Trubisky-type busts mixed in with one or two surprise NFL successes like Josh Allen.
Basically it's gonna be a ****show, some teams with good scouting departments will be finding first round values in the 3rd and some teams will pick 5th round value guys in the 2nd
Someone may even find 5th round value with the third pick
The beauty of the NFL draft, for every Solomon Thomas, there is a George Kittle.
If I look at the QB's taken with a top 3 pick since Jimmy G was drafted, 7 out of 8 are clearly not as good as he is. (I'm not counting 2020 because too early.) Those are the odds you are dealing with in trying to improve the position. Meanwhile they could have taken a top CB and improved the team now.
Yeah, this is really rolling the dice. There are a lot of interesting QB prospects in this draft, but none that are can't miss. If the guy they pick at third is a bust, they are back to square one: Garapolo minus three first round draft picks. Plus, they will need to resign the guy that they just gave this vote of no-confidence to. They are all In on this bet.
If someone mortgages their house to buy lotto tickets I am going to think it was dumb. If they actually win I will just shake my head and think they are really lucky they got really lucky. I just don't see the this as a smart bet.
Ok, lotto is not the right analogy, try stock options. Something where you think you and your team of researchers can pick the right stock. You mortgage your house and buy call options. If you pick right, jackpot, but pick wrong and you will lose your house. It is just not a smart thing to do.
Every single first round bust was vetted by a team of professional experts. There is just no sure thing.
But kudos to Shanahan and Lynch if they hit jackpot.
As for the revised analogy. I like the idea of pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. As I have said before, I would prefer one Super Bowl win followed by two lousy seasons to three Conference championship losses.
Or putting it another way - i would prefer one Rose Bowl win followed by a couple crappy seasons to three one loss seasons and no Rose Bowl appearances.
I know that not everyone agrees with that philosophy and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I would analogize this to one of the worst trades in Warriors history, trading Robert Parrish and a high first round pick that the Celtics used to draft Kevin McHale to move up a couple spots to get Joe Barry Carroll, a guy they believed was going to be a star. The problem with that trade was not ONLY that they were wrong about Carroll. What were the chances that he was going to be that much better than Parrish to warrant giving up the pick? Not great. But in the NBA then, centers were like QB's today. Get a superstar and you are set. Teams overvalued moving from solid to good to great at the position and overvalued their ability to see greatness.
Yeah sure, if you get that great QB, you are set. Rodgers has covered a lot of mediocre rosters at Green Bay. But that is not the only way to go about building a team. If the niners were a lousy team with a lousy QB, it might (might) make sense to do this. But they aren't a lousy team and they have a solid QB. Parrish was not the problem on the Warriors and Jimmy is not the problem on the niners. In both cases they are get rich quick schemes.
If you have a $1000 in chips, you don't push them in for a 50% chance to get $1100 and a 50% chance you get zero. And you don't push them in when a $1bet leaves you with a 45% chance you get $1100 and a55% chance you get $999.
There has been a run on QB's this year. No one thinks the 2-5 group are not overvalued. Frankly, with a solid QB on the roster I don't use a 3 on any of these guys. I certainly don't trade 4 picks for any of them.
Smart play would be to pick a CB that they desperately need to help now. Pick one of the 6-8 QB in the later rounds who probably don't have that much less of a chance than the deeply flawed 3-5 guys. Doing so, you still have Jimmy in the fold. You still have picks to build on. Jimmy does well, you keep him and no one thinks anything. If your pick is good, he is under no pressure to perform until he is ready.
Now you have given up a ton and effectively dumped Jimmy for this guy. He is going to get massacred if he is not an improvement over Jimmy in year two. That is a high bar. As I said, 7 out of the last 8 QB's to go in the top 3 are worse than Jimmy.
1) The ~$20 million that the 49ers will save, whether this year or next year, by cutting or trading Garoppolo and turning the reins over to Fields/Wilson/Lance can be used to more easily resign their current star players on rookie contracts i.e. Bosa and Warner
2) If the 49ers believe that they are already a Super Bowl contender, then those future 1st rounders they traded are going to be in the high-20's at best, so this would be the last chance they'll have for a few years to be in a position to draft this high. If the 49ers flame out, then Garoppolo is one of the most likely players to fall short of what the team needs to succeed and the 49ers will be looking to use their high draft pick on a QB anyway (in a presumably inferior for now QB class).
3) The only position that I'd say the 49ers are in true need of right now is cornerback, and I'd argue that outside of elite O-lineman, every other position has similar bust potential as QB. Just look at how Jeff Okudah, unanimous All-American and last year's #3 pick, played this past season.
4) Most QB prospects drafted in the first few picks do tend to bust or disappoint, but I would argue that this is at least as much due to them going to poor situations as it is them being overrated to begin with. In other words, there's a reason that teams drafting that high are drafting that high in the first place.
Everyone keeps talking about next year's QB class not being as good, but a market has a supply component and a demand component. The demand has outstripped supply this year. Almost none of the experts think that the QB's are top 10 caliber picks. At least 1 second round quality QB is going top 10. Frankly the idea that there are more quality QB picks this year has caused a feeding frenzy such that they will be picked higher than they would in most years. The metric is the quality of the QB class. It is the quality of the QB available at your pick and what you gave up to get him.
There may be fewer QB's next year. We will see. But there will be 5 teams off the QB market because they are waiting to see how the rookie they heavily invested in pans out. A lot of those desperate for a QB will have made their play this year. When Rodgers came out, there were 2 good QB's and 1 team that wanted one. Rodgers at 24 was better than anyone going 3 this year.
If the niners finish high enough that they are at the end of the draft order next year and they don't pony up the dough for what is a reasonable price for a proven QB, and instead hand the reigns of a top team to a second year QB with no experience, they are fools. The "they'll save money on replacing Jimmy" argument only works if the new QB is close in value to Jimmy and that is a bad bet.
The "if you see your guy" argument is understandable but everyone thinks they see their guy and almost everyone is wrong. Further, it doesn't appear the niners "think they see their guy" because all word is they are debating who to take and they have zero reason to float misinformation on that.
You make a fair enough point about supply and demand, though if the 49ers are right about the strength of their team as it stands (i.e., Super Bowl contender), then I don't think that that's particularly relevant. The concern about Garoppolo is not only that he might not be much more than a game manager but also that he has a propensity for injury that make his availability simply unreliable. So it makes sense to at least consider drafting his heir apparent, and if Shanahan and Lynch (or let's be honest, just Shanahan) think that they've identified at least one such player who would be available at #3, then I still find it hard to fault them for shooting their shot. You can argue the cost, but as I mentioned earlier, those 1st round picks are late 20's at best in the 49ers' mind, and the cost would surely be higher in the next few years if the 49ers were trying to trade up from those spots instead of #12.
I suspect your rebuttal to this will be that it is an exception to the rule, but it feels like the 49ers are trying to follow the Chiefs' route of keeping the incumbent for one year so that their prized QB prospect can sit and learn for a year, then handing the 2nd-year QB the reins and let his talent (now enhanced by a year of learning the playbook) take over. If that plan works out to a similar level of success, would you still be down on the 49ers's trade up to put this plan into motion?
Last note on your final paragraph, I would dispute what you say here. I think the 49ers have identified 1 or 2 guys (maybe 3) whom they would be perfectly fine with drafting and it really just depends on whom the Jets pick. And for all the faults I can find in Shanahan and Lynch's past draft prowess, the one thing I have felt pretty good about is their ability to keep stuff in-house, so I don't think it's the 49ers floating out notions that they're still debating whom to take.
Jimmy stays this year. Take Fields or Sewell. If the latter, go with Mills in round two.
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