ACC is going to implode sooner or later. Seems like the GOR lock-in will get terminated/bought out in one way or another.

So right now the 4 remaining PAC teams should partner with or form some sort of 8-team alliance with the best of the rest:

Cal
Stanford
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU
SMU
UNLV (for the vegas market)
1 out of Boise, Fresno, or Air Force

Assumimg SEC will take 4 teams from the ACC, and Big 10 grabs 2, to each form 20-team super conferences.

So SEC take FSU, Clemson, and probably Miami and Georgia Tech.

Big 10 take UNC and Virginia.

Now we merge with the rest of the ACC to form the Pacific-Atlantic Coastal Conference (PACC).

The 8 teams mentioned above would be the Pacific Division, plus the following in the Atlantic Division:

Boston College
Virginia Tech
NC State
Louisville
Syracuse
Duke
Pitt
Wake Forest


This 16-team conference is arguably equal or even better than the Big 12, and will make more money in media rights due to population centers on the coasts + dallas, is a good fit culturally, academic standards are high, and no issues with travel as a majority of games would be played within the division (traveling cross country 1-2 times a year).

Thoughts?

aceman said:

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ACC is going to implode sooner or later. Seems like the GOR lock-in will get terminated/bought out in one way or another.

So right now the 4 remaining PAC teams should partner with or form some sort of 8-team alliance with the best of the rest:

Cal
Stanford
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU
SMU
UNLV (for the vegas market)
1 out of Boise, Fresno, or Air Force

Assumimg SEC will take 4 teams from the ACC, and Big 10 grabs 2, to each form 20-team super conferences.

So SEC take FSU, Clemson, and probably Miami and Georgia Tech.

Big 10 take UNC and Virginia.

Now we merge with the rest of the ACC to form the Pacific-Atlantic Coastal Conference (PACC).

The 8 teams mentioned above would be the Pacific Division, plus the following in the Atlantic Division:

Boston College
Virginia Tech
NC State
Louisville
Syracuse
Duke
Pitt
Wake Forest


This 16-team conference is arguably equal or even better than the Big 12, and will make more money in media rights due to population centers on the coasts + dallas, is a good fit culturally, academic standards are high, and no issues with travel as a majority of games would be played within the division (traveling cross country 1-2 times a year).

Thoughts?

---

I don't see the ACC imploding anytime soon. Sure, FSU lawyers might think they have a loophole, but that would be litigated with the ACC seeking and likely receiving an injunction on any move until the judge decides.

However, the ACC wants to keep its malcontents mollified. The only way to do that is with additional revenue. Either renegotiate the media contract with ESPN or add an additional media partner like Apple.

That is where the PAC-4 (or just Cal and Stanford) can be helpful. By adding new teams with games on the West Coast, the ACC increases its content and the time slots they can be broadcast in. ESPN should want that content, and want to keep Apple out.

When the litigation is decided or the GORs expire, the PACC may become a conference like you suggest, or Cal and Stanford may join the B1G.

The point being, I agree with you, there is some synergy with the ACC that we should pursue while pushing fit B1G membership.

It not the worst idea, but the first step has a major problem. How does Cal, Stanford, Ore St. and Wash St. combine with the other four schools you mentioned? The exit fees from the MWC are cost prohibitive (I think $34 million each, which would far exceed the expected media deal).

I see talk about a full merger between the "Pac-4" and the MWC, but that doesn't sound like a great option, and I have no idea how it would pencil given Cal's budget. And it wouldn't necessarily facilitate the second half of your concept if/when the ACC breaks apart.

While I wish it weren't the case, I keep coming back to the conclusion that Cal can afford to keep its program only if it gets an invite to one of the major conferences: B1G, SEC, ACC, Big-12. Right now, only the B1G seems like it has any real possibility, though I suppose that could change.

Alternatively, someone would need to step up with an $8-figure check to fund the department so Cal could experiment with an independent status for a few years until things start moving again. But that seems like a pipe dream.

Cal football just has to make it til 2034 when schools will start to break away from the ACC.

One that happens, there will be roughly ~34 schools in or previously in the P12, ACC, and B12 not in the B1G or SEC.

And the top 10 of those schools will break away to create a new league, guaranteed. Because I don't care what you say, a B12 with BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Houston, and even TCU won't compete long term. Neither an ACC with the likes of Syracuse, Wake Forest, GTech, or Boston College.

The gap between the ACC/B12 and the top two leagues will continue to grow, so a new conference will be created.

Vtech, NC State, Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Utah and a few others. Cal will be a part of that,

zorbarick said:

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It not the worst idea, but the first step has a major problem. How does Cal, Stanford, Ore St. and Wash St. combine with the other four schools you mentioned? The exit fees from the MWC are cost prohibitive (I think $34 million each, which would far exceed the expected media deal).

I see talk about a full merger between the "Pac-4" and the MWC, but that doesn't sound like a great option, and I have no idea how it would pencil given Cal's budget. And it wouldn't necessarily facilitate the second half of your concept if/when the ACC breaks apart.

While I wish it weren't the case, I keep coming back to the conclusion that Cal can afford to keep its program only if it gets an invite to one of the major conferences: B1G, SEC, ACC, Big-12. Right now, only the B1G seems like it has any real possibility, though I suppose that could change.

Alternatively, someone would need to step up with an $8-figure check to fund the department so Cal could experiment with an independent status for a few years until things start moving again. But that seems like a pipe dream.

---

The PAC-4 in the ACC works fine for football. 9 conference games, 3 against the other West Coast schools. So 6 games against current ACC schools means only three road trips to the East Coast. One each month. If the OOC games are against West Coast schools then that is really not a lot of travel.

Basketball is tougher. I think the best solution initially would be to be in the ACC for football only (opposite of Notre Dame) and put our other sports in the Big West, but play a lot of ACC teams as OOC games.

zorbarick said:

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It not the worst idea, but the first step has a major problem. How does Cal, Stanford, Ore St. and Wash St. combine with the other four schools you mentioned? The exit fees from the MWC are cost prohibitive (I think $34 million each, which would far exceed the expected media deal).

I see talk about a full merger between the "Pac-4" and the MWC, but that doesn't sound like a great option, and I have no idea how it would pencil given Cal's budget. And it wouldn't necessarily facilitate the second half of your concept if/when the ACC breaks apart.

While I wish it weren't the case, I keep coming back to the conclusion that Cal can afford to keep its program only if it gets an invite to one of the major conferences: B1G, SEC, ACC, Big-12. Right now, only the B1G seems like it has any real possibility, though I suppose that could change.

Alternatively, someone would need to step up with an $8-figure check to fund the department so Cal could experiment with an independent status for a few years until things start moving again. But that seems like a pipe dream.

---

No one's doing that until the new chancellor picks the new AD. Then, we'll see. In the meantime, we give each game to the highest bidder.

I wonder if Cal could make it as Independent for a few years while waiting for this implosion. Maybe schedule nonconference games with the best of former pac 12 members. Plus some big ten and acc. Get paid for road trips.

Independent would be hard to pull off for 2024, especially if Stanford also goes independent. Over 90% of FBS 2024 OOC dates have already been booked (including all 12 Notre Dame games). The MWC has 45/48 2024 OOC games booked. 100% of Sun Belt OOC games have been booked.

Some of the remaining schools with open OOC dates will not book us because we would require the game to be played at a time of year that's in the middle of their conference schedule. If we managed to pull it off I wouldn't be surprised if we had to offer sweeteners like one-way trips or payments to buy out of OOC dates. It would be a motley schedule, though probably better than a MWC conference slate.

2025 and beyond is easier to schedule provided we're willing to eat a bunch of OOC buyouts in the event that we get scooped up by a power conference.

How much we could get for our media rights as an independent is another question. I assume we would have to go streaming with Apple or Amazon but I have no idea how much we could get from them if they were even interested. Would it even be more than what Boise St gets in the MWC? And they get their games broadcast on national TV networks.

aceman said:

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ACC is going to implode sooner or later. Seems like the GOR lock-in will get terminated/bought out in one way or another.

So right now the 4 remaining PAC teams should partner with or form some sort of 8-team alliance with the best of the rest:

Cal
Stanford
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU
SMU
UNLV (for the vegas market)
1 out of Boise, Fresno, or Air Force

Assumimg SEC will take 4 teams from the ACC, and Big 10 grabs 2, to each form 20-team super conferences.

So SEC take FSU, Clemson, and probably Miami and Georgia Tech.

Big 10 take UNC and Virginia.

Now we merge with the rest of the ACC to form the Pacific-Atlantic Coastal Conference (PACC).

The 8 teams mentioned above would be the Pacific Division, plus the following in the Atlantic Division:

Boston College
Virginia Tech
NC State
Louisville
Syracuse
Duke
Pitt
Wake Forest


This 16-team conference is arguably equal or even better than the Big 12, and will make more money in media rights due to population centers on the coasts + dallas, is a good fit culturally, academic standards are high, and no issues with travel as a majority of games would be played within the division (traveling cross country 1-2 times a year).

Thoughts?

---

You still run into the problem of having TV contracts that are simply not as valuable as they were 2 years ago.

It may be a decent conference, but that doesnt mean you are going to get a good TV deal.

Here's one thought I have at this point.

The Big 10 currently has 18 teams: 4 west (USC, UCLA, UO, UW), 3 east (Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers), and 11 midwest. It just doesn't feel like they are done to me, and if I think about a long-term vision, one attractive option would be to expand to 24 teams: 6 west, 6 east and 12 midwest. That would give you an attractive national footprint with four travel-friendly 6-team divisions. For football, each team could play their 5 division-mates every year, and then rotate through the other divisions for three or four games per year. There's still a fair amount of travel involved, but it would be way better than the current 18-team structure, or any other construct that only has 4 western teams.

IMO, Cal and Stanfurd would be a logical option to fill the 2 west spots, with the rest likely coming from the ACC, maybe UNC, UVA and one of BC/NC State/Syracuse for the east, and then ideally ND (if they'll come), or maybe one of Louisville/Pitt/VT as the last midwest spot if ND can't be convinced to join.

In that scenario, there really isn't much of a rush for the Big 10 to try to fill this out until the ACC picture becomes clearer. And now that Oregon/Washington have been added at reduced revenue shares, the Big 10 has a ton of leverage to fill out the last spots at reduced revenue shares as well. The Big 10 could add OSU and WSU in the west instead of Cal / Stanfurd, with lots of other options or combinations in the east / midwest possible. My guess is that the Big 10 will explore lots of options, looking for the best combination of media attractiveness and willingness to take a lower share, basically getting the candidate schools to bid against each other for the best deal possible for the legacy teams.

I agree that B1G will look to add Cal/Furd under the timeline that you describe so to me that makes merging with the MWC under the PAC 12 branding and inking a reduced deal with Apple with a 3 year out as the most attractive option. This gives us near term financial stability without long term commitment and it gives our program and fans a chance to prove our worth to increase our future options. We are a few good years of new PacMwc dominance from having lots of choices.

All the talking heads are acknowledging that the teams are being shuffled around at this stage by football prowess. Why are we pretending that it is about academic reputation?

Stabilize football first so that athletics at Cal is saved and give the admin, coach and fans a few years to show what we can do with a complete understanding of what the stakes are and what commitments are required to get the job done.

Actually, I'm not sure what the timeline for the Big 10 will look like, other than I think they may be more focused on what is happening with the ACC in the near-term. If the ACC stays intact for now, I could see them waiting before adding additional western schools, but I could also see a scenario where the ACC situation accelerates quickly like the Pac-12 did, and there could be another scramble that ensues in a matter of weeks, or even days.

evanluck said:

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I agree that B1G will look to add Cal/Furd under the timeline that you describe so to me that makes merging with the MWC under the PAC 12 branding and inking a reduced deal with Apple with a 3 year out as the most attractive option. This gives us near term financial stability without long term commitment and it gives our program and fans a chance to prove our worth to increase our future options. We are a few good years of new PacMwc dominance from having lots of choices.

All the talking heads are acknowledging that the teams are being shuffled around at this stage by football prowess. Why are we pretending that it is about academic reputation.

Stabilize football first so that athletics at Cal is saved and give the admin, coach and fans a few to show what we can do with a complete understanding of what the stakes are and what commitments are required to get the job done.

---

This makes the most sense. Near term and long term.

alstreamer said:

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Cal football just has to make it til 2034 when schools will start to break away from the ACC.

One that happens, there will be roughly ~34 schools in or previously in the P12, ACC, and B12 not in the B1G or SEC.

And the top 10 of those schools will break away to create a new league, guaranteed. Because I don't care what you say, a B12 with BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Houston, and even TCU won't compete long term. Neither an ACC with the likes of Syracuse, Wake Forest, GTech, or Boston College.

The gap between the ACC/B12 and the top two leagues will continue to grow, so a new conference will be created.

Vtech, NC State, Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Utah and a few others. Cal will be a part of that,

---

We got until 2048 until the White Spikes appear.

Supposedly 8/15 is a deadline date to watch based on how the ACC bylaws are written.

But it also seems that FSU trying to get out of the GOR is a royal pain, have mention the rumors of 7 (or 8?) teams wanting out and that could be enough votes to disband. 4 teams to the Big Ten and 4 to the SEC would do it. And give some anti trust cover since it's to different networks and conferences.

The remaining 6 would be in a world of hurt.

evanluck said:

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I agree that B1G will look to add Cal/Furd under the timeline that you describe so to me that makes merging with the MWC under the PAC 12 branding and inking a reduced deal with Apple with a 3 year out as the most attractive option. This gives us near term financial stability without long term commitment and it gives our program and fans a chance to prove our worth to increase our future options. We are a few good years of new PacMwc dominance from having lots of choices.

All the talking heads are acknowledging that the teams are being shuffled around at this stage by football prowess. Why are we pretending that it is about academic reputation.

Stabilize football first so that athletics at Cal is saved and give the admin, coach and fans a few to show what we can do with a complete understanding of what the stakes are and what commitments are required to get the job done.

---

But if 6 in the West is your endgame, and 20 is better than 18, mitigates travel issues, especially for the non-revenue sports, why not just add Cal and Stanford now, while they are desperate, before they find another home and sign away their GORs? That is an independent decision from whatever happens to the ACC?

In fact, it is not independent because one PAC-4 option may be to join up with the ACC and negotiate more money for the combination, maybe bringing the $420 million we now control and Apple to the party? That helps keep the ACC together for ten more years AND blocks the B1G's Eastern AND Western expansion. Assuming we get voting shares in the PACC, we now have even more leverage, we only vote to dissolve the PACC if we get into the B1G at something more than the PACC, something closer to full B1G.

Thus the B1G's best strategy is to make an offer to Cal and Stanford quickly, while we are in panick mode, before we develop the PACC option.

Cal (and Stanford) should work for and take a B1G offer, but begin working with the ACC and Notre Dame to develop an option there, because THAT is the power move, not buying out MWC teams or merging with the MWC. That is plan C or D, it is our fallback option.

The ACC option has less interest on their side and more variables and moving parts plus it potentially commits us for a decade.

We can hypothesize about why the B1G does not want to add Cal/Furd now but they clearly don't or we would have gone with Washington/Oregon.

The problem right now is that the programs are being moved around by reputation and perceived value. This is a game that we have not played well even during our peak with Tedford.

The other problem is our position seems to be passive not offering leadership towards available best options in an attempt to keep perceived better options open.

We should strive to be in a position where we can express our value using objective analytics. Put together a few good seasons and have our fans express their support by subscribing to Apple's PACX offering. This is something we could sell to our large but recently disengaged worldwide alumni community.

We should be looking for a scenario that allows us to show who we are under objective performance criteria not pining
For an acknowledgment of a reputation as a football program that we haven't done the work to earn.

As a Cal community we can do this!

Aren't there football leagues in Europe we can form alliances with? I mean if you're going to embrace "travel," why stop at one continent???

I'd LOVE to see Cal take on the University of Munich football team in the Fall. Football and Oktoberfest, what a bonanza!!!

(Yes, I know Europe doesn't do college sports. Just spitballing!)

Lots of ideas. No reporting. Does anyone have any sources? Any actual news about what is being considered/planned/negotiated by Cal and the other three left in the lurch schools? This is all driving me nuts!

ColoradoBear said:

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Supposedly 8/15 is a deadline date to watch based on how the ACC bylaws are written.

But it also seems that FSU trying to get out of the GOR is a royal pain, have mention the rumors of 7 (or 8?) teams wanting out and that could be enough votes to disband. 4 teams to the Big Ten and 4 to the SEC would do it. And give some anti trust cover since it's to different networks and conferences.

The remaining 6 would be in a world of hurt.

---

I doubt there are 8 ACC teams that would be invited into either the Big Ten or SEC. Even if you include Notre Dame.

If a school thinks they might be in line for one of four Big Ten invitations, but it turns out the Big Ten adds only two more, and now they're left in the wreckage of a broken conference ...

That could happen, right? Sounds familiar, doesn't it? Would you advise, say, Georgia Tech or NC State to vote to put the ACC in the same Anyone-Can-Leave-Now position the Pac-12 was in?