philly1121 said:
But I do agree that the 4 corner schools will stay as long as they can. There is no greener pastures in the Big12. The play will be with the new media deal, its length, and what Oregon and UDub will do when they see it.
The big issue with the big 12 is the essentially perpetual exit fee as it's not tied to the GOR lenght, but lasts until the 2110's (99 years from some contract signed last big realignment). That would cost 2x yearly per team revenue to leave, or $90-100 million.
It's clear the B12 thinks they boxed the P12 out of TV money and will be appealing. But this round of contracts lasts less than a decade, so a few million dollars lost for 5-6 years is not that much compared to that exit fee. If a school has aspirations for being in a super conference (B12 certainly will never be that) OR thinks that a Pac 10/12 could regain statute (and $$$) with a market rate contract next iteration in 5-6 years (and if not, would still have a B12 opportunity), it should be really hard to commit to the B12 and basically give up.
I'm almost certain that's what CU's thinking - going to the B12 would be a huge step back, and would be an option any time in the future if things completely fall apart. Denver is not a small market (outside of Cal fans, I know more B12 and Big Ten alum... and general fans here compared to p12), and while slightly smaller than Az or Wash in total population, there is only one P5 school in state. And it's about 2x the size of Utah's market, who will have 2 P5 schools shortly. So they fit the profile of a Big Ten school for the most part and they are 1000 miles closer compared to the west coast.
The only question - and it's a big one - is whether they can commit to football and win. But I can't see them wanting to give up before even seeing what their investment in Sanders can do and what the new optimized transfer rules can do. I'm not convinced it will even work out, or last, but again they are trying.
Oregon and Washington should be thinking they can run the new p12 and get easier playoff access.
Arizona schools are 5 and 7 hours from LA as opposed to 12 and 14 from Houston and Dallas.
It's seems like a big game of chicken, but if anyone flinches everyone loses.