TexasAgInTheBay said:
Best part of being a recent Cal fan is that now I get to wallow in my misery and yours!
Seems like the Ags have found a QB and that we're extremely young and don't use the portal at all. Now all that is on Jimbo. I won't lie, there are some questions about the trajectory. BUT the best part of the buyout is that he won't be hastily fired. Its been a terrible season. But Jimbo will get a shot at the 12 team playoff at the very least. And I still expect us to be in it.
Auburn and Michigan State are the two luck roller coaster riding programs. Up and down Coaches get fired and hired for just "using" their luck early. Then when things return to the mean it gets bad. Harsin was hated and undermined from day 1. The Gus Bus was a good coach for many year. Beat Saban a bunch. They gotta get a better hire.
My bold hot take is that Auburn and Bama are playing their last decade as big boys. Once Saban is done, they won't be able to compete with us, texas, Georgia, or Florida consistently. They don't have the university prestige, state demographics, or money to compete in the LONG run.
Interesting thought. This next decade of college football will see tremendous change. Radical change in the market is usually not good for the current dominant firm. Saban intuitively knows that and is one of the biggest public opponents of NIL and other changes.
Alabama has benefited from a number of factors including more freely paying players than other schools but also the dominance of ESPN and cable TV and ESPN's "special" relationship with the SEC. NIL will eliminate the first advantage and the demise of cable and growth of streaming competition will reduce the second, as well as the addition of more better situated teams to the league.
Bama had a coaching advantage which they could maintain with their money advantage. Saban brought in coaches with West Cosst ties like Sark,Kiffen and Lupoi. The flow of talent reversed. Up until the early 70s, due to segregation, the SEC, with Bama as one of the last holdouts, was all white. African American players from the South went north, east or west to play, or played for HBCs. However we saw starting with Sark, Kiffen and Lupoi top players leave California to play in Tuscaloosa. Najee Harris from the East Bay as one that really hurt Cal. Lupoi, who has always recruited Polynesian players well due to being LDS and having an Italian name that sounds Tongan (and just going along with the misperception) even brought a top ranked Samoan QB from Hawaii to play QB for Alabama, something unthinkable even a decade ago. That ability to recruit the top West Coast players in addition to the usual SEC base in the South, gave Bama an advantage over their SEC competition. However, that will now devolve to the highest NIL offer.
So yes, I would short Bama stock.
Unfortunately, I would not buy Cal stock until there is a shareholder revolt to remove the current management for their malfeasance. If they remain in place the firm could be bankrupt in ten years.