berserkeley said:

---

Haven't had much reason to post here in a while, but the potential end of Cal athletics has given me reason.

I only see 4 options:

1) The Pac-12 can expand.
2a) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins some new super conference.
2b) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins the likes of the MWC.
3) The Pac-12, Big Ten, and ACC form a TV and post-season partnership to shutout the SEC.

Option 1 seems impossible. There are simply no schools that would be willing to join and would provide enough revenue to justify their inclusion and help the league catch up to the Big Ten and SEC.

Option 2 seems highly probable given that USC and Oregon aren't going to stay in the Pac-12 if they can double their revenue by jumping ship. Unfortunately, Cal has to pray that its academic reputation, long history, and location are enough to justify inclusion over its lack of a major fanbase and national draw. If Rutgers could do it, why not Cal?

Option 3 would be the best outcome for all three so of course it won't happen especially given that all three have new commissioners. The SEC has allegedly reached out to Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, and Clemson so the SEC is trying to kill off all 3 conferences so even the Big Ten needs to protect itself. Right now, the three have the power through out of conference scheduling agreements and post-season championship agreements to take away all of the SEC's power. How enticing is SEC football to TV if they can only play themselves?

Of course, the option that seems by far the most likely is that Cal finds itself left out of the new college football landscape. So what happens next? Without USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, who attends Cal football games? Without all that TV money, how does Cal athletics continue to fund itself? How does Cal athletics payoff all that debt? Does Cal athletics even have a future if it gets left behind?

---

berserkeley said:

---

Haven't had much reason to post here in a while, but the potential end of Cal athletics has given me reason.

I only see 4 options:

1) The Pac-12 can expand.
2a) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins some new super conference.
2b) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins the likes of the MWC.
3) The Pac-12, Big Ten, and ACC form a TV and post-season partnership to shutout the SEC.

Option 1 seems impossible. There are simply no schools that would be willing to join and would provide enough revenue to justify their inclusion and help the league catch up to the Big Ten and SEC.

Option 2 seems highly probable given that USC and Oregon aren't going to stay in the Pac-12 if they can double their revenue by jumping ship. Unfortunately, Cal has to pray that its academic reputation, long history, and location are enough to justify inclusion over its lack of a major fanbase and national draw. If Rutgers could do it, why not Cal?

Option 3 would be the best outcome for all three so of course it won't happen especially given that all three have new commissioners. The SEC has allegedly reached out to Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, and Clemson so the SEC is trying to kill off all 3 conferences so even the Big Ten needs to protect itself. Right now, the three have the power through out of conference scheduling agreements and post-season championship agreements to take away all of the SEC's power. How enticing is SEC football to TV if they can only play themselves?

Of course, the option that seems by far the most likely is that Cal finds itself left out of the new college football landscape. So what happens next? Without USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, who attends Cal football games? Without all that TV money, how does Cal athletics continue to fund itself? How does Cal athletics payoff all that debt? Does Cal athletics even have a future if it gets left behind?

---

ncbears said:

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There's quite a bit of time between now and 2025.

---

ColoradoBear said:

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ncbears said:

---

There's quite a bit of time between now and 2025.

---

Talk about peeling a band aid off slowly!

Would think that Texas and OU are hoping enough of the other B12 leftovers arrange for a new home sooner than later so that they can vote to dissolve and then not pay exit fees?

But I can't see a lot of the B12 schools fitting anywhere unless the tv networks promise to grease the wheels with the remaining conferences (if the networks would even want that, who knows?)

---

BearSD said:

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C'mon, folks, don't try to win a Negabear contest.

The Pac-12 isn't a Frankenstein's monster like the $EC, but it is ahead of the ACC, whose football lineup is only Clemson and the 13 Dwarfs, and the Pac-12 isn't picking up any of the Big 12's unwanted scraps.

---

Cal Strong! said:

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BearSD said:

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C'mon, folks, don't try to win a Negabear contest.

The Pac-12 isn't a Frankenstein's monster like the $EC, but it is ahead of the ACC, whose football lineup is only Clemson and the 13 Dwarfs, and the Pac-12 isn't picking up any of the Big 12's unwanted scraps.

---

Cal Strong take Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and BYU. Team them with Arizona schools, Utah, and Colorado for "Pac-16 East." The Old Pac-8 would form "Pac-16 West."

Cal Strong know BYU a religious institution and not a research university. But conference alignment no longer about professorial teaching loads, secularity, tenure requirements, and sabbatical leaves. Who cares? Not Cal Strong.

---

HoopDreams said:

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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31889328/will-texas-oklahoma-really-move-sec-answer-biggest-questions

Industry sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC's potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the first step in the formation of a single superconference, which would one day include as many as 60 teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Dame would fold into one single entity. Those schools would play each other and no one else.

Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a group of top research institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Big Ten school but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Big Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the only other Big 12 schools part of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) and the ACC (Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia). Notre Dame is not an AAU member, but the Irish are the conference's clear exception to its AAU preferences.

As one Power 5 athletic director told ESPN this past week, "The NCAA has essentially collapsed, and it just hasn't been recognized yet."

---

HoopDreams said:

---

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31889328/will-texas-oklahoma-really-move-sec-answer-biggest-questions

Industry sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC's potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the first step in the formation of a single superconference, which would one day include as many as 60 teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Dame would fold into one single entity. Those schools would play each other and no one else.

Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a group of top research institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Big Ten school but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Big Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the only other Big 12 schools part of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) and the ACC (Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia). Notre Dame is not an AAU member, but the Irish are the conference's clear exception to its AAU preferences.

As one Power 5 athletic director told ESPN this past week, "The NCAA has essentially collapsed, and it just hasn't been recognized yet."

---

calumnus said:

---

HoopDreams said:

---

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31889328/will-texas-oklahoma-really-move-sec-answer-biggest-questions

Industry sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC's potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the first step in the formation of a single superconference, which would one day include as many as 60 teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Dame would fold into one single entity. Those schools would play each other and no one else.

Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a group of top research institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Big Ten school but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Big Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the only other Big 12 schools part of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) and the ACC (Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia). Notre Dame is not an AAU member, but the Irish are the conference's clear exception to its AAU preferences.

As one Power 5 athletic director told ESPN this past week, "The NCAA has essentially collapsed, and it just hasn't been recognized yet."

---

Is Stanford not an AAU school?

---

"starting July 1, 2025." https://t.co/JlSbPj1yhE

— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoAP) July 27, 2021

calumnus said:

---

HoopDreams said:

---

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31889328/will-texas-oklahoma-really-move-sec-answer-biggest-questions

Industry sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC's potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the first step in the formation of a single superconference, which would one day include as many as 60 teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Dame would fold into one single entity. Those schools would play each other and no one else.

Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a group of top research institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Big Ten school but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Big Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the only other Big 12 schools part of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) and the ACC (Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia). Notre Dame is not an AAU member, but the Irish are the conference's clear exception to its AAU preferences.

As one Power 5 athletic director told ESPN this past week, "The NCAA has essentially collapsed, and it just hasn't been recognized yet."

---

Is Stanford not an AAU school?

---

calumnus said:

---

berserkeley said:

---

Haven't had much reason to post here in a while, but the potential end of Cal athletics has given me reason.

I only see 4 options:

1) The Pac-12 can expand.
2a) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins some new super conference.
2b) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins the likes of the MWC.
3) The Pac-12, Big Ten, and ACC form a TV and post-season partnership to shutout the SEC.

Option 1 seems impossible. There are simply no schools that would be willing to join and would provide enough revenue to justify their inclusion and help the league catch up to the Big Ten and SEC.

Option 2 seems highly probable given that USC and Oregon aren't going to stay in the Pac-12 if they can double their revenue by jumping ship. Unfortunately, Cal has to pray that its academic reputation, long history, and location are enough to justify inclusion over its lack of a major fanbase and national draw. If Rutgers could do it, why not Cal?

Option 3 would be the best outcome for all three so of course it won't happen especially given that all three have new commissioners. The SEC has allegedly reached out to Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, and Clemson so the SEC is trying to kill off all 3 conferences so even the Big Ten needs to protect itself. Right now, the three have the power through out of conference scheduling agreements and post-season championship agreements to take away all of the SEC's power. How enticing is SEC football to TV if they can only play themselves?

Of course, the option that seems by far the most likely is that Cal finds itself left out of the new college football landscape. So what happens next? Without USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, who attends Cal football games? Without all that TV money, how does Cal athletics continue to fund itself? How does Cal athletics payoff all that debt? Does Cal athletics even have a future if it gets left behind?

---

Most likely the changes contemplated are for football only. A 12 game schedule with weekend play is much easier to play long distance than the other sports. PAC-12 likely remains in place.

In the (near) worst case scenario, with Cal left behind, we become one of the football kings of the diminished PAC-12. We replace whoever left by poaching MWC teams (Maybe Hawaii, Boise and San Diego State) or B12 left overs (who might otherwise go to the MWC). Basically there is a realignment west of the Rockies.

With a diminished conference we could shoot for undefeated seasons and the playoffs or upgrade our OOC schedule, replacing patsies with USC, Oregon and SEC teams. The key for Cal football would be 1) winning and 2) maintaining Cal traditions that bring alums back to campus and 3) becoming the football brand for San Francisco, the East Bay and the North Bay. Winning is key. Alums could put up NIL money for star players especially local stars (helping to promote the brand in the process). Other players would be attracted to Cal's academics as they always have. It would not be the end of the world.

---

BearForce2 said:

---

Texas was hardly dominant in the last 10 years in the B12, I'd love to see them go 5-7 annually in the SEC.

---

berserkeley said:

---

calumnus said:

---

berserkeley said:

---

Haven't had much reason to post here in a while, but the potential end of Cal athletics has given me reason.

I only see 4 options:

1) The Pac-12 can expand.
2a) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins some new super conference.
2b) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins the likes of the MWC.
3) The Pac-12, Big Ten, and ACC form a TV and post-season partnership to shutout the SEC.

Option 1 seems impossible. There are simply no schools that would be willing to join and would provide enough revenue to justify their inclusion and help the league catch up to the Big Ten and SEC.

Option 2 seems highly probable given that USC and Oregon aren't going to stay in the Pac-12 if they can double their revenue by jumping ship. Unfortunately, Cal has to pray that its academic reputation, long history, and location are enough to justify inclusion over its lack of a major fanbase and national draw. If Rutgers could do it, why not Cal?

Option 3 would be the best outcome for all three so of course it won't happen especially given that all three have new commissioners. The SEC has allegedly reached out to Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, and Clemson so the SEC is trying to kill off all 3 conferences so even the Big Ten needs to protect itself. Right now, the three have the power through out of conference scheduling agreements and post-season championship agreements to take away all of the SEC's power. How enticing is SEC football to TV if they can only play themselves?

Of course, the option that seems by far the most likely is that Cal finds itself left out of the new college football landscape. So what happens next? Without USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, who attends Cal football games? Without all that TV money, how does Cal athletics continue to fund itself? How does Cal athletics payoff all that debt? Does Cal athletics even have a future if it gets left behind?

---

Most likely the changes contemplated are for football only. A 12 game schedule with weekend play is much easier to play long distance than the other sports. PAC-12 likely remains in place.

In the (near) worst case scenario, with Cal left behind, we become one of the football kings of the diminished PAC-12. We replace whoever left by poaching MWC teams (Maybe Hawaii, Boise and San Diego State) or B12 left overs (who might otherwise go to the MWC). Basically there is a realignment west of the Rockies.

With a diminished conference we could shoot for undefeated seasons and the playoffs or upgrade our OOC schedule, replacing patsies with USC, Oregon and SEC teams. The key for Cal football would be 1) winning and 2) maintaining Cal traditions that bring alums back to campus and 3) becoming the football brand for San Francisco, the East Bay and the North Bay. Winning is key. Alums could put up NIL money for star players especially local stars (helping to promote the brand in the process). Other players would be attracted to Cal's academics as they always have. It would not be the end of the world.

---

I'm just not sure how the finances work. The MWC pays out $5 million per year and that number is likely to drop as chatter is that college football if headed to a pro-style league that only plays its own teams. Why share the wealth? And while FCS, Div II , and Div III are still able to field teams, they don't earn $5 millions per year in TV revenue doing it and they don't have Cal's massive stadium debt. What happens when Cal can't pay its bills? I honestly don't know the process. Does the university have to assume it? Can they? Is bankruptcy an option?

---

calumnus said:

---

HoopDreams said:

---

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31889328/will-texas-oklahoma-really-move-sec-answer-biggest-questions

Industry sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC's potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the first step in the formation of a single superconference, which would one day include as many as 60 teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Dame would fold into one single entity. Those schools would play each other and no one else.

Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a group of top research institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Big Ten school but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Big Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the only other Big 12 schools part of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) and the ACC (Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia). Notre Dame is not an AAU member, but the Irish are the conference's clear exception to its AAU preferences.

As one Power 5 athletic director told ESPN this past week, "The NCAA has essentially collapsed, and it just hasn't been recognized yet."

---

Is Stanford not an AAU school?

---

Bobodeluxe said:

---

calumnus said:

---

HoopDreams said:

---

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31889328/will-texas-oklahoma-really-move-sec-answer-biggest-questions

Industry sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC's potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the first step in the formation of a single superconference, which would one day include as many as 60 teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Dame would fold into one single entity. Those schools would play each other and no one else.

Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a group of top research institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Big Ten school but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Big Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the only other Big 12 schools part of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) and the ACC (Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia). Notre Dame is not an AAU member, but the Irish are the conference's clear exception to its AAU preferences.

As one Power 5 athletic director told ESPN this past week, "The NCAA has essentially collapsed, and it just hasn't been recognized yet."

---

Is Stanford not an AAU school?

---

They wouldn't soil themselves

---

71Bear said:

---

If TX and OK join the conference, the SEC plans to increase their conference schedule to nine games.

---

Bobodeluxe said:

---

berserkeley said:

---

calumnus said:

---

berserkeley said:

---

Haven't had much reason to post here in a while, but the potential end of Cal athletics has given me reason.

I only see 4 options:

1) The Pac-12 can expand.
2a) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins some new super conference.
2b) The Pac-12 becomes the next Big XII and Cal joins the likes of the MWC.
3) The Pac-12, Big Ten, and ACC form a TV and post-season partnership to shutout the SEC.

Option 1 seems impossible. There are simply no schools that would be willing to join and would provide enough revenue to justify their inclusion and help the league catch up to the Big Ten and SEC.

Option 2 seems highly probable given that USC and Oregon aren't going to stay in the Pac-12 if they can double their revenue by jumping ship. Unfortunately, Cal has to pray that its academic reputation, long history, and location are enough to justify inclusion over its lack of a major fanbase and national draw. If Rutgers could do it, why not Cal?

Option 3 would be the best outcome for all three so of course it won't happen especially given that all three have new commissioners. The SEC has allegedly reached out to Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, and Clemson so the SEC is trying to kill off all 3 conferences so even the Big Ten needs to protect itself. Right now, the three have the power through out of conference scheduling agreements and post-season championship agreements to take away all of the SEC's power. How enticing is SEC football to TV if they can only play themselves?

Of course, the option that seems by far the most likely is that Cal finds itself left out of the new college football landscape. So what happens next? Without USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, who attends Cal football games? Without all that TV money, how does Cal athletics continue to fund itself? How does Cal athletics payoff all that debt? Does Cal athletics even have a future if it gets left behind?

---

Most likely the changes contemplated are for football only. A 12 game schedule with weekend play is much easier to play long distance than the other sports. PAC-12 likely remains in place.

In the (near) worst case scenario, with Cal left behind, we become one of the football kings of the diminished PAC-12. We replace whoever left by poaching MWC teams (Maybe Hawaii, Boise and San Diego State) or B12 left overs (who might otherwise go to the MWC). Basically there is a realignment west of the Rockies.

With a diminished conference we could shoot for undefeated seasons and the playoffs or upgrade our OOC schedule, replacing patsies with USC, Oregon and SEC teams. The key for Cal football would be 1) winning and 2) maintaining Cal traditions that bring alums back to campus and 3) becoming the football brand for San Francisco, the East Bay and the North Bay. Winning is key. Alums could put up NIL money for star players especially local stars (helping to promote the brand in the process). Other players would be attracted to Cal's academics as they always have. It would not be the end of the world.

---

I'm just not sure how the finances work. The MWC pays out $5 million per year and that number is likely to drop as chatter is that college football if headed to a pro-style league that only plays its own teams. Why share the wealth? And while FCS, Div II , and Div III are still able to field teams, they don't earn $5 millions per year in TV revenue doing it and they don't have Cal's massive stadium debt. What happens when Cal can't pay its bills? I honestly don't know the process. Does the university have to assume it? Can they? Is bankruptcy an option?

---

Convert to student housing?

Several lecture halls?

Roller Derby rink?

Campus cistern?

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Goobear said:

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ESPN, not exactly a conservative based organization being a capitalist. Oh the irony..

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League records at their new conference

A&M 42-31 (57.5%)
Pitt 36-30 (54.5)
TCU 44-37 (54.3)
Utah 45-41 (52.3)
Nebraska 43-41 (51.2)
WVU 40-40 (50.0)
Louisville 29-29 (50.0)
Mizzou 35-39 (47.3)
Syracuse 20-46 (30.3)
Maryland 16-41 (28.1)
Colorado 23-62 (27.1)
Rutgers 10-51 (16.4)

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) July 28, 2021

or any NCAA conference regarding the Big 12 conference's members, possible conference realignment or potential financial incentive or outcomes related to possible conference realignment." More soon on @YahooSports https://t.co/HHRW1ZXTPm

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) July 28, 2021