wifeisafurd said:
Nice to see the Pac is getting some respect in the nations polls. It still is rather early, but Utah, SC, Udub (a team Cal started the 4th quarter tied with in 2022), Oregon State are for real. Less convinced about the others, and I think UCLA, in particular, will have some growing pains with new players at key positions.
Utah and Udub seen invincible at home. Could Cal surprise SC or OSU at home, maybe. Good defense keeps you in the game. Physically this is the best defense Wilcox has had (citing Wilcox), and defense keeps you in games. Offense? Who knows? But if the offense finds it stride, Cal is capable of some upsets. Until we see Cal play with all the roster and coaching changes, it is really hard to project where Cal sits in the conference.
There are a lot of changes. The roster has been made over. There have been some losses that may hurt the team, but overall the roster is improved. Seemingly by a good measure. But the P12 as a league has seen the transfer portal put into good effect by more teams than perhaps any other conference. USC has turned over much of their previous roster over the past 2 recruiting cycles and will once again field a team that is very transfer heavy.
Oregon, ASU and UCLA scored very well also. Additionally Cal plays Auburn who really hit the portal hard and well if the rankings mean anything. Colorado of course was the major transfer participant. Cal does not play the Buffs though.
There are also coaching changes. Spavital and Bloesch simply have to make a positive difference. They will need to mold an offense around an OL that has not been strong and with inexperienced QBs. Scheme matters. I expect the offense to be better. How much and when will matter. The schedule is tough but they play 4 home games in the first 6 and one road game is against a G5 opponent that was hurt a lot by portal departures and coaching changes. Their OC is now the Cal OL coach. The first 6 games need to be 4-2 at a minimum and better yet 5-1. Possible. Only UW away looks out of reach to me. If they head into the 2nd half at 3-3 or worse the optimism will fade and another losing season would be likely.
The defense looks pretty good. I expect the scheme to be a bit different. An increased emphasis on TFLs and utilizing the athletes to make plays rather than the bend but don't break we have seen. The DBs will be key here. They simply have to be able to cover well enough for the new more aggresive scheme I expect to be effective. The defense will be looking to make plays over limiting chunk plays and hoping for errors by the other team. It will be tough as USC, UW, UO have proven terrific QBs and WRs. And the P12 is generally a very strong offensive conference But Cal has good DBs, so finding a pass rush will be very important.
But the roster is better. QB play and improvement along the OL will really matter. Injuries are always a factor. But Cal has better depth now than in any of the previous Wilcox seasons. But some players are rather irreplaceable. Like Jaydn Ott. He has the ability to really impact the offense. He is a home run threat with the ball and an excellent pass receiver. There are some nice backs behind him but nobody that is of similar impact. And the depth at OL looks suspect.
I think in many ways we know less about this team than any Wilcox team since his first season. It will be interesting to watch the team as they transition from the ball control, slower paced offense of past seasons to a faster paced spread style team. And can they move away from the risk averse defense that was predictable to a more aggressive style that looks to make plays.
There are some pieces on this team. But it is inexperienced at the most crucial position and the league is strong. Jackson has to be good. He will need to be a playmaker. As will Ott, Hunter and Anderson. If the defense plays as hoped they may suprise some. But the away schedule likely limits the upside. They can make a bowl. 7 wins is possible. More seems a big strecth to me. But they could go 4-8 and 5-7 if the inexperience at QB rears its head and there are injuries at OL again and to impact offensive players like Ott or Hunter.
This team is unknown IMO. But will be consistently be knocked for what we have seen in previous seasons. I believe this team will look different in style and scheme. Will it matter? Maybe. Hopefully. It needs to.
