Golden One said:
wifeisafurd said:
Golden One said:
How far the Pac-12 has fallen. Wasn't too many years ago that the rumors had Texas and Oklahoma joining the Pac-12.
What about the Pac-12 and the Big-10 getting together to form a second "super conference". If they went for 16 teams, the lineup could be ( 8 from each conference):
Ohio State
Michigan
Nebraska
Penn State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Illinois
Iowa
USC
UCLA
Cal
Stanfurd
Washington
Oregon
Colorado
Utah
That would be a pretty compelling lineup.
And make no economic sense for the Big 10. Lot of red ink in those Pac 12 schools to subsidize.
I disagree. The combined Big-10/Pac-12 super conference would have enormous economic power and would generate substantial additional revenue for all of the member schools.
A merger is DOA for reason discussed below, but a realignment is not.
This whole "merger" thing is based on hype from the Atlantic supposedly being pushed by the USC AD over the last couple years based on the current friends with benefits arrangement between the two conferences. It is premised on C
olorado, Utah, WSU, OSU, Cal and Furd not joining because their athletic departments a piles of red ink and would drag down the conference and screw-up scheduling (go see the March 4, 2020 article). No one's willingly to have their cash machine that is the Big Ten get dragged down by these programs.
UCLA which is dripping in debt gets a free ride in order to get the crown jewel, USC. A 20-team Big 10 (or whatever) without the drag of the other Pac 12 schools might be a coup, though I don't know how Stanford and Cal get left out, or if Oregon and Washington could leave their in-state brethren.
As noted by the Atlantic: cord-cutting, etc. has rendered territory acquisition for the sake of higher cable network subscriber fees, the reason for the last round of realignment, a fool's errand. If there is another major round of realignment it will be driven by brand names that can draw viewers from across the country: USC, Oregon, Washington and the Arizona schools. Not the losers mentioned above.
The latest from Wilner says the Pac 12 now last in in P5 revenue production, and the reasons lie at the feet of the undesirables: Furd, Cal, OSU, WSU and to a lesser degree Utah and Colorado. Apparently, Mike Bohn and Jen Cohen feel constrained by the conference losers, especially after the C-19 fiasco, and they are using threat of leaving to get the new Commish to push reforms.
The prior Big 10 expansion has met not playing three or 4 conference opponents a year. There are great rivalries among other Big Ten schools that will not play every year. If I'm an alu/ fan, I would rather play Michigan or TOSU more often than play Washington, USC or Oregon, clearly the top of the Pac-12 in football recently, not to mention the likes of say WSU. There's a lot of money from the Big Ten now, but that money is going toward flying to Corvallis on a regular basis. Notwithstanding the money drivers, Texas and Okie joining the SEC works because they are physically geographical in the SEC's footprint.
Beside the Pac 12's troubled assets issue and scheduling issues, is that the Pac-12 but it comes without the huge travel distances and costs. The betting by some other sources is that the Big 10 makes an arragement with the ACC (another realignment also with a lot of issues).
Most of the Big Ten's largest TV markets (Jersey/NY, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis) are east. Instead of catering to the larger and more important half of the Big Ten, the Big 10 now is going to favor far western markets? There are many teams in the Big Ten are more local to Big 12 country than anyone in the PAC-12, and it makes sense for most off the Big 12 to realign with the Big 10, if they can't get the top Pac schools.
Moving past realignment,
we go to the utter fantasy of a merger. The Pac 12 conference itself cannot file bankruptcy, so a reduction in conference headquarters rent and absurd benefits, and the pile of red ink of the failing Pac 12 network would have to be negotiated. Read that as: how much do the Pac 12 teams AS A CONFERENCE PAY for the Big 10 to take on the Pac 12's liabilities? Then what happens between now and the end of 2024 when the Pac-12's horrible media rights deal and the accompanying Grant of Rights agreement finally expires. It is more easy for individual schools to leave the conference, but the huge burden of the Pac 12 deal stays with the conference with a merger. They can't get your questionable benefits on media until 2025 four seasons from now. But it gets even better: Scott's strategy to wait until 2024 backfired miserably as the SEC and Big 10 gobbled up a complete menu of future football and basketball broadcast windows on FOX, ABC, ESPN, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU. So the incentive for the Big 10 money machine for the media boon to merge again is what?
Then there are the people. Which Commissioner and staff step aside? You think the Big 10 wants anyone from Larry Scott's office or some new guy who is an unkown quantity? These guys are going to negotiate their termination? Yes, there is the culture fit until you consider that Pac-12 refuses to invite religious schools, and California just keep finding ways to prevent their schools from going to certain states. Also lost in this discussion is how the misfires by Scott diminished the brand, performance and direction of the conference. It is not winning in football and basketball, and even the non-revenue sports in the "Conference of Championships" have taken some large hits (some of this is C-19 related). Geography and the disparate levels of fan engagement put the Pac behind the other power 5. Which leads back to the question again, how much are the Pac 12 teams willing to pay the Big 10 for a merger especially when specific desirable programs like USC simply can leave through realignment?